Steve Muench - Three bold draft moves to propel the Jets

[LAD_Brooklyn]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nfl-draft/post?id=4413

Three bold draft moves to propel the Jets

Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC Championship Game his first two seasons as their head coach, winning two playoff games each of those years. One of those playoff wins was a 28-21 victory over the Patriots in Foxborough in 2010. It seemed unlikely at the time, but the Jets would not build on that success, but instead go on to finish 8-8 in 2011 and 6-10 in 2012.

There was speculation that they would let Ryan go and make it a clean sweep when they fired general manager Mike Tannenbaum following that disappointing 2012 season. Instead, they retained Ryan, but the speculation picked up again during last year's 8-8 season.

Following a 23-3 loss to the Dolphins in December of last year, ESPN New York Jets reporter Rich Cimini felt Ryan needed to win two of the last four games to keep his job, and Cimini didn't seem optimistic about it happening coming off that performance.

The Jets won three of the last four games, and Ryan ended up signing a multiyear extension, but his salary is only guaranteed through the 2015 season, so making a coaching change wouldn't be cost prohibitive.

So, can the Jets be a team that seemingly comes out of nowhere to make a deep playoff run and validate the decision to keep Ryan?

Second-year general manager John Idzik has been active in free agency, adding quarterback Michael Vick, wide receiver Eric Decker, wide receiver Jacoby Ford, offensive tackle Breno Giacomini, corner Dimitri Patterson and most recently running back Chris Johnson.

The Jets also hit it big in when they got defensive rookie of the year in defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson out of Missouri at No. 13 last year.

However, the jury is still very much out on three of the Jets' four picks from last year's draft as ninth overall pick corner Dee Milliner, second-round pick quarterback Geno Smith and third-round pick offensive guard Brian Winters all had their struggles.

Vick provides insurance when it comes to Smith, but Milliner and Winters need to elevate their game, and the Jets need help from this year's draft to get where they want to go.

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper both have the Jets taking Oregon State wide receiver Brandin Cooks* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 91) in the first round and Washington tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 83) in the second round in their latest mock drafts. (You can check out McShay's mock here. Kiper's mock is here.)

Jets fans should be happy with those picks but it's not the only way to go about it.

Here's my blueprint for the Jets to get back into contention with their top three picks this year and it's more of a defensive approach. As always, draft-eligible non-seniors have been denoted with an asterisk.

Round 1: Pick 18 -– Ohio State corner Bradley Roby* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 89)

As Cimini points out in another post the Jets "cut Antonio Cromartie, made unsuccessful bids for free agents Vontae Davis and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and showed no interest in reacquiring Darrelle Revis" after Tampa Bay released him.

Patterson improves depth but he is a 30-year old journeyman coming off a season-ending groin injury and ideally he's a No. 3.

Jets' fans may be wary about them taking another corner in the first considering Milliner's disappointing rookie season and 2010 first-round pick Kyle Wilson hasn't come close to living up to expectations.

Robey is inconsistent and a bit of a reach too, which doesn't ease those concerns. That said he's a quick-twitch athlete with good speed and outstanding man-to-man cover skills, which makes him a perfect fit for Ryan's scheme. He also has the potential to develop into a playmaker.

In a perfect world, the Jets trade back and pick up Robey -- or hope Darqueze Dennard (Scouts Inc. Grade: 91) out of Michigan State falls to them. Dennard is steadier and also a good fit but the Jets should take Robey if they get stuck at No. 18 and the top two corners on our board have already been picked.

Round 2: Pick 49 -– Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward (Scouts Inc. Grade: 83)

Safeties Antonio Allen and 31-year old Dawan Landry are better against the run than they are in coverage. Re-signing free agent Ed Reed isn't the answer, either. He turns 36 in September, and age had caught up to the future Hall of Famer before last year.

McShay has Baltimore taking Ward a pick ahead of the Jets, and Kiper has the Rams taking him at pick No. 44, so he's in that range and could slip to them. Moving up a couple picks to get him may be worth it too.

