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Jets "Non-Believers" in Analytics- ESPN


Matt39

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Looks like one team is already ahead of the curve.

 

 

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert goes on to say that the Pats’ use of statistics “…suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.” Good thing there was enough innovation left over after drawing up all those wide-receivers-throwing-touchdown-pass plays.

 

More on Pats and stats:

 

“Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.

 

Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: “Ernie’s really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie’s very, very smart.”

 

“One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.”

 

http://chowderandchampions.com/2015/02/23/new-england-patriots-believers-analytics/

Without Brady QBing it's all a bunch of hullabaloo!

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Sort of. He just started so few games. Pretty easy to get fooled. I think Lewin actually had Sanchez ahead of Stafford in the face of his own numbers.

 

My memory is that he profiled like Akili Smith, but they over ruled it for some reason

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Casual Baseball Fan: "Ever see Money Ball? That was really interesting."

 

Me: "Yeah. You know how many Championships those A's teams won?"

 

Casual Baseball fan: "No, how many?"

 

Me: "None"

 

Casual Baseball Fan: ".........." 

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Browns' belief in analytics complicates Bridgewater-Manziel draft decision

February, 24, 2015
Feb 24
8:00
AM ET
By Jeremy Fowler | ESPN.com
ESPN's terrific in-depth look at how analytics are used in all pro sports leagues highlights the Browns' stance as "believers" in advanced metrics to evaluate football matters. Check out how the Browns use analytics in the story here.

The Browns are one of nine NFL teams in the "believers" category. In 2012, team president Alec Scheiner brought analytics chief Ken Kovash with him from Dallas.

The story reminds us how the Browns could have followed analytics to draft Teddy Bridgewater:

ESPN reported that under (former CEO Joe Banner's) leadership the team spent $100,000 on an independent study of the 2014 quarterback class based on advanced stats. The study revealed that Teddy Bridgewater was the top prospect for the year. But Banner's ouster in early 2014 changed the team's front-office dynamic, and as is well known, the Browns drafted
Johnny Manziel
.

The story adds that current GM Ray Farmer is not a true believer in analytics but is "a nerd by trait" and a stats guy.

Of course, it's easy to say the Browns should have trusted that independent study because of the jarring contrast between Bridgewater's rookie performance in Minnesota and Manziel's rookie struggles and eventual entrance into a treatment facility. How much good information was ignored?

But the team's passing on Bridgewater is another byproduct of constant regime changes in Cleveland. Had the team's analytical approach been embedded with a tenured personnel department, perhaps all the top brass in Berea would've been comfortable with Bridgewater at No. 22 overall. The firing of Banner and coach Rob Chudzinski complicated the transition at a crucial point in the offseason -- months before the draft.

With Year 2 of Farmer and coach Mike Pettine, analytics should only enhance the Browns' draft and free-agency plans.

 

 

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Casual Baseball Fan: "Ever see Money Ball? That was really interesting."

 

Me: "Yeah. You know how many Championships those A's teams won?"

 

Casual Baseball fan: "No, how many?"

 

Me: "None"

 

Casual Baseball Fan: ".........." 

 

A's were't the only team who were on the forefront of advanced statistics, Red Sox are another. 

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Casual Baseball Fan: "Ever see Money Ball? That was really interesting."

 

Me: "Yeah. You know how many Championships those A's teams won?"

 

Casual Baseball fan: "No, how many?"

 

Me: "None"

 

Casual Baseball Fan: ".........."

Might have been otherwise if their budget was $75M instead of an impossible $45M. Or in particular if every MLB team had the same roster budget like the NFL. Then wiser allocations of those common resources would more likely show up in the way that ultimately matters in the end.

But also in MLB one player can't be as important as 2/3 of his teammates combined like a top 10 NFL QB. There isn't enough cap room for a GM to moneyball one's way around a bottom-tier QB who just gives the frigging ball away.

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People who diss analytics unfortunately have no idea what they're talking about.

 

A lot of time good coaching simply matches up one to one with good analytics, but nevertheless there are bad coaches that want to do things there way and its often very easy to see via analytics exactly why they are bad.

 

One example is going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line in a tie ball game with plenty of time to play.  If your team has a good defense, analytics very clearly says to go for it.  This doesn't stop a bunch of really terrible coaches from kicking the field goal anyway, even in situations where they are down points.

 

Other good uses of analytics is crafting Kaepernicks contract, and the way the Patriots trade down yet frequently end up with more value than they gave up in the first place.   There are drafts where BB trades down from a 3rd, and ends up with a first round pick out of the deal.  Use of analytics would prevent teams from being suckered into that sort of thing, yet despite this year after year people still do it anyway. 

