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Game Tape: Geno Smith


Villain The Foe

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Yep, I was hearing this on the radio a bit this morning, a surprisingly high % of his passes went behind the LOS.  He doesn't have a Tavon Austin to bail him out in this offense so he'll need to prove he can throw downfield.  I agree that Geno-Austin combo would have been spectacular.

 

Still, even as a raw talent, he's better than Sanchez.  Which says more about how bad Sanchez is.....but I'll take it.

 

He looks OK I guess, doesn't throw the ball beyond the LOS as often as you'd like to see. I find myself watching Tavon Austin more in these vids... would have been so cool to have both of them together.
 

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He looks OK I guess, doesn't throw the ball beyond the LOS as often as you'd like to see. I find myself watching Tavon Austin more in these vids... would have been so cool to have both of them together.

 

 

Yep, I was hearing this on the radio a bit this morning, a surprisingly high % of his passes went behind the LOS.  He doesn't have a Tavon Austin to bail him out in this offense so he'll need to prove he can throw downfield.  I agree that Geno-Austin combo would have been spectacular.

 

Still, even as a raw talent, he's better than Sanchez.  Which says more about how bad Sanchez is.....but I'll take it.

 

 

Go take a look at who leads the league the last few years in passes at or behind the LOS: you'll see Drew Brees, Tom Brady etc.  What you need to see is that when these guys deliver the ball they do it quickly, accurately and allows the receiver to catch it and run, something you did not see Sanchez really ever do.  It looks like Geno has this ability, but we shall see.

 

 

Edit: here's an interesting article descrbing this very topic.

 

 

Though that story sounds good, and makes you think it could be the missing link, there is one central problem with that story. It's simply not true. The reason why quarterbacks have seen their efficiency ratings skyrocket over the years, is the relying less and less on deep ball passing. A quarterback is far more likely to hit a 10 yard pass (in the air) and watch the receiver pick up 30+ more yards on his own, than connect on a 40+ yard pass in the air.

Now deep ball passing is traditionally thought of as 40-60 yard bombs, but a more standard definition is anything over 20 yards in the air. Of passes traveling 21 or more yards in the air a typical NFL team may throw a grand total of 50-75 throughout the course of the season. Typically they represent between 10-15% of all passes thrown. That is of course includes passing between 21-30 yards, which isn't the true "deep passing attack". If you look at passes thrown over 30 yards, you are talking between 3-5 percent of all balls thrown during the year.

Now defenders of the big pass will say, that it isn't wholly fair to look at it solely by number of attempts, because deep passes equal more yards and touchdowns than a bunch of short passes put together. But what they fail to mention is that deep passes also carry more risk. The completion percentage on them will plummet for some QB's into the 20% range, and interceptions can go up as well. Which is why teams no longer rely on hem as a staple of a passing offense.

Let's look at some numbers from top QB's to show how little overall impact deep passing can have, all numbers are from ESPN's split stats

Tom Brady: Brady threw for 5,232 yards completing 65.5% of his passes, of those 5,232 yards, just 522 came on passes thrown longer than 20 yards (or roughly 10%). Brady also despite having a strong arm and very good accuracy, was just 15-57 on those passes, or 26% completion rate.Of those passes Brady was just 1-15 on balls thrown 31 yards or more.

Drew BreesBrees threw for 5,477 yards, at 71.2%. Of his 647 attempts, just 61 were attempted longer than 21 yards, (9%). Brees is perhaps the high-watermark for deep ball passing, since he managed over 1,000 yards from it, but he still only completed 50.8% of his deep throws, and had a higher interception rate (nearly 5%) than on the rest of his throws combined. Brees also did most of his damage in the 21-30 yard range, where he was 21-40 for 600+ yards.

Matt Stafford: Stafford was another member of the 5,000 yards club, but like Brees attempted under 10% of his throws 21 or more yards (9.5%). Of Stafford's 63 attempts he completed just 22 passes. 14 of those 22 completions and six of his eight touchdowns went to Calvin Johnson. Stafford, despite having the best receiver in the league in Johnson, was not able to utilize deep passing as a significant part of his game. His over 31 yards numbers were 11 for 34.

