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During Sunday's Fox telecast of Mark Sanchez's public flogging, in between the moments when Brian Billick repeated "jump street" and read copy for New Girl, a graphic popped up: Mark Sanchez, it read, had turned the ball over 81 times since his NFL career began in 2009, the second most turnovers of any player in that span.
That was no surprise—Sanchez's fumbles and interceptions have punctuated most New York Jets games since he arrived. But who was the one player with more turnovers than the hapless Sanchez? Eli Manning, the two-time Super Bowl-winning Giants quarterback, the intrametropolitan envy of Jets fans. A winner. With 84 turnovers to Sanchez's 81.
How could this be? Football Outsiders's similarity scores look at Sanchez's last two years of stats and find his top comparable is none other than Eli Manning, from 2006 to 2007. Are the hero and the goat of New York quarterbacking really the same kind of player? If so, is Sanchez secretly good, or is Eli secretly terrible?
Nope. The two quarterbacks arrived at the same turnover figure by radically different paths. And the only hope the Jets have turning Sanchez into Manning would be by changing their entire theory of what do with him.
The difference is a matter of risk. Eli Manning is a gambler. He holds the ball too long, increasing the chance he'll get sacked, and he is not a notably precise passer. But when he makes a risky throw, he makes it deep downfield, where there's a big payoff if the Giants receiver can catch it.
The Jets, meanwhile, have tried to coach Sanchez to be prudent. Given the strengths of their running game and their defense, they've asked him not to force things, to look for his checkdown receivers, to keep it safe. But successful conservative quarterbacks, the real game managers, are decisive and accurate. Sanchez hesitates, the way Manning does, and like Manning, he's no pinpoint passer. The difference is, the Jets don't have Sanchez try for the big payoff.
in 2011, Eli Manning led the league with 109 deep pass attempts, passes thrown 20 yards or more. The result was a career year, as judged by complex and simple metrics (Football Outsiders' DVOA, quarterback rating, yards per attempt). His completion rate fell two percentage points from the prior season, but he added 900 passing yards and, surprisingly, threw nine fewer interceptions. Sanchez had only 57 deep attempts that year, ranking 20th in the league.
(Manning hasn't thrown deep as much this year—he has 52 deep attempts to Sanchez's 47; Andrew Luck leads the league with 84—but he's spent much of the season in an unexplained funk that looks a lot like an injury.)
Sanchez is a poor passer in general. Pro Football Focus calculates that this year, Sanchez has the league's 29th-best accuracy percentage—a version of completion percentage, adjusted for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes, and the like—with only 66.9 percent of his throws on target. But his deep-passing accuracy percentage ranks 17th in the league. So while his entire body of work is woeful, this one facet of his game, deep passing, has been average.
The Jets' efforts to protect Sanchez from risk miss this point: Any pass Mark Sanchez makes is risky. What makes Sanchez disastrous is that so many of his passes are low-reward. He gets picked off on the checkdown plays. It's especially nightmarish to turn the ball over on checkdowns, because the intercepting defender often has an open field in front of him. An intercepted deep pass, however, involves lots of potential tacklers—it functions like a short punt.
(We should note that two of Sanchez's three interceptions on Sunday occurred while he was bucking the usual pattern and taking chances downfield. The Jets seemed to be OK with that: Sanchez didn't get pulled from the game until he blew two short throws for a three-and-out in the third quarter.)
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