67 replies to this topic

[SenorGato]

John Abraham is worth the 9th pick in any draft. I agree Mingo has flaws but I don't agree with the extent they should be held against him. The production one is as close to it gets as a real flaw, but if you watch him play he's clearly one of the few game changing type talents in this draft. While it's nice to draft a guy for what he did in college because you're a little more sure, the fact is that teams are drafting guys on what they are going to do/can learn to do in the NFL. 

Edited by SenorGato, 13 February 2013 - 03:38 PM.

[bitonti]

here are some relevant links... I really liked the quote about Mingo "drafting for potential" 

 

Can Mingo play OLB? 

http://www.nola.com/...draft_lsus.html

 

Dion Jordan profile

http://www.ohio.com/...ksEnabled=false

[derp]

I still think there's more questions about Jones than just his medical. How many 6'3, 241 3-4 OLB's do you see in the league? Apparently spinal stenosis makes it harder to hit the weights, will he be able to bulk up? He's not a big guy, already struggled vs the run in college. Gets a lot of his production either running around guys or on coverage sacks. Doesn't do a tremendous job disengaging from blockers. Nice motor, but that's not consistently getting you to the QB in the NFL. Played with a good supporting cast. Far from an elite athlete. Von Miller I got as a stud coming into the NFL when I watched him, just don't see it with Jones. He's good, but more of a right place right time guy than a dominant player.

[SenorGato]

I still think there's more questions about Jones than just his medical. How many 6'3, 241 3-4 OLB's do you see in the league? Apparently spinal stenosis makes it harder to hit the weights, will he be able to bulk up? He's not a big guy, already struggled vs the run in college. Gets a lot of his production either running around guys or on coverage sacks. Doesn't do a tremendous job disengaging from blockers. Nice motor, but that's not consistently getting you to the QB in the NFL. Played with a good supporting cast. Far from an elite athlete. Von Miller I got as a stud coming into the NFL when I watched him, just don't see it with Jones. He's good, but more of a right place right time guy than a dominant player.

 

Kinda agree with this, specifically because he's not an elite athlete AND he's injured. 

[bitonti]

if Jarvis was a perfect prospect he goes top 3. IF he slips to 9 you can't let him pass. This whole discussion could be for naught as he's still probably a top 5 guy based on production in the SEC.  

[SenorGato]

Why can't you let him pass at 9? Isn't the fact that he even makes it to 9 a major red flag for a guy who has put up his kind of numbers in the SEC? Wouldn't anyone who is a perfect prospect go top 3 since that person would be perfect? What if his back overrides his college production?

I like Jones a whole lot as a prospect but I don't get how it's possible to pretend that back isn't an issue.

[bitonti]

 
I like Jones a whole lot as a prospect but I don't get how it's possible to pretend that back isn't an issue.

 

wanting a 10x pro bowler instead of a 3x pro bowler is counting chickens. Take the better prospect and let it play out. The (likely) alternative is to take a "high potential" guy with a perfect back who makes 0 pro bowls. 

[SenorGato]

Health plays significantly into what makes a guy a better prospect. I dont see why that needs to be brushed aside because you imagined I'm counting how many Pro Bowls #9 will make. There's a likely scenario where Jones never goes to a Pro Bowl and is out of the league in three years because physically his body won't hold up.

Greg Hardy was a beeeeeeeaaaaaast in college but fell to the 6th at least partially because of his significant injury history. None of Hardy's injuries will stick around like stenosis, and none affected the back and spine. Jones' fall won't be so dramatic maybe, but the more I think about it the less I feel he should be picked at 9.

Edited by SenorGato, 15 February 2013 - 11:16 AM.

[bitonti]

Health plays significantly into what makes a guy a better prospect. I dont see why that needs to be brushed aside because you imagined I'm counting how many Pro Bowls #9 will make. There's a likely scenario where Jones never goes to a Pro Bowl and is out of the league in three years because physically his body won't hold up.
 

