Thoughts on Calvin Pryor

[T0mShane]

In six years, Rex Ryan couldn't develop a safety.

A safety.

[T0mShane]

New to this site, been listening to the podcast the last few weeks. Don't know who you are pal but you have quite a reputation. I enjoy the podcast but it would be nice if you guys don't interrupt each other, its like listening to 3 Francesca's except you guys are not rude. I was going to jump off a bridge if the Jets drafted a WR in the first rd, thankfully the Giants did. Worst investment you can make in the 1st rd. They rarely make pro bowl, first season are busts and we need immediate help, 3 down starters. Well we got one alright so don't hurt yourself to much while I raise my glass to the Jets leader, my man, Johnny boy. No go get us some damm weapons boys and also, OL depth, OLB, CB's and a FREAKING PUNTER

Thanks for listening. We're definitely still working on our timing. That article was a lot of words saying that it's hard to develop and integrate WR talent, which is true at a lot of positions.

[sourceworx]

And the case for that was made when there was a run on safeties after the Jets' pick. They got the player who they thought was the best at the position in the entire draft, and in the second round they will still have a choice between quality WR and TE prospects - without trading up.

Unless they go CB, which would be worth it for the hilarity around here, alone.

If they go CB today, it will warm my heart. Knowing Rex is firmly entrenched as our coach (and T0m is suicidal because of it) will make me VERY happy.

[Bugg]

In six years, Rex Ryan couldn't develop a safety.

A safety.

A head-hunting run-stopping safety. Because the Jets coulnd't stop the run at all last year,...uh.....no. It's the one thing they are pretty good at in fact.

 

And 15 yard helmet to hemet penalites are great.

[Bugg]

If they go CB today, it will warm my heart. Knowing Rex is firmly entrenched as our coach (and T0m is suicidal because of it) will make me VERY happy.

Scoring TDs-overrated.

[Steveg]

With Sammy Watkins in the division, the secondary had to be addressed.  Not to mention a hard hitting Safety is important with the types of TE's out there, ie, Gronkowski.

[dundunit]

By history if u mean Ed Reed for a decade, the ok.

He didn't draft Ed Reed, he was the dline coach for the ravens then. I'm sure he wasn't banging on the table for a safety then. And while he was at the ravens I can't remember him bringing in another major safety to play alongside Reed. Then when he came to the Jets he had spare parts playing safety like Leonhard, Eric Smith...even Laron Landry was considered a spare part because of his injury history. He also got rid of Kerry Rhodes a very athletic safety. So yea his history says he doesn't value safeties

[Sperm Edwards]

This is crazy- I don't understand the hate for the pick.  Pryor is a good player and we've needed a Safety for about 18 years now.  So many people preach Best player available-- then when it happens they cry because we didn't draft a WR.  Please.  Our WR situation is already twice as good as it was last year and we still have 11 picks left.  I've got news for you-- our next pick might not be a WR either.  We are taking advantage of the depth at WR.  Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Moncrief, Lattimer, Adams, Robinson, Landry, Bryant, Richardson-- There's not a big difference between Odel Beckham and any of these guys.  Chances are, 2 or 3 of these guys will end up better than him anyway.  The wrong move would have been panicking and trading a  1 and 2 and 4 to move up for Odel Beckham, or picking Cooks at 18.  We don't need another slot WR.  Kerley is one of the few bright spots on our offense and it would make no sense picking Cooks.

 

With Marquise Lee, Kony Ealy, Sef Jenkins and Jace Amaro on the board I hope we package up a 4th and scoop one of these guys early in the second.

 

Might be my favorite line of the whole week. 

