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#1 JetNation

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 10:19 AM

After the Jets recent loss in glorious fashion, we’re going to start to prepare for the draft. With the loss, the Jets can go as high as the 4th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and as low as the 20th pick. Now to figure out the scenario for each pick might be a bit hard and to keep this from being a novel I will just do two scenarios: highest pick possible and lowest pick possible.

 

Highest Pick Possible Scenario

Jets lose last two (duh!)

Bills win in week 16

Dolphins beat Patriots in week 17

Cleveland win last two

Chargers win in week 17

Titans win last two

Eagles win last two

Lions win last two

Buccaneers win a game

Cardinals win last two

Saints beat the Cowboys in week 16

Panthers win last two

 

If all of that happens then the Jets would finish at 6-10 and would be in a 3-way tie for the 4th worst record in the league. According to the NFL the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule, which as of now and not including anything from the scenario goes as such:

 

Jets – 50.2% (112-110-2)

Eagles – 51.3% (115-109-0)

Lions – 56.5% (126-98-2)

 

Jets have clinched over the Lions since they share 8 common opponents and the Lions division rivals play each other, so they can’t make-up the 14 game difference so it’s down to Jets vs. Eagles. The Jets and Eagles share two common opponents in the Cardinals and Steelers.

 

The list below will show the records of the teams in order to make the scenario work and nothing else so some teams might be missing a game or two.

 

Jets Opponents

Bills x2 – 7-9

Dolphins x2 – 7-9

Patriots x2 – 10-5

Steelers – 7-8

Chargers – 7-9

Titans – 7-9

Texans – 12-2

Jaguars – 2-13

Colts – 9-5

49ers – 10-4-1

Rams – 6-8-1/7-7-1

Seahawks – 9-5

Cardinals – 7-9

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 124-118-2 or 125-119(51.2%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-117-2 or 126-118(51.6%)

 

Week 16

Colts at Chiefs (0-1 or 1-0)

Bengals at Steelers (0-1 or 1-0)

Patriots at Jaguars (1-2 or 2-1)

Vikings at Texans (0-1 or 1-0)

Seahawks at 49ers (1-1)

Week 17

Texans at Colts (1-1)

Rams at Seahawks (1-1)

 

Best case scenario – Chiefs, Bengals, Jaguars, & Vikings win(4-8)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 128-126-2 or 129-127(50.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 129-125-2 or 130-126(50.7%)

 

Eagles opponents

Cowboys x2 – 8-7

Giants x2 – 8-7

Redskins x2 – 8-7

Cardinals – 7-9

Lions – 6-10

Saints – 7-9

Falcons – 13-3/12-4

Bucs – 7-9

Panthers – 7-9

Bengals – 8-6

Ravens – 9-5

Browns – 7-9

Steelers – 7-8

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 126-119(51.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-120(51%)

 

Week 16

Bengals at Steelers (1-1)

Giants at Ravens (1-2 or 2-1)

Week 17

Ravens at Bengals (1-1)

Bears at Lions (0-1 or 1-0)

Cowboys at Redskins (2-2)

 

Best case scenario – Giants and Lions win (7-5)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 132-124(51.6%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 131-125(51.1%)

 

Basically the Jets have a to see who Tampa beats and how week 16 folds out since if Tampa wins in week 16 then the Jets have a game in hand in SOS going into the rest of the games for the scenario games otherwise Philly will have the game advantage.

 

In case you were wondering, there is a scenario in which the Jets tie with the Chargers and Raiders along with Philly and Detroit for the 3rd pick but they would lose to them both in strength of schedule since they are ahead by 10+ games so it’s better to concede the 3rd pick to the Raiders and win the tiebreaker for 4th.

 

Lowest Pick Scenario

 

This one will have the Jets finishing at 8-8 with as few ties as possible in order to contend for a higher spot. I’m not sure how this will work as in this scenario an 8-8 team or a 9-7 team would make the NFC playoffs thus changing how many teams are tied for the last spot at pick number 20 since 21-32 are reserved for playoff teams.

