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Great article about positional value in the NFL, and how it pertains to paying Revis from NYJetsCap.com

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#1 slats

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:24 PM

Great article about positional value in the NFL, and how it pertains to paying Revis from http://nyjetscap.com...ionalvalue.html (click the link to read the table more easily).

Positional Value. That’s really the crux of what we are talking about when we are talking about Darrelle Revis. It’s not about the Jets not having the money to pay Revis. It’s not about Woody Johnson feeling slighted that his star corner constantly is making a push to earn more money. It’s not about the Jets not being able to fit Darrelle Revis under their current salary cap structure. It’s about positional value.

I’m not going to delve deep into statistical analysis or anything else, I’m just going to talk in generalities about the game and the way it has been reflected in salaries at the positions. I think we can all agree that the NFL is now a passing league, something very different than what it was 8 or 9 years ago. There is only one player that touches the ball on every offensive snap and that is the QB. QB’s are the primary ballholder on about 60% of the snaps and are responsible for nearly 70% of all yardage. They are irreplaceable on the field and thus get paid the most money. As you cycle through everything kind of builds off that point. The Left Tackle is expected to keep the player upright and in general is paid more than an average starting Wide Receiver. The WR catches the ball from the QB and would logically get paid a lot of money. Running backs generate the next level of yards and then they are followed by Right Tackles, Centers, and Guards, who are all closely paid.

Defense kind of builds on that point as well. The 43 Defensive End and 34 Outside Linebacker earn the most money. Why? Like a QB they can factor in every play. They pressure the primary offense generator in the QB. They also are expected to contain the running game. Cornerbacks would rank next because they stop the wideouts. You can follow that with the interior defenders who are expected to stop the run and potentially pressure the QB, albeit to a far lesser extent than the outside rushers. You then have your safeties and the 43 OLBs and 34 DE’s that are seen more as pieces than difference makers.

In general almost every team follows the model when it comes to positional spend. The only strange one is Right Tackle where basically nobody is paid to be a Right Tackle (the top 10 is only around $6 million per year and the average starter makes less than $3 million a year and that includes two players originally paid to play the left side) even though at this point they are nearly as important as a Left Tackle due to the numerous shifts defenses use with their pass rushers. But again that has been the market that the league has determined. In Revis’ case he fits into a grouping where the highest paid player makes $12 million a year (Nnamdi Asomugha) and the 10th highest paid player, who I think is Dunta Robinson, makes 9.5 million. So it’s a narrow spread. Drew Brees makes $20 million a year while Mark Sanchez makes just under $13.75. Mario Williams makes $16 million while Tamba Hali makes $11.5 million. Yes there is a premium to be paid for great talent, but the question becomes how much.

There are a handful of players that come to mind that were able to “break the system”. Those players on offense were Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Adrian Peterson, where I think its an easier sell because you produce yards. Defensively the only player that would be close is Calais Campbell who plays 34 Defensive End and makes a great living doing so. N’damukong Suh also fits the bill at DT, but his salary was based on draft status rather than positional value, so he is someone we won’t really count. Campbell earned his money as a pass rusher who just happens to play in a 34 set and really fits the normal salary allocations when you consider his pay is based on a scale given to the pass rushers.

It should be noted that Calvin Johnson and Peterson were follow the leader deals in that the high market was set before they signed their contracts so the real groundbreakers were Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson. The only real defensive player in recent memory to break the system was Nnamdi Asomugha when he played with the Oakland Raiders, who probably have the worst cap management in the history of the NFL. As soon as the Asomugha contract ended he immediately was recycled back into the normal ranges when he signed with the Eagles in 2011.

As always I may have a few numbers off here and there in my own player database I keep, but in general here is the difference in spending between the number 1 and number 5 player at each position, keeping in mind that we are using the position at the time of signing not where they play now (i.e Jerod Mayo is an ILB not a 43 OLB, Dave Diehl not a RT, Richard Seymour a DE not a DT, etc…). I don’t think errors in my record keeping will make a large material difference, but if you notice something feel free to email me about it. The average increase was 35.6%.

