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Trade with SF? (an idea, not a rumor)


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30 replies to this topic

#1 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:20 PM

They lost Dorsey on Friday with a torn biceps (probably, but not definitely, out for the season).

 

Next guy up, Ian Williams, is a walking injury report (Rotoworld says he's had 4 ankle surgeries since week 2 last season, when he broke it in his only NFL start, and is presently on the active/PUP list).

 

We've got some depth behind Harrison with trade value, namely Ellis, who's a UFA next season anyway. But specifically at NT the next guy up would be the practice squad kid Barnes. He's freaking enormous, but that hardly means he can play. I doubt he has much trade value, but Ellis would garner a pick.  What level pick I have no idea, but we wouldn't get back the 3rd we used to draft him in the first place.  If I had a gun to my head I'd guess his value is a 5th, maybe a 6th.

 

What's more valuable to the team in 2014? A 2015 later pick or one more year of Ellis backing up Harrison? Given how easily guys this size can get injured (not to mention tired), and knowing nothing about Barnes, I'd probably say keep Ellis. But if Dorsey is clearly gone for the season it could have a major impact on their entire defense. In a situation like that, since they're true SB contenders (certainly they'd feel that way), what if they did offer up a 4th or even a 3rd to keep those hopes realistic ? Keep in mind they'll most likely have a bottom-6 pick in any round.

 

Hard to say. If they could get a 4th (certainly a 3rd) I'd have to say ship him off. If he wasn't on the team right now and we had a pair of 4th rounders, how many here would advocate trading one of them away for Ellis to back up Harrison for a year, after which time he hits free agency? A lot of people weren't that thrilled when we traded a 4th for Ivory, and he was picked up to be a 200-300 touch/year starter for the next 3 seasons.

 

5th rounder as a top offer? A close call; I think it would still be best to keep him and gamble we could re-sign Ellis if there isn't a bidding war for him to start elsewhere.  6th or later I'd say keep him for sure, again since we're talking about a late 6th. If we really value a late 6th rounder that much then trade down 3-4 slots in the 3rd round next April and hang onto Ellis for this season. A late 6th is just too easy to recoup. 

 

Anyone think SF might have an interest? They did draft a NT in the 5th last year but he's surely not as talented/good as Ellis, doesn't have a "true" NT's body/build, and was on & off the PS last season.  Presently he's only at the top of their depth chart due to 2 other guys being injured.

 

Anyway it was just at thought.


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#2 TuscanyTile2

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:12 PM

I normally don't read trade ideas but I respect your opinion so I read this one.  I have to admit I have no idea what determines trade value in the NFL.  It feels to me like a 1st rounder is always valued more than almost any player (including guys who were drafted 1st the year prior).  It also feels to me like anything after the 4th round (5th and up) is considered more of a crapshoot.  So if we could get a 4th for Ellis (even if a bottom 6 4th) I would think Idzik would be interested.


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#3 JetsFanInDenver

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:19 PM

I really dont know the SF team roster very well and not even what picks they have to trade.

 

But if this is a need based pick for them to keep them viable for a SB contention than anything less than a 3rd is a bad trade for the JETS. Given as you correctly stated that this SF's pick would most like be at the bottom of each round the JETS should not settle for less than a 3rd round pick.


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#4 joewilly12

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:28 PM

No way in hell do we trade Ellis hes going to have a beast year why trade for draft picks who are unproven.


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#5 Il Mostro

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 02:58 PM

I think Ellis is worth more than a compensatory level pick, and the 9ers are in a little bit of deep yogurt right now.  Squeezing them for a 3rd rounder shouldn't be too tough, especially since it is likely coming at the bottom of the round.  Ellis is going to be a good starter for someone in his next life.  I would be shocked if he is re-signable as a FA.


Edited by Il Mostro, 03 August 2014 - 03:00 PM.

