Comp Picks= 3- 6th rd. & 1- 5th rd. Article

[eboozer]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html

Am hoping we will get a 4th for Landry and a 5th for DeVito


Jimmy Kempski, Philly.com
Posted: Friday, February 7, 2014, 2:22 PM

Over the last 2 years, my friend Craig Turner has done compensatory pick projections very accurately for my former football blog. Last year, he correctly matched 24 teams with the correct round for which they received a pick. He projected an additional 5 teams to receive a pick, but missed by just one round. The 3 remaining picks he missed on were due to some gray area, which he learns from every year.

Since the NFL does not make the compensatory pick formula public, learning how to accurately project them for the entire league takes time and practice. Projecting comp picks is fairly complicated, and we'll go deeper into the methodology of projecting them later in the post. For a very basic (and slightly inaccurate) explaination of what compensatory picks are, you can check out the Wikipedia page on them here.

Compensatory picks are typically announced at the NFL owners' meetings, which occur this year from March 23-26.

First, for those of you who don't care at all about the methodology, let's just show the projections. From this point on, all the work shown was provided by Craig:

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round – team – player lost)

3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace

3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings

4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson

4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger

4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus

4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe

5 – Houston – Connor Barwin

5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry

5 – Baltimore – Carey Williams

5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes

5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis

5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett

5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed

5 – Houston – Glover Quin

6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito

6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden

6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller

6 – New England – Patrick Chung

6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson

6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson

6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene

7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher

7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins

7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims

7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl

7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner

7 – Dallas – Victor Butler

7 – Cincinnati – Brad Gradkowski

7 – Tampa Bay – Geno Hayes

7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek

7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens

7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips

7 – Dallas – Kenyon Coleman

7 – Houston – Donnie Jones

7 – Atlanta – Luke McCown

7 – Pittsburgh – Ryan Mundy

7 – Buffalo – net value

7 – Oakland – net value

Methodology (Warning: Extreme nerdliness lies below)

I will once again give credit to AdamJT13 for his blog, adamjt13.blogspot.com, which provides the most comprehensive guide to comp pick rules available. Without his work, these predictions would not be possible. If you are unfamiliar with the basic rules that affect comp picks, they are:

1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.

2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.

3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.

4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.

5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

It should be noted that although the NFL admits publicly the basic rules above, NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumptions based upon past history, just as I have done.

This is the first year I can report that I was able to find all contract values. Yay internet! This incorporates two new items that we learned last year; that the rights to comp picks accompany the trade of a qualifying player, and that the system under the new CBA will continue to qualify players at lower salaries than it had previously done. This year I will hopefully learn another new piece to the puzzle. If a team loses four guys with 7th round value, but signs three guys with 7th round value, for which player is the comp pick awarded? This situation happened in a few cases this year, and with no reference point to work from, I assumed that the comp pick would be awarded for the lowest lost player’s salary. An error in this assumption would have the greatest potential effect on Pittsburgh, which could jump ten places in the 7th round if the highest-salaried lost player is used.

The order of picks in each round is based upon contract amount and playing time (number of snaps). AdamJT13 came up with a playing time equation, but he did not make it public, so I am just guessing here based upon recent history. I claim no accuracy on draft order within each round.

I awarded 36 normal comp picks this year. This is the most picks awarded in a long time, reflecting a lot of player movement, which may be a result of teams unable to sign their own free agents due to salary cap restrictions.

Isaac Sopoaga, who was signed from San Francisco by Philadelphia, and then traded to New England, affected the San Francisco and New England calculations. This was based upon how Drew Stanton (signed by the Jets from the Lions, and then traded to the Colts) was treated last year by the NFL.

Last year Phillip Wheeler was a qualifying player on his $715,000 salary after playing more than 1,000 snaps. This year I counted all players in the $700k-$800k range that played a significant number of snaps. The players I am least certain on are Mike Pollak, who was signed for $780,000 and played 68 snaps, and Luke McCown, who was signed for $840,000 and played 16 snaps. I used Washington's signing of Keyaron Fox in 2011 as the relevant history in this instance to count McCown. Atlanta also has two players with “voidable” contracts so their predictions could turn into a complete mess; more detail is provided later.

Four teams were given the maximum number of four comp picks: Atlanta, Jets, Baltimore, and St. Louis. None of them would have had a fifth pick if it was allowed. Third round picks are fairly rare, therefore the cut-off point for them is not easily decipherable. There is a possibility Green Bay’s comp pick for losing Greg Jennings will be a 4th rounder.