Ward is a playmaker with the cover skills to match up with slot receivers and the speed to play a centerfielder-type role making him a good fit for the Jets. While he doesn't have great size at 5-foot-10] and 193 pounds, he's above-average in run support.

If Washington State's Deone Bucannon (Scouts Inc. Grade: 85) is there, he too would be an excellent pick up.

Round 3: Pick 80 –- Alabama receiver Kevin Norwood (Scouts Inc. Grade: 68)

[+] EnlargeNorwood

AP Photo/Dave MartinAlabama wide receiver Kevin Norwood could help the Jets offense stretch the field.

A second-round pick in 2012, Stephen Hill has missed a total of nine games over his first two seasons, and his speed hasn't shown up enough when he's been on the field. Plus, the Jets cut Santonio Holmes, so this remains a pressing need despite the addition of Decker and Ford.

One of the reasons I have the Jets waiting to take a receiver is the depth of the WR class. I think there will be good value at receiver when they pick in the third. Rutgers' Brandon Coleman (Scouts Inc. Grade: 72) is a massive target with enough speed to stretch the field and Wyoming's Robert Herron (Scouts Inc. Grade: 70) is an explosive slot receiver who can turn a catch underneath into a long gain.

Both could be on the board and grade out higher than Norwood, but Norwood's stock has been rising, and again, he's a good fit. At 6-foot-2 and 198, he can separate underneath, he isn't afraid to do the dirty work over the middle and he has outstanding ball skills. He doesn't play quite as fast as his timed speed, but he ran a 4.48 40 at the combine, so he's fast enough to make some plays downfield too.

I

[LAD_Brooklyn]

Round 1: Pick 18 -– Ohio State corner Bradley Roby* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 89)

Round 2: Pick 49 -– Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward (Scouts Inc. Grade: 83)

Round 3: Pick 80 –- Alabama receiver Kevin Norwood (Scouts Inc. Grade: 68)

[CrazyCarl40]

Seems terrible. I don't have a problem going DB in round one. I have a problem with following that pick with another DB, especially a reach in the first. They need to go WR or TE in the first two rounds. Can't go back to back DBs.

[JetsFanInDenver]

Bradley Roby was burnt for 200 yards plus by Wisconsin WR Jared Abbrederis. Not sure if he is first round material from what i have seen. Dennard would be a whole lot better pick if available.

 

WR Jared Abbrederis was my favorite WR in this draft for a 4th round pick until i found out there were some concussion related concerns.

[bitonti]

latest bullsh*t is Roby or Fuller go higher than Gilbert or Dennard. And it honestly wouldn't be that surprising. They are late 1's at worst and this tends to happen with corners where their values are impossible to pin down (look at Milliner last year for example). 

 

The draft is often a situation where teams do dumb things and players who shouldn't fall do in fact fall. 

[Villain The Foe]

lol. I can only laugh at this. 

[T0mShane]

Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC Championship Game his first two seasons as their head coach, winning two playoff games each of those years. One of those playoff wins was a 28-21 victory over the Patriots in Foxborough in 2010. It seemed unlikely at the time, but the Jets would not build on that success, but instead go on to finish 8-8 in 2011 and 6-10 in 2012.

I

It's like a salad made out of words.

[HessStation]

I was thinking Norwood would be a great mid-late round value but in the 3rd round?

[SenorGato]

I was thinking Norwood would be a great mid-late round value but in the 3rd round?

 

This is the only thought I had about the article.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

latest bullsh*t is Roby or Fuller go higher than Gilbert or Dennard. And it honestly wouldn't be that surprising. They are late 1's at worst and this tends to happen with corners where their values are impossible to pin down (look at Milliner last year for example).

The draft is often a situation where teams do dumb things and players who shouldn't fall do in fact fall.

How was Milliner's value impossible to pin down last year? He was the top defensive back on everybody's board from the end of the season right up to the draft. That puts him in a pretty clear range.

[Midget Love 20]

1st - WR Beckham

2nd - SS Ward

3rd (trade up) - TE Niklas

 

 

Then address CBs and OG with the later picks.  

