eboozer Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I'd be thankful to anyone who can interpret what this guys charts are sayng. I like Wilson more than most on this board and hope we re-sign him. I believe he is starting to understand this position in the NFL. They'll probably put a 2nd rd. tender on him after this year. Thoughts http://www.ganggreennation.com/2013/7/29/4567230/kyle-wilsons-under-the-radar-improvement-he-is-good Kyle Wilson's Under the Radar Improvement - He is Good By ________key on Jul 29 2013, 8:09a 127 Stay connected for news and updates Tweet (1) Share 127 Comments ⋆Rec (5) Wilson and the Numbers I'm not completely sure what is up with Kyle Wilson and NY Jet fans. I think it all started with his relatively high draft choice and then being unexpectedly thrust into heavy responsibilities due to the selfishness of a cornerback everyone gets compared to now. He was exposed, suddenly and quickly, to be just what he was...a rookie - and a rookie put up against some bad matchups at that. Somehow, someway though it all became a permanent mark against him, perhaps enforced by his performance in 2011 where he was asked to simply to cover the slot while Cromartie and Revis did the heavy lifting. How hard can it be? Well, as it turns out for some players it is pretty hard and it requires a certain skill set, clearly one he did not really have yet. So when it came down to Revis exiting stage left with his injury we all thought the pass defense was doomed. A guy who really couldn't handle the slot was suddenly pushed up the ladder and the whole thing looked like it was going to crumble. The thing is...it didn't. Aided by lots of Pettine zone Wilson actually performed in the top 1/3 of the league in QB rating allowed, yards per target allowed an completion percentage allowed. He was a hidden and unexpected factor in a pass defense that became the strength of an otherwise flawed team. All the talk about Wilson brought me to take a look at his stats over time. My eyes were telling me that he just wasn't as bad as a lot of fans seemed to feel and I wanted some objective reference. This is what I found referencing the data at ProFootballFocus: Wilson's rank against league corners by year shown above - lower numbers are better Boldly marked on the graphic is the % of snaps taken in the slot, its an important fact. When examining Wilson's performance we can't escape just how much time he spent in the slot...and additionally I was surprised how little he spent there in 2010, proportionately. He became the slot defender in 2011 and simply didn't do well at a it. These are his overall coverage numbers including QB rating allowed, yards per target and completion percentage, but the placing of the marker is "rank". The numbers had to be equalized across varying data, so for instance in 2010 his rank is projected into where it would have measured in the top 75% of snaps if he had qualified. Here the lower the mark (closer to 1) the better. As much as fans were disappointed with Wilson in 2010, he actually showed skills that if projected would have made him 15th in QB rating allowed, 9th in yards per target and 6th in completion %. These numbers were actually kind of buried by all the negativity about him and his lack of fulfillment of his promise. He was a rookie and showing something, despite a few mis-plays. In 2011 he was moved over to the slot more or less full time and he really didn't do well. He was (if projected) about 30th among league leaders in snaps in these 3 essential categories. Not absolutely horrible - there are 64 starting CB slots in the league, but really not promising. But then his move to corner came last year, and he really flourished in a kind of under-the-radar way, assembling very solid defensive numbers while Cromartie took the deserved glory. Wilson and the Slot The most obvious takeaway from the graph above is that the move to heavy slot coverage was bad for Wilson. 2010 and 2012, when he played a fewer percentage of slot coverage snaps he showed better defensive production. It leaves one inclined to say that WIlson just isn't a guy who can cover the slot. Fair enough. But PFF also offers slot defense numbers on CBs so I plotted out the same categories and his rank against other slot defenders (projecting when I had to in 2010 and 2012) and was surprised by what came back in 2012: Wilson's rank against league corners in the slot by year above Surprisingly Wilson in 2012 when he found himself in the slot only 34% of the time did very well there. In fact he would have had the 4th best QB rating in the league (projected out) and the 9th best completion percentage in slot coverage. It shows how good of a season he had last year, he even turned a weakness into a strength, when not exposed to it all the time. In the graphic above you can also see that despite some good overall slot numbers in 2010 (a surprise to me) it was the yards per target that really got away from him, big plays. What this seems to be saying is that Wilson just isn't a slot defender if you are going to ask him to do it all the time, he's a cornerback - and probably a corner best in zones like what Pettine was running. He has improved his slot play, but it probably doesn't bode well to put him there for heavy snaps. The bad news is that with Pettine gone and Milliner being lined up as the number 2...AND with Rex going high risk and pressure in his Defense there doesn't seem to be a pure place for him, which may be behind some of Rex's talk about some time for Wilson at safety. How to balance Wilson's skill set with the needs of the Defense will be a very interesting thing to watch, but what cannot be denied is that he has shown himself to be more skilled that many of us thought last year. Forgive typos, written quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmartin Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I didn't think he would pan out after his rookie season, considering where he was drafted. He's coming into his own and if he continues to improve and Miliner works out, the Jets will have one of the best defensive backfields in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Look at the games and you will know why a lot of fans do not think he is