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WWWWombat

Braves land Justin Upton

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WWWWombat    1,194

https://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8876169/the-atlanta-braves-acquired-justin-upton-arizona-diamondbacks-sources

The Atlanta Braves have agreed to a trade to acquire outfielder Justin Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitcher Randall Delgado, infielder Martin Prado and minor leaguers Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury and Zeke Spruill, sources tell ESPN.

The deal is pending physicals by players involved.

The deal would unite Upton with his older brother, B.J. Upton, who signed as a free agent with Atlanta this winter. After signing, B.J. Upton said he wanted to play with this brother in the same outfield.

The Upton brothers and right fielder Jason Heyward would give the Braves one of baseball's best outfields. Heyward won his first Gold Glove in 2012, when he hit .269 with 27 homers and 82 RBIs.

The Diamondbacks once viewed Upton as a player they would build around for years to come. At age 21, he hit 26 homers, scored 84 runs and drove in 86 runs. In March 2010, Arizona signed Upton to a six-year, $51.5 million deal. The D-backs made the playoffs in 2011, and Upton finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

But the Diamondbacks started discussing possible Upton trades that fall, and after he got off to a poor start in 2012, Arizona owner Ken Kendrick criticized Upton and other players in a radio interview.

Arizona again looked into trading Upton before the July 31 deadline last summer and continued to have discussions once this offseason began. It has became increasingly apparent that the relationship between the Diamondbacks and Upton had been damaged.

The Diamondbacks had agreed to a deal to trade Upton to Seattle earlier this month but the player vetoed it. Seattle was among four teams that Upton's contract that he could nix. Atlanta was not on that list.

In Atlanta, Prado was expected to move from left field to third place to replace Chipper Jones, who retired. That slot will now likely be filled by Johnson, who batted .281 with 15 homers and 76 RBIs last season with Houston and Arizona.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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SenorGato    13,222

Prado put up 6 fWAR last year, but the analysts/experts seem very focused on the prospects.

This prospect obsession on the internet is hopefully just a phase...enough already with this sh*t. We get it - if prospects work out then they are cheap production and your team is in competition for the Efficiency Award with the Big Rays Machine.

D'Backs took the right Braves pitching prospect.

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HeavyFog    26

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Everyone likes pointing out Justin Upton's dramatic home/road splits - and that's okay - but I think he'll be fine moving away from Arizona's Chase Field. People under sell that aside from Chase Field, Upton only excelled at one other park (S.D. - Petco) in the N.L. West. He rakes (career .293/.388/.483) at Turner Field in Atlanta, and only struggles offensively in one park (Nationals Park) in the N.L. East. Uniting the Uptons isn't a quantifiable thing, but you have to think that can only help their production.

D'Backs took the right Braves pitching prospect.

Not sure about this. You'd rather have Delgado than Teheran? That's highly debatable, and even you'd have to admit Delgado's perceived ceiling is certainly lower between the two. Either way, you didn't land Taijuan Walker or a prospect of that ilk, when Tampa Bay was able to net Wil Myers with two years of control (not for cheap either) on a 31 year old James Shields. Couldn't pry Andrelton Simmons away from the Braves either. Couldn't convince Texas to give you one of Andrus or Profar. Sorta feels like the DBacks weren't able to get a premium return, truly cash in on a king's ransom, for one of the best assets in all of baseball. Can't help but think they misplayed their hand a bit, even with all that outfield depth. I know Kirk Gibson wants "grinders", but the Arizona front office could've done better. The Braves package isn't nearly as exciting as the Mariners package. I think the DBacks made out okay, but the Braves made out better. And as Wombat says, it's a brilliant bit of marketing for the Braves to have Upton-Upton-Heyward in their outfield for years to come.

Edited by HeavyFog

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SenorGato    13,222

The Home/Road splits thing is stupid. It's obvious that Upton has the talent to play anywhere, he just happens to have had a top 3 hitter's park for his home park.

You'd rather have Delgado than Teheran?

YES! A hundred times, yes!

Someone's going to find out Teheran was or is injured this year. He did not look good at all last year.

