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This Mock draft has us taking LSU Mingo at 9


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Rex was working out Margus Hunt at OLB today. I was picturing Idzik standing behind him going "Yeah, ok guy."

 

Rex worked out Coples in OLB drills last year. They're pro day drills...Zero predictive value. Hunt's workout numbers are within the realm of being able to flex into an OLB-esque role in the D on a given play in a given package. This is SOP for a workout on a guy that big and athletic that you try to force your little offseason agenda on. 

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9 is a high pick, bit. It's not ok to go draft an 80 tackle, 5 sack guy there. If they go OLB, he better be a double-digit sack guy or it's a bad pick.

 

 

Jets fans always have a higher expectation for the pick than reality. 9 is not 1. 

 

these are the last 20 9 picks. 

 

2012 Luke Kuechly Panthers 1 9 9 LB Boston College

2011 Tyron Smith Cowboys 1 9 9 T USC

2010 C.J. Spiller Bills 1 9 9 RB Clemson

2009 B.J. Raji Packers 1 9 9 DT Boston College

2008 Keith Rivers Bengals 1 9 9 LB USC

2007 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins 1 9 9 WR Ohio State

2006 Ernie Sims Lions 1 9 9 LB Florida State

2005 Carlos Rogers Redskins 1 9 9 DB Auburn

2004 Reggie Williams Jaguars 1 9 9 WR Washington

2003 Kevin Williams Vikings 1 9 9 DE Oklahoma State

2002 John Henderson Jaguars 1 9 9 DT Tennessee

2001 Koren Robinson Seahawks 1 9 9 WR North Carolina State

2000 Brian Urlacher Bears 1 9 9 LB New Mexico

1999 Chris Claiborne Lions 1 9 9 LB USC

1998 Fred Taylor Jaguars 1 9 9 RB Florida

1997 Tom Knight Cardinals 1 9 9 DB Iowa

1996 Rickey Dudley Raiders 1 9 9 TE Ohio State

1995 Kyle Brady Jets 1 9 9 TE Penn State

1994 Antonio Langham Browns 1 9 9 DB Alabama

1993 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons 1 9 9 T Washington

1992 Tommy Vardell Browns 1 9 9 RB Stanford

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Jets fans always have a higher expectation for the pick than reality. 9 is not 1. 
 
 
There's alot of premium talent in those last 20 you listed. Henderson, Williams, Urlacher, Raji, Spiller, Smith, Kuechly, Rogers, Kennedy, Taylor....That's half the list. 
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Rex worked out Coples in OLB drills last year. They're pro day drills...Zero predictive value. Hunt's workout numbers are within the realm of being able to flex into an OLB-esque role in the D on a given play in a given package. This is SOP for a workout on a guy that big and athletic that you try to force your little offseason agenda on.

Which "little offseason agenda" are you referring to? It's hard to keep track.

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I asked the same question a couple months ago. The answer lies partly with how deep these SEC teams are and how much they rotate. Mingo didn't play 90% of the defensive snaps. It was more like 60%. That goes for Sharrif Floyd too.  These guys come from very good teams that have depth and part of their game plan is to rotate all the time and keep guys fresh. LSU routinely rotated 8 guys. 

 

the other part of the answer is that he didn't have elite production but as dbates said he's not an elite pick. if Mingo had the production of Jarvis Jones, he's maybe the #1 pick. We are talking about him at 9. 

 

This.  Depth and rotation.  Muschamp constantly rotates.  Starters dont see the majority of snaps until the 4th quarter.  And when everyone around you is NFL caliber, they make plays too.

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I asked the same question a couple months ago. The answer lies partly with how deep these SEC teams are and how much they rotate. Mingo didn't play 90% of the defensive snaps. It was more like 60%. That goes for Sharrif Floyd too. These guys come from very good teams that have depth and part of their game plan is to rotate all the time and keep guys fresh. LSU routinely rotated 8 guys.

the other part of the answer is that he didn't have elite production but as dbates said he's not an elite pick. if Mingo had the production of Jarvis Jones, he's maybe the #1 pick. We are talking about him at 9.