[Il Mostro]

The only thing he says that makes sense is Deon Bucannon being a good pickup.  I'd love this banger in the 3rd round.  

[HessStation]

How was Milliner's value impossible to pin down last year? He was the top defensive back on everybody's board from the end of the season right up to the draft. That puts him in a pretty clear range.

Yeah I was thinking Stephon Gilmore was a better play for an example.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

I'd love this banger in the 3rd round.

Good luck with that. If you want Bucannon we can maybe get him at 49.

[Better2bgreenthanblue]

Either QB, CB, WR run in first 15. I really hope it's a QB run leaving us in great position for a WR. In any case I can't see how we don't come out of this with a very nice WR or CB at 18. What if a top Oliner drops ???

[Larz]

1st - WR Beckham

2nd - SS Ward

3rd (trade up) - TE Niklas

 

 

Then address CBs and OG with the later picks.  

 

 

where do I sin up for this ?

 

yes please, this this this

[LionelRichie]

latest bullsh*t is Roby or Fuller go higher than Gilbert or Dennard. And it honestly wouldn't be that surprising. They are late 1's at worst and this tends to happen with corners where their values are impossible to pin down (look at Milliner last year for example). 

 

The draft is often a situation where teams do dumb things and players who shouldn't fall do in fact fall. 

 

it all comes down to how good any of these guys are in the NFL.    If Roby turns into Revis and Gilbert turns into Kyle Wilson nobody will even remember these pre-draft debates.  

 

Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks - at least one of them will be a pro bowler and one will be a bust.   Nobody knows which is which.  

[Matt39]

How was Milliner's value impossible to pin down last year? He was the top defensive back on everybody's board from the end of the season right up to the draft. That puts him in a pretty clear range.

 

I guess you could say he slightly dropped. But yeah.

[jack48]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nfl-draft/post?id=4413

Three bold draft moves to propel the Jets

Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC Championship Game his first two seasons as their head coach, winning two playoff games each of those years. One of those playoff wins was a 28-21 victory over the Patriots in Foxborough in 2010. It seemed unlikely at the time, but the Jets would not build on that success, but instead go on to finish 8-8 in 2011 and 6-10 in 2012.

There was speculation that they would let Ryan go and make it a clean sweep when they fired general manager Mike Tannenbaum following that disappointing 2012 season. Instead, they retained Ryan, but the speculation picked up again during last year's 8-8 season.

Following a 23-3 loss to the Dolphins in December of last year, ESPN New York Jets reporter Rich Cimini felt Ryan needed to win two of the last four games to keep his job, and Cimini didn't seem optimistic about it happening coming off that performance.

The Jets won three of the last four games, and Ryan ended up signing a multiyear extension, but his salary is only guaranteed through the 2015 season, so making a coaching change wouldn't be cost prohibitive.

So, can the Jets be a team that seemingly comes out of nowhere to make a deep playoff run and validate the decision to keep Ryan?

Second-year general manager John Idzik has been active in free agency, adding quarterback Michael Vick, wide receiver Eric Decker, wide receiver Jacoby Ford, offensive tackle Breno Giacomini, corner Dimitri Patterson and most recently running back Chris Johnson.

The Jets also hit it big in when they got defensive rookie of the year in defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson out of Missouri at No. 13 last year.

However, the jury is still very much out on three of the Jets' four picks from last year's draft as ninth overall pick corner Dee Milliner, second-round pick quarterback Geno Smith and third-round pick offensive guard Brian Winters all had their struggles.

Vick provides insurance when it comes to Smith, but Milliner and Winters need to elevate their game, and the Jets need help from this year's draft to get where they want to go.

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper both have the Jets taking Oregon State wide receiver Brandin Cooks* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 91) in the first round and Washington tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 83) in the second round in their latest mock drafts. (You can check out McShay's mock here. Kiper's mock is here.)

Jets fans should be happy with those picks but it's not the only way to go about it.

