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NY Jets Week One Starting Quarterback: Geno Smith


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#1 JetNation

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:01 AM

With Jets training camp just a few weeks away the quarterback competition will be front and center as incumbent Mark Sanchez will battle rookie Geno Smith in hopes of remaining the team’s starter.  The Jets coaches have not tipped their hand as to whose favored heading into camp just saying they will determine a starter based upon the winner of the “open” competition. 

Well a winner has already emerged and Geno Smith will be under center week one of the regular season when the Jets take the field against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  No, the Jets have not officially announced this but given a variety of factors that will be the outcome.

The simple fact is the Jets cannot be successfully under Marty Mornhinweg’s offense with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.  While the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles from 2010-2012, during 48 regular season games, the Eagles quarterbacks threw the ball 30 or more times in 40 of those contest. 

Mornhinweg has brought his pass heavy system to the Jets and an offense generally runs between 60-70 plays per game.  The Eagles passed the ball 62% (2012), 57% (2011) and 59% (2010).  It would seem safe to say the Jets quarterback will have to attempt 30 or more passes per game more often.  Mark Sanchez is 14-20 for his career when attempting 30 or more passes (.41 winning percentage) and only 5-11 (.31 winning percentage) during his last two seasons. 

The argument in favor of Sanchez would be Mornhinweg throws lots of short quick passes and that he can thrive even with the increased attempts.  During the 2011 season when the Jets threw the ball 57% of their offensive plays, Sanchez (career high 543 attempts) only completed two passes for more than 40 yards the entire season, but ended the year with a mediocre 56.7 completion percentage.  The Brian Schottenheimer offense, much like Mornhinweg’s, was based upon short quick passes that season but Sanchez was 4-6 when asked to throw 30 or more times. 

Also Sanchez is prone to getting balls batted or intercepted at the line.  If Mornhinweg is going to run his system the quarterback will have to make quick throws near and around the line of scrimmage, not really Sanchez’s strength.  Mornhinweg likes to keep the defenses honest by taking shots downfield so who has the better arm strength and accuracy to make these types of throws?

Maybe the team wasn’t good and that is why Sanchez struggled the past two seasons but the Jets aren’t stacked with offensive weapons this year and Mornhinweg will need the quarterback to elevate others around him.  Is this Mark Sanchez, a great 20 throws per game quarterback who succeeds when asked to manage a game not win it, that guy?  The Jets have never been ranked higher then 21st in passing within the league any year which Sanchez was the starter. 

It is obvious that this competition is a farce and Smith, who right now is at worst even with Sanchez, will grow and produce better outcomes for the offense.  After watching Sanchez continue to make rookie mistakes in games and during practices there is no reason to believe the rookie hasn’t already beaten him out.

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#2 Bleedin Green

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:59 AM

Meh, I'm not so sure about this one.  In the long term I don't think anyone would argue with this theory, but for week one in it is far from a sure thing.  The simple reason why is that this team, at QB, has absolutely become all about doing what is best for Geno Smith.  If they believe that Geno isn't going to be ready for week 1 and that throwing him out there anyway has the potential to hurt him more than it helps, they'll suck it up and throw Sanchez to the wolves for a while until they think Geno is ready.  Forget Rex, guys like Idzik and Mornhinweg aren't going to be willing to see this team start repeating the mistakes made before they were around.  The Jets gave Sanchez the starting job on a silver platter in his rookie year, with absolutely no real competition or need for him to earn the job, a decision I think they have no intention of repeating with Geno.

 

At this point Sanchez is still around simply to be a potential placeholder, and that's only because the hope of Garrard being that guy didn't work out for them.  Sanchez has no long-term future with this team, but as much as I hate the idea of ever seeing him out on the field again, there's still a chance the team could feel it is in their best interests to go with him first, not because of what he brings to the table, but simply because it might be the right decision for Geno.  This so-called "competition" isn't really designed to show the team which is the better QB, it's designed to show the team whether or not Geno is ready to be a starting QB in the NFL right now.  That will be the one and only thing that will drive this team's decision-making process.


