In a nutshell, your response is what's wrong with Jets boards. You think you are reading between the lines of what I said, use hyperbole and go way beyond what I said/meant. It's sad and pathetic that some of you guys are so insecure and have such small dicks, that you have to act like a dick on a Jets' discussion list to try to compensate.
For the record, I wasn't using them as "proof" of anything, just an example that there are trade-offs or consequences. The way the NFL is set up now teams can't stay dominant for a long period of time. Due to the cap and draft position, there is a limited window for the top teams. Eventually, as contracts expire too many of their players become too expensive to keep them all and they lose some in FA, others retire, and because of their drafting at the bottom of each round, they miss out on the players that could keep them at the top. I have seen the statistics that show that it's easier for a 3-13 team to become an elite team and contender for the SB than it is an 8-8 or 9-7 team. Believe what you want. It doesn't make a rat's ass difference to me.
Yes, the Jags and Raiders probably do have to overpay to get FAs, just as the Jets once did (see Calvin Pace and others). The Jets now are different. If things had gone South this year, then we might have been back in the same boat as those two teams, but thank God we're not.
I didn't say that Idzik is stupid. I like him. I was just citing the Jets as an example of what can happen. While I like most of the moves of Idzik so far, and he seems too "grown up," intelligent, experienced in the ways of the NFL, etc. to make a dumb decision like that, we just don't know what he'll do during the offseason. He could get excited thinking that with a big FA signing or two and making a big splash in the draft to get 2-3 great players with those 12 picks that it could put the team in serious contention next season. Now, based on everything I've seen from him so far, I can't see that happening, but it's possible, just as the chances of "anything could happen" in the playoffs is possible.
Until he proves otherwise, I'll trust in Idzik too, but there's only so much he can control. I'm also enjoying the victories. I've just seen for most of my life that if something could backfire or go wrong with the Jets, it usually does. All too often it has looked like they were turning a corner or finally making the right decision on something and it all turned to crap. I've said all along that regardless of what else happens this year, finding out whether Geno is the answer at QB is THE most important thing for the Jets.
Thanks. I understand where you're coming from, and in general agree with that approach. It's just that Johnson is such a special player and he could speed the timetable up for the Jets significantly and be huge in helping Geno develop. The thing is that with drafted WRs, it's not at all uncommon for them to take at least a year, if not 2-3 years to develop fully. Think of what it would be like if the Jets signed Johnson AND traded up or somehow got an elite WR in the draft. Think of what that player could learn from Johnson, and with Johnson at #1, that other player wouldn't have the pressure to contribute immediately. He could either play the #2 spot until Johnson retired, then slide into the #1 spot, of if he needed some work on route running or other fundamentals could even sit for part of the season without controversy or pressure.
We're in total agreement on your first two points. My opinion has recently changed on #1. At the beginning of this season, I thought he probably should be fired. Even so, I don't think he should get a long extension unless the Jets do somehow not only make the playoffs, but win a couple of playoff games.
I'm not sure if #3 is valid on either of your first two points. Many, perhaps most, players go where they're offered the most money, period. Precious few players will go someplace for less because they like the HC or think they'll have a chance to win the SB. I totally agree with you regarding Idzik.
The odds of "anything" happening in the playoffs are slim. That's going on "hope" rather than likelikhood or reality. I prefer reality rather than a hope and prayer. I think there not only can be negatives to winning more games, but there are. The Jets are the perfect example. When the Jets went to the AFC Championship Game in 2009 and 2010, Tanny took that as a sign that the Jets were only a player or two away from winning it all. He overestimated the talent on the team and at the same time jettisoned some of their veteran leadership, and started bringing in players of lesser character/leadership and disrupted the team chemistry. In those two cases, winning definitely hurt the Jets.
There's a big difference between the 13th pick and the 23rd pick or later. Geno falling to #39 is a big bit of luck coupled with stupidity of other GMs. If you're again right about Idzik finding talent no matter where the Jets draft, fine, then I can relax and won't have anything to worry about. I hope that you're right. It's just that the Jets haven't had a GM that could do that in a long, LONG time (since the early-to-mid '80s at least, and some may say even the mid '60s).
Either way,we both want the same thing, just have different ideas about how to get there. I don't care how long we get there, and I'd be perfectly happy to eat crow and be wrong. In fact, I'd rather get there the way flgreen and you advocate, I just haven't seen that happen with the Jets.
Perhaps we do. I want the Jets to win a SB...nothing else really matters to me. Slight improvements, in all likelihood, won't lead to a SB victory. I don't care about just being competitive. They play the game to win the SB, not to just try to squeak into the playoffs and hope they get lucky/hot.
I find it hard to believe that any fan would rather squeak into the playoffs and hope they get lucky/hot and win rather than have a much greater chance/likelihood of not only making the playoffs, but going deep into the playoffs just a year later. That type of logic doesn't make any sense to me, but hey, different strokes for different folks. No one said we had to agree or think alike. That's what makes the world go around.
