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QB drafted 1st overall is not the savior it's made out to be


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All the tears that have been shed on the board lately had me curious as to how many QB's drafter 1st overall have actually won a SB.

 

 

 

Here's the list of SB winning QB's:

 

 

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr -- 200 overall
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr -- "             "
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath -- 12th overall NFL (1st in AFL)
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson -- 5th overall
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas -- 102 overall
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach -- 129th overall
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese-- 4th overall
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese -- "           "
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler -- 52nd overall
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach -- 129th overall
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana -- 82 overall
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann -- 99 overall
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett -- 1st overall
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana -- 82 overall
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon  -- 5 overall
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams -- 17 overall
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana -- 82 overall
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana -- 82 overall
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler -- 59 overall
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien -- 146 overall
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young -- USFL
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre -- 33 overall
Super Bowl 32. John Elway -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 33. John Elway -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner -- Undrafted
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer -- 6 overall
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady -- 199 overall
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson -- 227 overall
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady -- 199 overall
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady -- 199 overall
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger -- 11 overall
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger -- 11 overall
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees -- 32 overall
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers -- 24 overall
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning -- 1 overall
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco -- 16 overall
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson -- 75 overall

 

 

so six # 1 overall QB's won 14 Superbowls accounting for 29% of all SB wins.

 

71% of the time it's someone drafter later, and in many cases much later.

 

Unless you think Mariota turns out to be Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Troy Aikman, John Elway, or 1 of the Manning brothers, history says it won't make a difference.

 

In fact 20 QB's have been taken # 1 overall and 14 of them have either tanked, or had very mild playoff success -- none have the playoff resume of Mark Sanchez for example.

 

As far as I've heard Mariota is nowhere near the prospect as many of the QB's taken first.  Maybe... just maybe... some of you are dare I say, overreacting?

 

 

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A dozen superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Considering how many good QBs have come and go in this league without getting taken #1, and considering how many #1 overall picks went to crappy teams who were trapped in their crappiness before the advent of free agency, I'd stay that's a pretty high number. Even with all that, 25% of all superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Multiple-ring winners doesn't at all lessen the impact.

 

Taking a QB #1 - even taking a great QB (or potentially great QB) #1 - guarantees nothing. But it certainly helps. And you're more likely to find one there than with the #1 pick in any other round, and I'd wager more than any other individual draft slot.

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Thanks for the factual post.

 

I think we'd all have liked to have the #1 pick and have drafted Mariota.  But we won't have the #1 pick, and Mariota isn't Luck or Peyton or Elway.  There are lots of years when the best QB of the class isn't very good, and it remains to be seen how good Mariota ends up.

 

Oh well, we're not getting him, just like 30 other teams.  We'll probably still be predicating a super bowl in the preseason next year, just like 32 other teams.

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A dozen superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Considering how many good QBs have come and go in this league without getting taken #1, and considering how many #1 overall picks went to crappy teams who were trapped in their crappiness before the advent of free agency, I'd stay that's a pretty high number. Even with all that, 25% of all superbowls were won with a QB picked #1 overall. Multiple-ring winners doesn't at all lessen the impact.

 

Taking a QB #1 - even taking a great QB (or potentially great QB) #1 - guarantees nothing. But it certainly helps. And you're more likely to find one there than with the #1 pick in any other round, and I'd wager more than any other individual draft slot.

 

ya op unintentionally proved the opposite of his premise

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ya op unintentionally proved the opposite of his premise

I forgot to include that there have only been 20 such QBs since SB1, starting with Bradshaw in '70. Several are still playing but have only been the league a short time (not yet a full career to look back upon and judge), and a handful of them still have a realistic chance of adding to those 12 rings before they retire, from Peyton to Luck.

And ring or no, most of those #1 pick QBs were of the multi pro bowl variety (puncher's chance if the rest of the team is decent enough).

Holy crap we needed to get the #1 pick to get a QB! Lol.

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1- Those teams all had a well balanced team, defense, offense and were coached well.