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#6 32EBoozer

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 03:03 PM

I normally don't read trade ideas but I respect your opinion so I read this one.  I have to admit I have no idea what determines trade value in the NFL.  It feels to me like a 1st rounder is always valued more than almost any player (including guys who were drafted 1st the year prior).  It also feels to me like anything after the 4th round (5th and up) is considered more of a crapshoot.  So if we could get a 4th for Ellis (even if a bottom 6 4th) I would think Idzik would be interested.

I think I'd hold on to Ellis rather than take a late 4th or 5th for him. Guys huge and had a good scrimmage last night.

 

On a side note.... did you get the PM I sent you about joining the old Jet boards Fantasy Football League. All the old timers are in.


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#7 32EBoozer

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 03:04 PM

I think Ellis is worth more than a compensatory level pick, and the 9ers are in a little bit of deep yogurt right now.  Squeezing them for a 3rd rounder shouldn't be too tough, especially since it is likely coming at the bottom of the round.  Ellis is going to be a good starter for someone in his next life.  I would be shocked if he is re-signable as a FA.

+1


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#25 PryorConvictions


#8 #27TheDominator

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 03:08 PM

I think it takes these guys time to develop and I would much prefer Ellis to a 5th. Even for just the one year. 


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#9 Arsis

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 03:21 PM

Do they have anyone at backup we can use? 5th round picks are all but useless. I'd rather have a competent backup for the year than a pick with a >50% bust rate.
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#10 BurnleyJet

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 04:09 PM

Ellis will fetch a big contract after this season we will get at least a 4th in a conditional selection.
Keep him.
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#11 bergenjets

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:47 PM

Ellis will fetch a big contract after this season we will get at least a 4th in a conditional selection.
Keep him.

 

 

This, Nothing less than a third for him. The scenario where the Jets lose out is if he gets injured again, otherwise they'd be trading him short. Not Idzik's MO.

 

Close games are won by domination of the LOS in the 4th quarter and having depth on the Dline is key in these situations. Also, can't have too many quality defensive linemen in a division with Brady in it, even at 37.


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#12 slats

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 06:20 PM

Ellis will fetch a big contract after this season we will get at least a 4th in a conditional selection.
Keep him.


This is the way the Jets should be thinking, but if they are, I think they'd disagree with you.

A conditional 4th rounder for Ellis would be a post-#32 selection in the fourth round of 2016. Trading him for a fourth rounder would be a pre-#32 selection in 2015. So it would be a decision based on what they feel they would get out of Ellis for one year vs. getting a slightly higher pick a year earlier. And if they're currently thinking about resigning him or letting him go - that's a big consideration, too.

I'd think a fourth rounder would be something of a toss-up, but a third would be a no-brainer. And if SF was willing to offer something like a fourth and a sixth, the Jets would probably be inclined to do that, too.
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#13 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 06:33 PM

Ellis will fetch a big contract after this season we will get at least a 4th in a conditional selection.
Keep him.

I think that's kind of wishful thinking. A 4th would be if we lost him and he got a contract for probably more than $5M/year with a whole bunch guaranteed/up front in year one. As of today, he's not looking at a contract even near that level. He's never started more than 2 games in a season and only an injury to Harrison would allow him to reach (never mind eclipse) that before he hits free agency.

Dorsey was a top 10 pick, started every game since getting drafted (other than 2012 when he got hurt), and was signed to $3M/year. Ellis isn't getting double the contract Dorsey got before anyone's seen that he could stay healthy when starting double-digit games/year. Ellis has only made it through 16 games once as a BACKUP. Year 1 missed 11 games, year 2 missed a month, and year 4 is anyone's guess.

I think the likely compensatory pick for Ellis is a 6th round pick in 2016, which is the value of a very late 7th round pick in 2015. There's a good possibility that he signs somewhere for a 1-2 year deal in the $2-3M/year range, and that's not sniffing at a 4th round compensatory pick.