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#3 bitonti

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:10 AM

week 2 is thursday night @ NE. that could be a career ruiner for a not yet ready rookie. 


Edited by bitonti, 02 July 2013 - 11:10 AM.

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#4 slats

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:14 AM

Sanchez has no long-term future with this team, but as much as I hate the idea of ever seeing him out on the field again, there's still a chance the team could feel it is in their best interests to go with him first, not because of what he brings to the table, but simply because it might be the right decision for Geno.


Rather than thinking there's a chance of it playing out like this, I think this is the most likely scenario.

Contrary to the article's final sentence, there are a lot of reasons to sit Geno. At least for a month or two.
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#5 sourceworx

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:17 AM

Rather than thinking there's a chance of it playing out like this, I think this is the most likely scenario.

Contrary to the article's final sentence, there are a lot of reasons to sit Geno. At least for a month or two.

 

 

+1

 

Geno needs to be the clear-cut winner in camp if he's going to be the starter on Opening Day.  If the competition in camp and the preseason is close, go with Sanchez until Geno is ready.  It's better for the team long term to not rush things.


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#6 Thor99

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:09 PM

week 2 is thursday night @ NE. that could be a career ruiner for a not yet ready rookie.


Yeah, that awesome Pats D is a QB killer.
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#7 jetsjetsjetss

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:13 PM

hasnt sanchez been playing better then geno during practice?


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#8 Larz

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:16 PM

a winner has already emerged....well, thats my opinion based on chez hate......

 

I mean did you see the butt fumble !?!

 

lol !!!


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#9 CrazyCarl40

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:21 PM

Who writes these articles? Does no one copy edit them at all?

 

Also, the entire premise is wrong. Sanchez will start Week 1. Period.


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#10 BurnleyJet

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:59 PM

Snatchez till least game 5.
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#11 bitonti

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 01:25 PM

Yeah, that awesome Pats D is a QB killer.

 

the last time Geno played meaningful football he was being stymied by Syracuse's awesome D. 


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#12 jbone

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 01:52 PM

the last time Geno played meaningful football he was being stymied by Syracuse's awesome D.. 

Wasn't his best game, but he did complete 68% of his passes in that game. If he can be accurate like that in Marty's system, he could do well. 

 

We already know Sanchez's college accuracy didn't translate to the NFL, hopefully Geno will have better results in that area.


Edited by jbone, 02 July 2013 - 01:56 PM.

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#13 Gastineau Lives

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 01:57 PM

Wasn't his best game, but he did complete 68% of his passes in that game. If he can be accurate like that in Marty's system, he could do well. 

 

We already know Sanchez's college accuracy didn't translate to the NFL, hopefully Geno will have better results in that area.

If this is true, I'll take Stymie, Spanky, Buckwheat, Wheezer, all of them mofos.

 

LOL you edited your post as I was replying.


Edited by Gastineau Lives, 02 July 2013 - 01:58 PM.

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#14 bitonti

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:05 PM

Wasn't his best game, but he did complete 68% of his passes in that game. If he can be accurate like that in Marty's system, he could do well. 

 

he also took 2 safeties. How does a QB take 2 safeties in the same game? It's Sanchez-esque.


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#15 jbone

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:06 PM

If this is true, I'll take Stymie, Spanky, Buckwheat, Wheezer, all of them mofos.

 

LOL you edited your post as I was replying.

Yea, I fugged up a little bit on the first post. Had to make some changes. 


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#16 jbone

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:11 PM

he also took 2 safeties. How does a QB take 2 safeties in the same game? It's Sanchez-esque.

Geno should be commended for not handing 2 TDs over to the opposing defense. That would be Sanchez-eque.  Lol


Edited by jbone, 02 July 2013 - 02:11 PM.

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#17 flgreen

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:15 PM

Wasn't his best game, but he did complete 68% of his passes in that game. If he can be accurate like that in Marty's system, he could do well. 

 

We already know Sanchez's college accuracy didn't translate to the NFL, hopefully Geno will have better results in that area.

I'm wondering if you watched that game?

 

Even after his very mediocre second half of the season, I was still holding out some hope that Smith might be a viable option  for the Jets at 9.