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Looks like one team is already ahead of the curve.

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert goes on to say that the Pats’ use of statistics “…suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.” Good thing there was enough innovation left over after drawing up all those wide-receivers-throwing-touchdown-pass plays.

More on Pats and stats:

“Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.

Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: “Ernie’s really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie’s very, very smart.”

“One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.”

http://chowderandchampions.com/2015/02/23/new-england-patriots-believers-analytics/

It must've been Aaron Hernandez's high slugging percentage that got him drafted.

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Looks like one team is already ahead of the curve.

 

 

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert goes on to say that the Pats’ use of statistics “…suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.” Good thing there was enough innovation left over after drawing up all those wide-receivers-throwing-touchdown-pass plays.

 

More on Pats and stats:

 

“Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.

 

Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: “Ernie’s really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie’s very, very smart.”

 

“One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.”

 

http://chowderandchampions.com/2015/02/23/new-england-patriots-believers-analytics/

 

All of which makes it utterly ridiculous the claims that Bill Belichick was unaware of the statistical relationship between ball pressure and fumbling.

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Old school techniques of using your eyes and viewing film is the ONLY way to 

judge players.  Reducing everything to a stat is stupid and lazy

 

the 'moneyball' approach and 'analytics' are not synonymous.   every team uses analytics to some extent, that's what a draft grade is (a weighted average based on a number of factors).    

 

fwiw, the Packers are big into analytics with regard to the draft and are probably one of the best drafting teams in the NFL.    

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Looks like one team is already ahead of the curve.

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert goes on to say that the Pats’ use of statistics “…suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.” Good thing there was enough innovation left over after drawing up all those wide-receivers-throwing-touchdown-pass plays.

More on Pats and stats:

“Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.

Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: “Ernie’s really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie’s very, very smart.”

“One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.”

http://chowderandchampions.com/2015/02/23/new-england-patriots-believers-analytics/

Yeah cuz calculating a backup LB's WAR is responsible for the pats winning a Super Bowl not Brady and signing Darelle Revis.

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The whole Money Ball thing is based on undervalued players, since baseball had minor league and advanced metrics looked for key factory's in a player that someone over looked, it sort of worked.

In the NFL there are no real undervalued players. Your not going to find an All-Pro hiding on someone's practice squad, or 3rd string rotation guy. It's good drafting, filling need in FA, and coaching. It also helps if your team has an All World Q.B, in which case it does not matter, since your getting Ten Wins ever year min.

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Casual Baseball Fan: "Ever see Money Ball? That was really interesting."

 

Me: "Yeah. You know how many Championships those A's teams won?"

 

Casual Baseball fan: "No, how many?"

 

Me: "None"

 

Casual Baseball Fan: ".........." 

 

For a low payroll team they've been very successful. 

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The Jets are NON-BELIEVERS BECAUSE THEY SEE WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS & DO NOT LIKE IT!!!

 

 

 

 

 

Inside Slant: The other side of NFL wearable technology

 

March, 2, 2015
MAR 2
10:00
AM ET
By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
 
BOSTON -- Andrew Hawkins can see it clearly. One day in the non-so-distant future, an NFL player will be called into the general manager's office. He'll sit down at a table ... 
"... And they'll just slide the paper over," Hawkins said. "You'll look at it, get up and walk out. It will be pretty challenging to dispute." 

Hawkins, a wide receiver who played last season for the Cleveland Browns, was outlining a scenario he believes will result from the NFL's looming technology boom. Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Hawkins said the pending availability of performance data will make player evaluation "less of a conversation" and more of an objective assessment, one that can be displayed neatly on a line graph generated by software aligned with GPS-like chips embedded under their pads. 
 
It's a frightening proposition for many players accustomed to the subjective judgment of coaches and scouts, and leads to obvious questions. How much will objective data impact a player's value? If a team notices, say, a player's average speed in practice is trending downward, will he be judged to be dogging it? Or will the team conclude he is simply slowing down and cut him? 

"It sucks," Hawkins said, "but you just understand the business. Whether you like it or not, it's going to get to that point. In football, philosophically, they would much rather use a rabbit's foot than actual data from wearable tech to win a football game. But it's a matter of time before it gets here. You just have to hope there is a balance." 

Among the primary takeaways of the Sloan Conference was the quick saturation of wearable technology, in the NFL and elsewhere, that really entered the U.S. market only a few years ago. It has happened so quickly, however, that players would be wise to assess its full impact before joining in the excitement. 

