derp

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About derp

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  • Birthday 02/22/1989
  1. I think medical question marks and guys who do stuff the NFL may or may not value are the best candidates. Hooker, Davis, and to a lesser extent Lattimore jump to mind on medicals. Fournette, Allen, and to an extent Adams could slip a little too IMO but in all of those cases it just takes one team so it's tough to predict. Foster definitely looks primed for a slide. Cook too.
  2. I think there are 8-10 TE's this draft who would start day one. Minimal competition.
  3. Would be very surprised if Shaheen is there in the 4th, same with Elfien in the 6th. Would be surprised with Adams being there at 12 and Wilson being there in the 3rd too.
  4. The other interesting scenario here would be if the Browns' guy is Webb or something and they just want to pull in another top tier defensive player from this class to pair with Garrett. Very possible Thomas, Adams, or Allen is there at 6 or if not they may want to secure Hooker or their top corner. Then it's important for them to hang onto 33 so they can secure Webb. Fournette or Howard too in a different scenario where they want to build for the QB. As much as it seems like teams don't love the talent at the top there seems to be a drop off in this draft around 10. I think the Browns moving up makes sense but a move up to 6 for Trubisky doesn't. Letting this float but misdirection on the target would though - especially if you can entice Buffalo or something to move up ahead of 6 and push down one of the position players.
  5. I think best case for the Jets if they want to move down with a team looking to jump up for Trubisky is someone decides they need Trubisky enough to get up to 2, the 49ers aren't willing to drop down to 10 or 12, and the Jets are more friendly in negotiations than the Titans. Or teams at 2-5 have guys they want enough they're not willing to move down. If Trubisky is your guy so much you want to move up for him I don't see why you'd wait all the way until pick six and risk another team going up higher. Think a team going up to get him moves up to 5 or earlier.
  6. Would love to see a trade like that. Even what he has Cleveland offering would be a solid deal. If the Bills and Browns both want Trubisky then I'd be surprised if both are willing to wait until 6 to make a move. Teams earlier should be open for business. I'd still be happy to see Trubisky come off the board before 6. Push down quality players at other positions. Really hope the Jets done get involved in trade up talks for him.
  7. Am I misremembering things or did Collins go undrafted?
  8. I was going down the list of positions and thinking of posting "the Jets are thin at position x, they could definitely afford to draft someone there". I quickly realized I was going to say that for every position on the field. Defensive end is pretty stacked at the top but if they move Richardson they could use some additional depth. Also the tight end depth chart is awful. Have said this elsewhere but with how good this class is and how awful the depth chart is I kind of think they should draft two. I think almost any of the top 10-12 TE's in this draft could compete for a week one starting spot with ASJ suspended (and arguably even over him). The cost to sign the class is going to be closer to $5m I think too - anyone they sign in the draft is going to offset someone on the low end of the roster in the top 51 calc and I think the min salary is $465k - at least per OTC.
  9. That's why I think it needs time to normalize. Not enough data points. Looking at it in a different light, the two who are starters right now below 55mph are Tyrod Taylor and Prescott and Prescot was at 54mph with a shoulder injury. There are busts above and below the threshold but not much success below. Above you have guys like Cam and Wilson above who are obviously solid - Mariota and Winston have promise, Dalton isn't special but at least stuck as a starter. Cousins looks good. First round busts Locker, Ponder, Manuel are below with Locker and Manuel at 54mph exactly. With the small data set I think that threshold was picked somewhat arbitrarily as Cam and Wilson are right above. Still think it's an interesting analysis that should be continued and the 49mph is concerning if accurate.
  10. Thanks, that's one of the better tweets I read on this. Think the Washington tweet was interesting and really brought a lot of the points home. I think it needs time to normalize/build on the data and it would be good if the NFL released this with other combine stuff. But it's definitely interesting.
  11. I'll be honest I don't recall where I read it, I read a lot about the draft. Villain posted the list on page 9 of the thread. It's only 9 years of data so it's a relatively new analysis and definitely flawed. But you can look at them and form your own opinions. I think the 49 mph was probably a bad job of testing. My point is that it's something teams should explore. If they can't find a reason for it or dispute it then its concerning. If you look at the list it's a very low velocity. And the track record, albeit a short one, is poor for guys with low velocity. Which makes sense. I think I read somewhere that 3 mph equates to a yard on a 20 yard throw, and that's a pretty big deal with how small NFL windows are.
  12. Been recorded since 2008. It's not a perfect tool. Watson's stands out so much as an outlier there could be an error or a simple explanation.
  13. Okay, you're entitled to your opinion. For what it's worth, the analysis shows that no QB who has been below 55mph in the velocity testing at the combine has gone on to a successful NFL career. Period. Not most have been bad or it's a mixed bag. It's a cut and dry threshold for a successful career previously. Not that you're golden above it, but below it simply is not enough ball velocity to be a long-term successful NFL QB no matter how fast you're processing. What that means to me is maybe some guys who are closer to 55mph are faster processors to make up for the gap in ball velocity, but historically there hasn't been someone who processes fast enough below that velocity to be successful. I do not think that the 49mph means you don't draft Watson - but I also think it needs to be taken into account. Do you need to answer why is his arm better than the 49mph it tested as (i.e. was that figure a fluke) or if it's legitimate what is it about Watson that will make him successful with physical tools that no player previously has been successful with? Especially since he's way off the threshold. He came in at 49 and the highest was 60 (Mahomes). Also this isn't based on game throws. Everyone does this at the combine under equal conditions.
  14. Have you actually read any of the 49 mph stuff or seen where Watson compares to others in this draft? They did know they were being clocked too. Favre reportedly topped out around 63, I think the 49/52 above are not representative of his velocity.
  15. Two thoughts - those who follow the draft have very limited data points to work with and it's easier to use measurables as thresholds - which teams do too. The 49 mph figure is concerning. It's possible there's a reason it was so low and likely teams are asking him to do it again in private workouts. If the 49 mph was a fluke and he's hitting the 55 mph threshold for teams in those workouts the concern about he threshold goes away - but we don't know that and it's a significant data point that needs to be explained away somehow. Mayock's analysis is purely qualitative and so it doesn't do anything to explain why the ball velocity at the combine was so low. It would be different if he acknowledged the concern but explained it was due to XYZ and thinks his arm is outstanding, but he just said the arm was outstanding. It's a separate data point to acknowledge I guess and one opinion but doesn't dispel that concern. He's been all over the place in QB analysis over the years as well which doesn't help.