 

After the game I had given up on him.  Saying it wasn't his best game is mild.   At 39 I'm OK I guess, just not real confident


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#18 pointman

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:17 PM

Throw him to the fire, and let him learn on the job. If he is going to succeed, he has to learn sooner or later.. and from the sidelines ain't where to do it from.


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#19 flgreen

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:23 PM

Throw him to the fire, and let him learn on the job. If he is going to succeed, he has to learn sooner or later.. and from the sidelines ain't where to do it from.

if he were an NFL ready QB I would agree.  He is very far from that.  If they just throw him in there he will develop all kinds of bad habits out of survival, and more then likely be out of the league in 5 years


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#20 bitonti

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:40 PM

if he were an NFL ready QB I would agree.  He is very far from that.  If they just throw him in there he will develop all kinds of bad habits out of survival, and more then likely be out of the league in 5 years

 

the reason why he dropped to 39 is cause he's not ready for prime time. . . JMO. He has talent, but he has to be brought along carefully.

 

Besides isn't handing a job to a player that he didn't earn a mistake they made with Sanchez? If Geno doesn't legitimately beat out Mark, he doesn't deserve to start. 


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#21 kelticwizard

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:45 PM

........during 48 regular season games, the Eagles quarterbacks [under Mornhinweg] threw the ball 30 or more times in 40 of those contest... 

 

...Mark Sanchez is 14-20 for his career when attempting 30 or more passes (.41 winning percentage) and only 5-11 (.31 winning percentage) during his last two seasons..... 

 

So by the author's own figures, Sanchez was 9-9 his first two years in games he threw 30 or more times.

 

Not great, not terrible.  Of course, back then he had people to throw to.


Edited by kelticwizard, 02 July 2013 - 02:47 PM.

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#22 pointman

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:57 PM

the reason why he dropped to 39 is cause he's not ready for prime time. . . JMO. He has talent, but he has to be brought along carefully.

 

Besides isn't handing a job to a player that he didn't earn a mistake they made with Sanchez? If Geno doesn't legitimately beat out Mark, he doesn't deserve to start. 

The reason he fell is cause everyone doubted his accuracy with the long ball. 


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#23 Freemanm

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 03:08 PM

 

"At this point Sanchez is still around simply to be a potential placeholder, and that's only because the hope of Garrard being "that guy didn't work out for them.  Sanchez has no long-term future with this team, but as much as I hate the idea of ever seeing him out on the field again, there's still a chance the team could feel it is in their best interests to go with him first, not because of what he brings to the table, but simply because it might be the right decision for Geno."

 

I totally agree with you, Bleedin' Green. Jets fans will suffer this year, no doubt, but at least it will be somewhat of a "rebuilding/allowing contracts to expire". Sanchez is definitely going to start by default. I never thought it was quite fair to start a rookie QB on day 1 - there's just too much to learn when you're a rookie in the NFL playing the most important offensive position on the field.

 

The only question for me is the one BG just put out there: will the Jets new upper management be willing to throw Geno on the field when Sanchez begins spewing out his suckiness, or, since it's a rebuilding year anyway (and let's face reality this year, I think if the Jets win six games this year they should consider it a successful year), give Sanchez the dignity of starting some games for one more season before going to the announcing booth on ESPN4 and give Geno a limited amount of reps so he can learn.

 

Either way, Sanchez will definitely be the starter in the season opener.


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#24 Integrity28

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 03:11 PM

Thread title should qualify that this is a prediction.


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#25 jbone

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 03:29 PM

I'm wondering if you watched that game?

 

Even after his very mediocre second half of the season, I was still holding out some hope that Smith might be a viable option  for the Jets at 9.

 

After the game I had given up on him.  Saying it wasn't his best game is mild.   At 39 I'm OK I guess, just not real confident

Yea, I watched Geno quite a bit last season and saw worse, so its all relative. 

 

If it took you that long to give up on him as a top ten pick, you must not have been watching very closely prior to that. He proved he wasn't worthy of a top ten selection way before that game.


Edited by jbone, 02 July 2013 - 03:30 PM.

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