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Realistic Offensive Expectations


KRL

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Some people are already "jumping off the cliff" with some of the offensive players
being associated with us (McCown, Spiller).  Picking them apart and doubting what
they could bring to the team.  To them I say, relax!!!  You need to keep your
expectations for our offense in 2015 to a realistic level.  My hopes for the offense
are as follows:

 

- Be in the top 5 rushing.  We were #3 last year and #6 in 2013

 

- Be in the 16-21 range of total offense

 

- Get average QB play from whoever is the starter.  To me that would be:
  * Completion % in the 58-60 range
  * Passing yards a game in the 195-205 range
  * TD's in the 15-17 range
  * INT's in the 9-11 range

 

We have to stop thinking that we are going to elevate to a GB/Rodgers level of offensive
efficiency.  That's not going to happen in one off-season, we need to shoot for realistic
goals

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I think we should continue to save our cap room for a run in 2025...

The reality is that our offense isn't going to be good until we find a QB, signing McCown, drafting someone in the 4th and keeping Geno isn't a good plan imo.. I'm hoping we go after someone with some upside

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I think we should continue to save our cap room for a run in 2025...

The reality is that our offense isn't going to be good until we find a QB, signing McCown, drafting someone in the 4th and keeping Geno isn't a good plan imo.. I'm hoping we go after someone with some upside

I read that the Jets are obliged to use a lot of their cap space this year.  Not sure of the exact number but it is a lot.

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Some people are already "jumping off the cliff" with some of the offensive players

being associated with us (McCown, Spiller).  Picking them apart and doubting what

they could bring to the team.  To them I say, relax!!!  You need to keep your

expectations for our offense in 2015 to a realistic level.  My hopes for the offense

are as follows:

 

- Be in the top 5 rushing.  We were #3 last year and #6 in 2013

 

- Be in the 16-21 range of total offense

 

- Get average QB play from whoever is the starter.  To me that would be:

  * Completion % in the 58-60 range

  * Passing yards a game in the 195-205 range

  * TD's in the 15-17 range

  * INT's in the 9-11 range

 

We have to stop thinking that we are going to elevate to a GB/Rodgers level of offensive

efficiency.  That's not going to happen in one off-season, we need to shoot for realistic

goals

Your QB stats are basically "stop gap" stats. 

 

So, what you're telling me is that in the "generation of the quarterback/passing offense" its okay, or serviceable for your QB to produce 60% completion, 17 TD's, 11 INT's and 205 yards per game? 

Geno Smith

59.7%

13TD's

13 INT's 

180 yards per game

 

You give Geno Smith .3% more, give him 4 more TD's, remove 2 INT's and give him 20 more yards per game and the Jets win about 2 more games. 

 

Why? Because though the Jets are top 3 in rushing, they're 20th in rushing touchdowns. 

Same thing last year. The Jets were 6th in rushing, 20th again in rushing touchdowns. 

 

The way that these rankings are created can be deceiving at times. The Jets had the 6th best defense in the league by rankings, but ranked 24th in points allowed. How the hell are you ranked 6th best defense when pretty much every team can score on you? This is why I like Bowles. Arizona was the 24th ranked defense in the league, but 5th in points allowed, which is what really matters. 

I could care less how many yards you gain, its about points. The Jets dont score points with that top 3 rushing attack and their top 10 defense is in the bottom 10 in points allowed, which means that if our QB ends up looking like the stats that you're willing to accept then this team will win 6 to 7 games instead of 4. 

 

Aren't we tired of stop gap JAG's at QB? Ryan Fitzpatrick could give us those exact numbers, actually, he could do slightly better. Look at his stats this year for the Texans and they went 6-6 in his 12 games played. And thats a Texans team that is better than us at just about every level on offense and defense. We need a guy with the potential to be more than average if we're at the stage where these type of stats are acceptable. Either we trade for a QB that shows potential or we draft a QB at #6 then. However, Im sick of these type of stats or worse from the QB position. Might as well not even take the field. 

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I can't see us being a better rushing team in 2015. Gailey us not going to force the run like Rex, he will be way more balanced to slightly pass dominant.

This will only be true if QB plays improves somewhat. If you have a QB throwing 1-2 picks/game, you better believe Bowles will do the same as Rex... keep trying to pound the rock and punt if need be. Try and let the defense keep you in the game and kick a ton of field goals. We cannot let the QB position continue to put us in terrible position to win.