Position High Salary 5th Highest Salary Percent Increase
WR $16,207,143 $9,700,000 67.1%
RB $14,213,333 $8,619,500 64.9%
34DE $11,000,000 $7,100,000 54.9%
DT $12,227,000 $8,009,000 52.8%
43OLB $8,120,000 $5,716,250 42.1%
S $9,886,667 $7,000,000 41.2%
C $8,186,000 $6,000,000 36.4%
G $9,500,000 $7,200,000 31.9%
43DE/34OLB $16,000,000 $12,666,667 26.3%
QB $20,000,000 $16,000,000 25.0%
TE $9,000,000 $7,235,000 24.4%
CB $12,000,000 $10,000,000 20.0%
RT $6,510,625 $5,500,000 18.4%
LT $11,500,000 $9,762,500 17.8%
ILB $10,000,000 $9,000,000 11.1%

Revis is certainly looking to be a trendsetter at the position and hit those Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson ranges. In fairness to Revis if he wants to sell himself as a difference maker there are those 4 deals to point to. I don’t think the Campbell deal holds any relevance because if he was in a different base defense the pay would be somewhere like 10th or 11th at the position if he continued to be a rusher and 2nd or 3rd if they moved him inside. If I were advising Revis I would change my public message to discuss those contracts rather than the Mario Williams one because it is not a battle he can win, IMO, because like a WR and a RB a guy who sacks the QB makes noticeable contributions that a corner can not match unless he picks off 8 passes of which 4 or 5 go for scores. The PR move is look at Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson and state that if teams are paying WR’s this much its only logical that a corner get paid the same to hold him in check.

From the Jets point of view a few things need to be noted. The constant in many of these cases is that the teams stink. The Cardinals are a bad football team and for all of that salary Fitzgerald gave them 798 yards because the QB situation is so bad. Calvin Johnson put up incredible numbers on a team that won 4 games and was force fed the ball to put up those statistics. The Lions won 4 games this year. Chris Johnson was in danger of being cut last season and will likely be cut sometime next week from a 6 win Titans team. The Raiders were a complete joke when Asomugha took up all that cap room. The lone exception is Peterson who deserves the MVP this year and carried a bad Vikings team into the playoffs. Peterson, in my analysis, contributed over 350 yards of offense over an average player. Would Revis do the same?

Based on Revis’ asking price of $16 million a year he is looking to be paid at a rate that is 60% higher than the 5th highest player at the position. That is asking to “break the system” like Fitzgerald and Johnson were able to do. Complicating matters is that Revis is supposedly asking for $60 million in guarantees. While guarantees do not necessarily mean anything that number puts him in a different stratosphere than anyone else. Fitzgerald received $20 million in full guarantees and $45 million in virtual guarantees. Chris Johnson only received $13 million in full guarantees and maybe $21 million in virtual guarantees. Peterson had a full guarantee of about $24 million and a virtual guarantee around $37 million. Calvin Johnson received the best deal with $48.75 fully guaranteed upon signing.

If Revis is looking for $60 million in full guarantees or even virtual guarantees, which to me are skill guarantees, it is completely out of whack with what anyone received. If you go back to 2010 when Revis was in a bitter holdout with the Jets and there were plenty of stories written about the bad deals signed by other players on the Jets, even though they were signing deals in line with what other teams were doing, I can give you 3 guesses as to who was leaking the stories on those deals. At one point Revis’ business manager took to Twitter to compare a certain players agent to Master P, who, for anyone who follows the business side of the NFL, was the biggest joke of an agent of all time. So when I hear $60 million I have to think $60 million firm, not injury only or of the rolling variety.