Here's my blueprint for the Jets to get back into contention with their top three picks this year and it's more of a defensive approach. As always, draft-eligible non-seniors have been denoted with an asterisk.

Round 1: Pick 18 -– Ohio State corner Bradley Roby* (Scouts Inc. Grade: 89)

As Cimini points out in another post the Jets "cut Antonio Cromartie, made unsuccessful bids for free agents Vontae Davis and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and showed no interest in reacquiring Darrelle Revis" after Tampa Bay released him.

Patterson improves depth but he is a 30-year old journeyman coming off a season-ending groin injury and ideally he's a No. 3.

Jets' fans may be wary about them taking another corner in the first considering Milliner's disappointing rookie season and 2010 first-round pick Kyle Wilson hasn't come close to living up to expectations.

Robey is inconsistent and a bit of a reach too, which doesn't ease those concerns. That said he's a quick-twitch athlete with good speed and outstanding man-to-man cover skills, which makes him a perfect fit for Ryan's scheme. He also has the potential to develop into a playmaker.

In a perfect world, the Jets trade back and pick up Robey -- or hope Darqueze Dennard (Scouts Inc. Grade: 91) out of Michigan State falls to them. Dennard is steadier and also a good fit but the Jets should take Robey if they get stuck at No. 18 and the top two corners on our board have already been picked.

Round 2: Pick 49 -– Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward (Scouts Inc. Grade: 83)

Safeties Antonio Allen and 31-year old Dawan Landry are better against the run than they are in coverage. Re-signing free agent Ed Reed isn't the answer, either. He turns 36 in September, and age had caught up to the future Hall of Famer before last year.

McShay has Baltimore taking Ward a pick ahead of the Jets, and Kiper has the Rams taking him at pick No. 44, so he's in that range and could slip to them. Moving up a couple picks to get him may be worth it too.

Ward is a playmaker with the cover skills to match up with slot receivers and the speed to play a centerfielder-type role making him a good fit for the Jets. While he doesn't have great size at 5-foot-10] and 193 pounds, he's above-average in run support.

If Washington State's Deone Bucannon (Scouts Inc. Grade: 85) is there, he too would be an excellent pick up.

Round 3: Pick 80 –- Alabama receiver Kevin Norwood (Scouts Inc. Grade: 68)

[+] EnlargeNorwood

AP Photo/Dave MartinAlabama wide receiver Kevin Norwood could help the Jets offense stretch the field.

A second-round pick in 2012, Stephen Hill has missed a total of nine games over his first two seasons, and his speed hasn't shown up enough when he's been on the field. Plus, the Jets cut Santonio Holmes, so this remains a pressing need despite the addition of Decker and Ford.

One of the reasons I have the Jets waiting to take a receiver is the depth of the WR class. I think there will be good value at receiver when they pick in the third. Rutgers' Brandon Coleman (Scouts Inc. Grade: 72) is a massive target with enough speed to stretch the field and Wyoming's Robert Herron (Scouts Inc. Grade: 70) is an explosive slot receiver who can turn a catch underneath into a long gain.

Both could be on the board and grade out higher than Norwood, but Norwood's stock has been rising, and again, he's a good fit. At 6-foot-2 and 198, he can separate underneath, he isn't afraid to do the dirty work over the middle and he has outstanding ball skills. He doesn't play quite as fast as his timed speed, but he ran a 4.48 40 at the combine, so he's fast enough to make some plays downfield too.

I

I am no draft guy, but what a pile of steaming crap.

[SouthernJet]

I'd be happy w/Mel and Mikes latest mocks

[LIJetsFan]

I am no draft guy, but what a pile of steaming crap.

This

[Obrien2Toon]

1st - WR Beckham

2nd - SS Ward

3rd (trade up) - TE Niklas

 

 

Then address CBs and OG with the later picks.

This would be perfect, except Lee or Cooks instead of Beckham.

Will Niklas be there in 3rd, might have to trade up to 2nd.

[Sperm Edwards]

I am no draft guy, but what a pile of steaming crap.

