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2016 WS Champions/Cubs Thread


SenorGato

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16 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Yeah, sure, anyway the main point is that this is still the ebbs and flows of the season. Where you see as .500 ball over 53 in 2016, I and anyone sensible would see .612 ball over the course of the same, and whole, season to date. Your comments are absolutely different from what I commented on the article. What you call overpay, as a troll will, I call pay because that is exactly what it is.

I don't get why you continue to seek conflict and then get mad when you get it - playing the victim who was just asking innocently asking questions on top of that.

LOL. You really are a lost cause and a dickhead. To imply that the team is not just muddling along after the 25-6 start is just flat out refusal to acknowledge the numbers which is hypocritical for a baseball math geek such as yourself. Then to again attack any attempts at discussion on whether Theo will move quickly and overpay for help due to the pen and rotation coming back down to earth by calling me a troll because I won't kowtow to your Kool-Aid once again proves that there's no having a discussion with you. So it's best to just leave you to return to talking Baseball with yourself. I thought it was just me so I went through the "4" year Cub thread only to see that you have, and have had the same kind of conflicts with just about everyone who has dared to post or (even worse) offer an opinion contradictory to yours.... including Cubs fans.

You should just start a new thread and call it "SenorGato's opinions only Cubs thread."

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46 minutes ago, GimmeShelter said:

 is just flat out refusal to acknowledge the numbers 

You should just start a new thread and call it "SenorGato's opinions only Cubs thread."

LOL, this joke of a troll really thinks one number picked out of a hat is "the numbers." The level of delusion with this troll....What makes 53 games so significant that you picked such a random seeming number? What makes it more significant than the whole 85 games? See - THOSE are questions, not your troll bullsh*t, and I garauntee you have no real answer.

Awwwww, you feew youw poorly pwesented and thought out twoll opinions don't mattew? Hewe, I'll see if thewe's a tissue around for you, you poow poow victim twoll you. This is the second time in a week you've said you were leaving this thread, stop being a troll and follow through.

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3 Cub prospects in BA's midseason top 100:

Gleyber Torres at 27

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Hit just .179 at high Class A in April before reverting back to the mature young hitter we love.

 

Ian Happ at 37

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Threatening for a 20-20 season, earned promotion to Double-A after posting .885 OPS in first half.

Eloy Jimenez at 46

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Huge Dominican started performing like the No. 1-ranked prospect in the 2013 international class.


 

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4 hours ago, GimmeShelter said:

Braves victory last night gives them a split of the season series despite the Braves pen trying to hand the game back multiple times.

It will be curious to see how Theo now approaches the trade deadline after the last few days performances against the Braves and Reds. Whether he overpays in an attempt to jump in right now and make a deal to spark the club right away. I am not sure that even Madden can continue to address these current performances as simply part of the ebbs and flows of a 162 game season or that the return of Dexter Fowler is the cure all. I was reading a Power Ranking post yesterday which had the team at #5 and stated that they were something like 27-26 since the 25-6 start. That's a fairly large sample size of playing middle of the road baseball. 

A few weeks ago I thought Contreras would be a nice trade chip but now if I'm Theo, he's untouchable. I know he's an older rookie but he has a leadership quality about him as displayed by his jawing with Francouer last night and his big hit that looked like it would give them the win. Plus he has hit at the big league level w/out any issues so far, can catch, play 1B and LF. Very nice player. 

Good synopsis GS - 

Harrell threw well last night. Cubs have done a decent job more times than not this year in biding time with an opposing pitcher who's really on and taking them deep in at bats till they get their counts up and a reliever in.

Would have worked last night too until Joe put Patton in (see earlier post regarding his ineptitude) and his pus arm gave it away.

This team still has many young and relatively inexperienced batting eyes on it.

The good news is whats already up is looking like they can and will stay up and play at a very good WAR. 