[RSJ]

 

New to this site, been listening to the podcast the last few weeks. Don't know who you are pal but you have quite a reputation. I enjoy the podcast but it would be nice if you guys don't interrupt each other, its like listening to 3 Francesca's except you guys are not rude. I was going to jump off a bridge if the Jets drafted a WR in the first rd, thankfully the Giants did. Worst investment you can make in the 1st rd.  They rarely make pro bowl, first season are busts and we need immediate help, 3 down starters. Well we got one alright so don't hurt yourself to much while I raise my glass to the Jets leader, my man, Johnny boy. No go get us some damm weapons boys and also, OL depth, OLB, CB's and a FREAKING PUNTER

 

Here is a nice article about your WR's

 

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/explosive-draft-day-findings/5177/

 

 

Few plays are more exciting than a wide receiver hauling in a long bomb. Conversely, few decisions in football are more likely to bomb than selecting a wide receiver with a first-round draft pick.

 

You can thank the steely nerved Pigskin Bomb Squad called the Cold, Hard Football Facts for igniting the draft-day discussion with some explosive findings.

 

We looked at the past 10 drafts (1996-2005) and discovered that selecting a wide receiver in the first round is the single-worst decision your team can make on draft day. This recent history shows that first-round wide receivers have a shockingly high chance of bombing in the NFL. Just a handful of first-round wideouts over the past 10 years have flourished.

 

Not only does drafting a wide receiver bode poorly for your future, it bodes poorly for your past, too: Struggling teams are more likely than good teams to seek salvation in the form of a fleet-footed wideout (Hello, Matt Millen! – pictured here with the second of his criminally negligent three consecutive first-round wideouts, Roy Williams). More often than not, all these teams find is continued failure.

 

Interestingly – and really, this is little more than a statistical anomaly – the last five Super Bowl victors all went on to championship glory soon after losing or dumping their most recent No. 1-pick wideout.

 

The routine failure of wide receivers is particularly shocking when you consider, as we reported last week, that they have been drafted more often in the first round than any other position over the past 10 years – 45 times to be exact. Apparently, NFL GMs and coaches continue to refute the obvious lessons of the Cold, Hard Football Facts and cling to the belief that a mesmerizing wide receiver is the key to future success.

We looked back on the careers of the 45 wide receivers selected in the first round since the 1996 draft. We then placed each of them in one of five categories. You'll see in no uncertain terms that the duds far outweigh the studs.

• 3 of these 45 are NFL Superstars, rising above the expectations of even a first-round selection and likely to end up in the Hall of Fame. 
• 5 are Big-Time NFL Performers, giving the solid career performance one would reasonably expect from a top pick.
• 14 are NFL Journeymen, decent pro performers, but not quite what teams and fans expected out of their top selection.
• 8 are NFL Scrubs, serviceable second- or third-tier receivers who have clearly underperformed the expectations of a first-round pick.
• 9 are outright Busts, barely making a dent in the big leagues. These are players who were once touted as elite NFL performers but whose names today you'd hardly recognize.
• 6 were drafted last year and the Cold, Hard Football Facts feel it's too early in their careers to categorize any of these players. But, as you will see, all of the first-round wide receivers selected in 2005 underperformed the expectations of a top pick in their rookie campaign.
• A spreadsheet highlighting the career numbers of all 45 wideouts can be found here.

Put another way, 37 of the 45 first-round wide receivers selected since 1996 have failed to live up to expectations. Outright Busts, meanwhile, outnumber Superstars 3 to 1. Sure, there's some room for debate among our classifications, and some observers may move some fringe players up or down into different classifications.

 

But all the manipulation in the world will not change the Cold, Hard Football Fact that wide receivers are a high-risk, low-reward first-round selection, with a tremendous possibility of failure.

 

All-Pro Failures

How incapable have our first-round wideouts been? Well, it would be more than reasonable for a team to assume that their big-money, first-round draft pick might make a Pro Bowl once – just once – in their career. But our 45 wide receivers defy this conventional wisdom.

