Sperm Edwards Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 pretty much I was going to get into that as well, but I'd written plenty. A player's going to want to play through the later, higher-$ years of his deal. For a WR, the likelihood of collecting between $15-20M from the Jets is going to decrease if he has a typical Jets QB throwing it to him for the first 2 years of the deal. And if we let him go his value won't be the same again until he spends a year with a non-Jets QB. But for the 2 guys mentioned, franchise tag notwithstanding, the odds are the deal they get in (or before) March is going to be the last big payday they'll get. And also we suck. The higher taxes are just a bonus gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 cliff's notes: fact is you can afford almost any player if you are willing to mortgage the future. you can restructure the whole team if you want into guaranteed money and keep kicking the can down the road. but eventually chickens come home to roost--this was what tanny did. actually the cliff notes is that Harvin's $6M from 2014 won't stop us from doing anything, and a $15M/year player doesn't carry a cap charge of half that in year 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I was going to get into that as well, but I'd written plenty. A player's going to want to play through the later, higher-$ years of his deal. For a WR, the likelihood of collecting between $15-20M from the Jets is going to decrease if he has a typical Jets QB throwing it to him for the first 2 years of the deal. And if we let him go his value won't be the same again until he spends a year with a non-Jets QB. But for the 2 guys mentioned, franchise tag notwithstanding, the odds are the deal they get in (or before) March is going to be the last big payday they'll get. And also we suck. The higher taxes are just a bonus gift. not to mention dez and demayrius are on a hall of fame trajectory--they can kiss that goodbye if they come here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 actually the cliff notes is that Harvin's $6M from 2014 won't stop us from doing anything, and a $15M/year player doesn't carry a cap charge of half that in year 1. see, you do have it in you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 see, you do have it in you But I have other things in me as well. And I must get them out. Onto JetNation. All of it. All of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 not to mention dez and demayrius are on a hall of fame trajectory--they can kiss that goodbye if they come here Well Marshall already did his time in Miami. Then again, he thinks Cutler sucks, and Cutler's not going anywhere, so it's possible he only re-signs with Chicago if he gets tagged. And even if someone somehow offers up a pair of #1s for him at age 31, Chicago can always match the deal (but probably they wouldn't since it's the equivalent of them forking over 2 #1s to him once those picks are in their hands). If they tag him, Chicago might take only one #1 if that top offer is a top 5 pick (like from the Jets), but I don't see us or anyone doing that just because of his age. Money's one thing. Money AND a top pick is quite another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Well Marshall already did his time in Miami. Then again, he thinks Cutler sucks, and Cutler's not going anywhere, so it's possible he only re-signs with Chicago if he gets tagged. And even if someone somehow offers up a pair of #1s for him at age 31, Chicago can always match the deal (but probably they wouldn't since it's the equivalent of them forking over 2 #1s to him once those picks are in their hands). If they tag him, Chicago might take only one #1 if that top offer is a top 5 pick (like from the Jets), but I don't see us or anyone doing that just because of his age. Money's one thing. Money AND a top pick is quite another. ya, no old guys. the best case scenario is probably we bring in a journeyman to keep us competitive in most games while we groom a rookie on the bench. pointless to bring in a 31 year old who won't be the same player when the rookie is ready to take the reins. we aren't going anywhere next year absent a crazy scenarios where we trade for one of the top QBs in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ya, no old guys. the best case scenario is probably we bring in a journeyman to keep us competitive in most games while we groom a rookie on the bench. pointless to bring in a 31 year old who won't be the same player when the rookie is ready to take the reins. we aren't going anywhere next year absent a crazy scenarios where we trade for one of the top QBs in the league. Well I don't think it's pointless to get a unique player, even if he's 31. Whoever we bring in here at QB will benefit from it, and will surely hide some weaknesses. Won't make a bad QB into a good one, but it'll only help. Wouldn't give up a top 5 pick for a 31 year old WR, though, even though an on-his-meds Marshall is a hard guy not to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lets unload JF80 to Jetsinsider.com Can we throw BP in? Maybe we'll get JumbalayaJet or 32Green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Well I don't think it's pointless to get a unique player, even if he's 31. Whoever we bring in here at QB will benefit from it, and will surely hide some weaknesses. Won't make a bad QB into a good one, but it'll only help. Wouldn't give up a top 5 pick for a 31 year old WR, though, even though an on-his-meds Marshall is a hard guy not to like. ok pointless wrong word--pointless to spend a ton (cash/picks) for a guy who won't be in his prime by the time we figure the qb situation out--assuming we get the next one right which is, given this franchise's history, the mother of all assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Can we throw BP in? Maybe we'll get JumbalayaJet or 32Green! You're the worst poster ever. Back in the day, there were so many great posters around here and you and all your mod protected friends ran them off. Remember that time when it was Brenda, Smizzy and Max and stuff at that tailgate 10 years ago at the one game. It was cool. You're not. But you're really smart. And gay. You love your boyfriend JiF. You cry to the mods about everything. You were the worst mod ever. But the mods protect you. I have gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 T0mShane finally repped a JiF post and it was this one. I feel sick. Hehe...Poppow neg repped it if it makes you feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You're the worst poster ever. Back in the day, there were so many great posters around here and you and all your mod protected friends ran them off. Remember that time when it was