I REALLY hope Theo and Joe don't mortgage any part of the future with win now mentality - the future is not bright -  it's blinding 

Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras (signed at 17 but is only 24), Russell, Rizzo, Almora, and Baez are all - hopefully - untouchable. Soler is still a ? in my opinion. 

Fowler has provided a great punch  - and is showing what some of these other bats are capable of with some seasoning.

We need relief pitching or we go nowhere great in 2016 - but I wouldn't give up a single untouchable to get any. They can buy some soon enough.

  

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28 minutes ago, NJ said:

Good synopsis GS -  

Evidence piles up that this place has gone to the birds for the offseason. Why give credence to a poster like this? The crazy thing is that asking this is more of an issue - which brings it back to the first sentence here.

Almora's not untouchable, but I would be (and the Cubs have been) slow to deal anyone. Beyond trolls be trolling, there's never even been a hint of reactive trades from this org under this FO. They've had SP trade rumors going back to the waiver claim on Hamels in 2014 and nothing's happened, and it's been that way for a reason. Same for the bullpen, where rumors have been going on since the offseason, including that they had a trade on the table for a big name closer and pulled out.

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48 minutes ago, NJ said:

Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras (signed at 17 but is only 24), Russell, Rizzo, Almora, and Baez are all - hopefully - untouchable. Soler is still a ? in my opinion

 I think I would at least listen to Schwarber talks if it were for say an Andrew Miller. I say that only because between Contreras and Soler the Cubs are likely covered long term at the two positions that Schwarber might get by at defensively. I understand that Soler is a bit of a question mark but Baez could likely cover left field as well. Contreras definitely looks to be the real deal. Miller is under contract friendly control until 2019 and a dominant lefty that would give the Cubs a nice (if not dominant) back end of the pen of Strop, Ronden and Miller.  That's pretty freaking good and would shorten the game on nights that Jake or Lester are not pitching.

Theo's track record shows that you're in good hands as I can only recall Carl Crawford, Edwin Jackson and Ian Stewart as being moves that jump out as being awful when you look at his resume. 

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1 hour ago, GimmeShelter said:

I say that only because between Contreras and Soler the Cubs are likely covered long term at the two positions that Schwarber might get by at defensively. 

Ignoring that Contreras is just one catcher and Schwarber split time between both positions when he was on the field - so already  your logistics are off - what about Soler has anything covered? In their time on the field Schwarber way, way outhit him and was actually the better defender.

Basically, Schwarber for Miller straight up is a laughable idea at best. Soler for Miller or an elite reliever? Consider it, maaaaybe, but cheap bats like that are better used for a SP. I don't see the value in using a major chip on a reliever in a trade when guys like Chapman and Melancon are available this offseason.

I'm thinking Boone Logan is more the Cubs' speed in a reliever trade. The Epstein quotes doesn't read like a guy looking to pay big for a reliever this deadline. 

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8 hours ago, NJ said:

We need relief pitching or we go nowhere great in 2016

I thought Edwards looked very good tonight even though it was a sloppy inning due to some shaky defense.  He's got a live arm and the ball jumps on the hitter. I wouldn't be afraid to give him a prominent role.

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10 hours ago, GimmeShelter said:

I thought Edwards looked very good tonight even though it was a sloppy inning due to some shaky defense.  He's got a live arm and the ball jumps on the hitter. I wouldn't be afraid to give him a prominent role.

Me too - and if he had stuck his glove up instead of ducking on that shot up the middle, he'd have been out of that inning a lot quicker.

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I really, really look forward to picking up a SP this deadline, it has been literallly years in the making. Between Arrieta's struggles, Hammel's general mediocrity, and a still strong farm it is finally time to get something done there. Putting fewer innings on the bullpen would be a way to improve there too, not that buying a SP stops from landing some relief help. Julio Teheran? Yordano Ventura? Matt Moore? Sonny Gray? One of those guys + Rich Hill? Someone not named here? Either way, it's coming - no Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter bullsh*t this time.

I expect a rental too....either Hill or Chapman.

