49 replies to this topic

[Sperm Edwards]

Take as part of the price, the contract required to sign Revis.  Add to that the top offer we get out of all 31 other teams.  Say that's this year's #13 plus whatever (plus nothing else; plus a #2 or #3 next year; whatever), as is the present rumor.

 

With any other team's cost being $3M/year less than it would cost the Jets (which it is), if the top offer is this year's #13 plus whatever, why should we turn that down?  This would represent the best offer from any other NFL team.  This means it is the market-setting offer for Revis. By turning down that top offer we are effectively outbidding all 31 other teams.  Whatever the top deal is, if we turn it down it is the same as outbidding that team because we are surrendering those picks offered to us by the top-bidding team.  But it's worse.  We're outbidding that on top of the $3M/year additional it costs us compared to anyone else.  In other words, if Revis was $3M/year more expensive, his top offer would surely be even less.

Why is Revis worth more to the Jets in (a) draft pick value, and (b) in annual compensation, than to any other NFL team? Consider the things that decrease his trade value:

• History of lengthy holdout? check.
• History of publicly indicating he might not show up to camp after pocketing $24M the prior season? check.
• History of not-serious/nagging type injury during the season due to showing up out of shape after an extended holdout? check.
• History of serious injury? check.
• Hasn't seen an NFL field since that serious injury? check.

With all that, he still has tremendous value.  But it isn't the same as though he was a great, great CB with no check-marks next to all of these value-reducing traits.  

 

So if 31 other NFL teams don't think today he's worth two #1's "at least" (as some here have repeatedly indicated), even if they're very late #1 picks, then why should we place that value on him?

[bitonti]

If i read this correctly you are saying don't turn down the 1st round pick. Which is fairly reasonable. 

 

the question I have for you is why are the Bucs ambitious after a 7-9 season 4th in Nfc south while the Jets are screwed and rebuilding after 6-10 and 3rd in the AFC east. 

 

the easy answer is that the Bucs are wrong. But I wonder... 

[T0mShane]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

[unbanmadmike1]

I think Revis' value is TBD at this point and the Jets are doing the right thing letting this play out.

[slats]

Totally agree that it's all speculation until we see the value of the contract Revis signs. If the Jets get the #13 this year, and -say- a second next year, and Tampa pays Revis in excess of $12M/year, I'd say the Jets made a good move.

Bonus points if Revis holds out in the next two years.

[JADEDGREEN]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

 

So Tanny = Genius

[T0mShane]

Bonus points if Revis holds out in the next two years.

Pat Peterson is the next guy whose contract will trigger a Revis holdout, and Peterson's current deal only runs through 2014, which means that Arizona is going to have to sign him to huuuuuuuuge dollars after this season.

[T0mShane]

So Tanny = Genius

?

[CrazyCarl40]

If i read this correctly you are saying don't turn down the 1st round pick. Which is fairly reasonable. 

 

the question I have for you is why are the Bucs ambitious after a 7-9 season 4th in Nfc south while the Jets are screwed and rebuilding after 6-10 and 3rd in the AFC east. 

 

the easy answer is that the Bucs are wrong. But I wonder... 

 

Well, the easy answer is Freeman is a much better QB than anything the Jets have. Doug Martin is a much better running back than anything the Jets have.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are better receivers than the Jets have.  Hell, even old man Dallas Clark was a better TE last year than anything the Jets have.

 

And now, they have some pretty good defensive players too.  Tampa has a very good offensive squad but they couldn't stop the pass.  They have addressed that area of need and with someone like Darrelle Revis they could take the next step and easily be the 2nd place team ("4th" place was semantics) and a contender for a wild card. 

 

The Jets with Revis are still a 6-10 or worse team this coming season.  The Bucs with Revis and other additions could easily be 10-6 or better.

[JADEDGREEN]

?

 

You know!

 

P.S. Rex is insisting we are not shopping Revis, and we are going to be deadly this year.*

 

*Not as deadly has when he guarantees Super Bowls though.

[slats]

?

This is a valid reply to every JADEDGREEN post.

[JADEDGREEN]

This is a valid reply to every JADEDGREEN post.

 

What about every Brooklyn Jet post?

[Thor99]

What about every Brooklyn Jet post?