So that is really the story we have with Revis. The average markup for greatest at the spot would be $13.56 million with about $33.9 million guaranteed. Putting him in the reasonable range would be a contract around $14.5 million with $36 million guaranteed. Remember that this would not include the current year at $6 million so the real numbers would be 6 years $73.8-$78 million. Revis likely wants 6 years for 96 million and $60 million in firm guarantees. It completely blows up the positional value and “breaks the system”. That’s the real story that we should all be considering. Not the fact that he is home grown and we love to have his jersey on gameday. If he is worth “breaking the system” we should join the ranks of the Cardinals, Titans, Vikings, and Raiders. If not we shouldn’t hold it against him for trying to get it from another team nor against the Jets for not giving it to him. That’s the decision that the Jets are facing. Completely disregard the rest of the league and go all in or make the tough decision to let a Hall of Fame talent go away in his prime and get whatever you can back from another club. It will be an interesting month to say the least….
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#2 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:27 PM

We all agree that 16 per is an unreasonable number.

the assumption that he will only agree to a contract of 16 per year is I believe a flawed assumption. It's a starting point for negotiation. Part of the reason to put him on the block is to get Revis' agents in front of other teams, to see what the real market is for this player.

It's highly questionable that is what Revis is gonna make, whoever is paying him, especially coming off a year where he missed 13 games with a leg injury.
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#3 Larz

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 03:12 PM

my main worry about revis is that CB can simply be avoided. yeah, it helps you roll coverage, but in this mis-match league, they just throw to a TE or RB of you double a WR and put revis on another

or remember the colts and pats* just going 3 WR sets and picking on the nickel ?

the only player worth that much money on defense is an every down front 7 player who can rush the passer and commands double team blocking

it's such a tough pickle for idzik. trading him hurts the cap, letting him walk is a catastrophe, yet revis has never shown he will take anything less than "the most" on a contract

if idzik signs revis to a reasonable extension, he has to be considered a straight up stud GM
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#4 slats

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 03:23 PM

my main worry about revis is that CB can simply be avoided. yeah, it helps you roll coverage, but in this mis-match league, they just throw to a TE or RB of you double a WR and put revis on another

or remember the colts and pats* just going 3 WR sets and picking on the nickel ?

the only player worth that much money on defense is an every down front 7 player who can rush the passer and commands double team blocking

it's such a tough pickle for idzik. trading him hurts the cap, letting him walk is a catastrophe, yet revis has never shown he will take anything less than "the most" on a contract

if idzik signs revis to a reasonable extension, he has to be considered a straight up stud GM


I agree. Revis is a tremendous asset against teams with a franchise-type WR, and little else in the passing game, but not nearly as big a factor against a team like the Pats who spread the ball around. A front seven guy who's getting after the passer every pass play, and who should also be a factor in run support, is a much greater asset. Love Revis, but positionally he only can do so much for your team.

This is why you see franchise OTs falling out of favor, too. Teams just move their best pass rusher away from the great left tackles now. Simple as that.

If you're going to commit $12-$16M/year to a player, it needs to be a player who dictates his influence in a game. Not one who gets dictated to.
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#5 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 03:39 PM

A front seven guy who's getting after the passer every pass play, and who should also be a factor in run support, is a much greater asset.


as is a franchise QB. but wanting to save money for these guys when they aren't on the roster is counting chickens.
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#6 slats

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 03:50 PM

as is a franchise QB. but wanting to save money for these guys when they aren't on the roster is counting chickens.


You have to allocate your resources wisely, regardless of what you currently have. You need to be in position to spend for the more important pieces.
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#7 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 03:54 PM

You have to allocate your resources wisely, regardless of what you currently have. You need to be in position to spend for the more important pieces.



There is a salary cap floor this year for the first time, every team will have to spend 89% of the cap, that's 108 mil roughly.

In other words they are gonna pay someone. It might as well be Revis.

Edited by bitonti, 31 January 2013 - 03:54 PM.

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#8 slats

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:01 PM

There is a salary cap floor this year for the first time, every team will have to spend 89% of the cap, that's 108 mil roughly.

In other words they are gonna pay someone. It might as well be Revis.


Jets will have no problem reaching the floor with or without Revis.

