slats Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Not as juiced about us fixing the strong safety position as some are, I suppose. I can't believe that the three teams who took QBs in the first round have a lower Vegas win number than the Jets. Crazy. That team who took Carr in the second, too. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 That's actually high considering the negative public perception of the Jets. Basically the Jets record can vary from 4-10 wins based solely on the performance of two players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 I can't believe that the three teams who took QBs in the first round have a lower Vegas win number than the Jets. Crazy. That team who took Carr in the second, too. I don't get it. 4.6 running SS. Best run defense in the league, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 4.6 running SS. Best run defense in the league, baby. Idzik is Rex's bitch. Deal with it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 Basically the Jets record can vary from 4-10 wins based solely on the performance of two players. Tom Brady and EJ Mauel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 Idzik is Rex's bitch. Deal with it. Lol. Pyrrhic victories ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Though I'd be curious what the odds are on the Vick vs. Geno battle and how that factors into the over/under. I don't think any sites have constructed a model for that and to my knowledge no casinos have put together anything. Re: the latter I don't think very much, these aren't win probability models. I've always been under the impression that this particular sort is based in linear probability and multinomial logit (or similar). Since the difference between the two quarterbacks is an uncertainty at this point, if they're using it at all I think it's more likely that they're controlling for the quarterback situation than using it as a variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I'm not sure whom to believe--the multi-billion dollar industry commonly referred to as "Vegas," or the 300 17-year olds on Twitter typing out "yo jets r goin 12-4 this year I don't care #jetslife" Trust your inner pedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoicsentry Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 No. I'm saying that they're still not over the The Tanny, Rex, Woody Barnum & Bailey Show, and just like last year the line is wrong. Depending on how it's bet it could change again. The National media has been dead wrong about them for over a year. Opinions gain momentum and douche bags like Peter King who don't know anything jump on the bandwagon. The lines have been a reflection of that. I didn't say Idzik was great. If you don't think they're improved that's your opinion. We all have 'em. I do think they're improved. Not by much, but they're improved for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derp Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 It's a pretty fair number, and maybe trying to get people to take the over. I imagine sharps don't take season win totals, but if any do I'd be curious to see where the money is on this one. Despite the negative public perception of the Jets, the simple logic here would be for someone to think that the Jets were 8-8 last year and likely got better over the offseason - so over 7 is a pretty easy bet. Of course that would be ignoring a few things: the Jets had (I believe) the worst scoring differential of any .500 or better team ever, lucked into a win or two last season with late penalties, and have what appears (on paper) to be a substantially more difficult schedule than last year. Granted the schedule on paper is never actually what it seems. Realistically I expect the Jets to field a much better football team in 2014 and end up with about the same record, give or take a couple of games. And, provided the young guys show well, I think that's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetfanincanada Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Easiest money ever. Put every dollar you own and can borrow on the Jets over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 7 is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Any favorites? I'm thinking of taking the under for Cinci and Tampa. Maybe the over for Jax and Detroit. Bet season unders, not overs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Easiest money ever. Put every dollar you own and can borrow on the Jets over. Never bet on the Jets, they will break your heart every single damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawn306 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 If the Jets stay healthy I think the Jets are good for 8 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj meadowlands Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I'm not really surprised that the Jets would be o/u at 7. I AM surprised at how high some other teams are in relation to the Jets (i.e., Cowboys at 8, Redskins at 7.5, Dolphins at 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionelRichie Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 vick signing aside, this team is at least likeable again. The Jets were hard to like in '11 + '12. A cry baby QB with an albatross contract, turdtonio, plaxico, mason, a broken down and overpaid bart scott, and no leadership on either side of the ball with no plan in the front office made every sunday depressing. If nothing else at least now there seems to be a plan and a youth movement. The team may still be a year or two away but the building blocks are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj meadowlands Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 vick signing aside, this team is at least likeable again. The Jets were hard to like in '11 + '12. A cry baby QB with an albatross contract, turdtonio, plaxico, mason, a broken down and overpaid