Jump to content

Powell generating buzz


DaBallhawk

Recommended Posts

Powells a quality rb, I like him.

I think he's a better second option to a rb like Peterson, or Murray, or Foster...guys that aren't going to get caught from behind.

I think having him behind a guy like Ivory diminishes his value to what he brings to the table.

We need someone with more speed behind Ivory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Jets have to spend money anyway. I don't know what kind of buzz Powell is generating, but retaining him for 3 years/$4M would be a pretty reasonable move in my mind. Skip Spiller, and draft a back. Powell may not be a take it to the house kinda guy, but he's a reliable pass blocker and pass catcher. He'll protects your QB and get you a first down on third down. They can draft a more dynamic guy, but that won't won't come into the league knowing how to block.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Ameer Abdulla falls to the 3rd round then PLEASE DRAFT HIM!

Ha ha, the whole time I'm reading this thread I was thinking about the same exact player!

Abdulla would be awesome in a Chan Gailey spread offense. Way more speed than Powell (who I like), but let's upgrade everywhere we can! He's CJ Spiller with more power!

Even if we sign Spiller I'd draft Abdulla, now that's a 3 headed monster, Ivory, Spiller, Abdulla!

You move the chains in the 1st half & tire a defense, Spiller & Abdulla would be nightmarish out in the flats in the 4th quarter!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/49358/five-things-we-learned-at-combine-jets

 

It's a shame we can't seem to get him going here. Last year before we brought in CJ he was supposed to be "that guy" behind Ivory, but we went with CJ instead. This year finally we thought he'd be the guy and now Spiller is being brought up. Spiller would be a good fit here with Chan and everything, especially as a change of pace type guy, but I'd rather have Powell stick around. He's a safer bet, he's younger, a better blocker and I love how patient he is, he reads blocks very well, really good vision, great cuts. Oh well. If a team like Baltimore, Denver or somebody likes that picks him up and gives him the ball 150-200 times he'll have a tremendous year I'm sure. I don't see him sticking around if we go after Spiller...

Blocking skills from RBs, TEs, and WR are so underappreciated.  The RB in particular is the QB's last line of protection and can buy the QB that precious extra time to complete a big pass as opposed to getting sacked. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since 2012 the Jets have run for 4.17 yards per running back carry (not rush yards total)

 

Bilal Powell in that time has run for an average of 4.0 per carry. Almost .2 under the team running back average. All of this while NOT being the team's short yardage back.

 

In that time he's caught 65 passes (targeted 108 times) - about a catch and a third per game for a total of 511 yards (about 11 yards receiving a game)

 

Am I supposed to cry that we might let him go? Do some knitting to take my mind off of possibly losing all this production?

 

Yeah, he's good in pass protection and all that. Solid player, locker room guy, but can we please come back to Earth a little here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since 2012 the Jets have run for 4.17 yards per running back carry (not rush yards total)

 

Bilal Powell in that time has run for an average of 4.0 per carry. Almost .2 under the team running back average. All of this while NOT being the team's short yardage back.

 

In that time he's caught 65 passes (targeted 108 times) - about a catch and a third per game for a total of 511 yards (about 11 yards receiving a game)

 

Am I supposed to cry that we might let him go? Do some knitting to take my mind off of possibly losing all this production?

 

Yeah, he's good in pass protection and all that. Solid player, locker room guy, but can we please come back to Earth a little here?

 

The way you break those numbers down says a lot. That's like saying Tebow is a better QB than Winston/Mariota because he has thrown about 20 more TD passes in the NFL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's about as ridiculous. Just the angle you take. And no, you're not supposed to cry over losing him. You're being silly.

 

Oh, you mean the angle that he's actually underperformed guys playing the same position behind the same offensive line in the same offense as him for the entirety of his career and that makes him a JAG? That angle? The one which numbers clearly indicate and cannot be obscured by some hackneyed eyeball test/burgeoning man crush? That angle?

 

You know, perception is a funny thing. You see the guy as a potential superstar just waiting to break out. I see a bowl of bran flakes. Won't kill you and will give you a good solid bowel movement.

