Jump to content

  •  

Welcome to JetNation.com


Sign In  Log in with Facebook Log in with Twitter

Create Account
Welcome to JetNation.com, your home for New York Jets talk. We are an independent site, which means we aren't affiliated with the NY Jets or SNY. The opinions here are never censored. We want you to join in on the conversation, but don't worry this is a simple and FREE process. Be apart of JetNation.com by signing in or creating an account. When you create an account, you can also opt to use your existing Facebook or Twitter login.
  • Start new topics and reply to others
  • Subscribe to topics and forums to get email updates
  • Get your own profile page and make new friends
  • Send personal messages to other members.
Also be sure to check us out on Facebook and Twitter.
 
Guest Message by DevFuse

Photo
- - - - -

FiveThirtyEight predicts 7 wins for Jets


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 JohnnnyBONES

JohnnnyBONES

    Advanced Member

  • Facebook \ Twitter
  • PipPipPip
  • 40 posts

Posted 02 September 2014 - 12:48 PM

This is a pretty interesting read overall.  They're setting the Pats wins at 9.5.  Seems low, but these geeks are not to stifled with.  http://fivethirtyeig...iotic-afc-east/

 

 

 

 

New York Jets
  • Expected wins: 7.0
  • Playoff probability: 25 percent (15 percent to win the AFC East)
  • Super Bowl win probability: 1 percent

 

Five of the eight Jets victories last year were by a touchdown or less, and none was by greater than 13 points. That’s unusual — point differential tends to be fairly predictive of a team’s record. As in baseball, we can calculate a Pythagorean win total for each team that indicates how many games it should have won based off its point differential over the season.

 

My colleague Neil Paine did so in 2013 and recently updated his work by controlling for a team’s strength of schedule. According to his formula, the Jets should have won only 5.3 games last year, 2.7 wins fewer than they actually picked up. That makes the Jets a clear outlier — one that twice exceeded the standard error of estimate. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, teams outperformed their Pythagorean win total by as much as the Jets did last year only 32 times.

 

Such unexpected performance in one season has been somewhat useful in helping to predict the next. For the aforementioned 32 teams that outperformed expectation, the median win total the next season was 3.0 wins lower than it was the prior season. That’s very close to the 3.2 fewer wins that the Pythagorean win total suggested these teams should have had in the prior year. Only one team of the 32 actually saw its win total increase from the prior year.

 

The Jets can potentially take comfort in the performance of the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were able to win 11 games in 2013, even though the 2012 Colts finished five wins better than their Pythagorean win total suggested. And like the 2013 Colts, the 2014 Jets will be starting a second-year quarterback, Geno Smith.

 

I doubt, though, that many people would confuse Smith for Andrew Luck.

 


  • 0

#2 slats

slats

    9 5/8" hands

  • Moderators
  • 19,412 posts
  • LocationAcross the Universe

Posted 02 September 2014 - 01:23 PM

Does Nate Silver have any track record predicting NFL seasons?
  • 0
back in my room
wish you were dead
you bawl like the baby
in Eraserhead

#3 dbatesman

dbatesman

    Failgoat 2.0

  • Members
  • 8,659 posts

Posted 02 September 2014 - 01:24 PM

Does Nate Silver have any track record predicting NFL seasons?


UnskewedJets.com has us going 14-2, FWIW
  • 1

This is like having a cat with leukemia.


#4 slats

slats

    9 5/8" hands

  • Moderators
  • 19,412 posts
  • LocationAcross the Universe

Posted 02 September 2014 - 01:28 PM

UnskewedJets.com has us going 14-2, FWIW


They're clearly not aware of what Idzik has been doing to this team.
  • 0
back in my room
wish you were dead
you bawl like the baby
in Eraserhead

#5 dbatesman

dbatesman

    Failgoat 2.0

  • Members
  • 8,659 posts

Posted 02 September 2014 - 01:29 PM

Also, just FYI, Expected Wins isn't a prediction.
  • 0

This is like having a cat with leukemia.


#6 JohnnnyBONES

JohnnnyBONES

    Advanced Member

  • Facebook \ Twitter
  • PipPipPip
  • 40 posts

Posted 02 September 2014 - 02:46 PM

But math!
  • 0

#7 bitonti

bitonti

    Draft Bathroom Attendant

  • Members
  • 14,937 posts

Posted 02 September 2014 - 02:50 PM

UnskewedJets.com has us going 14-2, FWIW

 

dude scout.com just bought that site


  • 0

My posts have to get worse, so they can get better.


#8 FloridaJetsFan

FloridaJetsFan

    Hail Caesar

  • Members
  • 2,479 posts
  • LocationNavarre, FL

Posted 02 September 2014 - 03:20 PM

"I doubt, though, that many people would confuse Smith for Andrew Luck."

 

Racist ...


  • 0

#9 Gen X Jet

Gen X Jet

    Maybe Next Year

  • Members
  • 597 posts
  • LocationSuffolk County

Posted 02 September 2014 - 03:34 PM

Ominous


  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users