• 34 of the 45 have failed to make a single Pro Bowl (Koren Robinson, a No. 1 pick for Seattle in 2001, made his first Pro Bowl last year as a kick returner in Minnesota. He was not included for our purposes among those who have made a Pro Bowl.)
• These 45 wide receivers have collectively made just 28 Pro Bowl appearances.
• The three Superstars on our list account for more than half (16) of those 28 appearances: Marvin Harrison (7, pictured here), Randy Moss (5) and Torry Holt (4).
• The 42 other wide receivers have made just 12 Pro Bowl appearances among them.

Bad teams, bad decisions

Besides the fact that wide receivers are likely to fail, there's another reason why their selection is a bad sign for your team. Picking a first-round wide receiver is more often than not a sign that your team sucked the previous year.

 

Put most simply, bad teams and bad organizations tend to opt for receivers in the first round more often than good teams. Why bad teams are so thrilled by wide receivers remains a short-lived mystery we will answer next week. But suffice it to say that of the 45 wideouts selected in the first round since 1996:

• 22 were picked by teams with losing records the previous year
• 15 were picked by teams with winning records
• 6 were picked by teams with more than 10 wins
• 12 were picked by teams with more than 10 losses

In recent years, teams have continued to suck the season AFTER drafting a first-round wide receiver, too.

 

In 2005, six desperate teams selected wideouts in the first round:

• Five of those six teams sucked the following season (Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Baltimore and Atlanta).

In 2004, seven misguided teams selected wideouts in the first round:

• Six of those seven teams sucked the following season (Arizona, Detroit, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tampa and San Francisco).

In 2003, three foolish teams selected wideouts in the first round:

• All three teams sucked the following season and for years before (Detroit, Houston and Arizona).
• These three teams are a combined 31-65 (.323) since selecting wide receivers in the first round of the 2003 draft.

And consider this: Just two teams have selected three first-round wide receivers over the past 10 years. These two teams are the worst franchises in football, Detroit and Arizona.

 

Notice a trend? Bad teams make bad draft-day decisions. These bad decisions routinely involve wide receivers.

 

Dump a first-rounder, win a Super Bowl

Of the 45 wide receivers selected in the first round over the past 10 years, only three have won a Super Bowl:

• Torry Holt caught 52 passes for Super Bowl XXXIV champion St. Louis in 1999.
• Travis Taylor caught 28 passes for Super Bowl XXXV champion Baltimore in 2000.
• Keyshawn Johnson caught 76 passes for Super Bowl XXXVII champion Tampa Bay in 2002.

Interestingly, teams are more likely to win a Super Bowl if they DUMP a first-round wide receiver.

 

This year's two Super Bowl participants, Seattle and Pittsburgh, reached the big game immediately after dumping their most recent first-round wideout.

 

Seattle's Koren Robinson, a first round pick in 2001, had been a notorious underachiever. The Seahawks released him before the 2005 season, and he signed with Minnesota. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck went on to a career season and the team reached the first Super Bowl in franchise history. Robinson and the Vikings tanked.

 

Pittsburgh's Plaxico Burress, a first-round pick in 2000, had also been a notorious underachiever – and a disruptive loudmouth to boot. The Steelers shipped him off to the N.Y. Giants before the 2005 season and proceeded to win their first Super Bowl in 26 years, led by the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback in history (Ben Roethlisberger). Burress and the Giants were shut out in a wild-card playoff loss.

 

These are not isolated incidents.

 

St. Louis won its first Super Bowl in 1999, the season after it unloaded Eddie Kennison, a first-round pick in 1996. Kennison has since gone on to have a decent career, but he was a notorious underachiever his first three years in the league with St. Louis, catching just 96 passes and scoring 10 TDs. (Of course, St. Louis made one of the rare great WR decisions of the past 10 years, selecting Superstar Torry Holt in the 1999 draft.)

 

Tampa Bay won its first Super Bowl in 2002, its first year without notorious underachiever Reidel Anthony, a first-round pick in 1997.