Brenda, Smizzy and Max and stuff at that tailgate 10 years ago at the one game. It was cool. You're not. But you're really smart. And gay. You love your boyfriend JiF. You cry to the mods about everything. You were the worst mod ever. But the mods protect you. I have gas. That hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That hurt. whiny cry baby. going to tell the mods now? you're really smart. lol where's your boyfriend JiF to come to your rescue. lol I farted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j4jets Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 NFC West team familiar with Harvin. Just lost Brian Quick for the year. Might be able to get more than 4th/6th. The only place we can unload Percy on is against the Chiefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IPBanBadPosters Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I understand, but my point is a one-time mistake of around $6M gets lost in the shuffle unless we were up against the cap like when Idzik initially took over. And it's not a minor point that a $15M/year player is only going to hit the cap at less than half that amount in year 1. There's bonus money that gets amortized over the length of the contract, plus a lower year-1 base salary. As a sample: pretend we want someone at $15M/year for 4 years = $60M with $40M guaranteed. $20M signing bonus hits the cap at $5M/year. Then $40M base salaries and roster bonuses later. 2015 base salary $2M = year 1 cap hit is $7M [total paid to date = $22M] 2016 "new money" (base salary and roster bonus) = $11M (all guaranteed) = cap hit $16M [tot paid to date = $33M] 2017 "new money" = $13M (only $7M 3/1/17 roster bonus is guaranteed) = cap hit is $18M [tot paid to date = $46M] 2018 "new money" = $14M = cap hit is $19M [tot paid by end = $60M] And the reality is it will either continue to be a good deal for the team through the end, or they'll restructure (extend) to lower the number further for years 2 or 3, or he'll be cut or traded before the contract's natural end (like Seattle traded Harvin to us). But in none of the scenarios is the $6M additional we'd have had for 2015 going to prevent signing even a $15M/year player and several others, because the year 1 cap number is so much lower. By the time those newer contracts get into the really high numbers, we'll have been rid of older albatrosses like we had with Sanchez, Holmes, Harris. Except in 2016 and beyond it'll be the likes of Ferguson that we get rid of (saving $10M+ on him alone) and maybe Mangold (nearly $9M). Of course this magnitude of savings is only realized if we draft some OLmen who are useful starters. The Jets even did this recently with David Harris on his deal that expires after this season. 4 years $36M (more correctly, 3 years $31M with a 4th year team option at $5M). It was a $9M per year deal on average, but the year 1 cap number was only $4M. This doesn't even count the ability to restructure guys on larger deals who we "know" we want to keep around longer anyway, and have them restructure their existing deal. Team gets immediate team cap relief and the player typically gets additional guaranteed money for a future year he might have otherwise been a cap casualty and got none of it(see Bart Scott, Antonio Cromartie). Or they just convert millions of base salary into new signing bonus so only a percentage of it hits the current year's cap. I don't think the Jets would need to get this fancy shmancy in 2015 no matter what, since they still have SO much space, but it's always an option if there was one more unexpected beast that we just had to have and didn't plan for (or if, in April, we suddenly needed part or all of Harvin's $6M from 2014). Don't get me wrong: it's still bad allocation of spending limits to pay a player so much when he wasn't needed or so much more than his value to the team (CJ, Vick, and maybe now Harvin) but these are individual ~$5M mistakes not individual $10M mistakes. No one of them is going to really hamper future moves. But the fewer of them the better because they do add up. Sorry about the long reply. It's what I do. No need to apologize, it was a cogent, well thought out post - this site needs more of that Look I get what you're saying and understand that in all likelihood we'll still have the flexibility to make any and all moves we'd want to during FA, I just view it as an unnecessary waste to make a move like that at 1-6, unless you planned on keeping him long-term (but like I said if that's the thought process, with the Kerley extension, that means the brain trust sees him as a #1, which I don't). At least signings like Vick and CJ were made when we were 0-0; at 1-6 it just reeked of desperation and a panic move... no way in hell Thomas or Bryant come here anyway Again, this is why I said in order to land one of them, we'd need to overpay. What I'd do is covertly reach out to their agents behind the scenes and guarantee them that if they sign with the Jets, we'll beat any offer they get, including guaranteed money. With all the cap space we'll have, we're in a position to give one of these guys a Megatron type contract that their current teams won't be able to match due to cap constraints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 My thread spawned three essays from Sperm. Clearly it had more value than was originally perceived. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 My thread spawned three essays from Sperm. Clearly it had more value than was originally perceived. You're welcome. I thought you were traded to JI earlier in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I thought you were traded to JI earlier in this thread Scout.com overturned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidelioJet Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 If we can pull something like this off, then you absolutely do it. The trade was inexplicably stupid from the get-go. We're 1-7 and should've been sellers, not buyers. It was a pure panic move from a GM in job preservation mode. The money we're paying Harvin is money we now can't roll over to sign a true #1 like Demaryius or Dez next year. Agreed, terrible move -- but I don't buy that it was Idzik. That, PR only, move was all Woody. Sacrificing cap, picks and talent for press is straight out of his playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 we need to get rid of this guy immediately http://youtu.be/APDSnAGf4wA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 counting kick returns, punt returns, passing and rushing offense, the jets team moved the ball 497 yards harvin was responsible for 225 yards lets unload percy harvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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