jgb Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Come on slats. If the officials did their job and measured the footballs with a guage, like they are suppose to do, rather than just giving them the "squeeze test", none of this ever would have happened. This is a league issue, not a Pats issue. I agree league shares responsibility because its punishments do not fit the crime. Any HC on Earth would take a superbowl ring for a fine and loss of one draft pick. Winning the big one sets you up for life. I don't know what the answer is but I can see the logic in a HC cutting every corner possible when the punishment is expected to be low. It's simple economics. PS: It's sad that the league needs a league-employeed ball manager because of actions like this. What's next? League-employed HVAC manager to ensure Pats don't set visiting locker room at 108 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Didn't see if this was already posted: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/warren-sharp/stats-show-the-new-englan_b_6555802.html Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof After 2006 Rule Change Proposed by Tom Brady Posted: 01/27/2015 12:18 pm EST Updated: 01/27/2015 1:59 pm EST Share779 Tweet84 Comment132 This post first appeared at www.sharpfootballanalysis.com While speculation exists that "Deflate Gate" was a one time occurrence, data I introduced last week indicated that the phenomena MAY have been an ongoing, long standing issue for the New England Patriots. Today, that possibility looks as clear as day. Initially, looking at weather data, I noticed the Patriots performed extremely well in the rain, much more so than they were projected. I followed that up by looking at the fumble data, which showed regardless of weather or site, the Patriots prevention of fumbles was nearly impossible. Ironically, both studies saw the same exact starting point: 2007 was the first season where things really changed for the Patriots. Something started in 2007 which is still on-going today. I wanted to compare the New England Patriots fumble rate from 2000, when HC Bill Belichick first arrived in New England, to the rest of the NFL. Clearly, one thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given they play at least 8+ games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis, grabbed only regular season games, and defined plays as pass attempts+rushes+times sacked. The below results also look only at total fumbles, not just fumbles which are lost. This brought us to the ability to capture touches per fumble. To really confirm something was dramatically different in New England, starting in 2007 through present, I compared the 2000-06 time period (when Bill Belichick was their head coach and they won all of their Super Bowls) to the 2007-2014 time period. The beauty of data is the results speak for themselves: The data is jaw dropping, and this visual perfectly depicts what happened. From a more technical perspective, John Candido, a Data Scientist at ZestFinance who is a colleague of mine over at the NFLproject.com website and was also involved in the development of this research, comments: Based on the assumption that plays per fumble follow a normal distribution, you'd expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten since 2007 once in 5842 instances. Which in layman's terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0001711874 probability to win. In other words, it's very unlikely that results this abnormal are only due to the endogenous nature of the game. Many of the arguments giving the Patriots the benefit of the doubt are evaporating. While this data does not prove they deflated footballs starting in 2007, we know they were interested in obtaining that ability in 2006. (This is something I found out AFTER I performed the first two analyses, both of which independently found that something changed starting in 2007.) In 2006, Tom Brady (and Peyton Manning) lobbied in favor of changing a NFL rule, and as a result, the NFL agreed to change policies. Brady wanted the NFL to let EVERY team provide its OWN footballs to use on offense, even when that team was playing on the road. Prior to that year, the HOME team provided ALL the footballs, meaning the home quarterback selected the footballs the ROAD quarterback would play with on offense. Brady's quote at the time, when pushing for the change was: "The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different. Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in." Obviously this information, when combined with the data above, is exceedingly compelling. Not only can you visually see the change when aggregating the data into periods of 2000-06 and 2007-14, you can clearly see how it occurs on the following two graphs. The data is the same, but details are added in the second graph to provide additional information and context: Once again, a key takeaway is deadly obvious: prior to 2007 the Patriots were RIGHT IN LINE with the league averages across the other non-dome teams. When you look team by team, they literally are in the middle of the pack for most seasons, as the histogram in the very first graphic at the top of this article shows. But starting in 2007, all similarities totally vanish. The statistical "jump" the Patriots make in the 2006 offseason, from one fumble every 39 plays to one fumble every 76 plays is nothing short of remarkable. Their