 

I understand that risk and at 9, deem it acceptable. Again we are talking about a guy who goes 2 if he's clean. It's a value play at 9 and all of the prospects available at that spot will have questions. He really might not be there, so there's no sense in going to the mat on this issue. He very easily could go higher. Heck he still could go 2 even with the stenosis. FWIW michael irvin had this condition and performed at a really high level for a long time. 

Edited by bitonti, 15 February 2013 - 11:56 AM.

[SenorGato]

No lock Jones goes two if he's healthy. People like to say he's like Von Miller, but on top of monster production Miller was a freak athlete with an extremely high mental makeup. Also, the if game is dumb anyway. He fact is that he isn't healthy, he carries a back issue going into NFL football. You might as well slap a bullseye on him taking him so high (9) in the draft.

Edited by SenorGato, 15 February 2013 - 12:20 PM.

[bitonti]

No lock Jones goes two if he's healthy. People like to say he's like Von Miller, but on top of monster production Miller was a freak athlete with an extremely high mental makeup. Also, the if game is dumb anyway. He fact is that he isn't healthy, he carries a back issue going into NFL football. You might as well slap a bullseye on him taking him so high (9) in the draft.

 

 

Look at the draft as a whole you have Geno Smith making money against Baylor... Star making money on 6 career sacks. Ansah making money on 4 sacks.

 

 Jarvis 26 sacks in the SEC and multiple sacks against Bama is gold-plated production. Jarvis' film is awesome. 

 

I agree the Von Miller comparison is not ideal. He is more of an Orakpo. Which this team needs. 

Edited by bitonti, 15 February 2013 - 01:40 PM.

[#27TheDominator]

wanting a 10x pro bowler instead of a 3x pro bowler is counting chickens. Take the better prospect and let it play out. The (likely) alternative is to take a "high potential" guy with a perfect back who makes 0 pro bowls. 

 

This is an interesting argument coming from you.  I remember in the dark days you were biggest on the D'Brick over McNeill bandwagon.  There were plenty that liked to look at the draft in hindsight and think it would have been better to have McNeill and Cutler (or Ngata- the Leinart guys won't admit it) rather than D'Brick and Clemens and IIRC you were of the opinion that the back was a major issue in that move.  

[bitonti]

This is an interesting argument coming from you.  I remember in the dark days you were biggest on the D'Brick over McNeill bandwagon.  There were plenty that liked to look at the draft in hindsight and think it would have been better to have McNeill and Cutler (or Ngata- the Leinart guys won't admit it) rather than D'Brick and Clemens and IIRC you were of the opinion that the back was a major issue in that move.  

 

In general, I have been making comments about the Jets and the draft for almost 15 years. the only thing i can guarantee is inconsistency. 

 

In specific, by the standard of the draft, both were really good picks. One made 2 Pro Bowls, the other made 3 (and counting). that's success in both cases.

 

Full disclosure I always wanted Brick because he was from Long Island.  

[SenorGato]

Look at the draft as a whole you have Geno Smith making money against Baylor... Star making money on 6 career sacks. Ansah making money on 4 sacks.

 

 Jarvis 26 sacks in the SEC and multiple sacks against Bama is gold-plated production. Jarvis' film is awesome. 

 

I agree the Von Miller comparison is not ideal. He is more of an Orakpo. Which this team needs. 

 

1. Nobody drafts a 6'5" 340 pound DT for his sack totals. Geno Smith has more than just Baylor on his track record. Both guys are fully healthy.

 

2. His numbers are more exciting than watching him to be honest, but I won't deny he was a way better watch than most anyway.

 

3. Orakpo has all kinds of size on him as well as health. 

 

I like Jones, but the idea of him at 9 is at least as scary as it is exciting. In theory, he fits this D like a glove. In practice with full context it gets a whole lot cloudier. 

[bitonti]

1. Nobody drafts a 6'5" 340 pound DT for his sack totals. Geno Smith has more than just Baylor on his track record. Both guys are fully healthy.