As we've discussed, more than half of the NFL's teams employ some form of player tracking during training camp and regular-season practices, ostensibly to monitor exertion and prevent injuries. And in 2014, the NFL for the first time tracked players during games in the same way. It doesn't yet release the data to teams, but it seems unlikely to remain locked in the digital vault forever. 

As Hawkins alluded to, the NFL infrastructure is relatively change-averse. It celebrated the arrival of tablets on the sidelines about five years after they were available to the general public. ("And we still look at still photos with them!" Hawkins exclaimed. "So all we did is pay a lot of money to save paper. Why not look at the video? I'm sure we will ... someday.") But coaches are quickly adapting -- the New Orleans Saints' Sean Payton strongly endorsed wearable technology at Sloan-- and there already is some anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness. 

Hawkins, for example, told the story of a teammate who had a history of hamstring injuries before last season. Browns coaches used tracking data to monitor his practice workload more efficiently, limiting his repetitions to the point where he made it through the season injury-free. 

Data might provide NFL teams with advance warning of a player's decline, but according to Brian Kopp -- the North America president of Catapult Sports -- it should be able to enhance a career first. 

"Hopefully your career is extended by two or three years with this before you start to lose it," Kopp said. "Your coach doesn't want to 'catch' you. He doesn't want to cut you. He wants to maximize you and the careers in the sports that they play. I know it's going to be a big issue: How are you going to figure out what the front office can use, and what athletes have access to. It's something that still needs to be worked out. But hopefully both sides know the benefits. Teams aren't looking to get rid of guys. They want them to help win." 

Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who appeared Friday at Sloan, acknowledged teams would probably be most interested in collecting data to avoid team-building mistakes. But, he said, players will ultimately appreciate the context it gives to decisions that probably were going to be made anyway. 

"I really don't look at that as anything that would bother me," he said. "I would actually rather them give me hard-core analytics, tell me what have I lost, how have I changed, [than a generic explanation]. But the important thing is to remind them that whatever I lost, it was in winning games for you. Losing speed, for example, doesn't mean that I'm done in my career. It's just telling you what I am now." 

Given the state of labor relations in the NFL, players should probably cast a skeptical eye on any additional methods of evaluating their performance. You wonder if at some point the NFL Players Association will seek to make its use a matter of collective bargaining. On the list of issues facing NFL players, the availability of data might not rank at the top. But it's coming, and it's worth a close examination from every angle.
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Casual Baseball Fan: "Ever see Money Ball? That was really interesting."

 

Me: "Yeah. You know how many Championships those A's teams won?"

 

Casual Baseball fan: "No, how many?"

 

Me: "None"

 

Casual Baseball Fan: ".........." 

 

My favorite part of that movie is at the end when it claims on the screen that the"Red Sox employed these methods to win the 2004 World Series." Of course they conveniently failed to mention the Red Sox' $150 million payroll. 

 

So in baseball, analytics plus a sh*tload of money = championship. 

 

Fortunately for me, the Yankees had the sh*tload of money part figured out long before anybody ever heard of analytics. 

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The Jets are NON-BELIEVERS BECAUSE THEY SEE WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS & DO NOT LIKE IT!!!

 

 

 

 

 

Inside Slant: The other side of NFL wearable technology

 

March, 2, 2015
MAR 2
10:00
AM ET
By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
 
BOSTON -- Andrew Hawkins can see it clearly. One day in the non-so-distant future, an NFL player will be called into the general manager's office. He'll sit down at a table ... 

"... And they'll just slide the paper over," Hawkins said. "You'll look at it, get up and walk out. It will be pretty challenging to dispute." 

Hawkins, a wide receiver who played last season for the Cleveland Browns, was outlining a scenario he believes will result from the NFL's looming technology boom. Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Hawkins said the pending availability of performance data will make player evaluation "less of a conversation" and more of an objective assessment, one that can be displayed neatly on a line graph generated by software aligned with GPS-like chips embedded under their pads. 

 

It's a frightening proposition for many players accustomed to the subjective judgment of coaches and scouts, and leads to obvious questions. How much will objective data impact a player's value? If a team notices, say, a player's average speed in practice is trending downward, will he be judged to be dogging it? Or will the team conclude he is simply slowing down and cut him? 

"It sucks," Hawkins said, "but you just understand the business. Whether you like it or not, it's going to get to that point. In football, philosophically, they would much rather use a rabbit's foot than actual data from wearable tech to win a football game. But it's a matter of time before it gets here. You just have to hope there is a balance." 