trendline over this period is not even close to that of the rest of the NFL. The 2013 season is an oddity in that the Patriots were actually slightly worse than the rest of the NFL. Looking at that season, its apparent the reason: of the Patriots 23 fumbles that season, 6 (over 25 percent) occurred in a Sunday night game vs the Broncos played in 22 degree weather, with 22 mph winds and a wind chill of 6 degrees. Cold conditions of this nature absolutely cause more fumbles than usual. They fumbled a TOTAL of 5 times in 11 of their 16 games in 2013 (69 percent of their total games), so it truly was this week 12 "antarctic" game (and a week 17 game vs the Bills which saw 4 fumbles) which really put the Patriots fumble rates for 2013 out of sync. This is exactly why looking at small sample sets, such as single seasons, is not the preferred manner to investigate this analysis. Why are fumbles so important? Because as Bill Belichick knows, perhaps more so than most NFL coaches due to his understanding of the game -- turnovers usually control game outcomes. Since 2000, teams who won the turnover battle won 79 percent of their games, regardless of ANY other statistic. A 12-5 record equates to 75 percent wins, so its clear how vital turnovers are in the minds of intelligent coaches. And as far as turnovers are concerned, the number one concern for a team with a quarterback as skilled and proficient as Tom Brady is not interceptions (because there won't be many), its fumbles. There are many arguments which have been raised in favor of why the Patriots don't fumble as often as other teams. Many of them are simply factually incorrect. If it was coaching, former players should be able to tell us that Bill Belichick suddenly and drastically changed the way he instructed players to carry the football in the 2006 offseason. But the data shows that if mysterious trade secret was delivered, the players forgot about it when they left New England, as their individual fumble rates became drastically worse when playing for other NFL teams. The bottom line is, something happened in New England. It happened just before the 2007 season, and it completely changed this team. While NFL teams apparently are complaining to the league that they felt the Patriots played with deflated footballs during the 2014 season and postseason, all investigations into those allegations would be wise to reference my research herein, and begin the investigation in the 2006. That was when Tom Brady was able to persuade the NFL to change its rules to allow him (and other quarterbacks) to provide their own footballs for all road games. I will reiterate, this analysis cannot say it was, undoubtedly, illegal football deflation which caused the data abnormalities. But it does conclude that something absolutely changed, and it was not the result of simple random fluctuation. __________________________ Because I was asked so often for the data that I used in the first analysis, as a courtesy, I am going to link an excel file with all the summary data used to create the graphics shown above. Support Data Warren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com is an industry pioneer at the forefront of incorporating advanced analytics and metrics into football analysis. A licensed Professional Engineer by trade, Warren applies the same critical thought process and problem solving techniques into his passion, football. After spending years constructing, testing and perfecting computer models written to understand the critical elements to win NFL football games, Warren's quantitative analytics are used in private consulting work, and elements of which are publicly shared onsharpfootballanalysis.com. To contact Warren, please email sharp@sharpfootballanalysis.com or send a direct message on Twitter to @SharpFootball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afosomf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If this is true then WTF! BOSTON — Referees approved the footballs used by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game, even though they were under the NFL’s allowable PSI prior to the game, CBS Boston reports. According to CBS Boston, sources said referees approved 12 game footballs prior to the game, and the under inflated footballs were perhaps not inspected properly. From CBS Boston reporter: One thing that has been reported this last week, as we’ve been learning about how footballs are treated before a game is that before every game, a referee measured with a pressure gauge each football to see if the pressure in each one is between 12.5 and 13.5 PSI. But that apparently isn’t always the case. As a matter of fact, from what I’ve been told, many times the refs don’t test the pressure of each ball with a gauge at all. Sometimes refs hold the ball, squeeze it, briefly inspect it, then sign off on it. Next ball. It’s never been a problem before. This is apparently a well known fact in the NFL. Now according to my sources, The Patriots turned in their footballs to the ref at a pressure just below the allowable PSI. If it’s a situation where the refs DID use a gauge, the refs would see the balls were under inflated, and inflate them to the proper size. But in this case, the balls were approved and given back to the Patriots under-inflated. Thus, the under-inflated balls. The Patriots, according to my sources, played with league approved deflated balls. This is