Aaron RodgersRodgers like Brees is among the best deep ball throwers, but attempted just 57 passes of 21+ last season (11%). Again of those 57, just 20 were attempted longer than 31 yards. Now Rodgers is far more efficient than most 52.6% among all his deep throws, but that is still well off his 70.9% mark for balls thrown 20 yards or less.

Now these quarterbacks aren't thought of as elite, but have some of the strongest arms in the NFL:

Joe Flacco: Flacco attempted 78 passes longer than 21 yards, which was 14% of all of his attempts. Unfortunately it didn't pan out too well, as he managed to complete just 23% (18 total) of those passes. Though his completion percentage was lower across the board, 23% is pretty bad.

Michael VickVick has a cannon for an arm, and some of the best deep threats in the NFL, but his numbers weren't that impressive. He attempted 50 passes in this group (or 11.8% of all his attempts), but completed just 16 of them (32%). To make matters worse he shows how interceptions can spike as he threw 5 interceptions. That means 10% of his deep ball throws ended up in the other team's hands.

Cam Newton: Newton has an insanely strong arm and a great deep threat in Steve Smith. He attempted 80 passes longer than 21 yards, which was good for over 15% of his total attempts. Of those 80 attempts he connected just 29 times (and he was just 7 of 25 beyond 30 yards), or 36%.

Those are four of the best quarterbacks in the league, plus an additional three quarterbacks who are highly thought of with strong arms. All of them had more weapons than the Redskins have and better protection, yet none of them really significantly utilized deep passing. Especially when you look at their numbers 31 yards or more in the air. For the Redskins to have us believe that they will be utilizing the deep ball significantly, is really an empty threat. In fact some of the best QB numbers were those who utilized the deep ball the least. It's nice to think that the Redskins deep passing can be more effective this year, but the reality is Griffin and the Redskins passing attack, success or failure will be determined by what happens between behind the line of scrimmage out to 20 yards.

Update: there was some call to see Rex's numbers

Rex Grossman: Grossman attempted 47 passes 21 yards or more out of 458 total attempts (10.2%). Of those 12 were completed (or 25.5%) Grossman saw his interception numbers go up (not surprising). As you can see throwing deep was futile for the Redskins and costly.

Check out Fanspeak.com, for Steve Shoup's additional Redskins coverage. Also check out his2012 NFL Preview Guide

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Go take a look at who leads the league the last few years in passes at or behind the LOS: you'll see Drew Brees, Tom Brady etc.  What you need to see is that when these guys deliver the ball they do it quickly, accurately and allows the receiver to catch it and run, something you did not see Sanchez really ever do.  It looks like Geno has this ability, but we shall see.

 

 

Edit: here's an interesting article descrbing this very topic.

 

 

Though that story sounds good, and makes you think it could be the missing link, there is one central problem with that story. It's simply not true. The reason why quarterbacks have seen their efficiency ratings skyrocket over the years, is the relying less and less on deep ball passing. A quarterback is far more likely to hit a 10 yard pass (in the air) and watch the receiver pick up 30+ more yards on his own, than connect on a 40+ yard pass in the air.

Now deep ball passing is traditionally thought of as 40-60 yard bombs, but a more standard definition is anything over 20 yards in the air. Of passes traveling 21 or more yards in the air a typical NFL team may throw a grand total of 50-75 throughout the course of the season. Typically they represent between 10-15% of all passes thrown. That is of course includes passing between 21-30 yards, which isn't the true "deep passing attack". If you look at passes thrown over 30 yards, you are talking between 3-5 percent of all balls thrown during the year.

Now defenders of the big pass will say, that it isn't wholly fair to look at it solely by number of attempts, because deep passes equal more yards and touchdowns than a bunch of short passes put together. But what they fail to mention is that deep passes also carry more risk. The completion percentage on them will plummet for some QB's into the 20% range, and interceptions can go up as well. Which is why teams no longer rely on hem as a staple of a passing offense.

