32 replies to this topic

[RyanBe_Tweetin]

I was gonna make this really long but I'm too lazy so I'll make it short:

Kyle Wilson
Kenrick Ellis
Joe McKnight
Jon Conner
Shonn Greene
Vladimir Ducasse
Mark Sanchez

Is this make or break years for any of these guys?

[Bleedin Green]

Wilson and Ellis aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Wilson may not yet be what they hoped, but he's still a valuable part of this defense. And a guy with the size and potential of Ellis you simply do not give up on that quickly, just look at Pouha for no more perfect of an example of that.

McKnight will probably last throughout his rookie contract without any issues.

Conner? Who the hell knows. He could end up not even making it this year.

Greene is almost a sure-fire goner after this year barring a hugely impressive breakout season. My prediction all along has been they'll run Greene's ass into the ground then let him walk since his deal is up.

Vlad is in an absolute make or break year. His excuses have run out, so this is his year. They're clearly giving him every opportunity in camp this year by moving him between Brick and Mangold and letting him compete with Slauson.

Sanchez is in sort of a make or break year, but not quite. He won't be gone after this year simlpy because it's impractical for the Jets to even try to get rid of him given his contract. He'll get this year to prove he's the guy, and if he doesn't convince the Jets this year that he's the future, I'm guessing they'll be hitting the draft early for their next QB and possibly giving Sanchez one last run at the start of next year before finally benching his ass for the rook at some point (while maybe wasting some of our time with Tebow at some point in there). If he doesn't get it done this year, the only way Sanchez has a chance of sticking around after the 2013 season is if he gets lucky enough to manage to pull a Brees/Rivers type situation out of his ass.

[JiF]

I was gonna make this really long but I'm too lazy so I'll make it short:

Kyle Wilson
Kenrick Ellis
Joe McKnight
Jon Conner
Shonn Greene
Vladimir Ducasse
Mark Sanchez

Is this make or break years for any of these guys?

Wilson played really well last season and I think he'll only get better and they will take their time with Ellis.
McKnight has a huge opportunity this year, but dont think its a make or break season.
Connor probably is in a make or break training camp.
Greene will be a FA and will almost certainly have a suitor after the season.
Vlad is hard to tell, he's likely a back up but of any of these guys he's probably the one.
Sanchez is going to have a break out season.

[SayNoToDMC]

My liver

[Matt39]

My liver

That obviously

Sanchez
McKnight might not even make it past training camp
Powell
Ducasse
Greene already sucks so he's gone anyway after this year

pretty much everyone on offense besides Brick and Mangold...and Holmes bc we have no choice

[SenorGato]

That obviously

Sanchez
McKnight might not even make it past training camp
Powell
Ducasse
Greene already sucks so he's gone anyway after this year

pretty much everyone on offense besides Brick and Mangold...and Holmes bc we have no choice

This. It's easier to list who isn't in a make or break year for the offense. Hill, the two franchise OLmen, and Holmes.

[slats]

That obviously

Sanchez
McKnight might not even make it past training camp
Powell
Ducasse
Greene already sucks so he's gone anyway after this year

pretty much everyone on offense besides Brick and Mangold...and Holmes bc we have no choice

McKnight has a guaranteed roster spot, and will be the primary KOR and #2 RB. He will push Greene for for playing time all season.

Greene is almost certainly gone after this season. It's up to him to put up a contract year performance. I'm not as convinced as Bleedin that the Jets will run him into the ground. I expect McKnight to steal carries from him between the 20's, and Tebow to steal some in the redzone.

Powell's not in a make or break year, either, especially with the assumption that Greene is gone in 2013. He's facing an uphill battle to see much playing time at all this year behind Greene, McKnight, and Tebow. if anything, Powell could be in a make year by forcing the coaches to play him by having a great camp. But even if he can't do that, he'll still be here next season competing.

[Matt39]

McKnight has a guaranteed roster spot, and will be the primary KOR and #2 RB. He will push Greene for for playing time all season.

Greene is almost certainly gone after this season. It's up to him to put up a contract year performance. I'm not as convinced as Bleedin that the Jets will run him into the ground. I expect McKnight to steal carries from him between the 20's, and Tebow to steal some in the redzone.