 

2. His numbers are more exciting than watching him to be honest, but I won't deny he was a way better watch than most anyway.

 

agreed Geno has Clemson last year Orange bowl and film against Oklahoma. He also has several stinkers vs Texas, Syracuse etc. but that's a whole nother thread. Geno can make #1 money throwing at Indy. 

 

Jarvis was the best player on a defense stacked with good players (Jenkins, Ogletree, Rambo in this draft alone). #29 was a pure pass rusher, that's what Jets fans have screamed for years. 

 

Probably an outlyer situation that he's there. the names are  Werner, Moore, Mingo, Jordan (ansah?) could all go higher if Jarvis is the 1st OLB at 9 instead of the 5th DE that's value. 

[derp]

Where is the perfect fit for the Jets' defense? We're still talking about a guy who a. is REALLY small for a 3-4 OLB, doesn't have a huge frame, and will struggle to add weight anyway because it's harder to lift with those spine issues and b. is not great against the run and as much as Jets fans have been calling for a pure pass rusher for years stopping the run is prioritized by the Jets' defensive guys right now - Ryan wants to stop the run to set up third and long situations.

 

Plus, are we frankly sure that Ryan is going to be back next year? And if not, are we sure that we're sticking with a 3-4? If we're moving to a 4-3, is Jones really that good of a fit? His production is better than his tape, though his tape isn't bad it's not as good as some make it out to be. And he's not an elite athlete.

 

I don't know where this "if he's healthy he goes 2" talk comes from. Maybe because he's been hyped and productive and the draft is weak at the top this year, but he isn't even almost in Von Miller's league. Good, not great defensive prospect with serious medical issues. I'm not saying you have to pass at 9, but there are other guys I'd be thinking long and hard who have warts that I have an easier time getting over than Jones'.

 

Also, if we're comparing him to injured guys I can't help but think of Da'Quan Bowers a couple years back who was a consensus top of the draft guy early in the process but slipped to the second because of injury concerns. And FWIW, hasn't done much in the NFL.

Edited by derp, 16 February 2013 - 10:07 AM.

[bitonti]

Another reason i'm pro Jarvis is Gronk. I was very happy when the Pats drafted him, No one has a worse back that that guy. these days with deer antlers and growth you've got Peyton going to Germany for neck treatments, Ray Lewis playing 17 years at ILB and Adrian Peterson getting better after what would have been a crippling injury 10 years ago. and Gronk arguably best TE in the league. 

 

to answer the early question about why I was so against McNeil but pro Jarvis, as the 2000's morph into the 2010's i've got way more faith in medical science. Jarvis has a bad back, (which is an injury guys play with anyway) worst case he can grow a new back in 3 weeks.

 

he doesn't need to be 250 or 260 to play linebacker and pass rush. He's fine the way he is... a sackmaster. That's all we've ever wanted.

Edited by bitonti, 16 February 2013 - 12:28 PM.

[SenorGato]

The worst case scenario is that he can grow a new back in 3 years....Flooring.

[T0mShane]

John Abraham is worth the 9th pick in any draft. I agree Mingo has flaws but I don't agree with the extent they should be held against him. The production one is as close to it gets as a real flaw, but if you watch him play he's clearly one of the few game changing type talents in this draft. While it's nice to draft a guy for what he did in college because you're a little more sure, the fact is that teams are drafting guys on what they are going to do/can learn to do in the NFL.

One of the draft gurus said of Mingo: "You can watch five games on him and not see him make two plays" or some such. Raises ye old Gholston flag.

[bitonti]

The worst case scenario is that he can grow a new back in 3 years....Flooring.

 

Judges also would have accepted "install a bionic back" i can't explain exactly why today's star players are indestructible but basically they are. Terrell Suggs should not have been playing with a torn biceps, less than a year from achillies injury but there it is. If you have money  the well established rules of what the human body can endure don't apply.