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Guest Message by DevFuse

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A look at the 2013 cap situation...just cause


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37 replies to this topic

#1 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 05:53 PM

Ok, I'll admit it, I'm sick of talking about this years team already. Too soon for this? Oh well. I need hope. Is there any? First off, The Jets have approximately $140M in cap dollars with an estimated $121M cap for 2013. So here are my cuts with cap savings:
If Cut:
Calvin Pace, Save $8.5M
Bart Scott, Save $7.1M
Sione Pouha, Save $4M
Eric Smith, Save $3M
Jason Smith, Save $12M
Santonio Holmes, Save $1.2M
Tim Tebow, Save $1.5M
Total Cap Savings: $38M (about)

Estimated 2013 Jets Cap Value with Cuts: $102M

Estimated NFL 2013 Salarary Cap: $121M

So...Estimated Cap Space with cuts above: $19M

Roster Under Contract:
Offense: This is obviously where a majority of the cap $ and draft picks needs to be spent. Essentially no RT, LG, RG, TE, WR depth and QB issues.
QB: McElroy, Sanchez
WR: Hill, Kerley, Gates
RB: Powell, Mcknight, Grimes Connor
TE: Reuland, Baker
OT: D'Brick
OG: Ducasse, Schlauderaff
OC: Mangold

Defense: resigning Landry and filling holes at OLB and adding depth is a must
DE: Wilkerson, Coples
DT: Ellis, Harrison
ILB: Harris, Davis
OLB: McIntyre, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Bush
P: Malone

All in all the roster would be thin with little depth and only $19M in cap space given the cuts above...however without any cuts (and/or trades) the Jets will be an estimated $20M over cap, so get ready for a lot of these players either getting cut or renegotiating their contracts.
Players who could/will be asked to possibly renegotiate:
Sanchez, $13M Cap value (or $4.3M against the cap if cut...still might be worth it)
Harris, $13M Cap value ($4M saved if cut)
Cromartie, $10M Cap value
D'Brick, $10M Cap value
Mangold, $9M Cap Value

source: Jason's site nyjetscap.com

Edited by HessStation, 09 October 2012 - 06:00 PM.

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#2 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 05:58 PM

Harris is a goner if the Jets can find a taker for him. His contract is one of the worst ever for this franchise and he's been absolutely awful this year.
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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#3 pointman

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 05:59 PM

So Holmes is going to be around another year at least?

And Mark... chances are slim to none that we cut him right?
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#4 Larz

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 05:59 PM

please cut bryan thomas as well
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All that is gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost; The old that is strong does not wither, Deep roots are not reached by the frost.

#5 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:02 PM

please cut bryan thomas as well

i think he only has a 1 year contract for 2012.
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#6 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:03 PM

Harris is a goner if the Jets can find a taker for him. His contract is one of the worst ever for this franchise and he's been absolutely awful this year.

agreed. and the problem is every one of their impact players is payed like a superstar. They have no bargains unless some of these draft picks can step up.

Edited by HessStation, 09 October 2012 - 06:05 PM.

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#7 stoicsentry

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:05 PM

No way they cut Holmes to save a mere $1.2 when they are so thin at WR. No way.

And if you think about it, our WR group is not that bad when healthy. Holmes, Hill and Kerley are a solid if unimpressive group. Draft and develop a #4 with a mid-round pick.

Cumberland showed me a lot last night. Worst comes to worst, he can take over for Keller. But him and Keller together would be a nice 1/2 punch if we can re-sign Keller at a somewhat deflated price due to the injury and such.

RB is where we have the biggest weakness, and a bit on the o-line.

Also re-sign Landry if healthy, and Bell, both of them won't cost much.

I see our draft panning out like this:

#1: RB/RT/LG/OLB (best available of the 4)
#2: Same
#3: Same
#4: Same or WR
#5: Same or WR
#6: Same or WR
#7: Same or WR
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#8 THE ILK

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:10 PM

Is there light at end of tunnel?
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#9 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:20 PM

Is there light at end of tunnel?

i was hoping to paint a more optimistic picture but it turned out bleak. They're essentially 20M over the cap with no starting LG, RG, RT, TE, RB, S on the roster for starters. Not to mention the same duds at LB, prior to any cuts, trades or renegotiating. Plus Sanchez.

Edited by HessStation, 09 October 2012 - 06:22 PM.

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#10 pointman

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:21 PM

i was hoping to paint a more optimistic picture but it turned out bleak. They're essentially 20M over the cap with no starting LG, RG, RT, TE, RB, S on the roster for starters. Not to mention the same duds at LB, prior to any cuts, trades or renegotiating.

tanny is good at this though. Despite everyone hating him, and his choice in players.. guy knows how to move the money around.
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#11 THE ILK

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:24 PM

i was hoping to paint a more optimistic picture but it turned out bleak. They're essentially 20M over the cap with no starting LG, RG, RT, TE, RB, S on the roster for starters. Not to mention the same duds at LB, prior to any cuts, trades or renegotiating. Plus Sanchez.

Great, now I sick of talking about next years team already.
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#12 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:25 PM

Great, now I sick of talking about next years team already.

