Idzik's plan is good…Now its all about execution…

[gangreenman]

Very interesting offseason thus far. Obviously need to see what happens on the weekend of May 5th before we can start to come to any real conclusions, but the approach Idzik is using (although not going to win over desperate fans/media right away), is one meant to sustain a longer period of success than we have seen from the Tannenbaum era.  

 

THE PLAN

NEVER OVERPAY

While "money ball" isn't the same in football as in baseball, I like that Idzik seems to have an estimated value of what each player is worth before he heads into any negotiations.  Instead of spending more money for players than he believes they are worth just because we have some extra right now, he has let guys walk or sign elsewhere, always looking to get good value.  

 

DRAFT FOR DEPTH

To supplement this strategy with Free Agents, Idzik has stockpiled draft picks. Whether or not Idzik succeeds on building a championship caliber roster with the Jets, the draft, and how the picks develop over a few year span, is absolutely critical.   Idzik is going to use the 12 picks this year primarily to continue building depth on the roster.  If we can draft a lot of good "project" depth players in rounds 4-7, it makes it a lot easier for him to never overpay a free agent or a player on an expiring deal.   

 

LET THE PLAYERS DEVELOP

As mentioned in his draft strategy, the other part of his plan, which has been absent for years, seems to be that he wants to let the guys currently on the roster develop and earn bigger roles on the team.  Instead of overpaying for a big name safety or OL, he seems content on letting guys like Brian Winters and Antonio Allen get more reps with the starters and more attention from the coaches to see if they can grow into a starting role.

 

THE EXECUTION

FRANCHISE QB

It is near impossible to build a championship caliber roster using this plan if you do not have fixtures at some key positions.  Right now, QB, arguably the most key position, is a big question mark. For Idzik to succeed, Geno either needs to develop into a franchise QB, or Idzik needs to do some searching for someone that will.

 

GETTING VALUE IN FA

Never overpaying is a great concept, but the guys he does bring in need to be able to produce.  David Nelson was a shining example last season. Mike Goodson? Not so much.  Whether or not guys like Giacomini, Decker, and Vick can be productive will certainly have a large impact on our season.  

 

HAVING BACKUPS IN HOUSE

If we can hit on our late round draft picks, and our coaches do a good job developing these picks,  Idzik should never have to overpay a non-essential player when his contract expires.   Look how the Steelers were able to let Alan Faneca walk without missing a step.  This will save money to pay guys like Wilkerson, Richardson, Mangold, and DBrick when its time to renegotiate their contracts.    

 

[Larz]

did you copy and paste that ?

 

I remember reading here he over paid for patterson, breno and decker and ford

 

lol

[T0mShane]

Agreed

[gangreenman]

did you copy and paste that ?

 

I remember reading here he over paid for patterson, breno and decker and ford

 

lol

No. Wrote it all by myself. 

[Larz]

No. Wrote it all by myself. 

 

kudos

 

loved the steeler reference.  that's the model idzik is going after imho. 

[gangreenman]

kudos

 

loved the steeler reference.  that's the model idzik is going after imho. 

I agree. There were a ton of Pats examples I was thinking of as well, but decided not to mention any, because F them. 

[slats]

Idzik's plan is that of someone who's very confident in their ability to draft. The only way this plan works is if he's at least better than average in that department. So far, we don't know if that's the case. His two first rounders last year look like players. If Geno seizes the starting QB job, that would obviously be huge. The rest of his first draft was really nothing to write home about, though.

There's been a ton of talk about his 12 draft picks, but it needs to be noted that 8 of them come in rounds 4-6. He needs to crush it on the third day of the selection process. He's got his own personnel department in place this year, and the pressure's on. They need to produce.

[Larz]

Idzik's plan is that of someone who's very confident in their ability to draft. The only way this plan works is if he's at least better than average in that department. So far, we don't know if that's the case. His two first rounders last year look like players. If Geno seizes the starting QB job, that would obviously be huge. The rest of his first draft was really nothing to write home about, though.

There's been a ton of talk about his 12 draft picks, but it needs to be noted that 8 of them come in rounds 4-6. He needs to crush it on the third day of the selection process. He's got his own personnel department in place this year, and the pressure's on. They need to produce.

 

 

it takes 3 years to judge a draft class, and he is looking at building the jets with 3 draft classes probably, so realistically we won't know anything until 2017

 

I'm not saying his plan is to not win for years, just that we should resist the temptation to judge rookies or his drafting ability on 1 draft

 

we won't, but we should, lol

[jack48]

Very interesting offseason thus far. Obviously need to see what happens on the weekend of May 5th before we can start to come to any real conclusions, but the approach Idzik is using (although not going to win over desperate fans/media right away), is one meant to sustain a longer period of success than we have seen from the Tannenbaum era.  