 

He's eminently replaceable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha ha, the whole time I'm reading this thread I was thinking about the same exact player!

Abdulla would be awesome in a Chan Gailey spread offense. Way more speed than Powell (who I like), but let's upgrade everywhere we can! He's CJ Spiller with more power!

Even if we sign Spiller I'd draft Abdulla, now that's a 3 headed monster, Ivory, Spiller, Abdulla!

You move the chains in the 1st half & tire a defense, Spiller & Abdulla would be nightmarish out in the flats in the 4th quarter!

ALL 3 of them will get you QB killed pass bluffing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/49358/five-things-we-learned-at-combine-jets

 

It's a shame we can't seem to get him going here. Last year before we brought in CJ he was supposed to be "that guy" behind Ivory, but we went with CJ instead. This year finally we thought he'd be the guy and now Spiller is being brought up. Spiller would be a good fit here with Chan and everything, especially as a change of pace type guy, but I'd rather have Powell stick around. He's a safer bet, he's younger, a better blocker and I love how patient he is, he reads blocks very well, really good vision, great cuts. Oh well. If a team like Baltimore, Denver or somebody likes that picks him up and gives him the ball 150-200 times he'll have a tremendous year I'm sure. I don't see him sticking around if we go after Spiller...

 

To get a player going, he has to be given opportunity/balls.

 

Johnson was a waste here last year.  A mistake.

 

Ivory/Powell would have been fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

? Don't know what you mean?

Your blocking scheme allows you to throw in the flat. If they OLB jumps outside you have the QB run up inside for an easy 7 yards.

let me try and explain.

The key to being a good leak out RB, is the defensive player must believe you can actually block him. Nobody is afraid of being blocked by Ivory, Spiller or Abdullah.

 

The defender will run right over those 3 players 9 times out of 10 and none of them are catching anything lying on the turf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, you mean the angle that he's actually underperformed guys playing the same position behind the same offensive line in the same offense as him for the entirety of his career and that makes him a JAG? That angle? The one which numbers clearly indicate and cannot be obscured by some hackneyed eyeball test/burgeoning man crush? That angle?

 

You know, perception is a funny thing. You see the guy as a potential superstar just waiting to break out. I see a bowl of bran flakes. Won't kill you and will give you a good solid bowel movement.

 

He's eminently replaceable.

 

Underperformed? See, now you top your previous comment. You're just trying to be absurd, controversial. If you want to break down numbers the way you did, let's talk about how he had the best average out of all our backs. He was .2 yards per carry better than Ivory even, our starter, our Pro Bowl alternate. He scored as many rushing touchdowns as CJ did, on ~ 120 fewer carries. Start there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To get a player going, he has to be given opportunity/balls.

 

Johnson was a waste here last year.  A mistake.

 

Ivory/Powell would have been fine.

 

Agreed. Bilal doesn't lack skill, he lacks production. The only reason for that is because for whatever reason (no, not performance related) he didn't get the opporunities. Because we just HAD to get out there and bring in a washed up Chris Johnson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Underperformed? See, now you top your previous comment. You're just trying to be absurd, controversial. If you want to break down numbers the way you did, let's talk about how he had the best average out of all our backs. He was .2 yards per carry better than Ivory even, our starter, our Pro Bowl alternate. He scored as many rushing touchdowns as CJ did, on ~ 120 fewer carries. Start there.

Lol yeah lets focus on the 33 carries he had last year and not the other three hundred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed. Bilal doesn't lack skill, he lacks production. The only reason for that is because for whatever reason (no, not performance related) he didn't get the opporunities. Because we just HAD to get out there and bring in a washed up Chris Johnson.

The two years he got "opportunities" he was the definition of meh. Which is why he got 30 carries last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol yeah lets focus on the 33 carries he had last year and not the other three hundred.

 

Why does it matter what his avg was 3 years ago? You don't see how pointless it is to even bring that up? He got better since then, it's a different offense, he was a rookie back then. Just makes no sense what you're saying. Or the way you're trying to say something.