LOL I tried. I really did. *cuts self*
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#13 Obrien2Toon

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:36 PM

This looks like it needs to be at best a 3, probably 4 year plan.

They need to be patient and do this the right way for once. Don't let selling tickets come before eventually winning.
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#14 Jets Voice of Reason

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:41 PM

i was hoping to paint a more optimistic picture but it turned out bleak. They're essentially 20M over the cap with no starting LG, RG, RT, TE, RB, S on the roster for starters. Not to mention the same duds at LB, prior to any cuts, trades or renegotiating. Plus Sanchez.


Weird. It's almost as if mike T borrowed from tomorrow to pay for today.
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Remember that time a few months ago when I said I had blue balls, and you, well, you gave a brother a hand?

That would be it for me..


#15 dbatesman

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:44 PM

Harris is a goner if the Jets can find a taker for him. His contract is one of the worst ever for this franchise and he's been absolutely awful this year.


It's maddening. The moves we've made in the last 18 months are like an object lesson in the hidden costs of poor drafting and sh*tty quarterbacking. We're bad where you can't afford to be bad (QB, WR, pass rush) so we hand huge contracts to positions where smart teams save money (both ILBs, #2 CB, backup QB). The roster's a complete cluster**** and the worst part is, I have zero faith in the ability of the current group to fix it.
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This is like having a cat with leukemia.


#16 stoicsentry

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:46 PM

It's maddening. The moves we've made in the last 18 months are like an object lesson in the hidden costs of poor drafting and sh*tty quarterbacking. We're bad where you can't afford to be bad (QB, WR, pass rush) so we hand huge contracts to positions where smart teams save money (both ILBs, #2 CB, backup QB). The roster's a complete cluster**** and the worst part is, I have zero faith in the ability of the current group to fix it.


That "huge" contract for Cromartie is looking good right about now. And Tebow doesn't have a huge contract. Get real.
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#17 dbatesman

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:47 PM

That "huge" contract for Cromartie is looking good right about now. And Tebow doesn't have a huge contract. Get real.


What position does Uncle Mike play in softball? Or do you guys just stick with frisbee and horseshoes at the family BBQs?
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This is like having a cat with leukemia.


#18 THE ILK

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 06:56 PM

This looks like it needs to be at best a 3, probably 4 year plan.

They need to be patient and do this the right way for once. Don't let selling tickets come before eventually winning.


Plan wander in the desert!
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#19 lancemehl

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:04 PM

lol @ the title of this post. But you need to check Woody allen's financial situation, judgements, tax issues and sh*t. Apparently (as the story goes) we're 9 million under the cap this year. I'm sure the exact reasons why are overblown a little by the media, but 9 million UNDER?? Think about (well, IF we had someone doing this stuff but....) an extra 9 million spent in the offseason? What did Landry cost? 3-5? I dont know but it wasn't nine. THAT was our major splash. The NEW YORK Jets! The PSL, toughest ticket in the NFL Jets? I remember Wheel of fortune at the end you would spend your money, they would be split screen buying sh*t that was laying there with the big prices on it. lol (Like 500 dollars for a walkman or some sh*t lol) They would go until there was Nothing left they could afford and they'd always put the rest on a gift certifcate or roll it over. lol But that's what the **** we should be doing! My bad. I'm just saying? In fairyland, there would be some standard set that potential owners have to meet besides meet for golf....to really prove they had the will and the capability and the know how or any one of the above at least, damn. They should have to answer a couple trivia questions about the sport....something. But that's fantasyland. Alright. take it easy.
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21 Million left over.

#20 BlackDynamite

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:06 PM

Ok, I'll admit it, I'm sick of talking about this years team already. Too soon for this? Oh well. I need hope. Is there any? First off, The Jets have approximately $140M in cap dollars with an estimated $121M cap for 2013. So here are my cuts with cap savings:
If Cut:
Calvin Pace, Save $8.5M
Bart Scott, Save $7.1M
Sione Pouha, Save $4M
Eric Smith, Save $3M
Jason Smith, Save $12M
Santonio Holmes, Save $1.2M
Tim Tebow, Save $1.5M
Total Cap Savings: $38M (about)

Estimated 2013 Jets Cap Value with Cuts: $102M

Estimated NFL 2013 Salarary Cap: $121M

So...Estimated Cap Space with cuts above: $19M

Roster Under Contract:
Offense: This is obviously where a majority of the cap $ and draft picks needs to be spent. Essentially no RT, LG, RG, TE, WR depth and QB issues.
QB: McElroy, Sanchez
WR: Hill, Kerley, Gates
RB: Powell, Mcknight, Grimes Connor
TE: Reuland, Baker
OT: D'Brick
OG: Ducasse, Schlauderaff
OC: Mangold

Defense: resigning Landry and filling holes at OLB and adding depth is a must
DE: Wilkerson, Coples
DT: Ellis, Harrison
ILB: Harris, Davis
OLB: McIntyre, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Bush
P: Malone