that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I'm not completely sure what is up with Kyle Wilson and NY Jet fans. I'm pretty sure I know whats up with Kyle Wilson and Jet fans. Jet fans don't like seeing copious replays in a game of pass plays where their DB doesn't have a clue where the ball is and the opposing wide receiver is between the DB and the goal line. It creates score differentials unfavorable to the Jets and therefore is looked at as being bogus. Next question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lego My Lageman Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Beat by Mario Manningham, still waives finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 What does the 0-35 on the left of the graph indicate? I think WIlson is okay, but we don't like okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eboozer Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 What does the 0-35 on the left of the graph indicate? I think WIlson is okay, but we don't like okay. I couldn't figure out the x-axis either? Another guy hoping to get a gig like the "Sports Science" guy. Ain't happenin' with graphs my friend.... Most of us failed Algebra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Wilson is a solid corner. Been saying it for a while. He gets hated on around here, quite unfairly to be honest. Cro, Milliner and Wilson is a very formidable secondary. Rex should have a lot of flexibility with these guys covering the way they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yeah I love it when he gets beat and waves his hand as if he did something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJetsFan Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Look at the games and you will know why a lot of fans do not think he is that good. <wags finger> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I couldn't figure out the x-axis either? Another guy hoping to get a gig like the "Sports Science" guy. Ain't happenin' with graphs my friend.... Most of us failed Algebra thats the y axis, lol. and while that is algebra, reading simple graphs is probably learned in 2nd grade the graphs are clearly labeled as representing his ranking against other corners in the nfl. it even tells you lower numbers are better.....so let's just say that the 50% completion percentage in 2010 must have had him ranked at #6 in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eboozer Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 thats the y axis, lol. and while that is algebra, reading simple graphs is probably learned in 2nd grade the graphs are clearly labeled as representing his ranking against other corners in the nfl. it even tells you lower numbers are better.....so let's just say that the 50% completion percentage in 2010 must have had him ranked at #6 in the league. Ha!! yeah, you're right! I usually let Excel handle all those problems for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 So he was never lower than 30th in any of those categories? Despite... EEK! WE HAVE NO PASS RUSH!!!? Either the rest of the D is pretty good or he's not that bad. I find it hard to believe that there aren't 30 CBs better. That would make him a #1 someplace. Especially when you consider he was a #3 here. Maybe that explains it, he's going against #2 and 3 WRs, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 the average QB completes what, 25 passes a game ? and yet every fan feels like every completion means someone got "burned" he's a good tackler he's learning the difference between chasing and covering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 So he was never lower than 30th in any of those categories? Despite... EEK! WE HAVE NO PASS RUSH!!!? Either the rest of the D is pretty good or he's not that bad. I find it hard to believe that there aren't 30 CBs better. That would make him a #1 someplace. Especially when you consider he was a #3 here. Maybe that explains it, he's going against #2 and 3 WRs, but still... well according to this guy he did some sort of equalizations and projecting to make these graphs happen so idk what they mean exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Graphs - I go by what I see on the field- him getting beat by not looking for the ball or flagged for penalties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 well according to this guy he did some sort of equalizations and projecting to make these graphs happen so idk what they mean exactly. Technically he didn't do it. He got them from Pro Football Focus. Sounds like he is pretty fired up about Wilson playing zone rather than man. I'd be interested if he got that from stats or it's just a hypothesis. He seems to play well facing the ball. What most of us complain about is him chasing. That might be why they are talking about Wilson at S (I hadn't heard this, but the article mentions it) and why we all remember him chasing and flailing his arms during his bad plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Technically he didn't do it. He got them from Pro Football Focus. Sounds like he is pretty fired up about Wilson playing zone rather than man. I'd be interested if he got that from stats or it's just a hypothesis. He seems to play well facing the ball. What most of us complain about is him chasing. That might be why they are talking about Wilson at S (I hadn't heard this, but the article mentions it) and why we all remember him chasing and flailing his arms during his bad plays. Wilson has been playing both S and CB in camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Wilson has been playing both S and CB in camp I'd love to see him @ safety - comes in on the ball well, knows how to tackle and could do some poppin. Doesn't have KRS (Kerry Rhodes Syndrome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Technically he didn't do it. He got them from Pro Football Focus. Sounds like he is pretty fired up about Wilson playing zone rather than man. I'd be interested if he got that from stats or it's just a hypothesis. He seems to play well facing the ball. What most of us complain about is him chasing. That might be why they are talking about Wilson at S (I hadn't heard this, but the article mentions it) and why we all remember him chasing