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Jets Playoff Scenarios After Week 14


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#1 JetNation

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 06:11 AM

 

After beating one of the worst teams in football, the Jets are right back into the thick of the playoff race. Thanks to losses by the Steelers and Bengals which puts the Jets one game back of the 6th seed in the AFC at 6-7. Now what I’m going to do is try to show the various ways the Jets can enter the playoffs and how they can win or lose any tiebreaker while doing so.

First, I am going show the current standings and the final opponents that each team has left that is in front of the Jets. I’ll include the teams behind them later as none of them can get to 9-7 which is the most likely record that the Jets can get in by.

Current standings and tiebreakers as of 12/11

CONF RK

AFC

W

L

T

PCT

DIV

CONF

SOS

SOV

REASON

5

Indianapolis

9

4

0

.692

3-1-0

6-3-0

.420

.385

6

Pittsburgh

7

6

0

.538

2-2-0

4-6-0

.467

.473

Wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage.

7

Cincinnati

7

6

0

.538

1-3-0

5-5-0

.444

.352

8

NY Jets

6

7

0

.462

2-3-0

4-5-0

.544

.404

 

Indianapolis

Remaining schedule – @ Houston, @ Kansas City, vs. Houston

Tiebreaker vs. only Jets – Lose due to H2H in week 6

Controls own destiny vs. Jets – 1 win knocks Jets out from catching Indy

 

Pittsburgh

Remaining schedule – @ Dallas, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland

Tiebreaker vs. only Jets – Win due to H2H in week 2

Controls own destiny vs. Jets – 3 wins or 2 wins with 1 being vs. Cincinnati to knock Jets out

 

Cincinnati

Remaining schedule – @ Philadelphia, @ Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore

Tiebreaker vs. only Jets – Win due to conference record (5-5 vs 4-5)

Controls own destiny vs. Jets – 3 wins or only lose to Philadelphia to knock Jets out

 

Jets

Remaining schedule – @ Tennessee, vs. San Diego, @ Buffalo

 

Now for the scenarios that will get the Jets in the playoffs (not 100% but close enough) it would be way too long to put who can be the 5th /6th seed in each scenario for now so I’m going to skip that part. There is no tiebreaker for all 3 teams as in-division tiebreaker is settled first before moving on to outside division tiebreakers.

 

#1. Jets clinch 5th seed

Jets win all 3 games

Colts lose all 3 games

Cincinnati cannot beat Baltimore

Steelers lose at least 1 game

 

Tiebreakers

Jets beat Colts alone H2H

Jets beat Steelers & Colts with conference record(7-5, 6-6, 6-6)

Jets beat Bengals & Colts with conference record(7-5, 6-6, 6-6)

 

#2. Jets finish 6th at 9-7

Jets win all 3 games

Colts win a game(worst finish would be 10-6)

Bengals do not beat Baltimore(would give them SOV win over Jets)

Steelers lose to Bengals(would beat Cincinnati in H2H at 2-0)

 

Tiebreakers

Jets beat Bengals with conference record (7-5 vs. 6-6)

 

#3 Jets finish 6th at 8-8

Jets beat Bills & Chargers to prevent loses in tiebreakers to Bills, Chargers, and Bengals.

Steelers only beats the Cowboys to prevent division win percentage win over Cincinnati

Cincinnati only beats the Steelers to prevent Steelers from winning H2H tiebreaker

Browns lose a game to prevent conference record win over Jets and division record win over Bengals and H2H win over Steelers

 

Tiebreakers

Jets beat Dolphins in common games (6-6 vs. 5-7)

Jets beat Bengals in strength of victory

 

As we are done here one of the only non-decided tiebreakers is the one between the Jets and Bengals with strength of victory in the event of an 8-8 record as each team would be 6-6 in conference and tied at 4-2 in common games (Jacksonville, Miami, Pittsburgh, & San Diego) so in order to decide that every game between teams the Jets beat and the Bengals beat becomes that much more important. Since they would have some common victories(Jacksonville & San Diego), I’ll leave them out since it would be useless to include them since it won’t affect anything. I have also adjusted some of the team’s records to reflect the scenario as a couple of the teams cannot be at certain records otherwise the tiebreaker is meaningless.

 

Jets winsBengals wins
Buffalo (5-9) x 2 plays DolphinsBrowns(5-8)(cannot finish 8-8) plays Redskins
Dolphins (5-8) plays BillsRedskins(7-6) plays Browns
Colts (9-4) plays ChiefsGiants(8-5)
Rams (6-6-1)Chiefs(2-11) plays Oakland, Indy
Cardnials (4-9)Raiders(3-10) plays KC
Steelers(7-8)(cannot finish 9-7)
Total – (34-45-1)Total – (32-48)
Best possible finish – (49-46-1)Best possible finish – (44-48-4) or (46-50-0)

 

Just to let people know the Jets can finish as high as 3rd in the draft order. There is only one scenario in which this can happen and it involves a bunch of teams going 7-9 and 6-9-1 with at least four whole divisions finishing with 6-9-1 or better records. So I doubt it will happen. The Jets currently sit in the 12th spot with a chance to move up or down as the season winds down.