Let's look at some numbers from top QB's to show how little overall impact deep passing can have, all numbers are from ESPN's split stats

Tom Brady: Brady threw for 5,232 yards completing 65.5% of his passes, of those 5,232 yards, just 522 came on passes thrown longer than 20 yards (or roughly 10%). Brady also despite having a strong arm and very good accuracy, was just 15-57 on those passes, or 26% completion rate.Of those passes Brady was just 1-15 on balls thrown 31 yards or more.

Drew BreesBrees threw for 5,477 yards, at 71.2%. Of his 647 attempts, just 61 were attempted longer than 21 yards, (9%). Brees is perhaps the high-watermark for deep ball passing, since he managed over 1,000 yards from it, but he still only completed 50.8% of his deep throws, and had a higher interception rate (nearly 5%) than on the rest of his throws combined. Brees also did most of his damage in the 21-30 yard range, where he was 21-40 for 600+ yards.

Matt Stafford: Stafford was another member of the 5,000 yards club, but like Brees attempted under 10% of his throws 21 or more yards (9.5%). Of Stafford's 63 attempts he completed just 22 passes. 14 of those 22 completions and six of his eight touchdowns went to Calvin Johnson. Stafford, despite having the best receiver in the league in Johnson, was not able to utilize deep passing as a significant part of his game. His over 31 yards numbers were 11 for 34.

Aaron RodgersRodgers like Brees is among the best deep ball throwers, but attempted just 57 passes of 21+ last season (11%). Again of those 57, just 20 were attempted longer than 31 yards. Now Rodgers is far more efficient than most 52.6% among all his deep throws, but that is still well off his 70.9% mark for balls thrown 20 yards or less.

Now these quarterbacks aren't thought of as elite, but have some of the strongest arms in the NFL:

Joe Flacco: Flacco attempted 78 passes longer than 21 yards, which was 14% of all of his attempts. Unfortunately it didn't pan out too well, as he managed to complete just 23% (18 total) of those passes. Though his completion percentage was lower across the board, 23% is pretty bad.

Michael VickVick has a cannon for an arm, and some of the best deep threats in the NFL, but his numbers weren't that impressive. He attempted 50 passes in this group (or 11.8% of all his attempts), but completed just 16 of them (32%). To make matters worse he shows how interceptions can spike as he threw 5 interceptions. That means 10% of his deep ball throws ended up in the other team's hands.

Cam Newton: Newton has an insanely strong arm and a great deep threat in Steve Smith. He attempted 80 passes longer than 21 yards, which was good for over 15% of his total attempts. Of those 80 attempts he connected just 29 times (and he was just 7 of 25 beyond 30 yards), or 36%.

Those are four of the best quarterbacks in the league, plus an additional three quarterbacks who are highly thought of with strong arms. All of them had more weapons than the Redskins have and better protection, yet none of them really significantly utilized deep passing. Especially when you look at their numbers 31 yards or more in the air. For the Redskins to have us believe that they will be utilizing the deep ball significantly, is really an empty threat. In fact some of the best QB numbers were those who utilized the deep ball the least. It's nice to think that the Redskins deep passing can be more effective this year, but the reality is Griffin and the Redskins passing attack, success or failure will be determined by what happens between behind the line of scrimmage out to 20 yards.

Update: there was some call to see Rex's numbers

Rex Grossman: Grossman attempted 47 passes 21 yards or more out of 458 total attempts (10.2%). Of those 12 were completed (or 25.5%) Grossman saw his interception numbers go up (not surprising). As you can see throwing deep was futile for the Redskins and costly.

Check out Fanspeak.com, for Steve Shoup's additional Redskins coverage. Also check out his2012 NFL Preview Guide

 

  Brees is known as one of the most accurate NFL QBs, he throws for over 5K yards, 30 TDs, etc. And Brady is Brady.    And they have players who can make plays.   It helps having a HOF QB, but it helps having a Wes Welker or good TE's too.       And years ago it wasn't like Jerry Rice was running 80 yard routes. It was always the YAC that mattered.   Hit a guy in stride, have some blockers and let them run.   

