The Troll Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Porcello is there because he's healthy, young, and productive, only equal to Price in that I would sign him before Zimmermann. You do realize Zimmermann was 2nd in the majors in FIP last year? And he won 19 games in 2013. Whether you want to look at advanced metrics or outdated hogwash, Zimmermann deserves to have his name listed among the top free agent pitchers next year. He's only two years older than Porcello. The difference between a league average starter and an ace is more valuable to me than two friggin' years. Have I ever told you that I'm really glad you don't run the Cubs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 You do realize Zimmermann was 2nd in the majors in FIP last year? And he won 19 games in 2013. Whether you want to look at advanced metrics or outdated hogwash, Zimmermann deserves to have his name listed among the top free agent pitchers next year. He's only two years older than Porcello. The difference between a league average starter and an ace is more valuable to me than two friggin' years. Have I ever told you that I'm really glad you don't run the Cubs? Oh, he had a top FIP once and won 19 games another time? Alright that is alot of science, Zimmermann's basically David Price. Why not to buy Zimmermann: - 6 years removed from TJ this year puts his arm in a dangerous position: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-high-risk-drafting-high-school-pitchers-with-top-picks/ Three different teams say data shows that once a pitcher has Tommy John Surgery, he is likely to need another operation within seven years. - Two pitch pitcher with fastball/slider. Throws his changeup, cutter, and curve like 10% of the time combined. I don't buy that he can mix his pitches better thanks to the first point above. More breaking balls and offspeeds is inevitable, and bad for his elbow. - Flyballs and line drives - those are his favorite types of contact. - Mediocre whiff rates. Career his whiff rate is something like 9%. Cole Hamels, who pitches to the Nats rather than the Phillies, posts whiff rates 2-3% higher throughout his career. But I mean if he put up a top FIP once then by all means....throw him another Lester deal....I mean, that is advanced stuff, nowhere near the basic analysis of the day. Its still the early 00s, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Oh, he had a top FIP once and won 19 games another time? Alright that is alot of science, Zimmermann's basically David Price. Why not to buy Zimmermann: - 6 years removed from TJ this year puts his arm in a dangerous position: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-high-risk-drafting-high-school-pitchers-with-top-picks/ - Two pitch pitcher with fastball/slider. Throws his changeup, cutter, and curve like 10% of the time combined. I don't buy that he can mix his pitches better thanks to the first point above. More breaking balls and offspeeds is inevitable, and bad for his elbow. - Flyballs and line drives - those are his favorite types of contact. - Mediocre whiff rates. Career his whiff rate is something like 9%. Cole Hamels, who pitches to the Nats rather than the Phillies, posts whiff rates 2-3% higher throughout his career. But I mean if he put up a top FIP once then by all means....throw him another Lester deal....I mean, that is advanced stuff, nowhere near the basic analysis of the day. Its still the early 00s, right? In 2012 Zimmermann ranked 5th in WAR among pitchers. Last year? 7th. He posted the second best strikeout to walk ratio last year. He's a great pitcher. You can't find me a metric that says he isn't. As much as the prospect of Porcello inducing grounders right at defensive wizard Starlin Castro for the next five years appeals to me, I'll take the guy who's been an elite pitcher two of the last three seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 He's a good pitcher lined up to be a horrible long term FA deal. The word elite is passed around like a hoowah, but Zimmermann has been that maybe last year. Way too many flags to lump in with Price, or even target as a FA. Porcello is solid, young, very healthy, has only now started to mix his pitches more (he's basically survived on his sinker since he was 20), better batted ball profile...Way better buy, and if not give me Samardzija. Someone else can pay for Zimmermann's next TJ and/or quicker than imagined decline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Cole Hamels remains available on the trade market, and as many eight teams have kicked the tires on the ace left-hander, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Asked by Salisbury how many clubs have made offers, Amaro replied, “Real offers? Four.” Amaro wouldn’t comment on which clubs made those “real” offers... - MLBTR Cubs need to be one of those four, the winning one at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Cole Hamels remains available on the trade market, and as many eight teams have kicked the tires on the ace left-hander, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Asked by Salisbury how many clubs have made offers, Amaro replied, “Real offers? Four.” Amaro wouldn’t comment on which clubs made those “real” offers... - MLBTR Cubs need to be one of those four, the winning one at that. Red Sox want Hamels. I'd prefer the cubs get him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Been suggesting Phil Coke all offseason, glad the Cubs landed him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Been suggesting Phil Coke all offseason, glad the Cubs landed him. Certainly need a lefty "out" guy - don't know if it's him though. Love the fact he took a minor league contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Certainly need a lefty "out" guy - don't know if it's him though. Love the fact he took a minor league contract. Minor league deals literally never hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 BOOM! http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25094590/kyle-schwarber-hits-grand-slam-on-birthday-in-first-mlb-spring-at-bat sweet swing on this kid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Minor league deals literally never hurt. Fact bro - Also heard that he passed on a couple major league offers to sign with the "lovable losers" This new take on the Chicago National League Franchise is going to take some getting used to - but I'm up for the challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Good deal with Coke. Still don't understand the Wright non-tender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 BOOM! http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25094590/kyle-schwarber-hits-grand-slam-on-birthday-in-first-mlb-spring-at-bat sweet swing on this kid I'm a little weary of prospects who more or less pop out of nowhere, and despite being the 4th pick in a very weak draft that fits Schwarber. I don't see him as a catcher, which pretty much ruins him for me. Hopefully he either helps land a stud pitcher (still Hamels) or turn into a catcher this year. Otherwise he's just not going to be a worthwhile defensive player. Good deal with Coke. Still don't understand the Wright non-tender. Wrights fastball sucked and the FO has stated many times a want for power arms in the bullpen. He just didn't fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I know it means less than nothing ... but seeing these kids do this is pretty inspiring ... http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/03/10/try-to-remain-calm-jorge-soler-javier-baez-and-kris-bryant-just-went-back-to-back-to-back/ only thing better would have been to have Schwarber rope one too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 In a related note, the buttons on the front of my pants seemed to have popped off. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I'm a little weary of prospects who more or less pop out of nowhere, and despite being the 4th pick in a very weak draft that fits Schwarber. I don't see him as a catcher, which pretty much ruins him for me. Hopefully he either helps land a stud pitcher (still Hamels) or turn into a catcher this year. Otherwise he's just not going to be a worthwhile defensive player. Wrights fastball sucked and the FO has stated many times a want for power arms in the bullpen. He just didn't fit. How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft. If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft. If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. Many in the know are saying he's one of the purest hitters in the draft - that's what's exciting to me. the don't come along every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft. If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. Schwarber was pretty late to the party for a guy who ended up being drafted 4th. He was known, but generally thought of as a late first bat with no shot to catch. Most of his hype has come after the draft, which sounds cooler than it is because "after the draft" is still A ball. Things to consider: - The 2014 draft was weak, one of the weaker ones in recent times. - The Cubs previously stated that college bats were the best way to use top of the draft picks. - There was no Kris Bryant, Tulo, or Longoria in the draft - His best competition for top college bat was a guy who profiled as a bad LFer at the time (which, as a "catching prospect" technically means Schwarber would be sliding down the defensive scale to become) or a catcher with some glove and some bat but not elite amounts of either without taking a step forward in the pros...basically, it wasn't a tough room to work. Long term, I think he's a bad defensive corner with a solid but not prodigious bat. Right now I actually think he's the single most overrated player in the system. He's only got a couple hundred PAs in pro ball, all in the SS and A ball levels. The Cubs have an amazing, amazing PR department. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Pretend there was a time before the draft. Schwarber was pretty late to the party for a guy who ended up being drafted 4th. He was known, but generally thought of as a late first bat with no shot to catch. Other things to consider: - The 2014 draft was weak, one of the weaker ones in recent times. - The Cubs previously stated that college bats were the best way to use top of the draft picks. - There was no Kris Bryant, Tulo, or Longoria in the draft - His best competition for top college bat was a guy who profiled as a bad LFer at the time (which, as a "catching prospect" technically means Schwarber would be sliding down the defensive scale to become) or a catcher with some glove and some bat but not elite amounts of either without taking a step forward in the pros...basically, it wasn't a tough room to work. Long term, I think he's a bad defensive corner with a solid but not prodigious bat. He's only got a couple hundred PAs in pro ball, none above the A ball levels. Right now I actually think he's the single most overrated player in the system. The Cubs have an amazing, amazing PR department. So, you dislike him just because he was a late riser? It's not like he was projected as a third rounder or something and the Cubs reached. .344/.428/.634 with 18 homers in 72 games across three different levels last year. What an over-rated prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 So, you dislike him just because he was a late