Perceived ceiling schmerceived ceiling. Delgado's bigger, healthier, throws just as hard, has outstanding secondary stuff, is healthier, is bigger, is better mechanically, is healthier, is bigger....Teheran is a name at this point, and he was always a little overrated to start.

Either way, you didn't land Taijuan Walker or a prospect of that ilk, when Tampa Bay was able to net Wil Myers with two years of control (not for cheap either) on a 31 year old James Shields.

They landed a defensive infielder who's posted 5 rWAR in two of the past there years, and put up 6 fWAR last year. Why does everyone just throw that out? Not just you, it's popular on the internet in general...It's so unbelievably irritating how everyone became a prospect guy one year on the internet and with that the value of prospects exploded on the internet. Hell, look at Shields. When he was a Ray, EVERYONE was on his dick as a well hidden ace within the game. Fast forward one trade where he lands a precious top prospect, another one some Baseball Men seem to not like nearly as much as the internet, and he's just some 31 year old with only two years of control who benefited from being a Ray. That's ignoring that they also got the very high upside Wade Davis, at worst a bullpen ace and very possibly a 2-3 starter.

That Braves outfield is porn THO. Huge fan of both Uptons. BJ catches alot of short sighted garbage for not being 2007 BJ Upton all the time (he wrecked his shoulder the next year), but there is a sh*t ton to like about his numbers. If they can get his defense coached up then it's game over. They should be excited to play Wright 19 times.

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WWWWombat    1,194

They should be excited to play Wright 19 times.

My friend had a roommate in college who played HS baseball against all those guys.

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Blackout    63,130

great potential for this years Braves team...or at least the outfielders :D

also must be rejuvenating for BJ to play with his brother, he won't want to get shown up and might player harder than he did in TAmpa

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SenorGato    13,222

My friend had a roommate in college who played HS baseball against all those guys.

I feel bad for the pitchers they faced growing up. I wonder if any one of those guys went on to the majors or if all just gave up on their baseball dreams.

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HeavyFog    26

Perceived ceiling schmerceived ceiling. Delgado's bigger, healthier, throws just as hard, has outstanding secondary stuff, is healthier, is bigger, is better mechanically, is healthier, is bigger....Teheran is a name at this point, and he was always a little overrated to start.

...

Hell, look at Shields. When he was a Ray, EVERYONE was on his dick as a well hidden ace within the game. Fast forward one trade where he lands a precious top prospect, another one some Baseball Men seem to not like nearly as much as the internet, and he's just some 31 year old with only two years of control who benefited from being a Ray. That's ignoring that they also got the very high upside Wade Davis, at worst a bullpen ace and very possibly a 2-3 starter.

You can cry "schmerceived ceiling" all you want, but the fact of the matter is, Teheran is regarded as a blue-chip prospect and Delgado isn't. Prospects are often a means to an end. You don't need to be in love with Teheran, but he could assuredly net you a better return than Delgado if you were to flip him in a follow up deal. I might even personally side with you on the Delgado/Teheran debate, but that's besides the point. It's wrong to characterize it as a slam dunk in Delgado's favor, and it's a mistake to think that perceived value doesn't have any importance.

You really lost me on the whole James Shields breakdown. So Teheran is just a name but there's "very high upside" with Wade Davis? What planet are you from? You sound like the type of dude who drafts Wade Davis and Rick Porcello every year for their fantasy team, banking on that sky high upside we've been hearing about for five years, only to finish in 8th place in your league every season.

You talk about Shields as if there's suddenly been some dramatic and unwarranted shift in the public's opinion of him. It's not complicated. He's on the wrong side of 30 now and he's not inexpensive. He's only under team control for two more years. Are those things not supposed to matter? Are we just supposed to assume that James Shields will bang out season after season that's a carbon copy of his 2011 production? People age/decline. That's an actual thing. And who said anything about Shields benefiting from being a Ray? I've never heard that narrative. He's a good pitcher, nobody is saying he isn't. Heck, he's a very good pitcher, but he's never been a true ace.

The Shields/Myers trade was piss poor for Kansas City, period. And it wasn't just Myers that KC parted with, they gave up an absolute cupboard of many of their top prospects for James Shields and Wade freaking Davis. This from a Royals organization that should be in full rebuild mode. If you think KC made out well in that deal then you need a CAT scan.

