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Eye Opening Player Comparisons


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Green Day: Eye-opening comparisons

 

November, 7, 2013

NOV 7

6:00

AM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com

 

This is for all the stat geeks out there -- our bye week respite from the usual morning offering.

The NFL compiles a stat sheet that shows how teams perform when specific players are on and off the field, breaking it down by average yards per pass attempt and average yards per rushing attempt. I think this is a great way to evaluate a player's true value to the team. I've compiled a few for the New York Jets, highlighting positional battles and key storylines. For example:

 

OFFENSE

 

 

 

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes

 

 

Average pass play with him: 6.33 yards.

 

 

Average without him: 5.79.

 

The skinny: This puts to rest the theory the Jets are better on offense without Holmes.

 

 

Offensive linemen: Brian Winters versus Vladimir Ducasse

 

 

Average running play with Winters: 4.32

 

Average running play with Ducasse: 3.82

 

The skinny: Winters, a rookie, has experieced plenty of hiccups, but he still has his predecessor beat.

 

Tight ends: Kellen Winslow versus Jeff Cumberland

 

 

Average pass play with Winslow: 5.76

 

Average pass play with Cumberland: 4.94

 

The skinny: The Jets better hope that Winslow, back from his PED suspension, is off his "allergy" medication.

 

 

Running backs: Chris Ivory versus Bilal Powell

 

Average running play with Ivory: 4.01

 

Average running play with Powell: 3.98

 

The skinny: Pretty much what you expected here.

 

 

DEFENSE

 

 

Safeties: Antonio Allen versus Jaiquawn Jarrett

 

Average pass play with Allen: 6.38

 

Average pass play with Jarrett: 4.90

 

The skinny: This surprises me -- a lot.

 

 

Defensive lineman Damon Harrison

 

Average running play with Harrison: 2.72

 

Average without him: 3.21

 

The skinny: Big Snacks is a big reason why the Jets have the No. 1 run defense.

 

 

Cornerbacks Dee Milliner versus Darrin Walls

 

Average pass play with Milliner: 5.85

 

Average pass play with Walls: 6.89

 

The skinny: Now we know why Rex Ryan keeps going back to Milliner.

 

 

Linebacker Antwan Barnes

 

Average pass play with him: 5.41

 

Average without him: 6.22

 

The skinny: His season-ending knee injury has been more costly than people realize.

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Lol. Rich Cimini, statistician extraordinaire. 

 

Juices: Orange

 

 

Running plays when I drink my orange juice in the morning: 5.5

Running plays when I don't drink my orange juice in the morning: 3.9

 

The skinny: As expected, drinking my orange juice is key to the Jets' ground game.

Edited by BroadwayJoe12
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Actually I thought it was a pretty cool article

 

Barnes was a big loss.  He still had more in the tank in the pass rush then I thought

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Lol. Rich Cimini, statistician extraordinaire. 

 

Juices: Orange

 

 

Running plays when I drink my orange juice in the morning: 5.5

Running plays when I don't drink my orange juice in the morning: 3.9

 

The skinny: As expected, drinking my orange juice is key to the Jets' ground game.

Delete OJ and add beer and ya got me pegged.

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Green Day: Eye-opening comparisons

 

 

Safeties: Antonio Allen versus Jaiquawn Jarrett

 

Average pass play with Allen: 6.38

 

Average pass play with Jarrett: 4.90

 

The skinny: This surprises me -- a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

It's mildly interesting, but these stats don't happen in a vacuum.  For instance, why would he be surprised by Jarrett vs. Allen?  Allen had to cover Gronkowski while I don't think Jarrett saw the field much against the Pats or much of the game against the Saints.  Obviously the safety in the game on passing downs or versus passing teams will give up more yards.  The RB numbers are statistically almost identical.  It's an interesting premise, but it's just a starting point. 

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Delete OJ and add beer and ya got me pegged.

 

If you think I don't eat my breakfast in a certain order so the team will win you are sadly mistaken. 

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the allen stat is not that surprising if we consider that neither allen nor jarrett are free safeties or can cover in the traditional sense of the word. Allen is really good at shadowing TE, which in 2013 NFL is a full time job. But the Jets don't have a single safety who can actually cover WR or take control of a deep third of the field. That doesn't mean they won't get picks occasionally like Landry and Allen have done... but the Jets safeties are probably the worst in the NFL. 

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I get the heeby jeebies when someone tries to draw conclusions from one statistic like that, especially when there are many other factors that go into the result.

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If you think I don't eat my breakfast in a certain order so the team will win you are sadly mistaken. 

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It's only wierd it it don't work.

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It's mildly interesting, but these stats don't happen in a vacuum.  For instance, why would he be surprised by Jarrett vs. Allen?  Allen had to cover Gronkowski while I don't think Jarrett saw the field much against the Pats or much of the game against the Saints.  Obviously the safety in the game on passing downs or versus passing teams will give up more yards.  The RB numbers are statistically almost identical.  It's an interesting premise, but it's just a starting point. 

 

Exactly, as far as the bold goes.  It goes back to the basic premise that correlation is not causation.  There are a variety of other factors that could come into play that affect these numbers; anything from the situations they're used in to the opponents they've played against most.  Hell, for some of the numbers that are nearly identical (e.g., Ivory / Powell), the entire difference could potentially be accounted for by something as simple as how the ball was spotted on a couple of plays.

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Average running play with Winters: 4.32

 

Average running play with Ducasse: 3.82

 

The skinny: Winters, a rookie, has experieced plenty of hiccups, but he still has his predecessor beat.

 

This can't be right.  Bitonti told me Winters wasn't ready.