just the latest turn in the bizarre saga of Deflate-gate. On Monday, the NFL reportedly interviewed a locker-room attendant who may have had contact with the footballs after they were handled by the refs. http://q13fox.com/2015/01/27/report-under-inflated-balls-were-approved-by-refs-prior-to-afc-championship-game/ If this story is true..makes no sense Specially if ravens tipped the colts about deflated footballs, makes no sense that refs would just use touch and feel test rather than gauge. This looks to me like a made up story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Come on slats. If the officials did their job and measured the footballs with a guage, like they are suppose to do, rather than just giving them the "squeeze test", none of this ever would have happened. This is a league issue, not a Pats issue. There's no proof that the Patriots provided under inflated footballs to the refs for inspection. There is, however, proof that the Pats played the first half of the AFC Championship Game with under inflated footballs. You can bob, weave, and deny all you want, but this is very obviously a Pats issue. Doesn't help your case that your favorite franchise is a repeat offender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If this story is true..makes no sense Specially if ravens tipped the colts about deflated footballs, makes no sense that refs would just use touch and feel test rather than gauge. This looks to me like a made up story. I believe it. Until the Pats pulled this crap--I think they have a whole department designed to look for ways to cheat--the NFL never thought this would ever become a thing. It's so brazen and ridiculous. Next they will be spiking drinking water in opponent's locker room and Pat's fans will be saying it's a league issue because the league doesn't fly in bottled water for every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At the very least, procedures will be changed and the Pats fumble rate will come back to the rest of the league next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jets1958 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At the very least, procedures will be changed and the Pats fumble rate will come back to the rest of the league next year. And wouldn't that be interesting evidence. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchmemory Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If this story is true..makes no sense Specially if ravens tipped the colts about deflated footballs, makes no sense that refs would just use touch and feel test rather than gauge. This looks to me like a made up story. I agree. There is just something wrong with the whole picture. If I'm running the Colts, I get a gauge out on the Pats' first possession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Roger Goodell is doing a terrific job as nfl commissioner. Just so you know I blame him more than the Cheatriots. I really don;t think Kraft and Bellicheat could help themselves. Guys are scumbags. Goodell is supposed to police the league. He polices 92%, the part not named New England. We need Steven Seagal to come in and kick some"Above the Law" type ass. "STEVEN SEAGAL FOR NFL COMMISSIONER!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberjet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Come on slats. If the officials did their job and measured the footballs with a guage, like they are suppose to do, rather than just giving them the "squeeze test", none of this ever would have happened. This is a league issue, not a Pats issue. True - the refs are in trouble - however if the Pats adhered to the rules, ie. presented balls with 12.5 psi and not 10.5 psi then this wouldn't be an issue. It's all so obvious what the Pats did /are doing- Brady: "I go by feel don't pay attention to pressure". BB: "Never discuss pressure". Kraft: " We play by the rules" (ie., we present balls to the ref that were approved). The only statement that is suspect is I believe that BB or someone said that they present balls with 12.5 psi - which is now a lie and probably why they are pushing the weather theory to put doubt into the fact that the balls were presented to the refs less than ideal. Bottom line is they have no direct evidence of deflated balls. The refs approved them therefore they are legit and the Pats are cleared of wrongdoing. However there is circumstantial evidence that the balls were less than ideal because they were 10.5 at halftime and as long as you reject the weather theory the Pats should be guilty by not playing by the rules and the ref should be suspended for not doing his job correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It'll be pretty awesome when the Pats fumble six times in the Super Bowl. Every Brady pass that sails over the receiver's head and outstretched arms will be attributed to the bigger football and the smaller (in comparison) hands of the guy throwing. One other thing nobody has taken into consideration because (of course) Tom Brady is perhaps the greatest football player to ever don a set of shoulder pads and a helmut is the effect it may have on Brady mentally. We've all seen when Tommy Boy gets all flustered and makes that spoiled babyish face. Once it gets into his head that there's a big difference between throwing a ball at 13.5 PSI then it is the way that he prefers it, then and there everything just may be changing Jets fans. The