I'm not trying to dump on Martin Prado. I hadn't said anything negative about him. Dude's a real good player as you point out (and the only foul ball I've ever caught was hit by him at an inter-league game in Fenway!) but he's only under team control for one season, and is reportedly seeking a contract in the neighborhood of 70-75mil / 5yr. That, in large part, is what you want to give up three years of a cost-controlled Justin Upton for? Really? I'd rather not shell out big bucks to get Prado's age 30-35 seasons. I agree with you that people tend to be a bit infatuated with prospects, but you can't honestly tell me with a straight face that Atlanta's package is as appealing as Seattle's. If James Shields can get you a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, then you should've gotten more for Justin Upton. Prospects or not, you should've gotten more. Simple as that. Arizona put themselves in a sh*tty position by forcing their own hand.

Edited by HeavyFog

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SenorGato    13,222
Teheran is* regarded as a blue-chip prospect and Delgado isn't.

*was

/fixed

Edited by SenorGato

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SenorGato    13,222

Actually **** it, it's baseball:

So Teheran is just a name but there's "very high upside" with Wade Davis?

Davis is:

- Bigger

- Healthier

- Has had significant major league success already

- Throws just as hard

- Came up in arguably the premiere minor league development system in the league

- Is only 26

- Is bigger

- More healthy

- Has had major league success

Stuff like this is why prospect lists are overrated. Though in defense of the lists Teheran did fall this year.

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HeavyFog    26

*was

/fixed

Haha you may be right. I'll concede his stock has taken a big hit the last year. It'll be interesting to see where both Delgado & Teheran are at in a few years, I could see the pendulum swinging either way. In the last year or so, Atlanta has quietly shed a lot of young arms (Hanson/Jurrjens/Delgado) that were considered integral building blocks not too long ago. The Braves rotation will still be stout, but it won't be the overflowing well of young talent it's been in recent years.

Edited by HeavyFog

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HeavyFog    26

Guaranteed that most GMs would pay far more for Teheran than Davis. Wade Davis is okay. He's had some success, and he's also had a healthy dosage of mediocre. Wade Davis falls in the Scott Baker tier of pitchers. Teheran has #1 upside.

Edited by HeavyFog

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SenorGato    13,222

The only healthy arm who was throwing well in 2012 in that trio was Delgado. Delgado doesn't have Teheran's hype, but overall I think he is the better bet to have a ten year career.

It's a fair trade at worst for me, and alot better for Arizona than most people think. Upton is getting ~40 million in the three years before he hits FA so this wasn't some bargain buy here. Braves think he'll be good, which is probably a good idea.

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HeavyFog    26

The only healthy arm who was throwing well in 2012 in that trio was Delgado. Delgado doesn't have Teheran's hype, but overall I think he is the better bet to have a ten year career.

And I agree with you on this sentiment. If I were Atlanta, I probably would've actively shopped Teheran instead of Delgado for this reason. Teheran would bring back a lot in a trade, and he's far from a sure thing.

Edited by HeavyFog

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SenorGato    13,222
Guaranteed that most GMs would pay far more for Teheran than Davis. Wade Davis is okay. He's had some success, and he's also had a healthy dosage of mediocre. Wade Davis falls in the Scott Baker tier of pitchers. Teheran has #1 upside.

Upside is overrated. Davis was a top prospect considered to have TOR upside when he was in the minors as well, and still has the same tools. Still throws hard, still has two breaking balls, and has improved his mechanics in the bullpen. At worst he's a really good relief ace, like he was last year, but as a starter he could still has good 'ol upside on his side as well. He's just two years removed from 184 innings in the rotation and two years removed from 168 solid innings at 24.

Wade Davis is 27.

That's still a young pitcher.

Edited by SenorGato

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HeavyFog    26

Upside is overrated. Davis was a top prospect considered to have TOR upside when he was in the minors as well, and still has the same tools. Still throws hard, still has two breaking balls, and has improved his mechanics in the bullpen. At worst he's a really good relief ace, like he was last year, but as a starter he could still has good 'ol upside on his side as well. He's just two years removed from 184 innings in the rotation and two years removed from 168 solid innings at 24.