 

THE PLAN

NEVER OVERPAY

While "money ball" isn't the same in football as in baseball, I like that Idzik seems to have an estimated value of what each player is worth before he heads into any negotiations.  Instead of spending more money for players than he believes they are worth just because we have some extra right now, he has let guys walk or sign elsewhere, always looking to get good value.  

 

DRAFT FOR DEPTH

To supplement this strategy with Free Agents, Idzik has stockpiled draft picks. Whether or not Idzik succeeds on building a championship caliber roster with the Jets, the draft, and how the picks develop over a few year span, is absolutely critical.   Idzik is going to use the 12 picks this year primarily to continue building depth on the roster.  If we can draft a lot of good "project" depth players in rounds 4-7, it makes it a lot easier for him to never overpay a free agent or a player on an expiring deal.   

 

LET THE PLAYERS DEVELOP

As mentioned in his draft strategy, the other part of his plan, which has been absent for years, seems to be that he wants to let the guys currently on the roster develop and earn bigger roles on the team.  Instead of overpaying for a big name safety or OL, he seems content on letting guys like Brian Winters and Antonio Allen get more reps with the starters and more attention from the coaches to see if they can grow into a starting role.

 

THE EXECUTION

FRANCHISE QB

It is near impossible to build a championship caliber roster using this plan if you do not have fixtures at some key positions.  Right now, QB, arguably the most key position, is a big question mark. For Idzik to succeed, Geno either needs to develop into a franchise QB, or Idzik needs to do some searching for someone that will.

 

GETTING VALUE IN FA

Never overpaying is a great concept, but the guys he does bring in need to be able to produce.  David Nelson was a shining example last season. Mike Goodson? Not so much.  Whether or not guys like Giacomini, Decker, and Vick can be productive will certainly have a large impact on our season.  

 

HAVING BACKUPS IN HOUSE

If we can hit on our late round draft picks, and our coaches do a good job developing these picks,  Idzik should never have to overpay a non-essential player when his contract expires.   Look how the Steelers were able to let Alan Faneca walk without missing a step.  This will save money to pay guys like Wilkerson, Richardson, Mangold, and DBrick when its time to renegotiate their contracts.

Idzik is betting on his ability to draft and I like that. Tanny obviously did not have faith in his drafting ability, willing to trade valuable draft picks for what he thought were known(but probably beyond their usefulness) quantities. I believe he thinks Campbell and Aboushi can be developed. He could have cut them and brought in a few cheap vets this year but he did not. They got a starter at DL, CB, QB, FB, and so on. Goodson crashed, but the small sample we saw on the field showed some interesting ability. Personal BS wiped him. And I did not think he had a history of one when he was signed. Ivory was a good get. No, May is super important. I think it will be a strong depth draft. Hopefully we get a starter at WR, TE and S, and maybe even CB. Probably too much to hope for a starting LB who can harry the passer. But you never know. It is a tall order, but for those people who say Idzik will not take risks they are way off. What is riskier than the draft?

[77DRAFT]

did you copy and paste that ?

 

I remember reading here he over paid for patterson, breno and decker and ford

 

lol

Good post, Decker got market value for his production over 3 years, the other guys got

short money so they are not anywhere near overpaid, and c johnson will a bargain if we

get him,

[gangreenman]

Idzik's plan is that of someone who's very confident in their ability to draft. The only way this plan works is if he's at least better than average in that department. So far, we don't know if that's the case. His two first rounders last year look like players. If Geno seizes the starting QB job, that would obviously be huge. The rest of his first draft was really nothing to write home about, though.

There's been a ton of talk about his 12 draft picks, but it needs to be noted that 8 of them come in rounds 4-6. He needs to crush it on the third day of the selection process. He's got his own personnel department in place this year, and the pressure's on. They need to produce.

Exactly.  How those late round and UDFA projects develop over the next year or two will be a key in the overall success of Idzik's plan.   If they can become viable role players and spot-starters by the end of their contracts, that gives Idzik a lot of flexibility when it comes to FA and resigning guys… 

[j4jets]

To say Goodson didn't produce n fault Idzik for it is dumb. Goodson was on IR. U can't blame the player,GM or the HC for a player suffering season ending injury.

[gangreenman]

To say Goodson didn't produce n fault Idzik for it is dumb. Goodson was on IR. U can't blame the player,GM or the HC for a player suffering season ending injury.

He was arrested, suspended, and then hurt.  The "red flags" on him last offseason were durability and off-the-field conduct.   Not saying he can't be a good player, but no matter how its twisted, Mike Goodson was at best not productive last season, and at worst counter-productive. 