 

New England won its first Super Bowl in 2001, a year in which troubled 1996 first-round pick Terry Glenn was benched by coach Bill Belichick. It has since won two more Super Bowls with a receiving corps led by 2nd-round pick Deion Branch, 7th-round pick David Givens and 8th-round pick Troy Brown.

 

The Class of 1996

The failure of first-round wide receivers is even more astonishing when you consider that many of the most successful receivers of the last 10 years came from the Class of 1996. This group included Superstar Marvin Harrison, Big-Time Performers Keyshawn Johnson and Eric Moulds, and solid Journeymen Terry Glenn and Eddie Kennison.

 

The Class of 1996 was, far and away, the best first-round receiving corps of the past 10 years. In fact, it was one of the best in history.

 

But this historic anomaly has been followed by abject, repeated and astonishing failure, starting with the four-man Class of 1997.

 

This ignominious group of goats in 1997 included outright Busts Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony and Rae Carruth, who's currently serving 18 to 24.* The best of the bunch was Scrub Ike Hilliard, who has caught just 403 passes and 28 TDs in his nine-year NFL career. It's not quite what the N.Y. Giants had in mind when they selected the Florida stud with the No. 7 overall pick nine years ago.

 

If we remove the five players from the stellar Class of 1996, we discover that 34 of the 40 first-round wide receivers selected since then have failed to live up to expectations.

• 2 of these 40 are NFL Superstars.
• 3 of these 40 are Big-Time NFL Performers.
• 12 of these 40 are NFL Journeymen.
• 8 of these 40 are NFL Scrubs.
• 9 of these 40 are outright Busts.
• 6 of these 40, the entire Class of 2005, failed to impress last season.

(*For the record, we do not count injuries or off-field incidents as an excuse for being a bust. Either you live up to expectations or you don't. If wide receivers seem to get injured or wind up in trouble more often than players at other positions, it merely serves to prove our point that they are poor first-round selections.)

 

So, the Cold, Hard Football Facts prove in no uncertain terms that wide receivers are notoriously poor first-round draft choices. After the draft, we'll tell you why they fail so frequently and show you that there's little correlation between big-name wide receivers and overall team success.

In other words, we'll explain why there's little reason to select a wide receiver with a No. 1 pick.

 

 

Great first post. I haven't listened to the podcast although I've been meaning to. Anyway, nice job.

[RSJ]

He didn't draft Ed Reed, he was the dline coach for the ravens then. I'm sure he wasn't banging on the table for a safety then. And while he was at the ravens I can't remember him bringing in another major safety to play alongside Reed. Then when he came to the Jets he had spare parts playing safety like Leonhard, Eric Smith...even Laron Landry was considered a spare part because of his injury history. He also got rid of Kerry Rhodes a very athletic safety. So yea his history says he doesn't value safeties

 

Rex also didn't really have a spot for a DT like Richardson either. Rex is more flexible than you guys give him credit for. He masks weaknesses and tries to give his defense the greatest chance to succeed possible. 

[Lizard King]

Might be my favorite line of the whole week.

Indeed

[CTM]

I know he's a favorite of a lot of smart people and that should be enough to buoy my dread spirits

 

 

Why? You think any of the knucklehead experts you find on the internet know squat?  

 

As for my knucklehead expert opinion, at least it wasn't the CB and I actually do like the kid as a player. What is puzzling is the amount of people on this forum acting like we got a steal. We took him right in the area most seemed to think he'd go.

[dundunit]

Rex also didn't really have a spot for a DT like Richardson either. Rex is more flexible than you guys give him credit for. He masks weaknesses and tries to give his defense the greatest chance to succeed possible. 

I agree Rex is very flexible, I was just responding to being called out for being surprised that we picked a safety because Rex has a history of not placing a high value on safeties.