All in all the roster would be thin with little depth and only $19M in cap space given the cuts above...however without any cuts (and/or trades) the Jets will be an estimated $20M over cap, so get ready for a lot of these players either getting cut or renegotiating their contracts.
Players who could/will be asked to possibly renegotiate:
Sanchez, $13M Cap value (or $4.3M against the cap if cut...still might be worth it)
Harris, $13M Cap value ($4M saved if cut)
Cromartie, $10M Cap value
D'Brick, $10M Cap value
Mangold, $9M Cap Value

source: Jason's site nyjetscap.com


Hess station:

1. You have to save $5M to sign your rookie draft class, so subtract $5M from your $19M
2. Holmes and Tebow aren't going anywhere next year, since the owner wants Tebow here, and the team has next to no WR as it is. Holmes is taking up $12M in cap space next year whether you cut him or not, so why cut him over $1M? Makes no sense. His deal is designed for him to be on the team next year. Same with Sanchez ($4.3M hit)

So you really only have about $12M, enough to resign some guys that are here, or to fill holes with similar talent. Jets have 19 FA at the end of the year, so don't expect to bring in a team of great talent for $12M.....

Revis' new deal should give you a chunk of cap space next season, IF you commit to him long-term, which is very questionable. Same thing with restructuring Cromartie, should get you some space.
BD
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#21 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:19 PM

Jerod Mayo 2013 Cap Value: $5.6M; 5 year (extension) for 48.5M with 25M guaranteed
David Harris 2013 Cap Value: $13M; 4 year 36M with 30M guaranteed
...the guaranteed money is interesting. Although Mayo's cap value skyrockets in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to around $10M although the Pats recoup almost 100% of that in space in 2016 and 2017, if cut.

Logan Mankins signed a 6 year, $51M with $30M guaranteed
Nick Mangold signed a 7 year (extension) $54M with $22M guaranteed (however renegotiated again in 2011, I think for an added roster bonus)

Next added value between the two they spit by position whereas added dollars goes to:
Vince Wilfork 2013 Cap $10M; 5 year 40M with 24M guaranteed
Darrelle Revis 2013 Cap $9M; 7 year 55M with 27M guaranteed

But this is where things change between the two imo. In just looking at 2013 contracts the Jets have all these other players making the same big, superstar money:
Holmes: 12.5M
Pace: 11.5M
Cro: 12M
D'Brick: 10.5M
Scott 8.6M
The Pats on the other hand:
Lloyd: 4.5M
Hernandez: 4M
every other player is $3M or lower

The pink elephant in the room is of course:
Brady 2013 cap value: 21M
Sanchez 2013 cap value: 13M

Hate to compare the two but thought it was somewhat interesting. Moral of the story I guess is Quarterbacks rule the NFL. duh.

Edited by HessStation, 09 October 2012 - 07:22 PM.

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#22 SayNoToDMC

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:22 PM

Somebody do the 2014 cap. We're already ****ed next year also
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28ad228d-4df6-4b64-b890-b5246112bd82.jpg


#23 HessStation

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:33 PM

Hess station:

1. You have to save $5M to sign your rookie draft class, so subtract $5M from your $19M
2. Holmes and Tebow aren't going anywhere next year, since the owner wants Tebow here, and the team has next to no WR as it is. Holmes is taking up $12M in cap space next year whether you cut him or not, so why cut him over $1M? Makes no sense. His deal is designed for him to be on the team next year. Same with Sanchez ($4.3M hit)

So you really only have about $12M, enough to resign some guys that are here, or to fill holes with similar talent. Jets have 19 FA at the end of the year, so don't expect to bring in a team of great talent for $12M.....

Revis' new deal should give you a chunk of cap space next season, IF you commit to him long-term, which is very questionable. Same thing with restructuring Cromartie, should get you some space.
BD

I agree with Holmes and Tebow not going anywhere, realistically. I could argue it only cost the Jets 3.5M to sign the rookies but they only actually have 4 on the roster.

My personal thoughts on cutting Holmes is essentially cutting your loses and taking the hit next year relieving yourself of thugturd in the future... in essentially what would be...a rebuilding year. But I agree with you.

You have to believe this is probably how Tannenbaum keeps his job....when the whole offseason revolves around renegotiating half the roster's contracts.
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#24 Boblivius

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:34 PM

This looks like it needs to be at best a 3, probably 4 year plan.

They need to be patient and do this the right way for once. Don't let selling tickets come before eventually winning.

You also need someone who knows talent. Tanny isn't the answer. No doubt that he's a good numbers guy, but we need a top talent evaluator as GM.
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#25 jason423

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 07:34 PM

Im not going to go crazy with the 2013 cap yet, even though Im really negative on the teams prospects. At 2-3 its too early to bail and start picking apart 2013. Come November if the team is still bad Ill try to get something together going over things. That being said I dont think its a guarantee the cap even remains flat next season. The league and union had to come to some agreement over that this past year (they are locked into the player cost being equal but with benefits rising the cap goes down) to keep it flat and then the union went lawsuit happy over cap penalties and suspensions. I dont think the league will necessarily play ball with them this year on the issue especially since more than a few teams have amassed big cap space to roll into next year.
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