I'll miss you most of all, Scarecrow.

[Sperm Edwards]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

 

Idzik would not love that.

 

In the rosy scenario you've outlined, Revis plays out the year with a $9M cap hit in 2013.  To start 2014, Revis naturally voids the last 3 years of his deal so he becomes a FA the Jets have no rights or ties to (other than a 2015 compensatory draft pick).  Upon Revis voiding those last 3 years, the Jets would incur an accelerated $9M cap hit in 2014.  So if the Jets were to re-sign him, his 2014 cap number is the year-1 cap figure of his new contract plus $9M.  So IMO, Idzik would not love that.

 

And Revis option #2 isn't only bad for Revis.  It's bad for the Jets as well because instead of taking the best offer in the 2013 off-season/pre-season, we also will end up with nothing (other than the 2013 regular season with Revis, however long that is prior to that new injury).

[JADEDGREEN]

I'll miss you most of all, Scarecrow.

 

Oh Thorithy <3

Edited by JADEDGREEN, 19 March 2013 - 10:07 AM.

[unbanmadmike1]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

If Revis is allowed to become a UFA there is no way he's coming back here.

[stoicsentry]

Couldn't this line of reasoning be used to justify trading almost ANY player? Why not throw Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson and JJ Waat into the mix? Couldn't you say the same for all of them?

Edited by stoicsentry, 19 March 2013 - 10:10 AM.

[T0mShane]

Idzik would not love that.

In the rosy scenario you've outlined, Revis plays out the year with a $9M cap hit in 2013. To start 2014, Revis naturally voids the last 3 years of his deal so he becomes a FA the Jets have no rights or ties to (other than a 2015 compensatory draft pick). Upon Revis voiding those last 3 years, the Jets would incur an accelerated $9M cap hit in 2014. So if the Jets were to re-sign him, his 2014 cap number is the year-1 cap figure of his new contract plus $9M. So IMO, Idzik would not love that.

And Revis option #2 isn't only bad for Revis. It's bad for the Jets as well because instead of taking the best offer in the 2013 off-season/pre-season, we also will end up with nothing (other than the 2013 regular season with Revis, however long that is prior to that new injury).

I think he'll be traded, personally, but I also think its becoming clearer that teams are colluding to suppress top-dollar salaries, so I don't think Revis will ever see $15-$16 mil per, (nor will Pat Peterson). If and when Schwartz and Feinsod also come to that realization, they might find that remaining with the Jets is as worthwhile as leaving the Jets, especially if they get the $9 mil + in cash up front. It becomes a bitch if Revis walks, but unless Jerry Jones sweeps in with an absurd superdeal, I'm not sure that any owner or GM is going to break ranks to overpay Revis.

[Sperm Edwards]

Couldn't this line of reasoning be used to justify trading almost ANY player?

 

Yes.  Everyone has a certain value.  The only thing that complicates things are the cap implications from a given player's originating team if a lot of bonus money has been paid.  

 

How many draft picks would the Jets pay to acquire Aaron Rodgers? 5 number 1 picks? More? Everyone has a value above which no one will out-bid (or turn down).

 

But even if the top offer for Revis ends up being a mid-#1 in a top-weak draft plus whatever else, I'm sure Idzik will pass that on to any other potentially-interested team to see if they'll outbid it.  If the Jets turn it down, then the Jets are trading away those picks for Revis with a contract that will be voided after this rebuild season that won't result in a SB with or without Revis.

[unbanmadmike1]

Sperm Edwards, on 19 Mar 2013 - 11:21, said:
Yes. Everyone has a certain value. The only thing that complicates things are the cap implications from a given player's originating team if a lot of bonus money has been paid.

How many draft picks would the Jets pay to acquire Aaron Rodgers? 5 number 1 picks? More? Everyone has a value above which no one will out-bid (or turn down).

But even if the top offer for Revis ends up being a mid-#1 in a top-weak draft plus whatever else, I'm sure Idzik will pass that on to any other potentially-interested team to see if they'll outbid it. If the Jets turn it down, then the Jets are trading away those picks for Revis with a contract that will be voided after this rebuild season that won't result in a SB with or without Revis.

Yeah but the outcome of the negotiation isn't set in stone. How the Jets handle it will determine what they get.