big question though is this: Will the league be cracking down starting Sunday or will they wait until the summer to institute the "new, stricter rules" that are supposed to be coming. Don't be surprised if they let it go on the way it's gone on now for the past 8 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Jet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 NFL was on the Pats prior to the game. No way the refs didn't properly inspect those balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 NFL was on the Pats prior to the game. No way the refs didn't properly inspect those balls This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Every Brady pass that sails over the receiver's head and outstretched arms will be attributed to the bigger football and the smaller (in comparison) hands of the guy throwing. One other thing nobody has taken into consideration because (of course) Tom Brady is perhaps the greatest football player to ever don a set of shoulder pads and a helmut is the effect it may have on Brady mentally. We've all seen when Tommy Boy gets all flustered and makes that spoiled babyish face. Once it gets into his head that there's a big difference between throwing a ball at 13.5 PSI then it is the way that he prefers it, then and there everything just may be changing Jets fans. The big question though is this: Will the league be cracking down starting Sunday or will they wait until the summer to institute the "new, stricter rules" that are supposed to be coming. Don't be surprised if they let it go on the way it's gone on now for the past 8 years... They will change nothing until next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What about the minor issue of the fact that the refs are already on record as saying the followed the process of inspection ?...why the change in story now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetrider Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How do you know the Pats ball pressure meter was properly calibrated? How many people each year get off from speeding tickets because the radar units were not accurate? Why have game officials if they are negligent in their job responsibilities, Kraft is correct, the NFL owes the Pats a huge apology. Oh, of course ... gauges, thermometers, barometers, gravitational pull, lunar forces, astral alignments, father, son, and holy ghost ... everything misbehaves for Pats balls only. By your logic, if a cop stops a drunk driver who gets his act together for the few minutes they interact and the fooled cop returns his license and let's him drive off and cause a fatal crash, it's the cop's fault not the drunk driver's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Jet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We know what the penalty for ball tampering is. But what is the penalty for cheating a 2nd time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 True - the refs are in trouble - however if the Pats adhered to the rules, ie. presented balls with 12.5 psi and not 10.5 psi then this wouldn't be an issue. Not true at all. There is no NFL rule that states each team is responsible for "presenting" properly inflated balls to the offcials. Hell, they can present footballs with 6PSI to the offcials. The league rule is that games are to be played with properly inflated footballs, and it is the direct resposibilty of the offcials to ensure that happens. Again, this is a league/offcials problem, and not the Pats problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've seen a lot of theories that the NFL needs the Seahawks to win to avoid the embarrassment of another tainted title...I think the opposite, Goodell needs the Pats to win to " validate " they didn't cheat ...I expect the Pats to get any and every call sunday ....Goodell doesn't give a f##k about the integrity of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rillo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Refs, locker room attendants and the NFL were all in on the deflated football for the Pats...why even play the games or have a season? Just give them the trophies. Dam Pats* u scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliforniaJet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Man these Pats* trolls have been non stop with damage control, love it!! Still need a lot of work trolls, everyone outside of Boston* thinks you cheated. You have a lot of work to do, but im enjoying every posts. I know you guys can get even more creative finding new things to blame for the balls being tampered with, come on guys get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Jet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Balls were inspected properly. Colts balls were fine. 11 Of 12 pats ball were under inflated. Ignorance is not an excuse. Head coach is responsible for the actions of the team, period. Second time caught cheating. We wait for,the penalty. To be announced after the game, so the NFL protects the money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetrider Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not true at all. There is no NFL rule that states each team is responsible for "presenting" properly inflated balls to the offcials. Hell, they can present footballs with 6PSI to the offcials. The league rule is that games are to be played with properly inflated footballs, and it is the direct resposibilty