 

The scenario goes as follows:

Jets win last 2

Vikings lose last 2

Bears lose last 2

Giants lose 1 or both

Cowboys or Redskins lose last 2

All 7 win teams lose both games

All 6 win teams lose at least once

Rams lose once

 

It’s a bit confusing but in these 3 scenarios the Bears and possibly the Vikings along with either one or two of the following: Giants, Cowboys & Redskins would be tied with the Jets at 8-8.

 

So either way we would have a 4-way tie for the best record for a team not in the playoffs.

 

Current strength of schedule not using scenario

Jets – 112-110-2 (50.2%)

Bears – 115-107-2(51.8%) Bears +3

Giants – 118-105-1(52.9%) Giants +5.5

Vikings – 116-106-2(52.3%) Vikings +4

Cowboys – 115-109(51.3%) Cowboys +2

Redskins – 112-111-1(50.2%) Jets +.5

 

The above is not good when it comes to tiebreakers as the Jets must have the best strength of schedule in this case to get the higher pick. To keep it short I won’t do the math in full but basically vs. the NFC North teams the Jets share at least 8 common opponents, so for the Jets to have any chance the Patriots must win out plus the Bucs and Panthers must lose out. For the NFC East teams the Jets must have the AFC North teams minus Pittsburgh and the NFC South teams lose while the AFC South and Cardinals win out.

 

With the way the schedule is set-up though with all division match-ups in week 17, I don’t see a way for the Jets to get the highest pick since in any scenario the Jets have to catch up to either the Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys along with the Bears who each will be increasing their strength of schedule by 3(division rival gets 2) since they have to lose out to meet this criteria while the Jets lose 3 since they have to win to get into this position. With that huge swing in mind here’s how it would look when you just add the three games to each of the team’s strength of schedule.

 

Current strength of schedule with the 3 game swing:

Jets – 112-113-2

Bears – 118-107-2 Bears +6

Giants – 121-105-1 Giants +8.5

Vikings – 119-106-2 Vikings +7

Cowboys – 118-109 Cowboys +5

Redskins – 115-111-1 Redskins +2.5

 

Looking at this this would mean that the Jets at best could probably pass only the Redskins while falling short of the Cowboys by a game or two which means the best case scenario would be having the Redskins going 8-8 and the Jets just barely passing them in strength of schedule to get the 18th pick of the draft otherwise it’ll be the 17th pick.

 

So in conclusion the Jets can possibly draft as high as 4th and as low as 18th tune in next week when this stuff becomes a heck of a lot easier.

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#2 SouthernJet

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 12:51 PM

New GM, trade down for more picks and rebuild,,
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#3 T0mShane

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 01:13 PM

Tl;dr like a mother****er. I'll happily cede our first pick in exchange for a different GM.
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#4 bitonti

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 01:22 PM

nice work, that's alot of permutations.
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#5 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 01:26 PM

If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.
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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#6 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 02:52 PM

If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.


There's literally nothing good that can ever come from losing. Nothing.

(To reduce confusion, the above is another bitonti classic)
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#7 bitonti

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:01 PM

There's literally nothing good that can ever come from losing. Nothing.

(To reduce confusion, the above is another bitonti classic)


i stand by that one
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#8 Scott Dierking

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:13 PM

There's literally nothing good that can ever come from losing. Nothing.

(To reduce confusion, the above is another bitonti classic)


Coaches performing badly getting fired would be a great outcome.
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Originally Posted by Blackout
LOL ignorance is bless.

#9 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

Coaches performing badly getting fired would be a great outcome.


Tannenbaum first.
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#10 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

i stand by that one


Color me surprised.
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#11 dbatesman

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:17 PM

If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.


You know better than this. There is literally zero chance we drop the last two. Bonus: McElroy shows enough that Rex anoints him the starter for 2013 and then we spend all our picks on defense. Done and done.
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This is like having a cat with leukemia.