I awarded 2 net value picks at the end (value difference between players lost and signed when the number of players in both categories is equal). Buffalo lost Andy Levitre to a large contract from Tennessee. Oakland lost and signed a large number of players, but the only large contract went to Desmond Bryant, who was signed away by Cleveland. Usually after the net value picks there are a few picks left. The NFL awards a minimum of 32 comp picks each year. Following the net value picks, the NFL will award picks to teams as if there were an 8th round, until the minimum of 32 has been reached. That did not happen this year because 38 picks were awarded through the normal methods.

Various team explainations

New York Jets

Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k)

Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m)
 

[HessStation]

Atl only gets a 5 for Grimes? Wtf

[eboozer]

Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k)

Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m)

Wasn't Barnes cut? I don't think he counts as a FA signing.

[Greenseed4]

Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k)

Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m)

Wasn't Barnes cut? I don't think he counts as a FA signing.

Barnes is still on roster.

[Gastineau Lives]

Barnes is still on roster.

 

I think he means the Chargers cut him.

[eboozer]

I think he means the Chargers cut him.

Yep. You complete me.

[Gastineau Lives]

Yep. You complete me.

 

LOL Sometimes you need a little help, my friend.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Damn, Chicago got quite the bargain with Slauson. Seems almost poetic when you think how terrible our LG play was this past year.

[eboozer]

LOL Sometimes you need a little help, my friend.

"I get high with a little help from my friends"

"I get by with a little help from my friends"

[jetfan718]

A 5th & three 6th round picks...hopefully we'll be able to use these to either trade up or draft some late round gems! Hope the scouting dept. is doing their due dilligence 

[eboozer]

A 5th & three 6th round picks...hopefully we'll be able to use these to either trade up or draft some late round gems! Hope the scouting dept. is doing their due dilligence 

Can't trade the comp picks, but, they allow you to trade other picks you have in those rds. knowing you still receive a pick at the end of that rd.

[JetsFanInDenver]

Last time we had three 6th round comp picks they amounted to nothing. Lets hope its different this time around.

[pedro55]

   You do hope they find some talent with these picks, but it is a crap shoot when you start to get into the 6th and 7th rounds.  Yeah every draft pick is a crap shoot, but there are some players earlier in the draft who might wind up busts for various reasons, whereas a guy in the 6th round just gets cut in preseason and nobody cares.    

 

It's great if they find a few guys who can play and contribute, but I'm not counting on the Jets finding a bunch of starters with their 6th and 7th round picks.  

[ozzieny]

A 5th & three 6th round picks...hopefully we'll be able to use these to either trade up or draft some late round gems! Hope the scouting dept. is doing their due dilligence 

Nobody gives a rat's azz about 6 round picks - yea yea Brady was a 6th round pick but its very very rare you get a player in the 6th round that sticks and really contributes. 

Not excited about ALL these 6 round picks and nobody is going to grab them from us either.  

[Sperm Edwards]

A little less than I was hoping for.  For that money I thought Landry would have fetched a 4th.  $6M is a lot for a safety.  Also north of $4M isn't chump change for a TE.  But then he didn't play so he wouldn't have hit any milestones that may get factored into deciding on a 5th or a 6th.  But in addition to the high dollars, Landry had over 100 tackles in 12 games (more than a respectable # if it was spread over a full 16).  Maybe it's because he missed 4 games.  I don't know.

 

Greene and DeVito we discussed some time ago and I think we came to the same guess (6th rounders for each of them). 

[Sperm Edwards]

Nobody gives a rat's azz about 6 round picks - yea yea Brady was a 6th round pick but its very very rare you get a player in the 6th round that sticks and really contributes. 

Not excited about ALL these 6 round picks and nobody is going to grab them from us either.  

 

No one doubts that it's way easier to get a good player with a high pick, but there have been a lot of good (or better) players taken in the 6th.  It's not just Tom Brady, though he's the best one I can think of.  Weren't Antonio Brown & Alfred Morris both 6th rounders? Also Pierre Garcon, some good kickers if we don't feel like paying Folk $3M+/yr, some solid linemen. 

 

But it's more than that.  It allows us the flexibility to package our original 5th-7th round picks to move up, or to trade for a round-higher pick in 2015, and not worry about coming away from the draft with only 4-5 selections this April. 

[hmhertz]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html

[New York Mick]

Post the damn article

[Greenseed4]

This thread has already been started, same article and everything

[Greenseed4]

Colt Lylera, 6th round. Lock it up.

[BurnleyJet]

Colt Lylera, 6th round. Lock it up.

I'd buy that for a Dollar.

[slats]

Nobody gives a rat's azz about 6 round picks - yea yea Brady was a 6th round pick but its very very rare you get a player in the 6th round that sticks and really contributes.

Not excited about ALL these 6 round picks and nobody is going to grab them from us either.

Guys like Pierre Garçon, David Tyree, Yeremiah Bell, and Lex Hilliard were all 6th round comp picks. Not world beaters, but there are players available there. With three of those picks to work with, they can get creative. Every year, undrafted free agents break onto NFL rosters, and those comp picks are an opportunity to grab the guys you like but think you'll have a difficult time signing. They can draft the Vontaze Burfict types, injured players, a kicker, etc. I get not being excited, but they're hardly useless.