riser? It's not like he was projected as a third rounder or something and the Cubs reached. .344/.428/.634 with 18 homers in 72 games across three different levels last year. What an over-rated prospect. No, just am skeptical and think he's being overrated. The Cubs "reached" for a guy who was probably a mid-late first round pick in most drafts, but last year was not most drafts. It was really weak - enough that a HS lefty went 1 overall for the first time in ~25 years, didn't sign, and isn't even the clear cut favorite to go 1 overall in the very next draft. Scouting stat lines is hack. The "three different levels" include SS ball, A ball, and High A ball - not exactly the pinnacle of baseball competition. Still plenty of questions about defense, quick twitch athleticism including foot speed, logging PAs against better competition...He's a good prospect, but he gets pretty boring if he moves off of C and there is a really good chance he is not a C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 No, just am skeptical and think he's being overrated. The Cubs "reached" for a guy who was probably a mid-late first round pick in most drafts, but last year was not most drafts. It was really weak - enough that a HS lefty went 1 overall for the first time in ~25 years, didn't sign, and isn't even the clear cut favorite to go 1 overall in the very next draft. Scouting stat lines is hack. The "three different levels" include SS ball, A ball, and High A ball - not exactly the pinnacle of baseball competition. Still plenty of questions about defense, quick twitch athleticism including foot speed, logging PAs against better competition...He's a good prospect, but he gets pretty boring if he moves off of C and there is a really good chance he is not a C. Power doesn't bore me, and he's got it in spades. Dismissing stat lines completely because they're "hack" is hack. Of course it was against lower level competition. That's basically what all rookies face against in their first year. They don't all have OPS's over 1.000, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Power doesn't bore me, and he's got it in spades. Dismissing stat lines completely because they're "hack" is hack. Of course it was against lower level competition. That's basically what all rookies face against in their first year. They don't all have OPS's over 1.000, though. 1 - Eh, we don't really know what his power ceiling is. 2 - No one is dismissing his stat line. Thinking this is all that matters is hack. 3 - This isn't some rookie. I get that not making these nuances makes your argument a little cleaner sounding, but it's possible to be better than most prospects and still not have that great of a ceiling in the majors. It's possible to be much better than most lower level pro ball players without having that great of a ceiling in the grand scheme of things. Relatively speaking, I love the bat - but see it as more Nick Swisher than Babe Ruth (the other day I had a Cub fan try to compare him to Ken Griffey ******* Jr). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 1 - Eh, we don't really know what his power ceiling is. 2 - No one is dismissing his stat line. Thinking this is all that matters is hack. 3 - This isn't some rookie. I get that not making these nuances makes your argument a little cleaner sounding, but it's possible to be better than most prospects and still not have that great of a ceiling in the majors. It's possible to be much better than most lower level pro ball players without having that great of a ceiling in the grand scheme of things. Relatively speaking, I love the bat - but see it as more Nick Swisher than Babe Ruth (the other day I had a Cub fan try to compare him to Ken Griffey ******* Jr). Well, there ya go, the last sentence pretty much describes why you're being a Schwarber wet blanket. I might feel similarly if I saw idiots comparing him to Ken Griffey Jr. But, I would say that since being drafted last June, Schwarber has done nothing but inspire optimism. Believe me, I was not happy that we yet again passed on pitching in the draft, but I'm happy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Well, there ya go, the last sentence pretty much describes why you're being a Schwarber wet blanket. I might feel similarly if I saw idiots comparing him to Ken Griffey Jr. But, I would say that since being drafted last June, Schwarber has done nothing but inspire optimism. Believe me, I was not happy that we yet again passed on pitching in the draft, but I'm happy now. I thought the same thing before that comment. There's plenty who actually buy that he's as good as or better than Bryant. When something so unknown inspires so much optimism, there should also be skepticism. I don't care about passing on pitching - I get why that happened - I just don't think Schwarber is definitely a stud who will be anchoring the Cubs lineup with all those other homegrown guys for the next half decade++. I'd trade Schwarber for Hamels right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I thought the same thing before that comment. There's plenty who actually buy that he's as good as or better than Bryant. When something so unknown inspires so much optimism, there should also be skepticism. I don't care about passing on pitching - I get why that happened - I just don't think Schwarber is definitely a stud who will be anchoring the Cubs lineup with all those other homegrown guys for the next half decade++. I'd trade Schwarber for Hamels right now. I want to be the Indians of the 90's. Except, ya know, with championships and sh*t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 I want to be the Indians of the 90's. Except, ya know, with championships and sh*t. I