And frankly, in 2013, you can take floor to mean the bottom of the salary scale or last place in the division. Both will be easily attainable with or without Revis.
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#9 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:01 PM

From the Jets point of view a few things need to be noted. The constant in many of these cases is that the teams stink. The Cardinals are a bad football team and for all of that salary Fitzgerald gave them 798 yards because the QB situation is so bad. Calvin Johnson put up incredible numbers on a team that won 4 games and was force fed the ball to put up those statistics. The Lions won 4 games this year. Chris Johnson was in danger of being cut last season and will likely be cut sometime next week from a 6 win Titans team. The Raiders were a complete joke when Asomugha took up all that cap room. The lone exception is Peterson who deserves the MVP this year and carried a bad Vikings team into the playoffs. Peterson, in my analysis, contributed over 350 yards of offense over an average player. Would Revis do the same?


This is what I've been trying to express in the thread.

And, as you point out, neutralizing the best WR in the league requires nothing more than having a good TE or good WR2. Sure, Revis helps against players like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. But, those guys are both on losing teams, so how are teams without Revis still beating them?

Most people can buy a 7-series, it doesn't mean they should, and it does mean they'll have to make big sacrifices in other places in their life, so they're left with a nice car and not much else.

Edited by tEYbow, 31 January 2013 - 04:04 PM.

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#10 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:08 PM

Most people can buy a 7-series, it doesn't mean they should, and it does mean they'll have to make big sacrifices in other places in their life, so they're left with a nice car and not much else.


to use this metaphor the choice isn't between a 7 series and a honda. It's between a 7 series and nothing.

The Jets haven't found a QB worth paying big money since 1969 why does everyone believe it's gonna happen next year and the money can't go to Revis cause it's going to this awesome fictional QB? or the awesome pass rusher that also doesn't exist.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

Edited by bitonti, 31 January 2013 - 04:08 PM.

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#11 slats

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:15 PM

to use this metaphor the choice isn't between a 7 series and a honda. It's between a 7 series and nothing.


So what's the plan? To never have an elite pass rusher or QB?

You don't buy that 7 Series when you're in the market for new house, because if you do, all of a sudden you'll realize you can't afford a mortgage payment anymore when you find the right place. Unless you trade that car in for a cheaper model and a couple draft picks. :)
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#12 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:15 PM

to use this metaphor the choice isn't between a 7 series and a honda. It's between a 7 series and nothing.

The Jets haven't found a QB worth paying big money since 1969 why does everyone believe it's gonna happen next year and the money can't go to Revis cause it's going to this awesome fictional QB? or the awesome pass rusher that also doesn't exist.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush


That is only if you make it a 7-series or nothing. Lets say you don't own a 90K car. Does that mean you don't spend your money on other elements of your life, because you don't have a high end luxury car? Or, do you have an apartment/home, decent to nice car, take vacations, go out to dinners.

WIth the extra money, the Jets could improve the QB position, the LB position, and the team as a whole. They would not be married to a player at one position, a position that can easily be schemed around.

Further, statistically, the Jets defense wasn't really any worse without Revis. You could make the argument, pretty easily, that the loss of Holmes > loss of Revis. So, maybe we don't even have that bird in hand you speculate about. Then again, as you would still have D-Rob and Gholston on this roster (cutting them doesn't make the team better), at least your position of not trying to improve the team in favor of an individual is logically consistent.
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#13 SenorGato

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:25 PM

A good fair read.

I still say pay the man unless the offer from someone else is unbelievable. Not enough is being considered about how the Jets won't be paying big money to a QB for a while.

I also this "schemed around" stuff is nonsense..."Schemed around" is the latest in Jets fans' negative spin tech...Another way to put it is "he eliminates a whole side of the field for offenses"...It's actually how most used to put it until it came time to think about paying him.

The answer to the Jets' problems at QB, WR, and OLB is not money. They paid for Holmes. They paid for Edwards. They paid for Sanchez. They paid for Favre. They paid for Pennington. Those positions are not cap issues, they are talent issues. The draft is the route for this stuff. You can't preach draft, draft, draft and coaches control QB production only to turn around and go "no, we need the money for QB and other positions." Trading Revis doesn't make any progress towards fixing those positions, it just potentially makes room to overpay someone else or two to fill one or two of those holes.

Edited by SenorGato, 31 January 2013 - 04:29 PM.

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#14 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:27 PM

A good fair read.

I still say pay the man unless the offer from someone else is unbelievable. Not enough is being considered about how the Jets won't be paying big money to a QB for a while.