 

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4 hours ago, SenorGato said:

I really, really look forward to picking up a SP this deadline, it has been literallly years in the making. Between Arrieta's struggles, Hammel's general mediocrity, and a still strong farm it is finally time to get something done there. Putting fewer innings on the bullpen would be a way to improve there too, not that buying a SP stops from landing some relief help. Julio Teheran? Yordano Ventura? Matt Moore? Sonny Gray? One of those guys + Rich Hill? Someone not named here? Either way, it's coming - no Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter bullsh*t this time.

I expect a rental too....either Hill or Chapman.

 

Are you contradicting your thoughts just a few posts ago about reactionary moves?  Because saying Arrieta and Hammel's recent struggles means it's time to make a trade for a SP would quality as feeling the team needs to make a move to rectify poor performance .....which there's nothing wrong with BTW. 

Also citing you expect, or possibly expect, seeing a Chapman rental is a far cry from earlier posting that Boone Logan is more the FO's speed when it comes to adding bullpen help both from a talent and what will have to be given up in order to acquire him perspective. 

I agree with your latest post as the Cubs are too talented IMO and have too many prospects to just sit by and continually say ebb and flow over this prolonged slide when they have a real shot at a World Series appearance by adding an arm or two.

Just trying to understand what your actual stance is as it seems to have waffled after last night's game.

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1 hour ago, GimmeShelter said:

Are you contradicting your thoughts just a few posts ago about reactionary moves?  

 

6 hours ago, SenorGato said:

I really, really look forward to picking up a SP this deadline, it has been literallly years in the making.

TF are you talking about, you tedious troll? Stop trying troll, you've already said you were done with this thread twice this week. 

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So much for the Central crown being an after thought as the Bucs have incredulously knocked 7 1/2 games off of the deficit they found themselves in on July 1. The Cards as well can cancel any seller thoughts that they might have had even with the injuries to two big pieces of their line-up in Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss. 

They Pirates run has occurred without 3/5 of their Starting Staff but with a bullpen that at least for this current  run, has been off the wall with how well they have pitched.

Cubbies could really use Lackey considering todays game as one of those "big boy games" in which he refers to as the only ones that matter. 

 

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You know how you know the Cubs are still the best all around team in baseball? Their lead "only" being 6.5 games gives trolls hope of stuff and things. I don't know if you've noticed troll, but when you come in to troll all the games magically seem to be one of those "big boy games." What happens if they lose? A 5.5 game lead going into the ASB? Oh noes! 

So it is safe to assume your drama troll queen exit, twice, was as much bullsh*t troll drivel as any of your other posts here since May? 

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11 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Their lead "only" being 7.5 games

Standings show 6 1/2 lead going into today.  My exit is in discussing baseball with you specifically due to your pompous condescending attitude to ALL posters other than yourself. But since you pride yourself on being a numbers guy I figure I'll throw you a bone and correct you in that the standings do not show a 7 1/2 game lead nor do the show the Cubs as the best all around (whatever that means) team in baseball.

Peace, love and ebb & flow.

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3 hours ago, GimmeShelter said:

Standings show 6 1/2 lead going into today.  My exit is in discussing baseball with you specifically due to your pompous condescending attitude to ALL posters other than yourself. 

Corrected that hours ago, thanks troll. 

You keep responding to me after your drama queeny troll exits too and I recall that your purpose was to leave me all alone in this thread - talking to myself as you troll described it - as a troll like yourself imagined that is a punishment. You don't talk baseball, you troll and mention baseball because it's obligated to keep trolling. Yes, despite this 1-9 and 0-5 stretch that will delude trolls like yourself into thinking anyone else really has a shot at the division, the Cubs are still the best all around team (as in all facets) in baseball. I know how complicated that might be for a casual troll such as yourself to understand without a beat writer to explain it, but that's the realities of it.