[jorge o8]

Colt Lylera, 6th round. Lock it up.

yes sir love that pick he will be the steal of this draft kid can catch

[jorge o8]

Last time we had three 6th round comp picks they amounted to nothing. Lets hope its different this time around.

Allen he is not bad

[eboozer]

yes sir love that pick he will be the steal of this draft kid can catch

16 other teams are probably thinking the same thing. If you think the kids a STUD! then you've got to take a flier on him before anyone else will. You might have to use one on those 4th rd. comp picks if you think he's going to be a good player. The off-field problems can only drop him so far, then the risk reward becomes too attractive for teams to pass over him.

 

Especially when teams see how good of a player and teammate Burfict turned out to be. Sign the Beast.

[sirlancemehlot]

No one doubts that it's way easier to get a good player with a high pick, but there have been a lot of good (or better) players taken in the 6th.  It's not just Tom Brady, though he's the best one I can think of.  Weren't Antonio Brown & Alfred Morris both 6th rounders? Also Pierre Garcon, some good kickers if we don't feel like paying Folk $3M+/yr, some solid linemen. 

 

But it's more than that.  It allows us the flexibility to package our original 5th-7th round picks to move up, or to trade for a round-higher pick in 2015, and not worry about coming away from the draft with only 4-5 selections this April. 

exactly.  It also allows you to grab a guy or two that might have slid into the sixth with higher round grade, or pick up  a guy like Vontaze Burfict whom you might otherwise avoid for fear of "issues".  The moer picks the better, regardless of the round.  The sniper approach is best for FA, the shotgun approach works best in the draft.

[eboozer]

 The sniper approach is best for FA, the shotgun approach works best in the draft.

Hey, I like that. Quote of the day.

[jorge o8]

16 other teams are probably thinking the same thing. If you think the kids a STUD! then you've got to take a flier on him before anyone else will. You might have to use one on those 4th rd. comp picks if you think he's going to be a good player. The off-field problems can only drop him so far, then the risk reward becomes too attractive for teams to pass over him.

 

Especially when teams see how good of a player and teammate Burfict turned out to be. Sign the Beast.

yeah im good with a 4th, his pay wont be much so if he does become a problem cuting him wont be

[j4jets]

Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k)

Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m)

Wasn't Barnes cut? I don't think he counts as a FA signing.

Doesn't matter. We can't get more than 4 picks anyways. But you're right. Barnes was cut from what I remember.

[eboozer]

Doesn't matter. We can't get more than 4 picks anyways. But you're right. Barnes was cut from what I remember.

I'm still hoping this guy has underestimated Landry and DeVito by a round. A 4th, 5th, and two 6th's sounds a LOT better.

[jetfan718]

No one doubts that it's way easier to get a good player with a high pick, but there have been a lot of good (or better) players taken in the 6th.  It's not just Tom Brady, though he's the best one I can think of.  Weren't Antonio Brown & Alfred Morris both 6th rounders? Also Pierre Garcon, some good kickers if we don't feel like paying Folk $3M+/yr, some solid linemen. 

 

But it's more than that.  It allows us the flexibility to package our original 5th-7th round picks to move up, or to trade for a round-higher pick in 2015, and not worry about coming away from the draft with only 4-5 selections this April. 

[Bleedin Green]

No one doubts that it's way easier to get a good player with a high pick, but there have been a lot of good (or better) players taken in the 6th.  It's not just Tom Brady, though he's the best one I can think of.  Weren't Antonio Brown & Alfred Morris both 6th rounders? Also Pierre Garcon, some good kickers if we don't feel like paying Folk $3M+/yr, some solid linemen. 

 

But it's more than that.  It allows us the flexibility to package our original 5th-7th round picks to move up, or to trade for a round-higher pick in 2015, and not worry about coming away from the draft with only 4-5 selections this April. 

 

Not to mention, it's not even a matter of just having top level starters, part of it is simply a matter of getting some solid depth on your team via those picks, not to mention filling out the special teams unit in the process (be it specialists, returners, or coverage).  It's no surprise the Jets' depth got progressively worse the more Tanny was trading away all of the Jets mid-to-late round picks hand over fist.  Even with the few late picks they had during those years, they still managed to come away with a few quality contributors.  They got a guy like Slauson, who may not have been anything spectacular, but gave the team 3 years as a starter as a 6th rounder.  Allen has looked like quite a good value for a late 7th rounder, starting 9 games this year. Bohanon was a starter his entire rookie year as a 7th rounder.

 

It's not about getting the next Tom Brady with those late round picks (although it would be nice), there's so much more to it than that.