Powell's not in a make or break year, either, especially with the assumption that Greene is gone in 2013. He's facing an uphill battle to see much playing time at all this year behind Greene, McKnight, and Tebow. if anything, Powell could be in a make year by forcing the coaches to play him by having a great camp. But even if he can't do that, he'll still be here next season competing.

McKnight is currently battling Powell for the 3rd down back position. Every position is up for grabs on offense, except for Holmes spot essentially. If he loses, I can see him being cut....they wont keep him around to just return kicks if he cant do anything else.

McKnight's been my surprise cut for a while now. I dont get the sense they think he's very good.

Edited by Matt39, 01 August 2012 - 07:48 AM.

[Sperm Edwards]

(Thanks to Jason for cap #'s, saving a ton of looking up as always)

Make or break (on paper anyway):

Aaron Maybin (high motor and great pre-season press notwithstanding, he may be too expensive to

re-sign if he's still not an every-down player)

Vladimir Ducasse (roster spot more than money is the factor)

Bilal Powell (or unless he becomes a ST demon he'll leave with Greene)

Wayne Hunter (since most would consider mediocre to qualify as "make")

Sione Pouha (indirectly, so don't laugh; if Ellis suddenly lives up to his hype or is even starter-worthy

then in 2013 they're not carrying 34 year old Pouha's $6M+ cap number)

Jeff Cumberland (if he can stay on the field they may decide Keller isn't worth the long-term $$$ he

would command; otherwise Cumberland's a FA in '13)

Greg McElroy (Other than the obvious, which is him seeing significant playing time and doing not badly,

Sanchez having a breakout season actually could save him. He's cheap enough and they could

use draft picks on other positions. Otherwise look for the Jets to use his roster spot on Sanchez's

real 2013 competition or 2014 heir apparent)

John Conner (needs to start busting up LBers and safeties like he teased us with as a pre-season rookie

because one-dimensional blocking-only FBs come out every year as low-round picks or UDFAs)

Shonn Greene (only putting his name here on the miracle-chance he turns into Michael Turner. I'd be

surprised if he's back in '13 when he won't cost only $600-800K on the cap anymore).

Any or all of the 6th-7th rounders (especially since there were so many this year)

Also based on this year Jets will have to decide which, if any, of these guys (and their increased cost) fit their future plans:

Matt Slauson (FA)

Brandon Moore (FA)

Dustin Keller (FA)

LaRon Landry (FA)

Bryan Thomas (FA) - I only mean whether or not to bring back on a 1 year vet min contract again

Would take a miracle superstar season or a enormous pay cut to bring back any of:

Calvin Pace (saves $8.5M to cut)

Bart Scott (saves $7.1M to cut)

Eric Smith (saves $3M to cut)

Barring an unforseen collapse, or something tragically career-ending, these guys others have mentioned are 100% safe given the draft or FA/cap cost to replace:

Sanchez (though he'll get more competition than Tim Tebow if 2012 is no better than his first 3 seasons)

Wilson

Kerley

These low-cost guys can easily be justified to return in '13 even without a breakout season:

Ellis

McKnight

McElroy (see above)

[Matt39]

McKnight is now hurt.

[nj meadowlands]

Cool thread. Great analysis above, Sperm.

I would say from a non-dollars and cents perspective, I agree with most of Matt and Ryan's list:

Sanchez
Every RB on the roster
Ducasse
Wilson
Maybin
Keller
Conley

[slats]

McKnight is currently battling Powell for the 3rd down back position. Every position is up for grabs on offense, except for Holmes spot essentially. If he loses, I can see him being cut....they wont keep him around to just return kicks if he cant do anything else.Sparano hasn't shown any interest in him up until this point, it wouldn't exactly inspire confidence in me if the Jets picked him up at this late stage.

McKnight's been my surprise cut for a while now. I dont get the sense they think he's very good.

Huh?

LG and RT are somewhat up for grabs, everything else is pretty much set. Powell winning the 3rd down back job would be a major upset, but it still wouldn't result in McKnight being released. McKnight would still be valuable as the KOR and backup RB.

The only other place where there might be a minor competition is at WR, but Hill will almost certainly start, and Kerley will almost certainly keep his slot position - despite the uncharacteristic public swipes at him from Rex and Tanny.

[stoicsentry]

McKnight said it was make or break for himself this year.

[Matt39]

Huh?