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The way that these rankings are created can be deceiving at times. The Jets had the 6th best defense in the league by rankings, but ranked 24th in points allowed. How the hell are you ranked 6th best defense when pretty much every team can score on you? This is why I like Bowles. Arizona was the 24th ranked defense in the league, but 5th in points allowed, which is what really matters.

.

I understand Bowles is coordinating this year for 32nd in yards and first in points

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This will only be true if QB plays improves somewhat. If you have a QB throwing 1-2 picks/game, you better believe Bowles will do the same as Rex... keep trying to pound the rock and punt if need be. Try and let the defense keep you in the game and kick a ton of field goals. We cannot let the QB position continue to put us in terrible position to win.

Don't agree.I think Bowles is smart enough to realize that what you are suggesting makes it more likely for the QB to be in bad situations and make MORE turnovers. Did you really not learn that after all the years of failure with Rex doing just that. You cannot win in today's NFL with a "punt is good mentality". Period.

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I read that the Jets are obliged to use a lot of their cap space this year.  Not sure of the exact number but it is a lot.

  

They have to spend by next year, but would be wise to start spending this year to start catching up to where they need to be. I think this is why you hear that the Jets are talking to Wilkerson about a deal. If their cap situation was different, they'd probably put that off another year.

The way that these rankings are created can be deceiving at times. The Jets had the 6th best defense in the league by rankings, but ranked 24th in points allowed. How the hell are you ranked 6th best defense when pretty much every team can score on you? This is why I like Bowles. Arizona was the 24th ranked defense in the league, but 5th in points allowed, which is what really matters. 

Points scored against the offense count as points scored against the defense in those rankings, too. Plus all the short fields the Jets gave up with turnovers. This is why you hear Bowles talking about Geno having to protect the football. The most important improvement the defense needs to make is making sure the offense doesn't turn it over as much.

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They have to spend by next year, but would be wise to start spending this year to start catching up to where they need to be. I think this is why you hear that the Jets are talking to Wilkerson about a deal. If their cap situation was different, they'd probably put that off another year.

Points scored against the offense count as points scored against the defense in those rankings, too. Plus all the short fields the Jets gave up with turnovers. This is why you hear Bowles talking about Geno having to protect the football. The most important improvement the defense needs to make is making sure the offense doesn't turn it over as much.

Aah.  Thank you, sir.

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Some people are already "jumping off the cliff" with some of the offensive players

being associated with us (McCown, Spiller).  Picking them apart and doubting what

they could bring to the team.  To them I say, relax!!!  You need to keep your

expectations for our offense in 2015 to a realistic level.  My hopes for the offense

are as follows:

 

- Be in the top 5 rushing.  We were #3 last year and #6 in 2013

 

- Be in the 16-21 range of total offense

 

- Get average QB play from whoever is the starter.  To me that would be:

  * Completion % in the 58-60 range

  * Passing yards a game in the 195-205 range

  * TD's in the 15-17 range

  * INT's in the 9-11 range

 

We have to stop thinking that we are going to elevate to a GB/Rodgers level of offensive

efficiency.  That's not going to happen in one off-season, we need to shoot for realistic

goals

 

I think this is a pretty good post.  We can win games with average offense and good defense.  If you-know-who is not supplying turnovers.

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Points scored against the offense count as points scored against the defense in those rankings, too. Plus all the short fields the Jets gave up with turnovers. This is why you hear Bowles talking about Geno having to protect the football. The most important improvement the defense needs to make is making sure the offense doesn't turn it over as much.

All true, but sticking solely with the offensive side of the ball. It sucks to be top 3 in rushing but in the 20's in rushing TD's or that your QB is trash. 

 

As for the defense, they're our most solid group no doubt, but they're not elite. The last elite defense we had was Rex 1st year. They were #1 in total defense and #1 in points allowed, and that includes all those pick 6's Mark was throwing around. 

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All true, but sticking solely with the offensive side of the ball. It sucks to be top 3 in rushing but in the 20's in rushing TD's or that your QB is trash. 

 

As for the defense, they're our most solid group no doubt, but they're not elite. The last elite defense we had was Rex 1st year. They were #1 in total defense and #1 in points allowed, and that includes all those pick 6's Mark was throwing around. 