 

Yeah, of all the things that Idzik has demonstrated, he's demonstrated that he wants to get what he & his scouts feel is the best value.  Whether that's best value for a pick or best value dollar for dollar, that's the idea.  So then the prediction is that he's suddenly going to start drafting for positions even though at least 2 of the top 3 picks are reaches where we're drafting a guy expected to go lower? 

 

What a silly prediction.

 

If the team was hell-bent on filling a position rather than getting value, they'd have over-bid for a sure thing at one or more of those positions in free agency.

 

This is the problem with draft predictions from novices to experts.  While GMs often do, particularly when pick value+positional need are both there, the simpleton's assumption is that with every pick is that 100% of the time 100% of GMs will draft for immediate need or immediate upgrade.  The assumption is all the more flawed when considering how many rookies are lousy as rookies, or that they're any more than 2nd string as rookies.

[JustInFudge]

This a pure needs mock and not a BAP mock which we all assume is his philosophy. And if you look at what Idzik's been doing, he's been setting the Jets up to have flexibility in the draft. The only glaring need is CB.

Norwood in the 3rd is terrible.

[jack48]

This would be perfect, except Lee or Cooks instead of Beckham.

Will Niklas be there in 3rd, might have to trade up to 2nd.

Wasn't Beckham the 2nd banana wideout at LSU? I hate these fast risers in the draft. You have a couple of year's work right there in front of you and you are suddenly going to assume that because he can jump higher than you thought you should move him up a half-round or a round. I don't get it. All that smart suddenly going stupid. It is a long season and things tend to return to their expected levels. Especially when a kid is moving into such a rarefied atmosphere as the NFL. I suppose GMs are just trying to prove that they are oh so smart. Oh, I'll take Lee, too.

[#27TheDominator]

Quick-twitch athlete. 

[SouthernJet]

Yeah, of all the things that Idzik has demonstrated, he's demonstrated that he wants to get what he & his scouts feel is the best value.  Whether that's best value for a pick or best value dollar for dollar, that's the idea.  So then the prediction is that he's suddenly going to start drafting for positions even though at least 2 of the top 3 picks are reaches where we're drafting a guy expected to go lower? 

 

What a silly prediction.

 

If the team was hell-bent on filling a position rather than getting value, they'd have over-bid for a sure thing at one or more of those positions in free agency.

 

This is the problem with draft predictions from novices to experts.  While GMs often do, particularly when pick value+positional need are both there, the simpleton's assumption is that with every pick is that 100% of the time 100% of GMs will draft for immediate need or immediate upgrade.  The assumption is all the more flawed when considering how many rookies are lousy as rookies, or that they're any more than 2nd string as rookies.

I dont think Idzik sees 12 draft picks coming in. I think we pull some draft day trades involving moving up or trading 2014 picks for picks in out years where we wont have as many picks. But as always, I'm probably wrong

[Sperm Edwards]

I dont think Idzik sees 12 draft picks coming in. I think we pull some draft day trades involving moving up or trading 2014 picks for picks in out years where we wont have as many picks. But as always, I'm probably wrong

 

I just commented on this in the other thread, but the last thing I see happening is Idzik drafting a guy at #18 that was expected to go 10+ picks later, or draft a guy in the middle of round 3 who is supposed to go a full round later (maybe more), just because they seem to fill an immediate need if they both are immediate, productive starters as rookies.

 

If he was going to behave that desperately, he'd have just used some of our (very available) cap space on those positions.  Or that's my guess, anyway.

 

In our case this season, we're still a sure-thing QB away.  So pigeon-holing ourselves by drafting for specific need just for the 2014 season is moronic.  Even top teams draft busts.  

 

Get the best player you can, not the best CB or WR you can.

[Gastineau Lives]

I just commented on this in the other thread, but the last thing I see happening is Idzik drafting a guy at #18 that was expected to go 10+ picks later, or draft a guy in the middle of round 3 who is supposed to go a full round later (maybe more), just because they seem to fill an immediate need if they both are immediate, productive starters as rookies.