[j4jets]

He was arrested, suspended, and then hurt.  The "red flags" on him last offseason were durability and off-the-field conduct.   Not saying he can't be a good player, but no matter how its twisted, Mike Goodson was at best not productive last season, and at worst counter-productive. 

 

It was a good signing in the sense we were getting a solid (shared) starter at RB. We were not locked in to the player for term and were paying very minimal for the kind of production he can provide. The injuries and off the field issue was a huge reason why he wasn't commanding twice as much in the open market. Idzik took a chance and lost about $2mil in cap last yr for keeping him. If he can turn in a 16+ game season this year with 1k yards of total offense, we'll get our money's worth since he'll be a part of a 3 man committee. I believe he can be that player. But at no point does idzik take the blame for the signing. If anything, we can blame him for the Gerrard signing.

[gangreenman]

It was a good signing in the sense we were getting a solid (shared) starter at RB. We were not locked in to the player for term and were paying very minimal for the kind of production he can provide. The injuries and off the field issue was a huge reason why he wasn't commanding twice as much in the open market. Idzik took a chance and lost about $2mil in cap last yr for keeping him. If he can turn in a 16+ game season this year with 1k yards of total offense, we'll get our money's worth since he'll be a part of a 3 man committee. I believe he can be that player. But at no point does idzik take the blame for the signing. If anything, we can blame him for the Gerrard signing.

True.  Wasn't necessarily blaming Idzik for signing him. More pointing out that the guys he brings in need to produce 

[Sperm Edwards]

It was a good signing in the sense we were getting a solid (shared) starter at RB. We were not locked in to the player for term and were paying very minimal for the kind of production he can provide. The injuries and off the field issue was a huge reason why he wasn't commanding twice as much in the open market. Idzik took a chance and lost about $2mil in cap last yr for keeping him. If he can turn in a 16+ game season this year with 1k yards of total offense, we'll get our money's worth since he'll be a part of a 3 man committee. I believe he can be that player. But at no point does idzik take the blame for the signing. If anything, we can blame him for the Gerrard signing.

 

 

True.  Wasn't necessarily blaming Idzik for signing him. More pointing out that the guys he brings in need to produce 

 

It's more difficult to hit on lower-priced guys.  Hitting on expensive ones is easy.  It's part of the reason they're expensive.

 

Goodson was just an avalanche of couldn't-predict.  Arrested (and the circumstances in which it happened) and is in serious trouble because of a gun that wasn't his and that wasn't in his hand.  In another state this might have been swept under the rug.  He has a buddy with an illegal gun and the buddy was showing it off to him.  Yeah, it's stupid, but it's not like he held up a liquor store or shot anyone or shot at anyone.  Had a little weed on him and puked all over himself when the cops tapped on his window (and he was a passenger, not driving).  Tearing both his ACL and MCL is just bad luck.  If it was a nagging injury like a hammy or some other thing that always seems to just pop up in injury-prone players who get the "Ugh, again with this pussy?" moniker, then that would be one thing.  Tearing 2 knee ligaments can't be predicted, and can happen to anyone, even a dreamy combo of health+production+wow factor like Adrian Peterson.

 

Garrard, Idzik clearly relied upon too much, and it was made that much worse by the guy quitting in freaking May.  In hindsight the result wasn't really that bad, though it wasn't planned that way.  Only thing we may have lost out on is if Garrard didn't quit then I suppose technically we could have been willing to part with (and could have gotten something for) Sanchez.  Big maybe.  But the way it played out, the only thing that might have been worse, had Garrard quit just before the draft, is that Idzik may have flinched and taken Geno at #13. 

Signing Garrard, while it obviously didn't work out with him as a QB, at least provided another name on the roster heading into the draft.  Having 2 QBs signed allowed us to let the draft come to us instead of desperately reaching for a QB.  For all we know Garrard netted us Richardson, from this POV.  Can't say for sure, but it's possible.

 

Then after he was gone, Sanchez getting hurt made it even better for the team from a looking-forward perspective.  They got to see a full season of Smith, and let him take his lumps in a season where we weren't winning a SB no matter who else we had at QB (from those available).  Who else could we have had? Hasselbeck? Yeah, he's better, but then this season Geno would be seeing his first action (or even worse, that would wait until '16).  Who else? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Matt Cassell? Matt Moore? Drew Stanton? Jason Campbell? All of them good enough to win the job over Smith, but no one worthy of relying on for the future.  Probably better off seeing what Smith did on the field for a whole season than plodding through 12-16 games of one of these stop-gaps.

