Is there such a thing as a "gift" win?

[stoicsentry]

It's become a common theme in the Rex era to dismiss certain wins as "gifts", in such a way that they become literal wins but figurative losses. I believe there are only two kinds of real "gift" wins, but you can add to the list if you think of some more.

 

The first would be of the type where the two teams are not given an equal chance to win. Such would be the case if the refs bet on the game and then used the whistle to influence the score in one direction or another. We aren't aware of any instances of this kind of game in the Rex era.

 

The second would be of the type where one team simply concedes due to other considerations. There would be at least one case of this in the Rex era: the 2009 game where the Indianapolis Colts benched most of their starters in the 3rd quarter in order to rest up for the playoffs.

 

However, there is another type of win that is often called a "gift", one where I believe the label is used erroneously: the big mistake/penalty "gift" win. This is when you win on a late score following a penalty (like a roughing the kicker, for example) or a big mistake (like a cornerback simply falling down in 1 on 1 coverage, leading to a wide open touchdown). This is one that's at the forefront of our minds due to the recent wins over Tampa Bay (week 1) and New England (week 7). In both cases, the opposing team committed a penalty late in the game that ultimately led to a Jets game winning field goal. I'll now give 2 reasons why I believe these types of games are legitimate wins, rather than "gifts":

 

1. The "Tebow is Magic Fallacy": This is the idea that the only thing that matters is what happened last, and everything else that led up to it is irrelevant. The notion is, of course, ridiculous. It's the same type of thinking that led certain people to believe that Tim Tebow was a great quarterback. How many 4th quarter game winning drives did Tebow lead in a row when he was with the Broncos? 4? 5? Does that mean he was a great quarterback? Well, it certainly means that he doesn't always let pressure get to him in tough spots, yeah. But, no, that doesn't make him a great quarterback. The reason why he had so many game winning drives is because his defense was outstanding and would hold the other team to just a couple scores here and there. Meanwhile, Tebow's offense was punting... constantly. Sure, he led game winning drives, but the reason he even had the chance to lead those game winning drives is because he was sucking it up for the first 3 quarters of every game. Had he been an efficient quarterback, he never would have needed to win the game in the final minutes.

 

Conversely, we often speak of the way the Jets defense surrenders scores late in the 4th quarter to lose a game. While there's certainly nothing to be happy about when it comes to losing the game in the last few minutes, the fact is that the Jets defense was only in the position to surrender those late game winners because their offense was so bad and they were so good. If they had a competent offense lo these last few years, then they wouldn't even be in position to lose the game in that way.

 

So, we can see how this applies to the big mistake/penalty "gift" win. Teams win or lose by putting more or less points on the board at the end of the game. It doesn't matter when they put those points up. Both Tampa Bay and New England committed penalties that gave them a -3 point swing. The fact that these penalties occurred at the end of the game rather than the beginning doesn't make them inherently more meaningful than if they had occurred at the beginning of the game.

 

2. The "Strength vs. Strength Fallacy": Every team has strengths and weaknesses. One team's strengths are a reflection of another team's weaknesses. Every team makes good plays, every team makes mistakes. They go together.

 

The flaw in the late game penalty/mistake idea is that teams win on strength vs. strength alone. Such that, if a team lacks discipline and commits a costly late game penalty/mistake, then that team lost the game, the other team didn't win it. When in fact, the other team did win it. They won by being the team that did not commit the late penalty/mistake.

 

For example, when the Patriots committed the personal foul against the Jets in week 7, the Jets did not come right back out and commit a personal foul of their own. They did not false start themselves back out of field goal range. They did not get called for a hold and then stuffed behind the line. They did not fumble the ball.

 

We see, remember, recall, and focus on the fact that Patriots did make a last minute mistake/penalty. What we forget, ignore and push away is the fact that the Jets did not do that. That doesn't mean that the Jets didn't win the game, it just means you didn't notice them doing so.

 

Conclusion: Perhaps anyone looking to bash the Jets for these 2 wins and see the glass as half-empty would be better advised to focus on something like point differential. That, too, is flawed. But it makes a better case than talking about "gift" wins.

[Jetsfan80]

Most NFL games come down to 2-3 plays.  It's nice to come out on top most of the time in those games this season for a change.  Rex deserves to be bashed for the team not being competitive at all in 3 of our 4 losses.  But he also deserves some credit for winning 4 close games.  He makes his mistakes but he still tends to win these games.  Like the anti-Ron Rivera.

 

4-4 is EXACTLY where we deserve to be.  We outplayed the Bucs, Bills, Falcons and Pats (the 2nd time around). 

[stoicsentry]

Most NFL games come down to 2-3 plays.  It's nice to come out on top most of the time in those games this season for a change.  Rex deserves to be bashed for the team not being competitive at all in 3 of our 4 losses.  But he also deserves some credit for winning 4 close games.  He makes his mistakes but he still tends to win these games.  Like the anti-Ron Rivera.

