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About DMan77

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  • Where you alive for Super Bowl III?

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  1. Right-o... Some how shedding aging "star" players has become synonymous with tanking too. They cut a couple 33+ year old WRs on the decline?! They're giving up everything!
  2. Realistic 2018 starting QB

    If this happens I expect the Jets to trade down. But I think there will be a couple other viable QBs they could take even at that point.
  3. I don't know... I think draft talent is so unknown that tanking isn't any kind of guarantee. Lots of people want it to be a simple math problem... Tank + 1st round pick = Success... But we all know it's not that simple... It depends on the players, the year, the overall team itself... I just don't know if it's so much of an advantage for a team to try and tank or rebuild that it requires a rule change... Teams are going to do it, because their odds of getting better increase... But are they really so much better that the system needs to change? Eh... Not sure.
  4. Deep Thoughts

    Seems to happen a lot around here.
  5. Deep Thoughts

    He had a hell of a game out there in London, but you're right. One thing he did in that game was toss a lot of deep balls. They were mostly 'touch' passes. He really floated them up there to his guys. I mean they were pretty passes for sure, but that's a dangerous way to live for a QB like him. If he comes out with that strategy against the Jets I'm not sure it'll work again. I think our safeties can take some of those over the top passes away... And when Bortles has to start making mid-level throws that's when he get's in trouble and can make mistakes.
  6. Deep Thoughts

    The run defense was the biggest thing that jumped out to me. They were right where they needed to be, unlike the last couple of weeks when guys like Lee were left on their own against guys twice his size and asked to clog the gap... Last week I didn't see that! Lee was all over the field and was able to do what he did best: run guys down; while our other guys on the line closed the lanes and blocked. It was really good. Just the way you draw it up... So I hope you're right! It'll be interesting to see how it plays out and if they've finally found the lineup/strategy that works, or if someone blows by them like the first 2 games... There's reason to believe they found something that works. There's talent up there. It should be their top strength.
  7. Hm. Well I see what you're saying and I won't argue with your theoretical assumptions because it's always a possibility... But I do think it's a little bit of a stretch.. In 2006 Vince Young, and Matt Lienart were drafted in front of Cutler... So I deel like if someone traded up the odds are greater that they would have snagged one of them and not Cutler. In 2004 you had Manning and Rivers go before. It's possible though. Frankly I don't know enough about the CBA or remember those drafts enough to recall team's needs and who tried to trade what and such... But it's too much of a "what if" for my own conclusions here.
  8. It would be interesting to see if the number of 1st round starting QBs has been growing over the last decade, or if it fluctuates year to year... I mean since we're dealing with human beings I would image that number probably jumps around a bit... But it would be interesting if the trend towards 1st round starters continues, to your point.
  9. For my own thoughts I was looking not just at the ones that were taken, but the ones that were taken that I would want as my franchise guy... In other words, would it be worth the tank job for Smith? Or Bradford? Or Bortles?, etc. That's what I tried to count. So yes you're absolutely right with your figures, but I tried to take it a step further into the realm of who is a 'franchise' guy?
  10. I went a bit crazy here. But hey, it's a slow day. I wanted to put some numbers and figures together for myself because I have a tough time figuring out the bigger picture when it comes to QBs, where they were found, and how teams get their franchis guy... Especially with all the talk of tanking and needing the 1st pick, I wanted to take a look to see just what having the fist, or a top 10 pick would get you. So after doing that work I figured I'd just share it. Couple of disclaimers… 1: Not every draft class is created equal. We all know that the QB talent fluctuates. I’m not looking to make any broad statement that every class is the same and can be viewed through the same lens. 2: I did not include recent busts (RG3, Manuel, Manziel) or guys who injured themselves out of the league. Not because they aren’t relevant. They are. But I wanted a look at guys who are starting currently, and where they came from. Adding those guys in would change the numbers, of course. 3. I didn't go back a particular number of years. I mostly just went with who is in the league. So that variable is skewed. 4. These are incomplete analytics. They’re numbers about human beings, in a really wavy set of perimeters, so they’re not absolute truths. I also know that these are not scientifically accurate figures. I'm not FiveThirtyEight here. I just pieced some things together based off my own random variables. Observations… 1. The current average draft spot for a starting QB is just about round 2. (Comes to 1.9, so call it the bottom of the 1st if you’d like). 2. The average pick would be pick 42. This doesn’t count the undrafted Hoyer. This is of course skewed by a few really low picks that worked out. 3. Finding a QB is tough job. Now the hard part… My own thoughts… They’re just numbers to ponder. I’ll first look at the 15 QBs taken prior to the 10th pick of the 1st round… - Of those, I would be happy with somewhere around 10-12 of them. Obviously there’s room for discussion. Guys like Goff, Wentz, and maybe even Tannehill are up for debate or 'incomplete'. Everyone will have a different number here. (I also realize that just about everyone on this list is better than what the Jets have, but I'm approaching this not from the standpoint of "who would be better?", but rather "who would I want (or have wanted) back there for 10 years?") - Of the 6 players taken in the first round after the 10th pick, I would be happy with 3-4 of them. Again, up to debate… - And finally of the players taken after the 10th pick until the end of the draft, I’d take 10-12 of those. So what does this all mean? Probably not much of anything really. You can find a QB in the later rounds. That’s not exactly a news flash. There are some really strong QBs that can be landed without the top 1/2/3 picks… But again, not everything is equal here. I think it’s interesting though when you look at where franchises found their QB, and what it means for how we watch the Jets this year. You can argue that 12+ teams found their franchise signal caller by making sure they had that top 1/2/3 pick… But you can also argue that nearly as many found one after that point. Again I want to make sure I make it clear that this is just me sharing numbers. I'm not trying to argue anything one way or another... It's just something to look at to make your own observations, if you'd like. Team Round Pick Name Bucs 1 1 Winston Cards 1 1 Palmer Chiefs 1 1 Smith Colts 1 1 Luck Giants 1 1 Manning Lions 1 1 Stanford Panthers 1 1 Newton Rams 1 1 Goff Vikings (2) 1 1 Bradford Eagles 1 2 Wentz Titans 1 2 Mariota Falcons 1 3 Ryan Jags 1 3 Bortles Chargers 1 4 Rivers Dolphins (2) 1 9 Tannehill Dolphins 1 11 Cutler Steelers 1 11 Roethlisberger Texans 1 12 Watson Ravens 1 18 Flacco Packers 1 24 Rodgers Vikings 1 32 Bridgewater Saints 2 32 Brees Bengals 2 35 Dalton Raiders 2 36 Carr Browns 2 52 Kizer Bears 3 73 Glennon Seahwaks 3 75 Wilson Jets 3 81 McCown Redskins 4 102 Cousins Cowboys 4 135 Prescott Bills 6 180 Taylor Pats 6 199 Brady Bronocs 7 250 Siemian 49ers NA NA Hoyer
  11. There's a HUGE difference...