 

We all agree that he doesn't make or break us. Keeping or losing him. But when you watch the tape, the guy runs his tail off. He makes the most out of nothing, he has excellent vision, great cuts, just great chemistry with the O-Line, he reads the blocks well, he lets them do their job, he doesn't overpursue. He can block, he can catch, he can return kicks. He's durable, reliable. He's young, he's got fresh legs. Like I said, he's worked his butt off since we drafted him, he got better each year, made progress each year. To be honest, I thought he was garbage after his rookie year. There was absolutely nothing that made me thing he should be even on our roster. Fast forward 2-3 years and you have a rock solid RB who does EVERYTHING well. He didn't do ANYTHING well in his rookie year. That's how much he improved. Typical overachiever, hard worker. Teams need guys like that. He should be rewarded with a decent contract and a WAY bigger role in this offense. Don't drop him for something/somebody that you don't know what he'll bring to the table. Like Spiller. We know what we have in Powell, why gamble? And bring in an older, less reliable, more expensive player in that played for a division rival in? Instead of keeping the guy we drafted 4 years ago? None of this makes sense. There's no reason why you let him walk. UNLESS he's asking for a #1 job or a ridiculous contract and I just don't see that even being on his mind, let alone him asking for something like that.

 

Are we going to finish the year 0-16 if Powell walks? Yeah, probably not. We get it. Doesn't mean he shouldn't be re-signed, just because he doesn't guarantee us a superbowl. He's part of it. An important part, even if Ivory doesn't get injured.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why does it matter what his avg was 3 years ago? You don't see how pointless it is to even bring that up? He got better since then, it's a different offense, he was a rookie back then. Just makes no sense what you're saying. Or the way you're trying to say something.

 

We all agree that he doesn't make or break us. Keeping or losing him. But when you watch the tape, the guy runs his tail off. He makes the most out of nothing, he has excellent vision, great cuts, just great chemistry with the O-Line, he reads the blocks well, he lets them do their job, he doesn't overpursue. He can block, he can catch, he can return kicks. He's durable, reliable. He's young, he's got fresh legs. Like I said, he's worked his butt off since we drafted him, he got better each year, made progress each year. To be honest, I thought he was garbage after his rookie year. There was absolutely nothing that made me thing he should be even on our roster. Fast forward 2-3 years and you have a rock solid RB who does EVERYTHING well. He didn't do ANYTHING well in his rookie year. That's how much he improved. Typical overachiever, hard worker. Teams need guys like that. He should be rewarded with a decent contract and a WAY bigger role in this offense. Don't drop him for something/somebody that you don't know what he'll bring to the table. Like Spiller. We know what we have in Powell, why gamble? And bring in an older, less reliable, more expensive player in that played for a division rival in? Instead of keeping the guy we drafted 4 years ago? None of this makes sense. There's no reason why you let him walk. UNLESS he's asking for a #1 job or a ridiculous contract and I just don't see that even being on his mind, let alone him asking for something like that.

 

Are we going to finish the year 0-16 if Powell walks? Yeah, probably not. We get it. Doesn't mean he shouldn't be re-signed, just because he doesn't guarantee us a superbowl. He's part of it. An important part, even if Ivory doesn't get injured.

 

You saw all that in 33 carries last year, huh? You're incredibly astute.

 

A WAY bigger role in the offense? What does that even mean? Thirty SEVEN carries?

 

Yeah, the guy is solid, I'd have no argument in keeping him, but if somebody wants him that bad (BUZZ?) have at him, wish him well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Powell does seem to have picked it up in the chances he had last year.  His pass receiving in important situations seems to have improved.  I'm not sure if this perception is because Powell has gotten that much better or the Chris Johnson was such a bust, especially early in the year, that it was a breath of fresh air to get someone in the game who actually ran hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely think it's unfair to him to quote his rookie stats. To me all it says is he wasn't a good rookie.  BFD.  He was a different type of runner in that he looked very hesitant and unsure of himself. Hell, he was even a different caliber blocker, as I remember him missing or just screwing up his assignment late in the season inside the 5 or 10. To use a play like that, as a rookie, as even part of the basis for suggesting he's less of the blocker he has become, would be unfair to him, but no one's got that concern because there's no official blocking stat for RBs like carries/yards/TDs.  As a free agent in 3 weeks, he is the player he is and is likely to be for the next 2-3 seasons, not the player he was 4 seasons ago as a rookie who barely saw the field.