[bergenjets]

This is crazy- I don't understand the hate for the pick.  Pryor is a good player and we've needed a Safety for about 18 years now.  So many people preach Best player available-- then when it happens they cry because we didn't draft a WR.  Please.  Our WR situation is already twice as good as it was last year and we still have 11 picks left.  I've got news for you-- our next pick might not be a WR either.  We are taking advantage of the depth at WR.  Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Moncrief, Lattimer, Adams, Robinson, Landry, Bryant, Richardson-- There's not a big difference between Odel Beckham and any of these guys.  Chances are, 2 or 3 of these guys will end up better than him anyway.  The wrong move would have been panicking and trading a  1 and 2 and 4 to move up for Odel Beckham, or picking Cooks at 18.  We don't need another slot WR.  Kerley is one of the few bright spots on our offense and it would make no sense picking Cooks.

 

With Marquise Lee, Kony Ealy, Sef Jenkins and Jace Amaro on the board I hope we package up a 4th and scoop one of these guys early in the second.

 

This, plus everybody was salivating over breaking the bank for Jairus Byrd and now some are upset that they grabbed arguably the best S in the draft.

[Matt39]

And if Cooks was BPA on their board?

I don't see where he fits. Kerley plays his position...the Saints were replacing Lance Moore.

[The Crusher]

Good pick of a good player were we needed one the most.

[CrazyCarl40]

Bottom line:

 

-Filled a need.

-Didn't reach.

-Wasn't a DL.

-Didn't make me want to throw things.

-Miami had to reach.

-11 more picks left.

-Upset silly Jets fans.

[dickkotite]

Im not thrilled with the pick but i can see myself liking this pryor boy a lot. hes got cute buns and that hair...omg i would grab and smell it.

 

i hope we land a solid wr. i hope we trade up a few to land lee. lees got hot buns too

[sourceworx]

Scoring TDs-overrated.

 

I must have missed the part where the other 6 rounds passed, and no offensive players were selected.

[dickkotite]

there a part of me that wnated to grab johnny football though....just for sh*tz and gigglz. its not like stacking your odds in the most important position is a bad thing

 

bu manziel isnt my type.. too small, too white, no nervousy, no ass

[NJ]

Our secondary was weak ... real weak. This just bolstered it with a guy who's a genuine popper and will have opposing wr's hearing footsteps - hopefully for many seasons to come. Great pick.

[RSJ]

I agree Rex is very flexible, I was just responding to being called out for being surprised that we picked a safety because Rex has a history of not placing a high value on safeties.

 

My bad. 

[faba]

It was an area of need and the player was one or two top safety in this draft. 

[faba]

Plus I would like to see him come off the edge and smack Brady

[CTM]

 

-Upset silly Jets fans.

 

 

The only Jets fans besides T0MShane that are upset are the ones that wanted Manziel (or bridgewater). Which I get, if I thought Manziel was definitely going to be a player and we passed on him because we have Geno and Vick, I'd be pissed too.   As for T0mShame, lets face it, the guy was going to find something to complain about no matter what. Him bitching is as reliable as the Jets sucking

[DMaynard]

He looks like a good player. It certainly fills a need. I don't know if I would draft a safety with the 18th pick of the draft unless his name was Ed Reed, but maybe things are changing with the importance of the safety position. One thing is for sure. Rex has not been able to stop opposing TEs from killing us, from pro bowlers to journeymen. Maybe he just needed a good safety? 

[GKnight83]

I am having a hard time accepting the fact they passed on a friggin X for a safety to be honest! However, I am hoping they are right here and this young S becomes something special.

[Gastineau Lives]

I don't see where he fits. Kerley plays his position...the Saints were replacing Lance Moore.

 

Well, my point is that BPA means you take the top guy on your draft board, no?

 

But now that you mention it, to call Cooks a slot receiver is wrong. He played almost exclusively on the outside. If you want to hypothetically pass on a guy in your mind because of a projection as to where he "should" be playing, that's fine. We really have nothing to discuss then.

[Sperm Edwards]

Indeed

 

Yep.  When some say "best player available" what they really mean is "best WR/TE/RB/QB available," or so it would seem.