 

4-4 is EXACTLY where we deserve to be.  We outplayed the Bucs, Bills, Falcons and Pats (the 2nd time around). 

That's cool, man. For what it's worth, I'm not really trying to argue one way or another about how good or bad the Jets are... just tired of seeing these kinds of wins being called "gifts."

[Integrity28]

The Jets are a bad, bad football team that is willing it's way to wins. Call it what you want, but the team is over-achieving. Credit the players, Rex and his coaches for creating an environment conducive to over-achieving, because it can take you a long way. Look at this year's Red Sox (not to imply they are talent-less, but they are certainly over-achievers).

 

The reality is, this squad is filled with an insurmoutable amount of inexperienced players and off-the-street plug-ins. It's going to catch up to use on the field at times, as it did yesterday. The talent deficit on this roster is noticeable, almost always. The Jets have just done a remarkable job of hiding it at times, enough to fool us into thinking they are better than they are. Which is awesome, however, the reality is this team needs 1-2 more solid drafts and a healthy cap invested in positive contributors to be where teams like the Bengals, Seahawks, Niners, Colts are.

 

We'll get there. I feel pretty confident in that.

 

We, as fans, just have to remember that Tannenbaum left this roster in about as bad a shape possible. I saw a lot of posts last week after the win, some about how we owed Tanny for guys like Kerley and Snacks... but the reality is for every Kerley, there were about 4-5 bad signings and/or wasted draft picks. That catches up to a team after 4 years, and when it catches up it's crippling.

 

Be glad that we've made a good showing so far, root for us to win more, but keep in mind that whatever we accomplish is somehow happening with a patchwork roster, that's in stage 1 of being replenished with talent.

[BroadwayJoe12]

From all of my time watching football and sports in general over the years, I've learned one important thing; while you may seem to be on the short end of the luck stick one year and on top the next, they tend to even out after time. For instance in baseball, you can have someone that has an astronomical BABIP one year and the next it comes down to around average. Just be happy that the luck is bouncing your way when it does, because just as often it will swing the other way. 

[SoFlaJets]

Yes I-28 OR....this could very well be a team to rip off 8 straight wins and surprise the world...then again we could just as easily go 2-6 the rest of the way

[Integrity28]

From all of my time watching football and sports in general over the years, I've learned one important thing; while you may seem to be on the short end of the luck stick one year and on top the next, they tend to even out after time. For instance in baseball, you can have someone that has an astronomical BABIP one year and the next it comes down to around average. Just be happy that the luck is bouncing your way when it does, because just as often it will swing the other way. 

 

 

LOL, in all fairness, the Jets have been on the wrong side of luck for what like 40 years?

[ZachEY]

 Rex deserves to be bashed for the team not being competitive at all in 3 of our 4 losses.

 

The problem is, this has been a common theme during Rex's tenure.

[whodeawhodat]

The Jets are a bad, bad football team that is willing it's way to wins. Call it what you want, but the team is over-achieving. Credit the players, Rex and his coaches for creating an environment conducive to over-achieving, because it can take you a long way. Look at this year's Red Sox (not to imply they are talent-less, but they are certainly over-achievers).

 

The reality is, this squad is filled with an insurmoutable amount of inexperienced players and off-the-street plug-ins. It's going to catch up to use on the field at times, as it did yesterday. The talent deficit on this roster is noticeable, almost always. The Jets have just done a remarkable job of hiding it at times, enough to fool us into thinking they are better than they are. Which is awesome, however, the reality is this team needs 1-2 more solid drafts and a healthy cap invested in positive contributors to be where teams like the Bengals, Seahawks, Niners, Colts are.

 

We'll get there. I feel pretty confident in that.

 

We, as fans, just have to remember that Tannenbaum left this roster in about as bad a shape possible. I saw a lot of posts last week after the win, some about how we owed Tanny for guys like Kerley and Snacks... but the reality is for every Kerley, there were about 4-5 bad signings and/or wasted draft picks. That catches up to a team after 4 years, and when it catches up it's crippling.

 

Be glad that we've made a good showing so far, root for us to win more, but keep in mind that whatever we accomplish is somehow happening with a patchwork roster, that's in stage 1 of being replenished with talent.

 

Best post I have read in a long time, thanks monkey! 

 

Bengals are a very good team, they have many peices in place to make their run.  The Jets on the other hand have more holes than peices.  I like the effort for the most part this year but we are outmanned against the upper echelon of teams, for this year anyway.  We were simply dominated, too much talent on the other sideline.  Going forward we have the picks and the cap room to start filling those holes next year.  This year is all about effort and experience.  Like you said, effort goes a long way.

[Lil Bit Special]

its tough to feel good about a win or wins when dumb penalties gave us the chance to win.  Winning those 2 games dont gloss over the mistakes & lack of talent on this team.  These wins hide the fact that we arent close to being a good team... one thing people fail to realize is that every fan is happy (or should be happy) we have 4 wins.  Thats cool.  But never let the record of a team blind you to the reality of the team.  They arent very good.  Just because we win a game doesnt mean it cant be criticized.  Just because we lose a game doesnt mean we cant find positives (except for yesterday. bleech.)  

