Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 All the tears that have been shed on the board lately had me curious as to how many QB's drafter 1st overall have actually won a SB. Here's the list of SB winning QB's: Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr -- 200 overallSuper Bowl 2. Bart Starr -- " "Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath -- 12th overall NFL (1st in AFL)Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson -- 5th overallSuper Bowl 5. John Unitas -- 102 overallSuper Bowl 6. Roger Staubach -- 129th overallSuper Bowl 7. Bob Griese-- 4th overallSuper Bowl 8. Bob Griese -- " "Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 11. Ken Stabler -- 52nd overallSuper Bowl 12. Roger Staubach -- 129th overallSuper Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 16. Joe Montana -- 82 overallSuper Bowl 17. Joe Theismann -- 99 overallSuper Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett -- 1st overallSuper Bowl 19. Joe Montana -- 82 overallSuper Bowl 20. Jim McMahon -- 5 overallSuper Bowl 22. Doug Williams -- 17 overallSuper Bowl 23. Joe Montana -- 82 overallSuper Bowl 24. Joe Montana -- 82 overallSuper Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler -- 59 overallSuper Bowl 26. Mark Rypien -- 146 overallSuper Bowl 27. Troy Aikman -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 28. Troy Aikman -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 29. Steve Young -- USFLSuper Bowl 30. Troy Aikman -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 31. Brett Favre -- 33 overallSuper Bowl 32. John Elway -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 33. John Elway -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 34. Kurt Warner -- UndraftedSuper Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer -- 6 overallSuper Bowl 36. Tom Brady -- 199 overallSuper Bowl 37. Brad Johnson -- 227 overallSuper Bowl 38. Tom Brady -- 199 overallSuper Bowl 39. Tom Brady -- 199 overallSuper Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger -- 11 overallSuper Bowl 41. Peyton Manning -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 42. Eli Manning -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger -- 11 overallSuper Bowl 44: Drew Brees -- 32 overallSuper Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers -- 24 overallSuper Bowl 46: Eli Manning -- 1 overallSuper Bowl 47: Joe Flacco -- 16 overallSuper Bowl 48: Russell Wilson -- 75 overall so six # 1 overall QB's won 14 Superbowls accounting for 29% of all SB wins. 71% of the time it's someone drafter later, and in many cases much later. Unless you think Mariota turns out to be Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Troy Aikman, John Elway, or 1 of the Manning brothers, history says it won't make a difference. In fact 20 QB's have been taken # 1 overall and 14 of them have either tanked, or had very mild playoff success -- none have the playoff resume of Mark Sanchez for example. As far as I've heard Mariota is nowhere near the prospect as many of the QB's taken first. Maybe... just maybe... some of you are dare I say, overreacting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 In a way, it doesn't matter where we pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 In a way, it doesn't matter where we pick When you have no can't miss qbs you may be right. I'd rather draft a pro bowl tackle than a bust qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A dozen superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Considering how many good QBs have come and go in this league without getting taken #1, and considering how many #1 overall picks went to crappy teams who were trapped in their crappiness before the advent of free agency, I'd stay that's a pretty high number. Even with all that, 25% of all superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Multiple-ring winners doesn't at all lessen the impact. Taking a QB #1 - even taking a great QB (or potentially great QB) #1 - guarantees nothing. But it certainly helps. And you're more likely to find one there than with the #1 pick in any other round, and I'd wager more than any other individual draft slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Jets are too dumb to hit on a 1st round QB but just dumb enough to have Geno turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thshadow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thanks for the factual post. I think we'd all have liked to have the #1 pick and have drafted Mariota. But we won't have the #1 pick, and Mariota isn't Luck or Peyton or Elway. There are lots of years when the best QB of the class isn't very good, and it remains to be seen how good Mariota ends up. Oh well, we're not getting him, just like 30 other teams. We'll probably still be predicating a super bowl in the preseason next year, just like 32 other teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 if we end up picking in the top 10 I say we just forfeit the pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnleyJet Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A desperate attempt to make your fellow posters feel better, after just blowing our future (again) with yet another meaningless late season Win. This team carnt even tank properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A desperate attempt to make your fellow posters feel better, after just blowing our future (again) with yet another meaningless late season Win. This team carnt even tank properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A dozen superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Considering how many good QBs have come and go in this league without getting taken #1, and considering how many #1 overall picks went to crappy teams who were trapped in their crappiness before the advent of free agency, I'd stay that's a pretty high number. Even with all that, 25% of all superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Multiple-ring winners doesn't at all lessen the impact. Taking a QB #1 - even taking a great QB (or potentially great QB) #1 - guarantees nothing. But it certainly helps. And you're more likely to find one there than with the #1 pick in any other round, and I'd wager more than any other individual draft slot. ya op unintentionally proved the opposite of his premise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ya op unintentionally proved the opposite of his premise I forgot to include that there have only been 20 such QBs since SB1, starting with Bradshaw in '70. Several are still playing but have only been the league a short time (not yet a full career to look back upon and judge), and a handful of them still have a realistic chance of adding to those 12 rings before they retire, from Peyton to Luck. And ring or no, most of those #1 pick QBs were of the multi pro bowl variety (puncher's chance if the rest of the team is decent enough). Holy crap we needed to get the #1 pick to get a QB! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southparkcpa Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 1- Those teams all had a well balanced team, defense, offense and were coached well. 2- Elway whiffed until he had a terrific running game to help Until we have a balanced team, decent talent all around like 2010, we could have Joe Montana, it wont matter. Joe Flacco, if drafted by the JETS in or around 2009 would be a below average QB. Rex would have never attended meetings, we'd give him Stephen Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southparkcpa Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thanks for the factual post. I think we'd all have liked to have the #1 pick and have drafted Mariota. But we won't have the #1 pick, and Mariota isn't Luck or Peyton or Elway. There are lots of years when the best QB of the class isn't very good, and it remains to be seen how good Mariota ends up. Oh well, we're not getting him, just like 30 other teams. We'll probably still be predicating a super bowl in the preseason next year, just like 32 other teams. Somehow I dont see anyone predicting a SB for the JETS. Not even REX would be that stupid. Well, maybe REX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 30% chance of success of Super Bowl champ quarteback on something so unpredictable is actually pretty good odds. You would really have to convince me as to why any rationally minded general manager wouldn't gamble on 1 out of 3 odds there. I would make that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetFreak89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I came to this post to make me feel slightly better about yesterday and in return just got sh*t on again for losing the spot to the #1 QB......**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 1- Those teams all had a well balanced team, defense, offense and were coached well. No, not all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Who knew that Sperm's long windedness would eventually be so handy? And just at the right time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jets723 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Who knew that Sperm's long windedness would eventually be so handy? And just at the right time too. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerryK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Megatron does *way* more for the Lions than Stafford does. Even when he has just a few receptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Megatron does *way* more for the Lions than Stafford does. Even when he has just a few receptions. Stafford >>>>>> Sanchez (2009 draft). Just like Matt Ryan >>>>>>> Vernon Gholston (2008 draft). A top pick may not guarantee you a championship-caliber QB, but odds are the earlier you pick a QB, the better your odds of at least getting a decent one you can build around. And in our history, winning these meaningless late season games have led to disaster. At the very least, having a top pick means you have a nice opportunity to trade down for some solid picks. If a Mariota, Amari Cooper, or another top prospect were on the board and we didn't want to pull the trigger, there would have been several interested teams in moving up. Not being able to pick in the top 5 now moves us out of the territory to take either of those guys OR trade down for anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bergenjets Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Take Jim Plunkett off the list. He was a bust for NE and just a journeyman QB with Geno-like stats, that the Pats wasted a #1 pick on.. Came around much later in his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southparkcpa Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 No, not all of them. Well, if an outlier exists, thats not an NFL model of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This thread reminds me of that saying "let them score so we can get the ball back". It makes about that much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 This thread reminds me of that saying "let them score so we can get the ball back". It makes about that much sense. Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever. Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 ya op unintentionally proved the opposite of his premise I very intentionally proved that the whining is unjustified. Unless again you think Mariota will be Elway or Manning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever. Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck. Dude you have 48 observations of data that says a #1 drafted quarteback creates 3:1 odds alone for winning a Super Bowl irregardless of ANY OTHER VARIABLE and you think that it's not worth having the first round pick? What other high quality bet could a general manager wish to make? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Has anyone brought up the fact the Jets were never picking #1 overall or....????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I very intentionally proved that the whining is unjustified. Unless again you think Mariota will be Elway or Manning. that's the thing, no one does. but odds are better you get The Guy with a high pick than a low one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Dude you have 48 observations of data that says a #1 drafted quarteback creates 3:1 odds alone for winning a Super Bowl irregardless of ANY OTHER VARIABLE and you think that it's not worth having the first round pick? What other high quality bet could a general manager wish to make? a) irregardless is not a word. b ) I told you 20 times a QB has been taken #1 overall and 14 times they've busted or had mild playoff success. Nowhere did I claim I wouldn't take Mariota or that I didn't want the # 1 pick. All I did was show you SB winning QB's and their draft positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 that's the thing, no one does. but odds are better you get The Guy with a high pick than a low one. did you look at the list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 a) irregardless is not a word. b ) I told you 20 times a QB has been taken #1 overall and 14 times they've busted or had mild playoff success. Nowhere did I claim I wouldn't take Mariota or that I didn't want the # 1 pick. All I did was show you SB winning QB's and their draft positions. Ew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ew feeling feisty today.. let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 did you look at the list? Yes. There is a highest statistical chance of finding s good qb in the first thsn sny other round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Take Jim Plunkett off the list. He was a bust for NE and just a journeyman QB with Geno-like stats, that the Pats wasted a #1 pick on.. Came around much later in his career. I was thinking the same thing. OTOH, Steve Young went #1 overall in the USFL supplemental that included Reggie White, Gary Zimmerman, and Gary Clark. I'm pretty sure that he would have gone ahead of Irving Fryar and Dean Steinkuhler. Namath got a record contract to play in the AFL. I think the league wars contributed to his draft position. That was a pretty strong draft, Butkus, Sayers, Mike Curtis. I bet the Giants wish they had a do-over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever. Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck. History doesn't show that. Maybe a good number of them don't win Super Bowls, or don't live up to their draft position, but most of them are good QBs. The Tim Couches and JaMarcus Russells are the outliers, not the norm. You've got some greats, and then you have the Bledsoes and Palmers - all better than the Jets have had in a long time. And in most cases, the best QB is the first QB off the board. I'm not whining about the pick, but your argument doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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