    Sure, probably, and that's fine... But there's still development going on out there. The Jets have some promising guys on the team already even though people don't want that. They're bad, and they're going to lose a lot of games this year. But they might click like they did in Miami and steal a few. And I'm ok with that.
  12. There's a HUGE difference...

    You can't predict the future. You have no way of knowing that. It's what you believe, so that's cool, but you're acting like it's a guarantee that a top pick changed the Jet's future prospects. And it's not. It also wasn't a relic at QB that held the Dolphins to 1.5 yards per rush and 70 rushing total. They held them to 225 yards total, with 76 of that coming in garbage time at the end of the game. It's easy to ignore the positives if you really want to, but they at least flashed this week if people like it or not. And I'm happy about that.
  13. Maccnificent

    Not really trying to 'win' anything. I don't come here to try and change people's minds. I think he's gotten better at what he does. Not excellent, but better. I think he dropped the ball on trying to build a winning team from the shell we had left those last couple of years. But I also think he has the ability to work on this rebuild. I'd like to see what else he can do. I think keeping the same guy and the same generals and front office is the way to go. I think it's more benefical for a franchise to do that instead of moving on every few years and hopping somebody else hits on a QB. That's all!
  14. Naps

    Maybe I should start a newsletter.... Hah
  15. Maccnificent

    Ya, that's fine. I just disagree. I think he's gotten better and I liked the last couple drafts on-top of his last few moves this offseason. I think he's going to be fine, and I'd rather stick with the stability to find out instead of throwing someone new in there and starting all over again with a new plan.