#12 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:23 PM

You know better than this. There is literally zero chance we drop the last two. Bonus: McElroy shows enough that Rex anoints him the starter for 2013 and then we spend all our picks on defense. Done and done.


So no Sanchez? 2013: Best season ever.
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#13 Scott Dierking

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:24 PM

Tannenbaum first.


You don't saddle a potential incoming GM with a HC that is flailing. You give him a clean slate
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Originally Posted by Blackout
LOL ignorance is bless.

#14 JetsFanInDenver

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:27 PM

and somehow the JETS will win the next two and we will end up with worst case scenario!
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#15 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:27 PM

You don't saddle a potential incoming GM with a HC that is flailing. You give him a clean slate


Who's saddling him with Rex?
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#16 Scott Dierking

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:30 PM

Who's saddling him with Rex?


If you put the onus on a new GM that Rex has to be coach, you are saddling him.
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Originally Posted by Blackout
LOL ignorance is bless.

#17 Jetsfan80

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:33 PM

If you put the onus on a new GM that Rex has to be coach, you are saddling him.


Only a retard would do that. Wait, Woody is our owner, nevermind.

I've been of the opinion for a while now that the new GM should be able to make that decision. Tannenbaum is just far more culpable for our predicament. Regardless of how much input Rex gave him, he ultimately made the decisions to draft and extend Sanchez. He's been here 7 years and the roster has regressed since 2010. For that he deserves the ax first. Simple enough.

Edited by Jetsfan80, 21 December 2012 - 03:34 PM.

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#18 bitonti

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:35 PM

after reading all the imaginations of how 2013 will look, all the heavy lifting to get rid of sanchez and how a new GM wouldn't want Mark or an existing HC the most likely change i see is Sparano getting fired. That's it. Sanchez, Rex and Tanny all come back. Alex Smith or Vick to compete with Mark or whatever.

2014 is the big change year.

to be clear Im not endorsing this outcome but i am predicting it. lost in all this discussion about firing Tanny is that Woody has no other football minds to lean on (including his own). and firing all these people doesn't change the fact that Woody has to pay mark Sanchez next year no matter what.

Edited by bitonti, 21 December 2012 - 03:37 PM.

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#19 bitonti

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:38 PM

Color me surprised.


you can point to Andrew Luck and John Elway as an example where losing was a good thing. I can point to every other losing team, ever. The exception doesn't disprove the rule. Some teams have been losing for decades. All it does is make them a loser. Statistically you'd rather be a winner. To be in the rabbit hole so deep that losing is good... it's unhealthy way to think and it's no way to run a pro football team.

Edited by bitonti, 21 December 2012 - 03:39 PM.

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#20 faba

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:48 PM

Sorry Woody I do not think is so blind that nothing will change after this year. And that will be good
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#21 T0mShane

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:56 PM

Get the 14th overall pick. Draft Tyler Eifert in Round One, then Tyler Wilson in Round Two. Start McElroy for the first half of 13, then let Wilson play. Boom. Done. Blam.
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#22 dbatesman

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 04:01 PM

Get the 14th overall pick. Draft Tyler Eifert in Round One, then Tyler Wilson in Round Two. Start McElroy for the first half of 13, then let Wilson play. Boom. Done. Blam.


Tyler Wilson has started something in the neighborhood of 25 games. I'm not even going to get into your continued fetishization of ND tight ends.
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#23 T0mShane

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 04:04 PM

Tyler Wilson has started something in the neighborhood of 25 games.



Yes, but he seems like a tidy prospect.

I'm not even going to get into your continued fetishization of ND tight ends.



Because large white dudes are almost always Jason Witten. #Science
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#24 dbatesman

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 04:06 PM

Yes, but he seems like a tidy prospect.


He's fine, but if we're going with a guy in round 2 or later, I'd prefer one with more experience.

Because large white dudes are almost always Jason Witten. #Science


Depends on what you mean by "large." #hellofriend
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#25 faba

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 04:14 PM

Tom has this thing for large guys
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