 

If he was going to behave that desperately, he'd have just used some of our (very available) cap space on those positions.  Or that's my guess, anyway.

 

In our case this season, we're still a sure-thing QB away.  So pigeon-holing ourselves by drafting for specific need just for the 2014 season is moronic.  Even top teams draft busts.  

 

Get the best player you can, not the best CB or WR you can.

 

Well that's the whole thing, who do you imagine could be there at 18 that would be appreciably better than say a Dennard or a Cooks?

[Gastineau Lives]

If you look at last year's draft, Idzik went with CB at 9, which was an obvious need after Revis was traded, so we can assume that he valued him more than Richardson, who he took four picks later.

 

The Jets also wanted Tavon Austin and he would have been the pick at 9 had the Rams not leap-frogged them. Another need.

 

The draft, conceivably (in a perfect world where 10,11,12 don't take Milliner) would have been Austin at 9 and then Milliner at 13 (if he had still been there).

 

Is that truly BPA? Or just a lucky coincidence that the BPA's match the need?

[T0mShane]

If you look at last year's draft, Idzik went with CB at 9, which was an obvious need after Revis was traded, so we can assume that he valued him more than Richardson, who he took four picks later.

The Jets also wanted Tavon Austin and he would have been the pick at 9 had the Rams not leap-frogged them. Another need.

The draft, conceivably (in a perfect world where 10,11,12 don't take Milliner) would have been Austin at 9 and then Milliner at 13 (if he had still been there).

Is that truly BPA? Or just a lucky coincidence that the BPA's match the need?

Receiver and TE were bigger needs last year than they are this year even. Idzik passed on both to fill positions that we were at least ok at. The only position I'd see him pass on BPA this year is DL, and even that pick wouldn't surprise me.

[Gastineau Lives]

Receiver and TE were bigger needs last year than they are this year even. Idzik passed on both to fill positions that we were at least ok at. The only position I'd see him pass on BPA this year is DL, and even that pick wouldn't surprise me.

 

So you don't believe the reports about Austin being the pick at 9.

[#27TheDominator]

latest bullsh*t is Roby or Fuller go higher than Gilbert or Dennard. And it honestly wouldn't be that surprising. They are late 1's at worst and this tends to happen with corners where their values are impossible to pin down (look at Milliner last year for example). 

 

The draft is often a situation where teams do dumb things and players who shouldn't fall do in fact fall. 

 

I never saw Milliner anywhere but top DB last year.  I've seen people flipflopping much more on Dennard.  How come Verrett doesn't get any play? Just cause he is a shrimp?  Idzik was with the team that brought the bigger corners into vogue, but Rex likes guys that can man up and Verrett seems as likely to fill that bill as anybody.

 

I was thinking Norwood would be a great mid-late round value but in the 3rd round?

 

Yeah.  I hardly ever see him up there. Strange to see a guy from a big program so weak in the bench, especially when they complain about his short arms.  You can always lift more, but I guess you can't stretch your arms.  

[Obrien2Toon]

Wasn't Beckham the 2nd banana wideout at LSU? I hate these fast risers in the draft. You have a couple of year's work right there in front of you and you are suddenly going to assume that because he can jump higher than you thought you should move him up a half-round or a round. I don't get it. All that smart suddenly going stupid. It is a long season and things tend to return to their expected levels. Especially when a kid is moving into such a rarefied atmosphere as the NFL. I suppose GMs are just trying to prove that they are oh so smart. Oh, I'll take Lee, too.

Exactly, Landry was better in college and will be better in the nfl.

And the the kick/punt returner thing kills me. If a gm takes one player over another because of his ability in the return game, he should be fired on the spot. Wasn't Revis and Wilson supposed to be great returners too.

Draft the best players in the early rounds, get your returners in the 7th or Free agency

[T0mShane]

So you don't believe the reports about Austin being the pick at 9.

Oh, I do, but I think the fact that he didn't just look down his list of WRs after Austin was picked and take the next guy is pretty revealing as to his philosophy. It seems he's married to BPA.