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Is next year the year Idzik makes a splash?


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#1 slats

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:33 PM

This was a discussion on the podcast tonight. I don't think Idzik does anything splash-like unless he's in the market for a QB. I think he's too conservative in nature, and too value driven. He needs to get the best of every deal, and it's hard to make deals with others when you're not very good at the give part of give and take.

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

He's also right on board with the ground and pound. Physicality is the key. Signed another veteran RB this year, and a big WR. Then went defense with two of his first three picks, with the third being the big TE. As much of a weapon Cooks might've potentially been, Pryor fits the team personality a lot better.

I think if he's in the market for a QB, he might be able to make a trade for the first pick of the draft - if only because he'll have weeks to negotiate it rather than ten minutes. But I think these last two years are what the future is going to bring. Value shopping in free agency, an attempt to collect comp picks, and then sitting tight and picking when it's his turn. When he has to spend money, he'll spend it to keep the guys he wants to keep.

 

Adding the JN Radio Podcast link:  http://www.jetnation...r-ny-jets-fans/


Edited by Maxman, 14 May 2014 - 09:59 PM.
added the link

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#2 Gastineau Lives

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:38 PM

This was a discussion on the podcast tonight. I don't think Idzik does anything splash-like unless he's in the market for a QB. I think he's too conservative in nature, and too value driven. He needs to get the best of every deal, and it's hard to make deals with others when you're not very good at the give part of give and take.

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

He's also right on board with the ground and pound. Physicality is the key. Signed another veteran RB this year, and a big WR. Then went defense with two of his first three picks, with the third being the big TE. As much of a weapon Cooks might've potentially been, Pryor fits the team personality a lot better.

I think if he's in the market for a QB, he might be able to make a trade for the first pick of the draft - if only because he'll have weeks to negotiate it rather than ten minutes. But I think these last two years are what the future is going to bring. Value shopping in free agency, an attempt to collect comp picks, and then sitting tight and picking when it's his turn. When he has to spend money, he'll spend it to keep the guys he wants to keep.

 

Idzik meet the cash floor. Floor, this is John Idzik.


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#3 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:40 PM

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.


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#4 slats

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:44 PM

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.


Yeah, I heard you say so, but I just don't believe it. I don't see him spending big in free agency. He's just too value concious, too concerned with getting the better of the deal.
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#5 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:50 PM

Yeah, I heard you say so, but I just don't believe it. I don't see him spending big in free agency. He's just too value concious, too concerned with getting the better of the deal.

 

 

I disagree. I don't think he'll be frivolous, and he'll definitely cover his ass, but I think what we're witnessing is a GM flipping a roster and holding back cash to make the big strike(s) when it's time to compete for titles. I just don't think he believes that time is now.


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#6 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:53 PM

Probably not. Seems like the general rule for building and maintaining is to keep free agency at an arm's length and Idzik subscribes to that philosophy. If he was going to bend on that he would have already done it when Woody tried to get him to.

 

I'm sure there will be another Decker-esque addition or two next year but I don't think it's going to go much further than that. If we were going to be in the habit of paying guys we already would have started down that road with Howard and DRC. The nice part about that is it doesn't make it very stressful for when it comes time to resign Wilkerson and Harrison, and eventually Richardson.


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#7 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:56 PM

The acid test player was Desean Jackson, imo, because he's young and an elite talent that wouldn't break the bank, so you guys could be correct, but I do think the big buys are coming next year. I don't see how he casn hope to compete for titles drafting safeties and DEs and signing #2 receivers.


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#8 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:02 PM

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.

 

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.


Edited by RutgersJetFan, 14 May 2014 - 09:03 PM.

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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#9 Gastineau Lives

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:04 PM

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.

 

There's a lot of room between where the Jets are now and maxing out. Minimuming out is still somewhere up the ladder at this point.


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#10 sourceworx

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:10 PM

I disagree. I don't think he'll be frivolous, and he'll definitely cover his ass, but I think what we're witnessing is a GM flipping a roster and holding back cash to make the big strike(s) when it's time to compete for titles. I just don't think he believes that time is now.

 

 

I completely agree.  Idzik inherited a team that lacked both top-tier talent and there was no depth, whatsoever.  The accumulation of draft picks shows that he's building up the bottom of the roster while the (hopeful) solution at QB develops.  If Geno continues to build off of his play at the end of last year, I'd expect to see bigger moves next offseason. 


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#11 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:11 PM

There's a lot of room between where the Jets are now and maxing out. Minimuming out is still somewhere up the ladder at this point.

 

Of course there is. There will be moves, but nothing along the lines of what's being inquired upon. This is what we hired.


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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#12 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:11 PM

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.

 

 

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.


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#13 Jets80

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:12 PM

I think that John Idzik's plan will stay status quo.  I'm sure that you'll continue to see him be a tough negotiator and sign players at positions of need under his circumstances while continuing to build this team through the draft.  Even if (hypothetically) the team had $100M in cap space, you won't see Idzik make any irrational decisions.  I'm sure he's going to stick to his plan.


Edited by Jets80, 14 May 2014 - 09:15 PM.

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#14 slats

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:16 PM

The acid test player was Desean Jackson, imo, because he's young and an elite talent that wouldn't break the bank, so you guys could be correct, but I do think the big buys are coming next year. I don't see how he casn hope to compete for titles drafting safeties and DEs and signing #2 receivers.