 

In terms of standings and playoffs, we are what our record says.  For a diehard fan, which if you post at this place you have to be, theres more to the game and the team than just what their record is.

[BroadwayJoe12]

LOL, in all fairness, the Jets have been on the wrong side of luck for what like 40 years?

 

*Statistics do not account for deals with devil or contracts involving one's soul.

[Integrity28]

Best post I have read in a long time, thanks monkey! 

 

Bengals are a very good team, they have many peices in place to make their run.  The Jets on the other hand have more holes than peices.  I like the effort for the most part this year but we are outmanned against the upper echelon of teams, for this year anyway.  We were simply dominated, too much talent on the other sideline.  Going forward we have the picks and the cap room to start filling those holes next year.  This year is all about effort and experience.  Like you said, effort goes a long way.

 

Thanks

 

*Statistics do not account for deals with devil or contracts involving one's soul.

 

LMFAO

[Smashmouth]

Most NFL games come down to 2-3 plays.  It's nice to come out on top most of the time in those games this season for a change.  Rex deserves to be bashed for the team not being competitive at all in 3 of our 4 losses.  But he also deserves some credit for winning 4 close games.  He makes his mistakes but he still tends to win these games.  Like the anti-Ron Rivera.

 

4-4 is EXACTLY where we deserve to be.  We outplayed the Bucs, Bills, Falcons and Pats (the 2nd time around). 

 

we outplayed those teams at certain stages of the game yes but not nearly for the full game in any of those 4 win examples. In 2 of those wins we only got the victory due to boneheaded mistakes by the other team not by out playing them. There has been NO game this year where the Jets have walked away with an easy victory suggesting they outplayed anyone in any phase. We even let the Bills back in a game we should have blown them out in.

[Jetsfan80]

we outplayed those teams at certain stages of the game yes but not nearly for the full game in any of those 4 win examples. In 2 of those wins we only got the victory due to boneheaded mistakes by the other team not by out playing them. There has been NO game this year where the Jets have walked away with an easy victory suggesting they outplayed anyone in any phase. We even let the Bills back in a game we should have blown them out in.

 

But is that a lack of talent or is it poor coaching?  I tend to lean towards the former.

[Smashmouth]

But is that a lack of talent or is it poor coaching?  I tend to lean towards the former.

 

I would lean toward lack of talent. I think Rex is doing a good job this year ....Only problems I have with Rex are his mouth and lack of discipline. I like the way Parcells coached up his players and the methods he used to get more out of them. That being said Parcells was good for a boneheaded decision every now and then.

[Integrity28]

But is that a lack of talent or is it poor coaching?  I tend to lean towards the former.

 

It's the former.

 

We have less than 10 players on this roster that would be unquestioned starters on other teams, the rest of them are rookies playing too early, under-developed prospects and off-the-street JAGs. They've vastly over-achieved so far.

 

We've snuck past some bad teams for wins, and really just avoided handing the win to the Patriots. This football team could have easily gone 0-fer, but the coaching staff has game-planned well, and there's a strong team dynamic, which in my opinion leads to getting lucky when you can't be good. 

 

I like this team, but this is one of the worst rosters in football. 

[nodimwithere]

Most NFL games come down to 2-3 plays.  It's nice to come out on top most of the time in those games this season for a change.  Rex deserves to be bashed for the team not being competitive at all in 3 of our 4 losses.  But he also deserves some credit for winning 4 close games.  He makes his mistakes but he still tends to win these games.  Like the anti-Ron Rivera.

 

4-4 is EXACTLY where we deserve to be.  We outplayed the Bucs, Bills, Falcons and Pats (the 2nd time around). 

4-4, but a different 4-4. Deserved to lose the Tampa Bay game, and deserved to win the Pats game in New England (it was there for the taking all game long).

[Jetsfan80]

4-4, but a different 4-4. Deserved to lose the Tampa Bay game, and deserved to win the Pats game in New England (it was there for the taking all game long).

 

I can accept that.  Just getting a little tired of the people that think we should be 2-6.   

[Jetsfan80]

It's the former.

 

We have less than 10 players on this roster that would be unquestioned starters on other teams, the rest of them are rookies playing too early, under-developed prospects and off-the-street JAGs. They've vastly over-achieved so far.

 

We've snuck past some bad teams for wins, and really just avoided handing the win to the Patriots. This football team could have easily gone 0-fer, but the coaching staff has game-planned well, and there's a strong team dynamic, which in my opinion leads to getting lucky when you can't be good. 

 

I like this team, but this is one of the worst rosters in football. 

 

Agreed.  One of the worst rosters AND the 2nd youngest team in the NFL.  Being 4-4 is kind of miraculous.  

 

We definitely need to sign at least 1-2 quality veterans on both sides of the ball this offseason to train up these youths.  When Antonio Cromartie is your "veteran leader" on D, you've got problems.