Posted 14 December 2012 - 08:03 AM
Colts, and Steelers wins pretty much eliminates us, The Colts win would put us out of reach, and a Steelers win decimates our chances to slim to none, even if Bengals beat the Steelers the following week, both would have to lose week 17, Cincy plays Ravens, and Pitt plays Cleveland, I don't see Pitt losing to the Browns at home in a do, or die situation. Also 1 loss by the Jets eliminates us now.
TBH our best chance at getting in is the Colts losing their last 3 games, in any 3-4 way tiebreaking scenario involving the Jets, Colts, Steelers, and Bengals, for the final 2 spots the Jets would be the 1st team to get in, and be the 5 seed, all H2H tiebreakers get thrown out unless 1 team has swept all teams tied, in this case nobody has, then it goes to Confrence record, in any scenario in which these 3-4 teams end tied at 9-7, for the final 2 spots the Jets would have a 7-5 Confrence record, and the best any of the other 3 teams could have is 6-6, Steelers already have 6 Confrence losses, Cincy has 5, and both games remaining are AFC games so 1 lose which is required in this scenario gives them 6 AFC losses, and Indy has 3 AFC loses, and all 3 games remaining are against the AFC, and in this scenario they would have to lose all 3 giving them a 6-6 AFC record.
Unfortunately the Colts have the Chiefs on their schedule in week 16 which is a win, and in scenario, every game they play is a win, and in scenario, but the other 2 are against Houston who will probably have to win out to get the #1 seed, and even with a loss week 16 against whomever they play, then they would be fighting for the #2 seed to insure a 1st round bye week 17.
To my knowledge their is no scenario in which the Jets can win a tiebreaker with the Ravens involved for 1 spot, they would be the 6 seed I believe thou in a 3+ team tiebreaker involving the Ravens for the final 2 spots.
A lot of sh*t needs to happen it can be as simple as the Bengals beating Pitt next week, and losing to Balt, and Jets winning out, or as complicated as 5 teams tied at 9-7, 3 from same division with 1 winning the division, and 2 going H2H in tiebreakers to have the right to get involved with the other 2 teams to break the ties for the final 2 spots. In that last scenario if Balt loses tiebreaker with Pitt for division, Baltimore is the 5 seed Jets are the 6 seed, if Balt wins division Jets are the 5 seed, and then I don't know after that to much work to figure out common opponent winning % for the final spot for 2 teams I don't give a sh*t about.
After explaining all that, In the crazy case the Jets do win out I can't see them getting in, if Pitt loses this week, I see them beating both Cincy, and Cle, and see Cincy also losing to Balt, and Colts beating the Chiefs, all that eliminates the Jets no matter what they do.
Also if Cincy wins out, Balt loses out, and Indy wins 1 game we are eliminated regardless of what the Steelers do because we can't beat either Pitt, or Balt in a 2 way tiebreaker scenario.