bart scott, and no leadership on either side of the ball with no plan in the front office made every sunday depressing. If nothing else at least now there seems to be a plan and a youth movement. The team may still be a year or two away but the building blocks are in place. Might be in the minority, but I think Vick adds to the likeability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 the team is better than last year but the schedule is also harder than last year. There's a couple of stretches for example (Den at home followed by at NE on 4 days rest... @ KC) that are downright unwinnable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billo83 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Bet season unders, not overs. if you did that last year on the Jets you would have lost the farm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Might be in the minority, but I think Vick adds to the likeability. Scumbagability, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernJet Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Over, easy $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arsis Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I'll bet a brand new elite Pryor Jersey on the over. Any of you cry babies want to do more than bitch and moan? Tom? Stoic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Bet season unders, not overs. There is a slight bias toward the over here. Each year there are 256 "wins" in the NFL and 256 "losses"; but add all of these up and it equals 258. Honestly surprised there is not more of an over bias, because typically these are homer "i'll put $100 on my team when I'm in vegas" type of bets. not judging just saying what it is--fun bets. so yes, statistically you have a slightly less chance to win an over than an under on these bets. (and if you bet the jets over, a significantly less chance--kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 There is a slight bias toward the over here. Each year there are 256 "wins" in the NFL and 256 "losses"; but add all of these up and it equals 258. Not that this has anything to do with the reason you bet unders (injuries duh), this is an under bias, not an over bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Not that this has anything to do with the reason you bet unders (injuries duh), this is an under bias, not an over bias. injuries can also help you win games--if they happen to your opponent. the bias is a direct result of more people betting on their team than betting against others. if a typical fan is in vegas he is more likely to bet on the jets over than the pats under as a "for fun bet," so they juice it a little to bring bets in on the other side. although it is less of an effect than i would've expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 I'll bet a brand new elite Pryor Jersey on the over. Any of you cry babies want to do more than bitch and moan? Tom? Stoic? Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus. 9 would be a great accomplishment. i expect 6 wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 injuries can also help you win games--if they happen to your opponent. the bias is a direct result of more people betting on their team than betting against others. if a typical fan is in vegas he is more likely to bet on the jets over than the pats under as a "for fun bet," so they juice it a little to bring bets in on the other side. although it is less of an effect than i would've expected. Less as in the effect is exactly the opposite of what you think it should be, yes. An aggregate total that is greater than the number of possible wins is an under bias. Your theories are interesting but no substitute for basic math as far as gambling is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Less as in the effect is exactly the opposite of what you think it should be, yes. An aggregate total that is greater than the number of possible wins is an under bias. Your theories are interesting but no substitute for basic math as far as gambling is concerned. we are talking about the same type of bias--that the line favors the under bet--just used the wrong term. you are hung up on semantics and kind of being a b**** to someone trying to have an interesting discussion with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus. August: ESPN analysts pick Jets to win 4-6 games. Jets fans dismiss these predictions out of hand and commence a full-scale assault on ESPN analysts' wisdom, objectivity, appearance, and sexuality. January: Jets conclude 9-win non-playoff season. Jets fans declare that ESPN analysts' preseason predictions are the only objective yardstick by which the season can be judged, conclude that when you think about it, the Jets are basically as good as [eventual Super Bowl winner]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 9 would be a great accomplishment. i expect 6 wins I meant to type "8," actually. I think the defense holds enough bad teams down, and Decker picks up enough first downs to help steal a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 August: ESPN analysts pick Jets to win 4-6 games. Jets fans dismiss these predictions out of hand and commence a full-scale assault on ESPN analysts' wisdom, objectivity, appearance, and sexuality. January: Jets conclude 9-win non-playoff season. Jets fans declare that ESPN analysts' preseason predictions are the only objective yardstick by which the season can be judged, conclude that when you think about it, the Jets are basically as good as [eventual Super Bowl winner]. ESPN said we'd win 4 and we won 8 so that's +4 and they said the fagtriots would win 12 and they won 11 so what's better +4 or -1? Hello it's called math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Taking the over might be a good 401K option for some of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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