Soooooooo, his production numbers are minimal because he didn't play a lot, but they'll be better when he's playing 60 snaps in the NFL?

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Why do like Jordan more? Just curious.

Dude had a busted shoulder and still worked out the best he could at the combine. Nothing wrong with Mingo and he doesn't lift at all. I think Jordan is the better athlete. Probably less of a great pass rusher but that could come with time. He can also get out and cover and I like players that can be more than one dimensional like Mingo seems to be.

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Mingo isnt a perfect prospect. He's about 240 which is kinda light and he hasn't benched. But the Jets aren't getting a perfect prospect at 9. all the guys the Jets are looking at 9 have flaws.

 

FWIW you can always improve  a player's strength, but he's not getting much faster than his combine time. I don't know that this is a sure thing pick for the jets but it is a real possibility. 

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Back to intelligent postings, at this point I'm hoping Dion Jordan falls to #9. If not trade back and get Eifert or a guard. I don't like Ansah, Jones, Mingo or Werner all that much.

A couple WRs that might be there at #9 are intriguing.

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It takes receivers and most QBs a year or two to figure out the NFL game. I'm hoping this team is competitive in two years, and it'd be nice to have some skill players ready to go around that time. Draft a passel of receivers, TEs, maybe a QB this year, then find your add-on rush LBs in 2014.

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IMO TE is at least as bad a value pick as S and G. A TE @ 9? No thanks.

Patterson is mocked consistently in the top ten. Tavon Austin between 10 and 15 recently, and Eifert has moved up all spring. Fans are in denial about TEs, but a lot of games are being dominated by that position.

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the value for WR will be in the 2nd/3rd round this year. No Calvin Johnson type at the top end but plenty of #2's with upside. It wouldn't be shocking to see a Steve Smith or Miles Austin type player come out of this draft.

Calvin Johnson was a Stage Five mutant.

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A couple WRs that might be there at #9 are intriguing.

True but I don't think that any of them are worth #9 at that point. You'd be happy with one in the teens but not a one of them screams top ten pick. I'm also on the side of our WRs aren't that horrible especially if they bring Braylon back.

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the value for WR will be in the 2nd/3rd round this year. No Calvin Johnson type at the top end but plenty of #2's with upside. It wouldn't be shocking to see a Steve Smith or Miles Austin type player come out of this draft.

 

I'd be shocked if one didn't.

 

Patterson is mocked consistently in the top ten. Tavon Austin between 10 and 15 recently, and Eifert has moved up all spring. Fans are in denial about TEs, but a lot of games are being dominated by that position.

 

I have nothing against drafting receivers, I just think TE is an overrated position. I totally disagree that games are being dominated by TEs.  For the most part they are garbage men that feast off other guys getting attention.  Vernon Davis goes a bit beyond that and the guys in New England, but I am speaking generally.  I look at TE as drafting an ILB vs. a pass rush OLB.  Not as premium a position.  That being said, I know very little about these TEs except their names, so I can't even argue that they are not worth it. 

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I'd be shocked if one didn't.

I have nothing against drafting receivers, I just think TE is an overrated position. I totally disagree that games are being dominated by TEs. For the most part they are garbage men that feast off other guys getting attention. Vernon Davis goes a bit beyond that and the guys in New England, but I am speaking generally. I look at TE as drafting an ILB vs. a pass rush OLB. Not as premium a position. That being said, I know very little about these TEs except their names, so I can't even argue that they are not worth it.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/01/tight_ends_have_changed_the_wa.html

Dilfer does an ok job explaining why the TE is a big deal to a passing offense. They collapse defenses back into the middle of the field.

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http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/01/tight_ends_have_changed_the_wa.html

Dilfer does an ok job explaining why the TE is a big deal to a passing offense. They collapse defenses back into the middle of the field.

 

I can't watch that at work, but it probably doesn't change my point. IMO the difference between an adequate TE and good/great one is much smaller than the difference between an adequate WR and a good/great one.  You just need a decent sized sh*thead to run up the seam or hook in the middle and catch the damn ball.

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