of the offcials to ensure that happens. Again, this is a league/offcials problem, and not the Pats problem. You're right, the league should drop the rule that Peyton and Brady petitioned for and have officials provide all game balls and remove the teams from the equation altogether. Game balls should be embossed and numbered so cheaters like the Pats can't slip in their special "backup" balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not true at all. There is no NFL rule that states each team is responsible for "presenting" properly inflated balls to the offcials. Hell, they can present footballs with 6PSI to the offcials. The league rule is that games are to be played with properly inflated footballs, and it is the direct resposibilty of the offcials to ensure that happens. Again, this is a league/offcials problem, and not the Pats problem. You can skip the gym today, Tx, these mental gymnastics are more than enough exercise for one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawn306 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What about the minor issue of the fact that the refs are already on record as saying the followed the process of inspection ?...why the change in story now ? Cause Goodell got to them and told them to change their story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetrider Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not true at all. There is no NFL rule that states each team is responsible for "presenting" properly inflated balls to the offcials. Hell, they can present footballs with 6PSI to the offcials. The league rule is that games are to be played with properly inflated footballs, and it is the direct resposibilty of the offcials to ensure that happens. Again, this is a league/offcials problem, and not the Pats problem. But Brady already told the world how they meticulously prepare game balls to his exact standards (12.5 PSI) and "at that point they're perfect and that's what I expect." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EM31 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Then little whinny-ass teams like the Ravens and Colts shouldn't be making false accusations when they always get their ass kicked by the Patriots. Seriously TX that is like calling the victim of a mugging "whiny-assed" because they report the crime or suggest that they are jealous because they did not think of a career as a mugger first. Some people are just not comfortable being scumbag criminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've seen a lot of theories that the NFL needs the Seahawks to win to avoid the embarrassment of another tainted title...I think the opposite, Goodell needs the Pats to win to " validate " they didn't cheat ...I expect the Pats to get any and every call sunday ....Goodell doesn't give a f##k about the integrity of the game How, exactly, would that remove the taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 When Pats visit Metlife next year I hope the fireidzik.com guys pass out flat footballs in the parking lot to throw onto field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EM31 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Every team is responsible for their footballs BEFORE AND AFTER inspection. The dog must have eaten my homework simply is not going to cut it here no matter how much Pats fans want the world to accept that explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cause Goodell got to them and told them to change their story Yup 100%..,,for the sake of humoring the pats fans on the board ..let's pretend we believe this ridiculous story , shouldn't we expect the ref to be fired today for lying originally ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How, exactly, would that remove the taint? I guess prove that they could win with regulation balls?...maybe I'm reaching I just have a bad feeling the Pats are gonna come out of this winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Jet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 They have to play an even game Sunday. Brady will be all over the place with his throws. They will be smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidelioJet Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cause Goodell got to them and told them to change their story If this is really the way they're going to get out of this and actually have NFL referee's change their story a week and half later (probably because no other excuse was taken seriously) I am honestly done with the NFL.... It's a game I've loved my entire life but I just couldn't watch any game ever again and believe the outcome to be legitimate...It would be a pointless endeavor to waste my time. The more I think about it the more I like the idea anyway - gets me away from the weekly stress of Jet games, saves money on tickets, will make my wife happier and no more going to work hungover every Monday (or exhausted Tuesday mornings from staying up so late on another NFL money grab) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuidoYastrzemski Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 They have to play an even game Sunday. Brady will be all over the place with his throws. They will be smoked Yeah. Brady sucked last week in the second half of the Colts game with "regulation" balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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