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#2 Boblivius

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:18 AM

Thanks for an excellent post.
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#3 whodeawhodat

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:38 AM

Wow, that is some amazing math work there. I need a cliff notes version(do they even have that for math?). Who am I rooting for this week?
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#4 JiF

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:41 AM

My head hurts. And this aint happening. But thanks. Definitely an interesting finish to the year.
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#5 CrazyCarl40

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:44 AM

My head hurts. And this aint happening. But thanks. Definitely an interesting finish to the year.


The Jets will win out. It's the way this team operates.
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#6 JiF

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:46 AM

The Jets will win out. It's the way this team operates.


They win out AND miss the playoffs. That Jets football baby.
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#7 Matt39

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:49 AM

Damn Colts have so many bullsh*t wins this year- maybe it catches up to them.
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#8 slowmoe57

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:29 AM

Sucks we have to root for Philly and Dallas. Stranger things have happened.
With all the crap we have gone through we still have meaningful games in December. JMO

Edited by slowmoe57, 11 December 2012 - 11:08 AM.

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#9 Il Mostro

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:58 AM

Not only do the shoes and socks have to come off for those calculations, it would help to have six toes on each foot. As sick as I am of all of this team's shenanigans, it will still be fun to see what happens (amidst the usual angst and nausea). JiF's forecast of winning out and missing the playoffs would be the cherry on top of this season.
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#10 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:06 PM

I used to love to figure out how the jets could get into the playoffs with all the scenarios & whatnot.

But I know deep inside no matter what, the jets are going to lose a game and make all this worthless.
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#11 Bleedin Green

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:10 PM

I used to love to figure out how the jets could get into the playoffs with all the scenarios & whatnot.

But I know deep inside no matter what, the jets are going to lose a game and make all this worthless.


But it still needs to be a few weeks away in order to keep this all going for a while longer. Of course, at the same time, every other scenario will work out in the Jets favor that would get them in right until they blow it at the very end. Those are our lovable Jets.
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#12 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:13 PM

But it still needs to be a few weeks away in order to keep this all going for a while longer. Of course, at the same time, every other scenario will work out in the Jets favor that would get them in right until they blow it at the very end. Those are our lovable Jets.


thats what im counting on. Jets blowing it against the Bills week 17. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
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#13 pointman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:23 PM

Biggest shocker in all this? That somehow the Colts only lost four games, and one of them was to us.
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#14 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:28 PM

Biggest shocker in all this? That somehow the Colts only lost four games, and one of them was to us.



:rl:

the Pats lost to the cardinals....
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#15 pointman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:30 PM

:rl:

the Pats lost to the cardinals....

I always figured that was to make fun of us. Like you know, "hey, we suck so bad we lost to the cards but we blew you turds out by 30. Whats that say about you guys?"
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#16 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:33 PM

I always figured that was to make fun of us. Like you know, "hey, we suck so bad we lost to the cards but we blew you turds out by 30. Whats that say about you guys?"


we showed them with our dominating victory over the cardinals!! we coulda run up the score like the Pats do, but greene decided to take a knee at the goal line to preserve the 1pt win instead of trouncing them by 8.
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#17 pointman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:05 PM

we showed them with our dominating victory over the cardinals!! we coulda run up the score like the Pats do, but greene decided to take a knee at the goal line to preserve the 1pt win instead of trouncing them by 8.

Exactly! Cause you know what that one point victory showed right? "WE'RE #1". Damn we owned New England hard.
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#18 Smashmouth

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:18 PM

The Jets will win out. It's the way this team operates.


nope not at all.............the way this team operates is the Jets will go into the last week aganist buffalo and everyone will lose letting us control our own destiny then we will lose to Buffalo
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#19 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:25 PM

Exactly! Cause you know what that one point victory showed right? "WE'RE #1". Damn we owned New England hard.


We're winners. Whether by 40 points or 1. We're winners in my book.
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#20 pointman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:41 PM

We're winners. Whether by 40 points or 1. We're winners in my book.

You're starting to make me believe. Super Bowl... here we come?
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#21 Lil Bit Special

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:50 PM

You're starting to make me believe. Super Bowl... here we come?



Possible. Just need to make the tourney.

With Rex as our HC, we know we can win on the road in the playoffs. And why cant we get lucky like the Gints did last year and all our opponents having their worst game against us...

I smell Lombardi.
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#22 pointman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 02:10 PM

Possible. Just need to make the tourney.

With Rex as our HC, we know we can win on the road in the playoffs. And why cant we get lucky like the Gints did last year and all our opponents having their worst game against us...

I smell Lombardi.

Smells like chicken?

And the Giants, bunch of satan worshiping cheaters.
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#23 whodeawhodat

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 02:50 PM

I guess you guys thought I was joking earlier....

who do I root for this week(besides teh jets since I am not one of those who are hoping for draft position)?
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#24 #27TheDominator

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 03:19 PM

Smells like chicken?

And the Giants, bunch of satan worshiping cheaters.


Gather round. It's time to sacrifice the goat.
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#25 wildthing2022000

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 11:18 PM

I guess you guys thought I was joking earlier....

who do I root for this week(besides teh jets since I am not one of those who are hoping for draft position)?


Pretty much just root against the Steelers, Bengals, & Colts. This week they're playing the Cowboys, Eagles, & Texans.
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