 

At the same time, it's also hard to look at both good and poor statistical performances when he's only gotten sporadic carries (>5 in a game, for example).  So I would look at games he got 8+ carries if one wanted to cite stats. I think more carries per game would paint a better picture, but he just doesn't have enough games with 10+ let alone 12 or 15-plus carries.

 

The thing is his numbers on paper still weren't particularly good. The barely-4.0 ypc was largely padded by games against bad rush defenses. 

 

(2012) 

  • Miami 4.5 ypc (#13 rush D) 
  • Arizona 4.8 ypc (#28 rush D)
  • Jacksonville 4.1 ypc (#30 rush D)
  • Buffalo 4.7 ypc (#31 rush D)

 

(2013) 

  • Buffalo 5.5 ypc (#28 rush D)
  • Tennessee 4.7 ypc (#20 rush D)
  • Carolina 4.6 ypc (#2 rush D) (borderline to include, as he had 8 carries and it's some arbitrary cutoff I just threw out there. On the one hand it's not fair to take away his one really good run, but on the other hand it has a profound effect on an average and is not indicative of what we expect to get out of him on an average carry. In reality he had 7 carries that averaged 3.1ypc plus a 15 yarder through an open running lane, coming in on one play to give Ivory a blow after burning Carolina for 35 himself.)

 

Now the 8+ carry games with under 4.0:

 

(2012)

  • Pittsburgh 3.7 ypc (#2 rush D)
  • St Louis 3.8 ypc (#15 rush D)
  • NE 3.3 ypc (#9 rush D)

 

(2013)

  • TB 2.4 ypc (#15 rush D)
  • NE 3.7 ypc (#30 rush D)
  • Atl 3.2 ypc (#31 rush D)
  • Pit 3.3 ypc (#21 rush D)
  • Cin 1.9 ypc (#5 rush D)
  • Bal 3.7 ypc (#11 rush D)
  • Oak 1.7 ypc (#13 rush D)
  • Mia 3.6 ypc (#24 rush D)

(I isolated this more for myself, as I was just curious.)

 

Also consider, when averaging all these in, that with the exception of a couple of games where Ivory was banged up Powell was never the Jets' designated short yardage or goal line back. The types of carries that kill a ypc average because everyone knows it's coming and in the best case outcome still gets a runner only a yard or two.

 

This was not a statistical disadvantage Powell had. Only 49 career carries where there were 1-3 yards to go. Compare that to 283 carries with 4+ yards to go (211 when there were 10+ yards to go and the defense had to be thinking pass as much as run). He didn't make his living here in obvious running situations that kill a RB's average gain. So count me in as one that is unsympathetic to his ypc here. Usually with guys who haven't gotten enough carries we're seeing well above average and the question is more as to whether that's sustainable or just because he was fresh and rested when everyone on defense was tired and exhausted.

 

I did appreciate every now and then he'd come in and occasionally show a better than expected ("Where'd that come from?") burst, like against NE towards the end of this past season. But those plays were balanced by getting stuffed for no gain if a hole didn't open up for him. He's neither very fast nor very elusive nor very powerful. He is a good blocker (not nothing), seemed to be a good receiver, and has some ability to break a tackle or make a quicker first cut.  

 

I don't know. I'm ok with bringing him back, but not for more than 3rd down back $ (whatever that is). It would be nice to get faster at the position. Ivory is young enough to play through at least 2 years on a new contract after this season, if he's still playing well, so it would be better to have someone with more speed to complement him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...