- Yes, Davis was once a top prospect. No longer. At this point, I think he's a fairly known entity with a solid floor, but he's not that amazing.

- How can you honestly think 2012 is a worst case scenario for Wade Davis going forward? That's the second time you've said as much. Last year was a career year for him. He could easily go back to being the so-so pitcher he was before, or close to it. Even with last year, his career FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all well over 4.00, and his ERA isn't that far behind. His body of work is solid, but hardly awesome. Okay, now remind me of how big and sturdy Davis and Delgado are again.

Edited by HeavyFog

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HeavyFog    26

I think I consider Wade Davis far more replaceable than you do. And I think that's why most GMs, particularly for rebuilding or small market franchises, would gladly take a calculated gamble on a Teheran prototype over a Wade Davis. The allure of upside. And that's precisely why I'd want Teheran over Davis myself - because he's better trade bait.

Edited by HeavyFog

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SenorGato    13,222

- Yes, Davis was once a top prospect. No longer. At this point, I think he's a fairly known entity with a solid floor, but he's not that amazing

- How can you honestly think 2012 is a worst case scenario for Wade Davis going forward? That's the second time you've said as much. Last year was a career year for him. He could easily go back to being the so-so pitcher he was before, or close to it. Even with last year, his career FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all well over 4.00.

What if 2010 was Teheran's career year? What's he done to make you think otherwise? 68 innings was a career year? I saw a pitcher who thrived while developing his repertoire and mechanics in a reduced role throwing vital relief innings rather than vital starter innings. What makes up "that amazing" anyway? Solid floor is already better than prospecting for innings.

Some AL East young pitchers who have thrived leaving the division after mediocre but promising starts to their careers:

Ted Lilly

Matt Garza

Chris Carpenter

AJ Burnett

Tyler Clippard

There's more but that's a good list.

Not to mention that there's precedence for a young pitcher who broke out as a reliever after struggling as a MLer then put together a strong season as a SP. Jeff Samardzija 2011-2012 and Lance Lynn 2011-2012 just from last year. David Price was in the bullpen for the Rays' 2008 WS team. To me he's a power arm with good breaking stuff, durability, and the ability to give high quality rotation innings.

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SenorGato    13,222

I think I consider Wade Davis far more replaceable than you do. And I think that's why most GMs, particularly for rebuilding or small market franchises, would gladly take a calculated gamble on a Teheran prototype over a Wade Davis. The allure of upside. And that's precisely why I'd want Teheran over Davis myself - because he's better trade bait.

It'll go away. It's more on the internet anyway. Why not consider that the D'Backs just didn't want Teheran and that the unofficial rankings are not all that big a deal? So far all Teheran's upside and arbitrary trade value has gotten the Braves a few nothing innings during two callups and a declining prospect status.

Edited by SenorGato

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HeavyFog    26

What makes up "that amazing" anyway?

- A dude with better than strictly so-so career numbers and/or good potential. So not Wade Davis.

Edited by HeavyFog

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HeavyFog    26

It'll go away. It's more on the internet anyway. Why not consider that the D'Backs just didn't want Teheran and that the unofficial rankings are not all that big a deal? So far all Teheran's upside and arbitrary trade value has gotten the Braves a few nothing innings during two callups and a declining prospect status.

Teheran is 22 years old and has pitched all of 26.0 innings in the big leagues. It's called "potential" because the production hasn't happened yet. We know Davis isn't great; Teheran still has a chance to be. He was B.A.'s #5 prospect going into each of the last two seasons, and had monster numbers as recently as 2011. I don't think you're reading what I'm writing. Again, I've already said that Teheran/Delgado are relatively close, so it's entirely possible that Arizona could've preferred the "safer" Delgado. Or maybe it was the Braves who insisted on keeping Teheran. Who knows. Both are very nice trade chips. Teheran could easily be a bust, I'm not discounting that chance, but that doesn't change the fact he's a far more attractive commodity than Davis right now. And probably will be a year from now. I'm sure if me and you were co-GMs of the Braves we would've already traded Teheran.

Edited by HeavyFog

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