 

2-  Elway whiffed until he had a terrific running game to help

 

Until we have a balanced team, decent talent all around like 2010, we could have Joe Montana, it wont matter.

 

 

Joe Flacco, if drafted by the JETS in or around 2009 would be a below average QB.  

 

Rex would have never attended meetings, we'd give him Stephen Hill.

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Thanks for the factual post.

 

I think we'd all have liked to have the #1 pick and have drafted Mariota.  But we won't have the #1 pick, and Mariota isn't Luck or Peyton or Elway.  There are lots of years when the best QB of the class isn't very good, and it remains to be seen how good Mariota ends up.

 

Oh well, we're not getting him, just like 30 other teams.  We'll probably still be predicating a super bowl in the preseason next year, just like 32 other teams.

Somehow I dont see anyone predicting a SB for the JETS. Not even REX would be that stupid. Well, maybe REX.

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Megatron does *way* more for the Lions than Stafford does.  Even when he has just a few receptions.

 

Stafford >>>>>> Sanchez (2009 draft).  Just like Matt Ryan >>>>>>> Vernon Gholston (2008 draft).  A top pick may not guarantee you a championship-caliber QB, but odds are the earlier you pick a QB, the better your odds of at least getting a decent one you can build around.  And in our history, winning these meaningless late season games have led to disaster.

 

At the very least, having a top pick means you have a nice opportunity to trade down for some solid picks.  If a Mariota, Amari Cooper, or another top prospect were on the board and we didn't want to pull the trigger, there would have been several interested teams in moving up.  Not being able to pick in the top 5 now moves us out of the territory to take either of those guys OR trade down for anything of significance.

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This thread reminds me of that saying "let them score so we can get the ball back". It makes about that much sense.

 

Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever.

 

Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck.

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Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever.

Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck.

Dude you have 48 observations of data that says a #1 drafted quarteback creates 3:1 odds alone for winning a Super Bowl irregardless of ANY OTHER VARIABLE and you think that it's not worth having the first round pick? What other high quality bet could a general manager wish to make?
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Dude you have 48 observations of data that says a #1 drafted quarteback creates 3:1 odds alone for winning a Super Bowl irregardless of ANY OTHER VARIABLE and you think that it's not worth having the first round pick? What other high quality bet could a general manager wish to make?

 

a) irregardless is not a word.

 

b ) I told you 20 times a QB has been taken #1 overall and 14 times they've busted or had mild playoff success.  Nowhere did I claim I wouldn't take Mariota or that I didn't want the # 1 pick.  All I did was show you SB winning QB's and their draft positions.

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a) irregardless is not a word.

b ) I told you 20 times a QB has been taken #1 overall and 14 times they've busted or had mild playoff success. Nowhere did I claim I wouldn't take Mariota or that I didn't want the # 1 pick. All I did was show you SB winning QB's and their draft positions.

Ew
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Take Jim Plunkett off the list. He was a bust for NE and just a journeyman QB with Geno-like stats, that the Pats wasted a #1 pick on.. Came around much later in his career.

 

I was thinking the same thing.  OTOH, Steve Young went #1 overall in the USFL supplemental that included Reggie White, Gary Zimmerman, and Gary Clark.   I'm pretty sure that he would have gone ahead of Irving Fryar and Dean Steinkuhler.  Namath got a record contract to play in the AFL.  I think the league wars contributed to his draft position.  That was a pretty strong draft, Butkus, Sayers, Mike Curtis.  I bet the Giants wish they had a do-over.

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Perhaps we should start another thread where grown men weep for draft picks and tell fairytales about Mariota becoming the bestest QB ever.

 

Fact of the matter is history shows more QB's bust than not when taken at # 1 and there's nothing I've heard that makes me think MM is Andrew Luck.

 

History doesn't show that. Maybe a good number of them don't win Super Bowls, or don't live up to their draft position, but most of them are good QBs. The Tim Couches and JaMarcus Russells are the outliers, not the norm. You've got some greats, and then you have the Bledsoes and Palmers - all better than the Jets have had in a long time. And in most cases, the best QB is the first QB off the board. 

 

I'm not whining about the pick, but your argument doesn't work. 

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