I disagree. There a million guys who have a strong arm and throw a nice spiral. They are not all NFL QB's. There is a certain look to an NFL QB, the way they drop back, the way they survey the field, the way they deliver the ball, the way they act, I did not see that from Geno. I could be dead wrong, and hope I am, but that is just what I observed.
I'm not ragging on your eye test. I can understand how Geno might look that way to you. In the end you may be proven right, but I think it's awfully early to make that assessment of him. I have a few questions for you and a few points that I hope you'll consider.
One, you do realize that around 90-95% of the snaps took in college were in the shotgun, don't you? Thus he never had to worry about footwork, dropping back and/or surveying the field while he was focusing on his number of steps and their being in the right order. In addition, that's made more complex because the WCO is such a timing based system. If you read that article the other day that Tom posted it talked about this very kind of thing and how tricky that can be for a lot of QBs who aren't used to it. It's one thing to practice focusing on taking the correct number of steps, looking for your receiver and throwing the ball knowing you won't get hit. It's quite another in the pressure of a real game when you know the opposing defense is looking to take your head off.
Two, do you know that the offense Geno played in at WVU is akin to sandlot football? There were four basic plays and Geno would call the play at the LOS. A lot of their passes were of the shorter variety. The WCO is a very complex system and the Jets use a number of different formations and wrinkles, with more routes. Trying to remember all that at NFL speed, while not feeling natural and comfortable trying to spot your receivers while focusing on the right footwork, are enough to make anyone look bad at first, particularly at NFL speed.
Three, NFL defenses are a lot more complex, they disguise coverages more, and the players are bigger, faster, stronger and more skilled. That in itself is an adjustment for all rookies. Factor in having to change the basic fundamentals of the position of how he gets the ball on the snap, how and when he has to throw it, and remembering where all the offensive players are supposed to be is enough to make anyone struggle.
We know that Geno is VERY accurate and rarely threw interceptions in college. I think that once he gets comfortable with his fundamentals, really knows the offense, then his confidence will be higher, he'll be more relaxed and able to let his talent take over. He's still having to think too much. This kind of struggles and play is the exact kind of thing that can erode his confidence. It's why a lot of player fail. They feel uncomfortable when trying to learn/master the new techniques or fundamentals they are taught, and rather than being patient and working harder and harder, many revert back to their old way of playing so they can feel more comfortable, yet that old way of playing won't work in the NFL.
Lee and Mornhinweg (and Idzik!) need to be patient with Geno. Baby steps. They need to have him focus on the fundamentals only until those are solidly ingrained and come naturally to him. Then they can work with him on reading Ds, looking off receivers, etc. Then once he can consistently do that in practice without any hiccups, then they can think about starting him.
That's why I've steadfastly maintained that Geno is not ready and shouldn't be forced onto the field too early. He needs time for these new techniques to become ingrained into his muscle memory so that they feel natural and ARE natural, and he doesn't have to think about them. Then he's free to focus on reading the D.
Rex Ryan, the bag lady of NFL HCs.