 

Therefore, as bad, unlucky, and frankly embarrassing as Garrard's initial early retirement seemed, I think it was lucky in the end.  They either like Smith, in which case he got his lumps in when it didn't really hurt us, or they know they want to move on from him.  If we went with Hasselbeck or had Sanchez started the season, they may have learned nothing.  We'll find out what they really think of him in the draft. As it stands, they already signed Michael Vick for competition. We may yet see them draft another QB in the first 3-4 rounds.  And that may not have happened if Geno never saw the field (or if he only saw it for the last 2-3 games or something).

 

 

Other than these 2, we did get some solid production from veteran guys who didn't cost an arm and a leg. Pace was cut initially.  Bringing him back on the dirt-cheap, and getting 10 sacks out of him as a FA, was a good move.  Willie Colon stayed healthy & started more games than we anticipated (until the very, very end).  Barnes, who knows what he'd have finished with had he not gone down early.  Landry stinks IMO, but at his dollars they will have no issues moving on from him; in the meantime he's at least a legit starter as a placeholder, even if a low-level one.  Ivory was damn solid once he got his sea legs. Tendered Howard, which also worked out.

 

Who didn't work out (among veterans we signed) and we have nothing to show for it? Really just Goodson and Peterman (who we cut and cost nothing).  Garrard, I feel we did get something for (albeit inadvertently) in the form of Smith getting on-field experience, since I believe he would have beaten out both Smith and Sanchez.

 

Lost in this are also higher $ players who we didn't sign, re-sign, or otherwise retain.  Like Revis (in which case likely no Richardson, as he was no more of a need than Milliner), DeVito, Keller, Greene, Scott, Tebow, Pouha, and the better Landry (who wanted $6M/year, got hurt and couldn't cover again, and for whom we're getting a 4th round pick in a few weeks).

 

Likewise, I doubt people will come back here to say, "I was so wrong.  Thank goodness we didn't sign ____ and pay him an arm and a leg in March just to do something.  Gee whizd, in addition to a crappy 2014 we would have been stuck with this stiff for big bucks for another year or two and wouldn't have drafted ____."

 

FA/Trade mistakes (last year)? Probably both veteran guards.  Slauson was signed for lower than I thought he'd go for last year (1 yr $800K or something like that) for a guy who started for a few years straight without missing a game and also has value as an emergency center if needed.  And Moore might not have retired if we re-signed him. But he wasn't going to be getting better from '14 onward, and wanted to be guaranteed a starter's job no matter what or something like that.  Colon was a downgrade, but he was cheap and didn't require a long-term investment like Moore probably would have.  Don't remember what his demands were at the time, if they were leaked out at all.  Also in hindsight I suppose he could have locked up Howard back then, but Breno doesn't cost that much more than Howard would have (at best $2-3M/year, if we could have gotten him to sign that, which would have saved $1-2M/year for the next 4).  But he was no guarantee to produce, any more than the guy he replaced.

 

Placing what I'd like his POV to be upon him, what I think Idzik is doing is just signing only players who are stop-gaps he wants to move on from, or veterans he's sure will be here for the long haul if he has to open up the piggy bank.  But he really wants to fill as many starter positions through the draft, and that's not likely to happen if we sign a high-priced veteran at a position where there's likely to be value in the draft.  But it all hinges on him drafting well, and unfortunately for the impatient, it takes some time to adequately evaluate that.  He appears to have had some hits and misses after 1 draft, but how can you really call anyone a miss after just a rookie season? At best you can say a player was sucky as a rookie.  So are lots of guys.  But it would have been nice if one of the guards panned out right away.  Wasn't going to happen with Campbell, and at the end Winters looked like he might not be a lost cause, but the best one can definitively say is "we'll see" if being honest.

 

For the draft next month, and for the players we passed up on in March? We'll see.

Crap, I did it again.  Cliff Notes coming soon.  OK probably not.  

[SouthernJet]

 

Crap, I did it again.  Cliff Notes coming soon.  OK probably not.  

[#27TheDominator]

There are problems with this plan.  They are not "developing" 12 draft picks.  It's easy to add guys of value when the cupboard is bare, but is harder to know who to hold onto when you have some quality players. Safety is a perfect example.  The Jets have 3 young players with some promise - Allen, Jarrett and Bush.  Bush seems to be the one that physically fits what they need, but he has not produced at all.  How long until you dump him? Campbell and Aboushi looked lost.  It will be great if they step up this offseason, but if they don't are you willing to cut them already?  When you have decent players teams shop at your place for the mini-draft.  That is a good thing, but an additional problem with having all these picks and a few outstanding projects already.