 

Our secondary was garbage last year.  A lot of it was due to Cromartie not being the same player he was a year earlier (whatever the reason), and Milliner being so lousy for most of the year (reasons - or rationalizations - have been repeated plenty).  But secondary also includes the safeties, which everyone knows but it's easy to forget when our team has had corners like Revis and Cromartie in recent years.  The lesser-Landry kind of sucks.  Allen was benched for Ed Reed, whose physical prime is/was long past.  Though Reed can still catch if he's near the pass, none of the 3 could cover at all, or make a play on a ball in the air unless they just happened to be where the ball went (law of averages says this will happen dozens of times even though they're not good in coverage).  

 

We needed a really good safety so it fills a hole just as much as any pure-BPA pick could.  I suppose an experienced zone-corner like Patterson could convert and have excellent coverage skills (particularly for a safety), but he already gets banged up plenty just as a corner and he might not last 1 week in the role.  Otherwise, our safeties of late have had the skill sets of smaller linebackers than hitting cornerbacks.  The most notable exception was Rhodes, who seemed to be in the right place at the right time a lot and legitimately had good hands.  So it will be nice to have a true safety who's more than just a thumper-only.  Also can really help to mask a real or relative deficiency at corner.

 

I like the pick, but admittedly I like the idea of the pick (top safety prospect who could be a stud or star player at the position).  We'll see what he turns out like.  I'm just happy that he was a legitimate BPA pick (not a reach) and that the pick also fills a great need.

[Gastineau Lives]

Might be my favorite line of the whole week. 

 

Yeah, would have even better if he didn't undermine his whole point by talking about NOT having a need at a certain position.

[unbanmadmike1]

It's possible to like this player and still  believe the jets are going nowhere because the people making the decisions have no idea how to pick offensive players or build top half of the NFL offense. 

[Matt39]

It's possible to like this player and still  believe the jets are going nowhere because the people making the decisions have no idea how to pick offensive players or build top half of the NFL offense. 

 

Drafting Brandin Cooks at 18 would solidify that exact point.

[Cyberjet]

Peter Prisco gave the Jets a B minus. I'm sad. and he gave the Patriots who picked a DT with two non contact ACL injuries who takes plays off and will be great IF his knees hold up a 1st round grade A. I'm really sad.

[j4jets]

He didn't draft Ed Reed, he was the dline coach for the ravens then. I'm sure he wasn't banging on the table for a safety then. And while he was at the ravens I can't remember him bringing in another major safety to play alongside Reed. Then when he came to the Jets he had spare parts playing safety like Leonhard, Eric Smith...even Laron Landry was considered a spare part because of his injury history. He also got rid of Kerry Rhodes a very athletic safety. So yea his history says he doesn't value safeties

 

I know he wasn't the HC at Baltimore, but just simply having Ed Reed there meant he had a future hall of famer playing safety. With the Jets, he had the league best CB in Revis along with avg CBs in Strickland/Lito. He had Kerry Rhodes, who was arguably the best safety on this team amongst Eric n Leonhard. Leonhard was serviceable. He didn't need to draft a safety. Out went Rhodes because he didn't wanna play and in came Laron aka AK40 (the following yr I believe). He wasn't a spare part, though he was a temp fix. His talent was never in question. So yeah, he has a history of working with a HoF safety and is hoping that Pryor can be his next great safety.

[Sperm Edwards]

Peter Prisco gave the Jets a B minus. I'm sad. and he gave the Patriots who picked a DT with two non contact ACL injuries who takes plays off and will be great IF his knees hold up a 1st round grade A. I'm really sad.

 

When was the last time the Patriots had a great draft? And when was the last time the Patriots didn't get an A for their whole draft?  

 

I still remember all the cooing and gushing over the genius of their 2006 draft and their 10 picks.  When the dust settled, the only one worth a damn was a freaking kicker.