 

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So I was just checking out Heyward's season and, entering today since coming back from the injury in San Fran:

.274 .349 .408

with a 15.7% K rate over those 171 PAs. That's not half bad and I would never have guessed. My guess/hope is he turns it up in the second half, similar to how Fowler took off in the second half last year.

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Edwards Jr. gets the 8th on the road in a one run game against a division opponent during a rough stretch? Nice...Not to mention this is the latest most important gave everz according to the local troll, good to see him deliver and bigger to see Maddon give a rookie that opportunity.

It's not too big a deal, but Edwards is the one minor leaguer in the org who traveled with the big club during the playoffs last year. Somewhat telling about what the org thought about him, even as more panicky folks found shinier, newer toys to pick up and probably drop later.

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Last year's top J2 IFA according to MLB.com, Eddy Martinez, has been killing it lately for South Bend. Martinez hadn't played in 2 years, since he was 19, but played for the Cuban pro leagues at 18/19 showing some good plate discipline (17/17 K:BB in 133 PAs) at young ages.

Fun with arbitrary endpoints, including today's 2-4 with two doubles and a walk:

Since 5/3 (240 PAs): .287/.375/.440 with a 19.6% K rate

Since 6/2 (136 PAs): .338/.404/.466 with a 20% K rate

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https://mobile.twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/752322877723058176

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/752323226231926784

That HR was a no doubter, absolutely rocked the pitch. Twitter is abuzz

Didn't take long for someone to get a clip up:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SBCubsRadio/status/752323793545261058?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Eloy:

- Was one of the youngest players on either roster for the Futures Game

- Went 2/3 with a 2B, HR, and 4 RBIs

- Flashed in multiple facets - hit, power, defense, and even scored from second on a single with ease. He even worked a full count after going down 1-2 during the PA he made an out with.

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Keith Law wrote:• Eloy Jimenez introduced himself to the viewing public in rather dramatic fashion, first making one of the best defensive plays I've ever seen, ranging way over into foul territory and leaping to grab a foul popup from beyond the fence, then turning on a 95-mph fastball in the ninth inning for a home run off the top balcony on the Western Metals facade in left field. Jimenez has always had the potential for that kind of power, but big leaguers don't often hit balls where he hit that one. It was his third hard-hit ball in as many at-bats, including a ground-ball double on a slider coming in on him, and the swing is simple and sound. He's hitting .332/.372/.527 this year as a 19-year-old in low-A for the Cubs and I feel pretty good about his chances of becoming a star.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-just-played-a-month-of-very-mediocre-baseball/

Basically it comes down to the SP sh*tting the bed the past 30 days, Luckily, they've been shopping for a SP forever and will likely land a good, young one at the deadline.

This is fun:

Cubs Strength of Schedule, in Thirds
Time Games Cubs Record Cubs Win% Opp. Record Opp. Win% Opp. RoS%
First third 29 23-6 .793 1146-1432 .445 .475
Second third 29 18-11 .621 1299-1294 .501 .490
Latest third 30 12-18 .400 1237-1336 .481 .496

This team's still badass as a muh. I'm fine with not rewriting the regular season W-L record this season, which is all June really cost them. My eye for that has always been in the 2018-2020 range anyway. 

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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/16619574/chicago-cubs-los-angeles-dodgers-top-mlb-future-power-rankings

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While it's not the landslide it was in the November rankings, the Cubs are still numero uno. The objective for all big league front offices is to build the strongest possible organization. That's exactly what the Cubs have done.

Let's start with the major league roster. Even after missing out on the top free-agent pitchers this past offseason and losing their starting left fielder to a season-ending knee injury before the season even began, the Cubs have the strongest case for the best major league talent right now. ZiPS has their current roster with the best true-talent winning percentage in baseball from here on out, at .611, which is the best performance by any roster by ZiPS' estimation since the 2011 Yankees. Considering the Cubs have the best winning percentage so far, that's not exactly a computer giving counterintuitive analysis. But believe it or not, they've actually underperformed their run differential; an argument can be made that they've played more like a .700 team this year.