LG and RT are somewhat up for grabs, everything else is pretty much set. Powell winning the 3rd down back job would be a major upset, but it still wouldn't result in McKnight being released. McKnight would still be valuable as the KOR and backup RB.

The only other place where there might be a minor competition is at WR, but Hill will almost certainly start, and Kerley will almost certainly keep his slot position - despite the uncharacteristic public swipes at him from Rex and Tanny.

How?

WR #2 sure isnt

Anthony Lynn said yesterday that the #2 back is completely up for grabs. If McKnights role is only KR....he's certainly on the bubble....especially if they bring in someone like Benson.

Brick, Mangold, Holmes, Sanchez, Keller are your only definites.

I'd even say RB #1 is up for grabs if Greene looks like dogsh*t again. Or at least I'd hope it is.

Edited by Matt39, 01 August 2012 - 08:10 AM.

[stoicsentry]

How?

WR #2 sure isnt

Anthony Lynn said yesterday that the #2 back is completely up for grabs. If McKnights role is only KR....he's certainly on the bubble....especially if they bring in someone like Benson.

Brick, Mangold, Holmes, Sanchez, Keller are your only definites.

Greene also as starting RB. Brandon Moore also as starting RG. Kerley as slot if you start 3 WR.

But besides Holmes, Sanchez, Ferguson, Greene, Mangold, Moore, Keller, Kerley, etc. there's really no 100% locks on offense.

Then again, that's 8 out of 11, and even the positions where there are "battles", the battles are minimal: Slauson will likely retain LG, Hill will likely start WR #2 unless hurt, and Hunter will start RT, unless someone is brought in to replace him.

[Matt39]

Greene also as starting RB. Brandon Moore also as starting RG. Kerley as slot if you start 3 WR.

But besides Holmes, Sanchez, Ferguson, Greene, Mangold, Moore, Keller, Kerley, etc. there's really no 100% locks on offense.

Then again, that's 8 out of 11, and even the positions where there are "battles", the battles are minimal: Slauson will likely retain LG, Hill will likely start WR #2 unless hurt, and Hunter will start RT, unless someone is brought in to replace him.

Kerley is a lock? How? What has he ever done?

The locks youre listing were part of a sh*t unit last year. We couldnt throw the ball more than 10 yards, Greene cant get past the LOS without tripping over hiw own feet...if the Jets have locks on offense on day 4 of camp then we're looking at another sh*tty year from the unit.

[slats]

Would take a miracle superstar season or a enormous pay cut to bring back any of:

Calvin Pace (saves $8.5M to cut)

Bart Scott (saves $7.1M to cut)

Eric Smith (saves $3M to cut)

I think here you've found the money they'll need to keep Maybin if he can keep up, or improve upon, his 2011 performance - even if he's not an every down player. I think you're right about Pouha as a potential cap savings, too.

[THE ILK]

Tony Sparano

[Sperm Edwards]

Cool thread. Great analysis above, Sperm.

I would say from a non-dollars and cents perspective, I agree with most of Matt and Ryan's list:

Sanchez
Every RB on the roster
Ducasse
Wilson
Maybin
Keller
Conley

Thanks!

I just don't think Kyle Wilson needs a breakout season to justify bringing back. Entering 2013 he'll still be a 26 year-old first round pick who sees the field a ton and costs more cap space to cut than to keep. So unless he shows himself to be of Matt Mulligan's level of uselessness or some GM on a crack bender offers us a 1st-2nd round draft pick, there's no way in hell he's going anywhere. If he's only mediocre and even if he takes a slight step backward in 2012 he's still coming back in 2013. This is absolutely not a make or break season for Wilson.

[Sperm Edwards]

Kerley is a lock? How? What has he ever done?

He was good for a rookie, and has value on both offense and STs. Certainly a promising player in 2011, he'll be young and dirt cheap with a couple years of NFL exposure. Replacing him with a minimum-salary undrafted rookie - who likely would see the field far less than Kerley anyway - saves an insignificant $200K on the 2013 cap.

What do we have, so many great and proven long-term solutions at receiver or something that we couldn't justify his roster spot as a 5th or 6th WR for 1 more year?

Kerley would need to be stupid-awful, as in no longer being worthy of a roster spot on any NFL team, to get cut after only his 2nd season.