and flailing his arms during his bad plays. My biggest complaint about Wilson (aside from the maddening finger waving) would be the fact that he doesn't get his head around well. He's a physical corner, who sticks with his man well, but doesn't have great ball awareness. I agree that he might be well served playing some center field. The data seems to suggest that he was pretty damn good in the slot last year. The author's hypothesis is that Wilson is better in the slot when he's not doing the job full-time. My hypothesis might be that Wilson experienced something of a sophomore slump in 2011, and got it back together last year. Oh, and the rankings in the graphs are strictly for slot coverage, not overall CB play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 My biggest complaint about Wilson (aside from the maddening finger waving) would be the fact that he doesn't get his head around well. He's a physical corner, who sticks with his man well, but doesn't have great ball awareness. I agree that he might be well served playing some center field. The data seems to suggest that he was pretty damn good in the slot last year. The author's hypothesis is that Wilson is better in the slot when he's not doing the job full-time. My hypothesis might be that Wilson experienced something of a sophomore slump in 2011, and got it back together last year. Oh, and the rankings in the graphs are strictly for slot coverage, not overall CB play. Another thing that might have contributed to the sophmore slump is that he was playing slot or #3 CB and Revis and Cro both do a damned good job. They were both there in 2011 so Wilson probably had more targets. The fact that he seems to be close but not able to get his head around may mean that he is the type of guy they don't want to throw at, but can still get completions on when he is near the receiver. They don't indicate how often he was targeted, but he also may simply be a guy that does better when he isn't targeted as much. FWIW, there are two graphs. One for overall and one for in the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Another thing that might have contributed to the sophmore slump is that he was playing slot or #3 CB and Revis and Cro both do a damned good job. They were both there in 2011 so Wilson probably had more targets. The fact that he seems to be close but not able to get his head around may mean that he is the type of guy they don't want to throw at, but can still get completions on when he is near the receiver. They don't indicate how often he was targeted, but he also may simply be a guy that does better when he isn't targeted as much. FWIW, there are two graphs. One for overall and one for in the slot. Pretty sure they're both slot numbers, otherwise Wilson was the #6 CB in the league as a rookie... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roscoeword Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 His on field demeanor doesn't endear himself to Jet fans, including myself. Like the forementioned fingerwagging and other arrogant gestures, even after he's been beat. Like many NFL players, he is hotdoggish, and has no right to be. AT least earn it if you want to be a showoff. This is one of the things that bothered me about Steven Hill - he has hardly done anything, and he's already showboating. I'll take the humble guys any time, like Cotchery. I guess there just aren't too many around these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 His on field demeanor doesn't endear himself to Jet fans, including myself. Like the forementioned fingerwagging and other arrogant gestures, even after he's been beat. Like many NFL players, he is hotdoggish, and has no right to be. AT least earn it if you want to be a showoff. This is one of the things that bothered me about Steven Hill - he has hardly done anything, and he's already showboating. I'll take the humble guys any time, like Cotchery. I guess there just aren't too many around these days. Welcome to jetnation. Good first post. Wilson needs to just play instead of trying to show up people- especially since he mostly has nothing to show off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Pretty sure they're both slot numbers, otherwise Wilson was the #6 CB in the league as a rookie... ? They can't both be straight CB numbers because the numbers themselves are different. He was 6th in completion % against according to that. There are a bunch of things that go into that number. First, his ypc against were terrible. This indicates he cheated up and got beat deeper. The numbers also correllate to the entire defense. The 2010 D was pretty stout. I know we whine about pass rush, but Rex dialed up plenty of pressure and does and excellent job of forcing the QB to throw to a specific spot. That helps CBs. His on field demeanor doesn't endear himself to Jet fans, including myself. Like the forementioned fingerwagging and other arrogant gestures, even after he's been beat. Like many NFL players, he is hotdoggish, and has no right to be. AT least earn it if you want to be a showoff. This is one of the things that bothered me about Steven Hill - he has hardly done anything, and he's already showboating. I'll take the humble guys any time, like Cotchery. I guess there just aren't too many around these days. I like showboating. Most of the time it has to do with the player's own psyche and his battle with the other team. I've done plenty of showboating and I can tell you that you probably would have hated me, but there were times when it was effective both at getting in the other side's head and keeping me in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whodeawhodat Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Seemed like opposing QBs missed the target when throwing to the WR that he was covering. They would have him beat by a step but over threw on more than one occasion last year. On the other hand, I have heard for a couple of offseasons now that he has had a tremendous offseason including the last one where he worked with Revis for a whole month. If he keeps improving well, I am going to cut him some slack on the finger wagging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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