What's truly amazing about the Cubs is they have done this all without being an ancient team that sacrificed its future for present gains. Sure, Arodys Vizcaino would look nice in their bullpen right now, as would Zack Godley, but the Cubs built this roster retaining essentially all of their young talent. In fact, all top 10 players from Keith Law's top Cubs prospects heading into 2015 remain in the organization, as do eight of the 10 players on Law's 2014 list (Vizcaino and Arismendy Alcantara are the only ones missing). And that's just the farm system. In the majors are many graduated prospects with long major league careers ahead of them, players like Kris BryantAddison RussellJavier Baez and the injured Kyle Schwarber.

Supporting this bevy of current and future talent is an organization that has shown every indication that it will provide ample financial support to maintain its juggernaut status. When the Ricketts purchased the Cubs, many soothsayers predicted gloom and doom, saying they would never invest in the team. Turned out they weren't cheap; they were patient. Since the Cubs started to shift aggressively from rebuilding mode to contention after the 2014 season, they've brought in Jason HeywardJon LesterBen ZobristMiguel MonteroDexter Fowler and John Lackey, among others.

President of baseball operations Theo Epstein built his reputation dispelling one curse in Boston, and now he's working on lifting the hex from the Cubs. Even as a much bigger name starting his Cubs career than his Red Sox career, Epstein started off not by being flashy, but by patiently taking the long road, ignoring the people who wanted quick fixes, and implementing the rebuilding process that is paying dividends today.

Cubs, Cubs, Cubs ... We'll be hearing about them aplenty over the next five years....

No, they have not won a World Series yet. But yes, the Cubs are the strongest organization in baseball right now. World Series championships are decided every fall based on a few breaks going one way or the other. An organization cannot build around those chances, but what an organization can do is build the best roster possible. That's what the Cubs have -- the strongest roster in baseball.

But what gives the Cubs the top spot here isn't just the roster they have, but the legs their roster has. Players like Kris Bryant and Addison Russell are still at the beginning of their careers, and the team retains an excellent farm system, even if it's no longer as deep as that of teams like the Braves or Twins. Add in a willingness to spend money -- the people claiming that the Ricketts family would never spend money have had to eat a hefty helping of crow -- and a front office head (Theo Epstein) who already broke one curse in Boston, and you have the most dangerous team in baseball over the next several years. Whether the Cubs win a championship or not is in the hands of baseball's oft-cruel gods.

 

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http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160713&content_id=189411892&fext=.jsp&vkey=toolshed&sid=milb

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Top Breakout Prospect

Cubs OF Eloy Jimenez, Class A South Bend

Jimenez had a legitimate case for Futures Game MVP on Sunday after going deep and making the defensive play of the exhibition by going over the wall in foul territory to make a great grab, but he'll have to settle for this spot. Signed for $2.8 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, the outfielder was ranked as the No. 10 prospect in the Cubs system by MLB.com entering his first full season and has put himself on the pathway to stardom by hitting .332 with 40 extra-base hits and an .899 OPS in 80 games for Class A South Bend. The 19-year-old is showing the ability to hit for a high average and the kind of power that every organization wants in its corner outfielders. He's already popped into the Top 50 on Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America's updated prospect lists, and a similar jump from outside the Top 100 should be coming when MLB.com updates its rankings later this month. (Begin sarcasm) That's good because the Cubs could definitely use another young promising position player in their ranks (end sarcasm).

 

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Keith Law's midseason rankings:

26. Gleyber Torres
27. Ian Happ
29. Eloy Jimenez

Averaging BA, BP and Keith Law:

29: Gleyber Torres
37.67: Eloy Jimenez
38: Ian Happ

I thought my switch hitting Jason Kipnis ceiling comp for Happ was original, but turns out SI had that comp in their draft day writeup.

Not that I would be surprised if anyone was traded, but I bet Torres gets traded at the deadline.

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