For what it's worth, I have nothing against Reed and am excited/curious to see what he can bring to the team. If he can help the Jets get hot and make a run in the playoffs, great. There are different ways to get to where we all want them to go (the SB). As long as adding Reed doesn't hurt them in the draft and prevent them from taking the next step forward next year, then fine. As you say, Reed is here, so we all have to hope that his coming to the team only pays dividends and doesn't hurt somehow.
How are the two teams you cite, Baltimore and PIttsburgh doing this year, and why are they doing so poorly? They have major holes in their rosters and key positions because they have done so well for so long and missed out on players. I could be mistaken, but I don't think they've drafted a lot of busts.
Yes, talent can be found in all rounds and even as UDFAs and high picks do bust, but the chances of finding the right players are much better drafting high than drafting lower. Teams have a lot more players to choose from. I think that's one reason why some teams wind up reaching or paying to much to trade up. They get desperate. How many years has it been since the Jets were in the position to get a true franchise QB or stud pass-rushing OLB because their teams won just enough games to move them out of position to get those types? They've also had some bad luck and made some bad choices to be sure.
I'm not convinced that Idzik will trade up often if at all. He seems a more conservative, stay put and take the BPA type to me.
I probably would have, because we all knew that the team was severely flawed and we saw what happened when Tanny went "all in" to try to win. I'm not saying that by this signing that Idzik went "all in", but as I said earlier I'm just worried that this might cause them to miss out on the WR we all want in the draft.
Yes, it's possible the Jets could win the SB, but about as likely as my being able to make love to any one of a myriad of beautiful models or actresses tonight.
I understand and respect your position, and when I was younger, would probably have thought the same way myself.
We've already seen that unless the available FAs at WR and TE don't change dramatically that there are no real difference makers there that the Jets are probably able to sign. You won't care if making the playoffs prevents the Jets from being able to upgrade the WR or TE positions?
Even if the team doesn't make the playoffs, it still has been a very successful season. It won't take away one bit from the accomplishments that Rex and the team have earned.
Obviously, I have nothing against the Jets making the playoffs. It will be fun and exciting if they do. I just don't want that to hurt or distract them from their plan for building the team long term. I want to see the Jets have a realistic chance of winning the SB by 2015 or 2016. In order to do that, they have to get a real #1 WR and upgrade their "weapons" on offense, plus address some of their other holes. If they can do both, great. I'm just worried because I've seen the Jets and too many other teams get mired in mediocrity because they win just enough to prevent them from getting the players they need to go to the next level, and teams with worse records wind up leap-frogging those mediocre teams because they are able to get that great talent in the draft that elevates them.
Do you seriously think the Jets have a realistic chance to win the SB this year? I don't. I don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell of even getting to the AFC Championship Game, much less to or winning the SB this year. Their OLBs stink. Their WRs and TEs are below average. Their CB play has been pretty dreadful. Even with Reed, their Safety play will still probably be below average. Geno hasn't shown that he can cut down on the TOs. Rex hasn't shown that he won't go into an ultra-conservative "Ground and Pound" mode to play it safe the rest of the season. If he does, they won't truly find out what they need to learn about Geno and it will curtail/hinder Geno's development, and that could definitely hurt their chances of winning big in 2014. I'm not saying that I think the Jets can win the SB next year if they get a stud WR prospect in the draft, but it sure won't hurt their chances unless he winds up being a bust. We all know that they need a major upgrade at WR before their chances of getting to and winning the SB are realistic. I just don't think it's realistic at all to think if they can sneak into the playoffs this year that they can go on some kind of miraculous hot streak. It's just wishful thinking. IMO winning another game or two this season isn't worth the risk of missing out on the players they might be able to add in next year's draft. It's been an exciting year, a better than expected year, and a lot of the young players have given us a lot of reason for realistic hope for the future.
Besides, the playoff expectations could dramatically change the way Rex has the team play from here on out that could have a negative impact on the way the youngsters continue to develop.
I'm curious why you wouldn't want Andre Johnson. Great player. Great character and citizen. Still young enough that he could play 4-5 more years. He could help the Jets win a SB or two in that time. It is looking like the chances for the Jets to get a great WR prospect in next year's draft are fading rapidly. Do you really want to go into 2014 with the same WRs as this year (less Holmes)?
Why the hyperbole? The playoffs is exciting, sure, but it's short term gratification, because there's little possibility that they would play more than one game and then be out. If you knew for certain that the Jets would make the playoffs and then be one and done, and as a result, know for certain that they would not get a stud WR or TE in next year's draft, and the FAs that are listed now don't change, would you do it? I wouldn't. Of course there are no certainties, but the odds would definitely be against the Jets getting a topflight WR or TE prospect in next year's draft if they make the playoffs. We all know that the offense needs playmakers. If they can't add any of consequence during either the draft or FA and the team is stuck with the same "weapons" as this year, would you be happy? I wouldn't, and things would be little different or better than this year. Their prospects for getting to and winning a SB would be even less, because other teams will get the players that could have helped put the Jets over the top. So in effect, you're trading an extra game, maybe two this year with no realistic chance at winning the Lombardi Trophy for what could be a very real shot at getting to and winning the SB in 2014 or 2015. IMO, that's not a good trade.