I also this "schemed around" stuff is nonsense..."Schemed around" is the latest in Jets fans' negative spin tech...Another way to put it is "he eliminates a whole side of the field for offenses"...It's actually how most used to put it until it came time to think about paying him.


He doesn't eliminate the whole side of a field. He eliminates 1 player... a large part of the time.

It's also not a scheme, it's a tradition set where you have more than 1 pass catcher on the field.

Edited by tEYbow, 31 January 2013 - 04:27 PM.

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#15 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:28 PM

You don't buy that 7 Series when you're in the market for new house, because if you do, all of a sudden you'll realize you can't afford a mortgage payment anymore when you find the right place. Unless you trade that car in for a cheaper model and a couple draft picks. :)


don't you mean if you find the right place.
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#16 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:30 PM

WIth the extra money, the Jets could improve the QB position,


how? by signing matt flynn? drafting Matt Barkley?
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#17 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:30 PM

don't you mean if you find the right place.


By this logic, your financial advice would be to buy the most expensive car possible, because you may never find/be able to afford the house you want.
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#18 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:31 PM

how? by signing matt flynn? drafting Matt Barkley?


Bringing in Matt Moore improves the QB position, and leaves us with money to invest elsewhere.
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#19 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:37 PM

Bringing in Matt Moore improves the QB position, and leaves us with money to invest elsewhere.


that's not exactly Revis type money. What big investments could the Jets make that have as much effect as keeping revis? My point is there is no Drew Brees on the market nor will there ever be a clear cut franchise QB on the market. Draft a QB is cheap. we are concerned about saving money for no reason
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#20 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:38 PM

By this logic, your financial advice would be to buy the most expensive car possible, because you may never find/be able to afford the house you want.



these metaphors have gotten really twisted because in these scenarios there are like 5 houses and all of them have families living in them. Is the 7 series the best thing to spend your money on? Yes... given the options. If we play madden football and redraft the league then no. But that's not the situation.
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#21 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:39 PM

that's not exactly Revis type money. What big investments could the Jets make that have as much effect as keeping revis? My point is there is no Drew Brees on the market nor will there ever be a clear cut franchise QB on the market. Draft a QB is cheap. we are concerned about saving money for no reason


It's not about next year. It's about the future. As jason's article points out, the teams that over invest in non-QBs are trend badly.
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#22 gEYno

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:40 PM

these metaphors have gotten really twisted because in these scenarios there are like 5 houses and all of them have families living in them. Is the 7 series the best thing to spend your money on? Yes... given the options. If we play madden football and redraft the league then no. But that's not the situation.


No, because it's not about the QB necessarily. You can take the 60 M guaranteed (obviously it wont end up that much, but even 2/3 is insane), you can disperse the money and make the team better as a whole.

Jets D really didn't take a significant step back w/o Revis.
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#23 SenorGato

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:48 PM

He doesn't eliminate the whole side of a field. He eliminates 1 player... a large part of the time.

It's also not a scheme, it's a tradition set where you have more than 1 pass catcher on the field.


1. Eliminating an offense's best pass catcher, which he does the vast majority of the time he's out there, is kind of a big deal.

2. He's a factor in what happens on the rest of that half of the field. .

3. Scheme isn't my word so none of that please.
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#24 stugotz81

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:49 PM

I can't wait to see the tone of everyone here when the Jets are officially without Revis....and were watching kyle wilson chasing every WR into the endzone.....or even better, watching kyle wilson throw his hands in the air when the WR catches the ball behind him.....i understand the whole cap thing, and if he leaves next year then we get nothing like we could now...cross that bridge when it comes imo....as for next year, i want Revis....he is a difference maker on every single play. make it happen idzik
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#25 bitonti

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:51 PM

all of this talk about "just" removing the other team's best WR neglects the effect of leadership and what having Revis around means. It's not a coincidence that the team was 2-1 and collapsed after he went down. Yes the pass defense was 2nd. The team went 6-10 and you can't tell me Revis wasn't a part of that. He's not Ray Lewis level of vocal but Revis is the Jets leader.
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