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This can't be right.  Bitonti told me Winters wasn't ready.

 

the fact that he didn't start the season kinda prove he wasn't ready. As for his currently play... better than Vlad is like better than Sanchez. 

 

Winters Struggles

As mentioned, looking at raw rushing numbers is not always indicative of offensive line play, particularly Sunday as the big totals came mostly due to New Orleans missed assignments and strong running from Ivory. Rookie left guard Brian Winters had his struggles for the third week in a row as he graded at -3.5 overall including -4.3 in the run game. He completely whiffed on DT Tom Johnson on a QB draw with 12:45 to go in the third quarter, but a nifty move from QB Geno Smith saved what could have been a 7-yard loss. Winters had his problems with DT Brodrick Bunkley as well, as he got called for a hold at the 13:41 mark of the fourth quarter and was later tossed to the ground by Bunkley with 3:01 to go in the game. In addition to the plays where he was easily discarded, Winters was stood up at the point of attack a number of times as his struggles in the running game continue.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/04/refo-saints-jets-week-9/

Edited by bitonti
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the stats dont tell the entire story but they are a good point to look at

 

very good article

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the fact that he didn't start the season kinda prove he wasn't ready. As for his currently play... better than Vlad is like better than Sanchez. 

 

Winters Struggles

As mentioned, looking at raw rushing numbers is not always indicative of offensive line play, particularly Sunday as the big totals came mostly due to New Orleans missed assignments and strong running from Ivory. Rookie left guard Brian Winters had his struggles for the third week in a row as he graded at -3.5 overall including -4.3 in the run game. He completely whiffed on DT Tom Johnson on a QB draw with 12:45 to go in the third quarter, but a nifty move from QB Geno Smith saved what could have been a 7-yard loss. Winters had his problems with DT Brodrick Bunkley as well, as he got called for a hold at the 13:41 mark of the fourth quarter and was later tossed to the ground by Bunkley with 3:01 to go in the game. In addition to the plays where he was easily discarded, Winters was stood up at the point of attack a number of times as his struggles in the running game continue.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/04/refo-saints-jets-week-9/

 

 

While I agree with your overall assessment of Winters, haven't you been one of PFF's biggest critics regarding their oline grading system? Seems a bit hypocritical using it to make your point. Still agree with you though, he needs to take some big steps if we want to have continued success in the run-game. Still wish we drafted Larry Warford, was my favorite guard prospect in the draft. 

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While I agree with your overall assessment of Winters, haven't you been one of PFF's biggest critics regarding their oline grading system? Seems a bit hypocritical using it to make your point. Still agree with you though, he needs to take some big steps if we want to have continued success in the run-game. Still wish we drafted Larry Warford, was my favorite guard prospect in the draft. 

 

Its true I have been critical of the grading system of PFF. Because they don't know the assignment, they can't really be sure who did or didn't do their job.  but these statements like Winters got a holding penalty or Bunkley threw him on the ground, that's beyond grades. Anyone can see those things if they look for them. The problem with Winters isn't his PFF grades it's his play. ANd  i do think he will be better but it will take at least one or more seasons. Specifically his functional strength is not where it needs to be. He didn't bench at indy and it's unclear how strong he is. But he knows where to go and doesn't get a whole lot of false start or other dumb penalties. HE gets holding penalties cause he doesn't have the strength yet. If you took Winters' brain and put it in Vlad's body that would be an ideal lineman. 

Edited by bitonti
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Offensive linemen: Brian Winters versus Vladimir Ducasse

 

Average running play with Winters: 4.32

 

Average running play with Ducasse: 3.82

 

The skinny: Winters, a rookie, has experieced plenty of hiccups, but he still has his predecessor beat.

 

 

Running backs: Chris Ivory versus Bilal Powell

 

Average running play with Ivory: 4.01

 

Average running play with Powell: 3.98

 

The skinny: Pretty much what you expected here.

 

Aren't these two linked? Powell did better with a worse offensive line, as Ivory didn't start playing until Winters took over.

 

Also, average pass play with Walls and Milliner, I would love to see if that is just balls directed at them or not. PFF has Walls rated much higher this season than Dee.

 

I'd take all of these numbers with a grain of salt, a lemon, and tequila.

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Its true I have been critical of the grading system of PFF. Because they don't know the assignment, they can't really be sure who did or didn't do their job.  but these statements like Winters got a holding penalty or Bunkley threw him on the ground, that's beyond grades. Anyone can see those things if they look for them. The problem with Winters isn't his PFF grades it's his play. ANd  i do think he will be better but it will take at least one or more seasons. Specifically his functional strength is not where it needs to be. He didn't bench at indy and it's unclear how strong he is. But he knows where to go and doesn't get a whole lot of false start or other dumb penalties. HE gets holding penalties cause he doesn't have the strength yet. If you took Winters' brain and put it in Vlad's body that would be an ideal lineman. 

 

Well, if we're gonna go down that road, let's put Chad's brain in Vinny T's body.

 

Agreed on Winters, he seems to know where he needs to be and what he needs to do, but the only time I really see him getting any push is when they have him pull, which is seemingly something he's been successful at. He definitely needs to get his initial punch better.  

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Definitive conclusions to those stats is gucking retarded. People are actively getting dumber.

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Aren't these two linked? Powell did better with a worse offensive line, as Ivory didn't start playing until Winters took over.

 

Also, average pass play with Walls and Milliner, I would love to see if that is just balls directed at them or not. PFF has Walls rated much higher this season than Dee.

 

I'd take all of these numbers with a grain of salt, a lemon, and tequila.

 

 

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I hope Incognitos next job is as Cimini's editor

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I go by the eye test- I do not want Vlad on the field

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