I think he likes drafting DEs and Safeties, and will continue to lean towards players less likely to bust in the first round, especially. QBs and WRs have a high bust rate. I think he shares Rex's defense first mentality, too, although it was nice to see him address the passing game directly this offseason. Number one receivers and franchise QBs don't hit free agency all that often, either. Not as often as lesser players getting paid as if they were that good. He would have to take that risk in the draft, and he hasn't shown that he has the stomach for that, yet. And if the Jets hover around 8-8 again, such a risk would involve trading picks, which is something else he hasn't been able to do.
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#15 stoicsentry

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:17 PM

Why are Wilkerson's and Kerley's names brought up so often as if we're on this financial cliff and Idzik has to go all hands on deck to try and extend them? This time next year, we could afford to pay 3 Wilkerson's without batting an eye.


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#16 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:17 PM

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.

 

The degree of aggressiveness that you're speculating on is not how it works. Cap space isn't used simply to use it. Again, this is what we hired. A long-term starter (or two at best) per year through free agency/trades and continuously replenishing through the draft. That's what we're getting. He's not going to go all-in on Geno for a window because the philosophy demands never sacrificing the long for the short. Aggressive sustainability, if you will.

 

And Roddy White will be 33 next year. If that's your definition of going aggressive then you've gotten soft.


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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#17 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:25 PM

The degree of aggressiveness that you're speculating on is not how it works. Cap space isn't used simply to use it. Again, this is what we hired. A long-term starter (or two at best) per year through free agency/trades and continuously replenishing through the draft. That's what we're getting. He's not going to go all-in on Geno for a window because the philosophy demands never sacrificing the long for the short. Aggressive sustainability, if you will.

And Roddy White will be 33 next year. If that's your definition of going aggressive then you've gotten soft.



I wanted to say Dez, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.
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#18 LionelRichie

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:27 PM


With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.
 

 

Great post Slats.    I think Idzik tries to capitalize on other teams making desperate moves in the draft.   If they aren't desperate he doesn't move, and it's tough to negotiate in a 5 minute window.     He needs to be careful because at some point the phone just stops ringing.  

 

Couple of q's for you:

 

1 - was Pryor still the pick if some combination of Beckham, Barr, Martin, Fuller were still available?  

 

2 - What is the plan if Geno isn't the man?  


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#19 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:28 PM

I think he likes drafting DEs and Safeties, and will continue to lean towards players less likely to bust in the first round, especially. QBs and WRs have a high bust rate. I think he shares Rex's defense first mentality, too, although it was nice to see him address the passing game directly this offseason. Number one receivers and franchise QBs don't hit free agency all that often, either. Not as often as lesser players getting paid as if they were that good. He would have to take that risk in the draft, and he hasn't shown that he has the stomach for that, yet. And if the Jets hover around 8-8 again, such a risk would involve trading picks, which is something else he hasn't been able to do.



Agreed, but I think at some point he has to sh*t or get off the pot as far as going for a title goes. He's going to have to take his shot here, and soon. No way is he committed to a 5-year rebuild with a coach on a year-to-year deal.
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#20 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:28 PM

I wanted to say Dez, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

 

Even if that's the case, what I'm trying to say is that's all we'd get. Don't think we have an offseason like 2008 coming up in 2015 or 2016, it's not happening.


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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.


#21 LionelRichie

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:30 PM

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.

 

with the salary cap continuing to climb most teams can afford to re-sign their own players.    Idzik doesn't seem the type to "win" a bidding war so with the cap going up I don't see how he makes big moves without overpaying.  


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#22 Matt39

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:32 PM

The QB class this year stunk. Hope the defense can mirror the Seahawks(a poor version at least) and run the football...if the Jets are going to win it's not going to be through the air behind some elite QB that doesnt exist.


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#23 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:33 PM

Even if that's the case, what I'm trying to say is that's all we'd get. Don't think we have an offseason like 2008 coming up in 2015 or 2016, it's not happening.


Oh, no, me either. I'm just saying that he's eventually going to have to break away from the uber-conservative plan he's working with now as the team gets incrementally better. It's ok to pass on Desean when you suck, but it's another thing to do it if you're a solid 8-9 win level roster looking to jump up to 12-4.
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#24 T0mShane

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:36 PM

with the salary cap continuing to climb most teams can afford to re-sign their own players. Idzik doesn't seem the type to "win" a bidding war so with the cap going up I don't see how he makes big moves without overpaying.



If he's going to win titles, he's going to have to overpay along the way. For instance, he supposedly got beat to Marqise Lee this year, and he lost out on Tavon Austin this year. If that keeps happening because he's trying to save a fourth round pick, he's going to end up having to overpay for a Percy Harvin down the line.
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#25 RutgersJetFan

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 09:36 PM

Oh, no, me either. I'm just saying that he's eventually going to have to break away from the uber-conservative plan he's working with now as the team gets incrementally better. It's ok to pass on Desean when you suck, but it's another thing to do it if you're a solid 8-9 win level roster looking to jump up to 12-4.

 

Kelly cut Desean because he's a douchebag. We passed on Desean because he's a douchebag. Dan Snyder signed him because he's a douchebag and likes other douchebags. We'll probably keep passing on guys who are douchebags. Even if we're 11-5 next year, I'd bet a billion dollars that we don't sign any douchebags.


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(Chandler)'s a nice piece as long as he's the 7th most important player on your roster....I think they're going to be disappointed when they see he's just a pumped-up Drew Gooden.





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