 

2010 wasn't elite?  Weren't they top 5 in both categories?

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Some people are already "jumping off the cliff" with some of the offensive players

being associated with us (McCown, Spiller).  Picking them apart and doubting what

they could bring to the team.  To them I say, relax!!!  You need to keep your

expectations for our offense in 2015 to a realistic level.  My hopes for the offense

are as follows:

 

- Be in the top 5 rushing.  We were #3 last year and #6 in 2013

 

- Be in the 16-21 range of total offense

 

- Get average QB play from whoever is the starter.  To me that would be:

  * Completion % in the 58-60 range

  * Passing yards a game in the 195-205 range

  * TD's in the 15-17 range

  * INT's in the 9-11 range

 

We have to stop thinking that we are going to elevate to a GB/Rodgers level of offensive

efficiency.  That's not going to happen in one off-season, we need to shoot for realistic

goals

 

Fitzpatrick's three years with Gailey seem to fit fairly close to those expectations.  There is a pretty fair chance he shakes loose if they re-sign Mallet.  He is on the 2nd year of a 2/$7.25M contract.  Due $3.25M.  Might not be a bad gamble, especially as a floor with a young developmental guy - whether it is Mariotta or a longer shot like Bridge.   These are Fitzpatrick's numbers with Gailey:

 

          57.8   230.8     23 15       .                 62.0   239.5     24 23                         60.6   212.5     24 16  
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Your QB stats are basically "stop gap" stats. 

 

So, what you're telling me is that in the "generation of the quarterback/passing offense" its okay, or serviceable for your QB to produce 60% completion, 17 TD's, 11 INT's and 205 yards per game? 

Geno Smith

59.7%

13TD's

13 INT's 

180 yards per game

 

You give Geno Smith .3% more, give him 4 more TD's, remove 2 INT's and give him 20 more yards per game and the Jets win about 2 more games. 

 

Why? Because though the Jets are top 3 in rushing, they're 20th in rushing touchdowns. 

Same thing last year. The Jets were 6th in rushing, 20th again in rushing touchdowns. 

 

The way that these rankings are created can be deceiving at times. The Jets had the 6th best defense in the league by rankings, but ranked 24th in points allowed. How the hell are you ranked 6th best defense when pretty much every team can score on you? This is why I like Bowles. Arizona was the 24th ranked defense in the league, but 5th in points allowed, which is what really matters. 

I could care less how many yards you gain, its about points. The Jets dont score points with that top 3 rushing attack and their top 10 defense is in the bottom 10 in points allowed, which means that if our QB ends up looking like the stats that you're willing to accept then this team will win 6 to 7 games instead of 4. 

 

Aren't we tired of stop gap JAG's at QB? Ryan Fitzpatrick could give us those exact numbers, actually, he could do slightly better. Look at his stats this year for the Texans and they went 6-6 in his 12 games played. And thats a Texans team that is better than us at just about every level on offense and defense. We need a guy with the potential to be more than average if we're at the stage where these type of stats are acceptable. Either we trade for a QB that shows potential or we draft a QB at #6 then. However, Im sick of these type of stats or worse from the QB position. Might as well not even take the field. 

 

I would love a JAG QB.

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Some people are already "jumping off the cliff" with some of the offensive players

being associated with us (McCown, Spiller).  Picking them apart and doubting what

they could bring to the team.  To them I say, relax!!!  You need to keep your

expectations for our offense in 2015 to a realistic level.  My hopes for the offense

are as follows:

 

- Be in the top 5 rushing.  We were #3 last year and #6 in 2013

 

- Be in the 16-21 range of total offense

 

- Get average QB play from whoever is the starter.  To me that would be:

  * Completion % in the 58-60 range

  * Passing yards a game in the 195-205 range

  * TD's in the 15-17 range

  * INT's in the 9-11 range

 

We have to stop thinking that we are going to elevate to a GB/Rodgers level of offensive

efficiency.  That's not going to happen in one off-season, we need to shoot for realistic

goals

No it's not but we went from 27th to 5th in scoring in just 2 years thanks to Vinny's career year in 1998.. As always how the QB does is the huge factor in the teams success..The difference from 1996-97 was 27th to 12th 15 spots up in 1 year isn't bad..

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