74 replies to this topic

[faba]

This right now is a great story of perserverance and remaking yourself. 9 and 1 baby

[slowmoe57]

Back to Back 1 hitters 4 walks 25 Ks -- 11-1 I hope he keeps it going

[faba]

Amazing he is leading league in K's - when did you think a knuckleball pitcher would ever do that

[RutgersJetFan]

So I know I'm being a homer and all with this, but if he can go into the break with 13, I'd say 25 wins is pretty feasible at this point. Particularly if it's a tight race down the stretch, since he's a knuckleballer, I could see Collins using him on shorter rest a couple times to lock up one of the wild cards. And that's not even counting what the divisional possibilities could be if Washington really does stay true to their word and shuts Strasburg down.

Regardless, I was 4 when Doc won 24 and the Cy. This is pretty ****ing awesome.

[Jetsfan80]

So I know I'm being a homer and all with this, but if he can go into the break with 13, I'd say 25 wins is pretty feasible at this point. Particularly if it's a tight race down the stretch, since he's a knuckleballer, I could see Collins using him on shorter rest a couple times to lock up one of the wild cards. And that's not even counting what the divisional possibilities could be if Washington really does stay true to their word and shuts Strasburg down.

Regardless, I was 4 when Doc won 24 and the Cy. This is pretty ****ing awesome.

Jesus man, calm down. I'm excited about R.A. too, but as EY always says, "numbers always regress to the mean." Also, "symbolic penis."

Edited by Jetsfan80, 30 June 2012 - 12:37 PM.

[Thor99]

Jesus man, calm down. I'm excited about R.A. too, but as EY always says, "numbers always regress to the mean." Also, "symbolic penis."

Wakefield had a similar first half in 95, needless to say, regression.

[RutgersJetFan]

Jesus man, calm down. I'm excited about R.A. too, but as EY always says, "numbers always regress to the mean." Also, "symbolic penis."

I have no clue if this is serious or not, but if it is then I don't think you know what a mean is within the context of a regression equation.

[Jetsfan80]

I have no clue if this is serious or not, but if it is then I don't think you know what a mean is within the context of a regression equation.

I think you're just experiencing cognitive dissonance.

Also, I'm worried about you getting your hopes up for a player on your favorite sh*tty team. Personally, it worries me that so much of the Mets' success is dependent on a knuckleballer, which is such a volatile role to begin with. I don't expect him to win the Cy Young when all is said and done, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 4th or 5th in the running. Meanwhile, the Mets will end up around .500, not in the division or wild card running as you so hopefully suggest.

The fact that R.A. has 13 wins and Cliff Lee has 0 kind of sums up my argument here. Its too long of a season and we've been burned far too many times as Mets fans to let our hopes get this high.

Edited by Jetsfan80, 30 June 2012 - 01:07 PM.

[RutgersJetFan]

I think you're just experiencing cognitive dissonance.

Oh shut up. If you want to argue I'm acting like a homer that's fine considering I started off the post with it. Dickey doesn't even have a mean to base the argument you're trying to make off of and hinting that statistical regression takes precedent regardless of indirect effects is not only stupid but outright clueless from an equation standpoint. Especially considering every factor that's gone into Dickey's season. I'm not bitonti, don't give me the 'you didn't think about what you said before you said it' treatment. You know me better than that. Regression doesn't happen in a vacuum with stochastic data; this isn't 'Nam, there are rules.

Also, I'm worried about you getting your hopes up for a player on your favorite sh*tty team. Personally, it worries me that so much of the Mets' success is dependent on a knuckleballer, which is such a volatile role to begin with. I don't expect him to win the Cy Young when all is said and done, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 4th or 5th in the running. Meanwhile, the Mets will end up around .500, not in the division or wild card running as you so hopefully suggest.

The fact that R.A. has 13 wins and Cliff Lee has 0 kind of sums up my argument here. Its too long of a season and we've been burned far too many times as Mets fans to let our hopes get this high.

Of course I'm getting my hopes up, I'm a ****ing fan and I like enjoying sports. If they crash I'll be cool with it not only because it certainly wouldn't be a first for me, but also because I had zero hopes for this season to begin with and I have a ton of faith in Sandy for the long run.

That said, the Lee and Wakefield references are so falsely equivalent from a syllogistic standpoint. Just stop it. None have anything to do with the other. You don't get to try to use the concept of correlation to support one thing and then just ignore it from another. Sorry.

[Maxman]

So I just looked at his stats. Everyone knows it is an amazing year for him.

Just crazy that he is 11 games over .500 this year and that puts him at 2 over for his career. If that ever happened to a 37 year old pitcher before, I would be surprised.

Great story though, I am rooting for him.

[Blackout]

JonEJet is his biggest fan

[RutgersJetFan]

Regression.

Bitches.

[faba]

Back to leading the league in wins.

[Bugg]

Entirely plausible that he can keep going for another 7-8 years, like the Niekros, Charlie Hough, Wakefield-effective well into his 40s. A great story, and seems to be a good guy who's lived through some difficult times.

[PFSIKH]

Entirely plausible that he can keep going for another 7-8 years, like the Niekros, Charlie Hough, Wakefield-effective well into his 40s. A great story, and seems to be a good guy who's lived through some difficult times.

Define effective.

He had one 'decent' year in his last six (39yo to 44yo).

[Bugg]

Define effective.

He had one 'decent' year in his last six (39yo to 44yo).
nd

Historically knuckleballers mature late and then milk out a solid career. Dickey is a sharp guy and stays in great shape. The money is a heck of an incentive. . There's no reason he canon be Tim Wakefield, if way more effective, for the better part of a decade.As awful ask Wakefileld may have been, he ate innings.

Edited by Bugg, 10 August 2012 - 11:15 PM.

[PFSIKH]

Historically knuckleballers mature late and then milk out a solid career. Dickey is a sharp guy and stays in great shape. The money is a heck of an incentive. . There's no reason he canon be Tim Wakefield, if way more effective, for the better part of a decade.As awful ask Wakefileld may have been, he ate innings.

Probably so...I doubt Wake ever approached 80 with his fastball much less his knuckle.

[RutgersJetFan]

I love the smell of regression in the morning.

Edited by RutgersJetFan, 05 September 2012 - 04:00 PM.

[Jetsfan80]

I love the smell of regression in the morning.

Yeah so I was wrong. Not about the Mets coming back to earth but certainly about Dickey.

Dickey is now two wins shy in his attempt to become the Mets' first 20-game winner since Frank Viola in 1990. He is expected to get five more starts in September to try and attain that goal.

[RutgersJetFan]

Yeah so I was wrong. Not about the Mets coming back to earth but certainly about Dickey.

A quick tip on how regression works; for numbers to regress back to their mean, a mean has to actually exist first.