That being said, my personal cutoff would be a 4th rounder unless Idzik has plans of extending him during the season or if he's confident he can/will re-sign him after the season. I wouldn't spend a 4th round pick to rent an injury-prone, backup DT for 1 season. A 3rd and I'd rush to make the deal before another team comes to their rescue.
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#14 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 06:37 PM

No way in hell do we trade Ellis hes going to have a beast year why trade for draft picks who are unproven.


Um, because he's not starting and he's going to be a free agent after the season. If he has a "beast year" it would likely only be in the event that someone else gets injured.

If he has a "beast year" AS a backup, then that would virtually guarantee he's not going to be a Jet in 2015. He'd then command too much in FA than we (or anyone) would match for him to be a backup NT.

It's all just an academic conversation anyway; there's been no indication that SF has shown any interest in him.
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#15 Blackout

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 06:54 PM

No way in hell do we trade Ellis hes going to have a beast year why trade for draft picks who are unproven.

 

 

yeah.  Ellis is going to lead us to the Superbowl.


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#16 JayKwaz

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 09:34 PM

I would make the trade for OLB Cory Lemonier, not for a pick.
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#17 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 07:21 AM

I would make the trade for OLB Cory Lemonier, not for a pick.


That may not be as easy as it seems just because he was a backup. Brooks will need to restructure again next year or he'll hit free agency at age 31. SF may just want Lemonier to step up and be the starter in 2015.

As of now, it looks like Brooks has cap numbers of $18-19M in each of the last 3 years of his deal (2015-2017). He's not seeing that for one year, let alone three.
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#18 JayKwaz

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 08:37 AM

Not saying it would happen, but that would be my request.


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#19 RSJ

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 08:49 AM

I wouldn't be interested in trading him at this point. Ellis doesn't just back up Harrison, he also backs up Richardson in some packages. And in some packages, such as a goal line package, you could legit have all three on the field at the same time (depending on how Rex plays it). He is in a contract year and I expect he will come of age this year. With the Jets cap situation, they really should not be afraid of resigning anyone they want to. 


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#20 Integrity28

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:11 AM

Our depth is one of our points of strength as a team now. It can be the difference maker for us 14 weeks into the season, when other teams are haunted by their lack of depth. It could help us over the playoff hurdle. 

 

So, I wouldn't bother. I don't think we'd get anything back in return of enough value to justify taking away from our strongest unit. The ONLY scenario where it'd be worth doing is if we have someone else ready to take his spot in rotation. Do we?


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#21 #27TheDominator

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 10:12 AM

Interesting thing is the other guy we'd consider a back-up is T.J. Barnes the mountain from Georgia Tech.  He is listed at 6'7" 364, but I had read he lost like 25 lbs.  That is huge, but kind of tall for NT where you are looking for leverage.  Presumably he would be good at clogging the middle, but IMO those guys take time to develop.  FWIW, the Jets depth chart has Ellis listed as the only back up NT with Barnes listed at backup DT ahead of Hyder and Zach Thompson behind Richardson.  Douzable is first behind Wilkerson.  I assume they treat those positions differently, but these depth charts are historically pretty inaccurate.


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#22 bitonti

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 11:06 AM

player for player swaps rarely happen but what about Alex Boone? 27 year old pro bowl guard, extended hold out....


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#23 Greenseed4

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 11:07 AM

I don't support it, but if you're going to entertain the thoughts of trading from an area of strength, you might as well aim to fix an area of weakness that happens to be your trading partners area of strength.  In this case, relieve them of the whole Alex Boone fiasco.  He wants more money, they don't want to give it to him.

 

WE have more money.

He has his issues, but he's an incredible player when motivated and gives you options at OG and OT. 


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#24 Greenseed4

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 11:07 AM

player for player swaps rarely happen but what about Alex Boone? 27 year old pro bowl guard, extended hold out....

 

ninja


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#25 Matt39

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 11:20 AM

player for player swaps rarely happen but what about Alex Boone? 27 year old pro bowl guard, extended hold out....

 

Would make a ton of sense...the Niners did swap Jenkins for Baldwin(who I believe they just cut).


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