want to be the Yankees - lots of winning, big payrolls, headlines, and so on. Unlike the Indians, they could buy and trade for top pitching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Aka the Yankees - who were able to go out and buy pitching. Well, they had Hershiser. Just had sh*t luck. The f*cking Marlins. That still pisses me off. I was an Indians fan before I discovered WGN, which was in '98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Another two homer game for Jesus Kris. Now 9/20 with 6 homers this spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Another two homer game for Jesus Kris. Now 9/20 with 6 homers this spring. Incredible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Another two homer game for Jesus Kris. Now 9/20 with 6 homers this spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Baez - 30 AB - 1 BB - 11K's - 3 H's - 1HR = umbay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Baez - 30 AB - 1 BB - 11K's - 3 H's - 1HR = umbay What the f*ck happened? It's like he just suddenly went retarded the second he got called up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Well, they had Hershiser. Just had sh*t luck. The f*cking Marlins. That still pisses me off. I was an Indians fan before I discovered WGN, which was in '98. Plus guys like Finely (lost to the Angels)...Nagy...Yeah, tough luck for those Indians teams. ---- I got censored on a Cubs forum for saying the word gay, in a joke that had nothing to do with sexual orientation. Further proof that Cubs fans are soft. ---- Cubs still need to land Hamels. ---- Cubs need to re-draft Isiah Gilliam in June. ---- Still pissed they missed out on Heyward's age 25 ---- Baez needs to start the year in AAA. The extra year will help his trade value, and he needs the seasoning. Bryant needs to be on the ML roster on OD, he would be in a merit based world. ---- Kyle Schwarber might be the single most overrated prospect in baseball, but if he helps land a top pitcher I will take it. He's a no glove player whose bat just might be overrated over the long term. My comp right now is Matt LaPorta. Cubs need to shoot for a Matheny/Ausmus type at C and hope they luck into a Yadier Molina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 What the f*ck happened? It's like he just suddenly went retarded the second he got called up. I don't know dude ... he's making a young Soriano look picky at the plate. Criminal to waste that bat speed - but Maddon's not giving him 10 different things to look at and work on. He told him to lay off the crap and relax up there, and he's giving him a ton of at bats to work on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 My preseason top 20 Cubs prospects (allowing me to cheat and keep the top 3): 1) Bryant - Best power in the minors, could be a 30+ HR guy as a rookie. 2) Russell - Has it all. 3) Soler - Stay on the field ----- 4) Torres - A solid MIF prospect with some strong ARL going for him right now. 5) McKinney - One of the better and more patient plate approaches in the system, but not much power. David DeJeus type starter. 6) Almora - Made some changes in his swing, still young and athletic, still question the bat right now, but ultimately I do think he is a MLer. 7) Schwarber- I think he's the most overrated prospect in the system, but grand scheme he's better than most prospects. No glove, all bat, marginal athlete, and the bat hasn't even really been tested yet (meh the Big 10,meh dominating the A ball levels out of college). Will make the show, but I question the upside. ----- 8) Stinnett - Needs innings, and not a ton of upside as a starter really, but I like him. For whatever reason I think of a power armed Villanueva flex pitcher. None of the SP prospects have a huge ceiling right now anyway. 9) Edwards - Not sure what to think of him, but definitely a reliever early on in his ML career. ---- 10) Rivero - Not sure how long it lasts, but a really strong reliever prospect as those go. 11) Hannemann - More physical prospect than you would think, second best athlete in the system. Looked good in the AFL. 12) Zagunis- Interesting athlete himself, though I have no actual hopes he can C. I'm forever on the lookout for Zobrist candidates, so I'm interested in where he plays this year. 13) Clifton - Has some of the better size/velocity/youth combos in the system, has more innings than most of those guys, and has stayed healthy. Basically a year behind Underwood, but has the height and length that Underwood never came up with. 14) Underwood - Needs to tighten his curveball or develop a slider. I think the Cubs thought he would grow a couple more inches when drafting him at 17. Instead he first showed up fat, he never gained any height or length, and now is pretty filled out and barrell chested. Good arm strength, fast arm, some trouble spinning it. Kinda reminds me of Edwin Jackson, if he's lucky. 15) Mitchell - Best athlete in the system, has legitimate baseball talent and tools. An aggressive ranking - will still be at the SS levels this year. 16) Johnson - Just not a fan overall, even as a reliever. 17) Tseng - Lacks projection but if he stays healthy and develops tighter offspeeds could be a decent SP in the league. 18) Steele - Younger, quicker arm, same height, and better delivery than Sands, under the radar. Aggressive ranking. 19) Black - High intensity guy on the mound. Almost definitely a reliever, 6th-7th innings guy, and a likeable prospect as one. 20) Eloy Jimenez - A big kid (6'4," all arms and legs) but not yet a stiff athlete, and didn't embarrass himself as a 17 year old stateside for the first time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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