 

 Who knows what Smith brings to the table. Austin was the guy running 80 yards sometimes.  And in college thats more about speed and an athletic WR compared to a QB.     I wasn't sold on Smith, still am not,  he was not that good the second half of last season,  but I hope he winds up being great.    And WV as a team sucked in the bowl game.   

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you can't knock him for throwing screens, that's just a part of the system they run.  they run a million and one tunnel/ bubble screens, try to tire out the d-line and then it opens up the run game which is also why Holgorsen, Leach, and those other Air Raid guys have had efficient rushing attacks.

 

what really has to impress you is his mastery of Holgorsen's offense... 3 to 4 read pass concepts, packaged plays, read routes... the kid has a high football IQ, just going to be an adjustment learning the offense... also i'm interested to see why the offense stalled second half of the year

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you can't knock him for throwing screens, that's just a part of the system they run.  they run a million and one tunnel/ bubble screens, try to tire out the d-line and then it opens up the run game which is also why Holgorsen, Leach, and those other Air Raid guys have had efficient rushing attacks.

 

what really has to impress you is his mastery of Holgorsen's offense... 3 to 4 read pass concepts, packaged plays, read routes... the kid has a high football IQ, just going to be an adjustment learning the offense... also i'm interested to see why the offense stalled second half of the year

 

 Better competition?   Their first few games were against marshall, James Madison, Maryland, Baylor, and a not very good Texas team.  Their defense sucked so it meant Geno and that offense needed to score every possession.  He won't have that issue with the jets if Rex is around.    Whether or not he can guide a playmaker-less offense is another story.   

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  Brees is known as one of the most accurate NFL QBs, he throws for over 5K yards, 30 TDs, etc. And Brady is Brady.    And they have players who can make plays.   It helps having a HOF QB, but it helps having a Wes Welker or good TE's too.       And years ago it wasn't like Jerry Rice was running 80 yard routes. It was always the YAC that mattered.   Hit a guy in stride, have some blockers and let them run.   

 

 Who knows what Smith brings to the table. Austin was the guy running 80 yards sometimes.  And in college thats more about speed and an athletic WR compared to a QB.     I wasn't sold on Smith, still am not,  he was not that good the second half of last season,  but I hope he winds up being great.    And WV as a team sucked in the bowl game.   

 

That was my entire point; the reason you see all of these completion percentages sky-rocketing is the amount of short, quick throws that are basically a pseudo-run game being added to today's offense.  You look at Brees and Brady and how they lead or are at the top of the league in passes at or behind the LOS, because they have passes that are essentially long handoffs; they aren't gunning it down the field to ratchet up 4000 yards.  The reason they're so successful is that they are incredibly accurate and can repeat their throwing motion over and over; that's something sanchez could never do.  You have one or two plays where instead of the ball leading the receiver to allow him to catch it in stride for 5 or 6 yards, you get tackled for a gain of one or two.  That destroys all momentum; Sanchez just wasn't continuously accurate, that's been his major problem all along.

 

I have my reservations on Geno, but it's not because he threw a lot of quick screens. The only thing you have to care about is that it was the offense that dictated these throws, not a lack of arm strength, which he has plenty of.

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The Kansas St. game was striaght up horrible. Not impress with his in conference games as a whole.

 

Yes it was, but throw in the LSU game; he put up 400+ and 2 tds on a defense that was pretty damned stingy that year, as they are every year.  That was the first time I saw him play and came away quite impressed, same way I did last year with Tahj Boyd.  

 

Kid's not a perfect prospect, but he has all the things I look for in a player; multiple year starter, completion percentage increased every year, no double-digit interceptions, physical tools (can he make all the throws) and work ethic.  He seems to have everything and so he's worth the risk in the second.  Will he pan out? No idea, but judging by the aforementioned, I think it's more likely he than Sanchez.

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