Among the primary takeaways of the Sloan Conference was the quick saturation of wearable technology, in the NFL and elsewhere, that really entered the U.S. market only a few years ago. It has happened so quickly, however, that players would be wise to assess its full impact before joining in the excitement. 

As we've discussed, more than half of the NFL's teams employ some form of player tracking during training camp and regular-season practices, ostensibly to monitor exertion and prevent injuries. And in 2014, the NFL for the first time tracked players during games in the same way. It doesn't yet release the data to teams, but it seems unlikely to remain locked in the digital vault forever. 

As Hawkins alluded to, the NFL infrastructure is relatively change-averse. It celebrated the arrival of tablets on the sidelines about five years after they were available to the general public. ("And we still look at still photos with them!" Hawkins exclaimed. "So all we did is pay a lot of money to save paper. Why not look at the video? I'm sure we will ... someday.") But coaches are quickly adapting -- the New Orleans Saints' Sean Payton strongly endorsed wearable technology at Sloan-- and there already is some anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness. 

Hawkins, for example, told the story of a teammate who had a history of hamstring injuries before last season. Browns coaches used tracking data to monitor his practice workload more efficiently, limiting his repetitions to the point where he made it through the season injury-free. 

Data might provide NFL teams with advance warning of a player's decline, but according to Brian Kopp -- the North America president of Catapult Sports -- it should be able to enhance a career first. 

"Hopefully your career is extended by two or three years with this before you start to lose it," Kopp said. "Your coach doesn't want to 'catch' you. He doesn't want to cut you. He wants to maximize you and the careers in the sports that they play. I know it's going to be a big issue: How are you going to figure out what the front office can use, and what athletes have access to. It's something that still needs to be worked out. But hopefully both sides know the benefits. Teams aren't looking to get rid of guys. They want them to help win." 

Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who appeared Friday at Sloan, acknowledged teams would probably be most interested in collecting data to avoid team-building mistakes. But, he said, players will ultimately appreciate the context it gives to decisions that probably were going to be made anyway. 

"I really don't look at that as anything that would bother me," he said. "I would actually rather them give me hard-core analytics, tell me what have I lost, how have I changed, [than a generic explanation]. But the important thing is to remind them that whatever I lost, it was in winning games for you. Losing speed, for example, doesn't mean that I'm done in my career. It's just telling you what I am now." 

Given the state of labor relations in the NFL, players should probably cast a skeptical eye on any additional methods of evaluating their performance. You wonder if at some point the NFL Players Association will seek to make its use a matter of collective bargaining. On the list of issues facing NFL players, the availability of data might not rank at the top. But it's coming, and it's worth a close examination from every angle.

 

 

The whole concept of wearable technology would have made Tom Landry soil himself. 

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My favorite part of that movie is at the end when it claims on the screen that the"Red Sox employed these methods to win the 2004 World Series." Of course they conveniently failed to mention the Red Sox' $150 million payroll. 

 

So in baseball, analytics plus a sh*tload of money = championship. 

 

Fortunately for me, the Yankees had the sh*tload of money part figured out long before anybody ever heard of analytics. 

 

 

Im a Yankee fan too. But I have to be honest, I hate what they've been since they lost the 01 WS. A lot of those 90's WS teams were system and traded players. Hate the mercenary route in any sport. 

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Im a Yankee fan too. But I have to be honest, I hate what they've been since they lost the 01 WS. A lot of those 90's WS teams were system and traded players. Hate the mercenary route in any sport. 

 

The last 15 years have been very reminiscent of the 80s.

 

The money's only going to get you so far. At some point the Yankess may have to bite the bullet and just rebuild the farm system while the big club stuggles for a few years like they did in the early 90s. 

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Nobody makes it out to be the end-all, be-all. Analytics just means studying trends in data. Everybody does this whether they understand it or not.

 

 

Oh, yes they do. WAR is like the Bible stat for some geeks. Batting average? nah. RBIs? Hits? HR? Nope. WAR is the only thing they go to. 

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This.

 

People who make it out to be the end all be all are just as misguided as the people who say its useless.  

 

The thing is that there isn't anyone that knows analytics that argues it's the be all end all. That's dumb people getting defensive by people who know math because I know sports and stuff so there's no way this computer can know anything better than I can because that would mean I have to admit I don't know something which is impossible because I read Wikipedia and watch YouTube.

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The thing is that there isn't anyone that knows analytics that argues it's the be all end all. That's dumb people getting defensive by people who know math because I know sports and stuff so there's no way this computer can know anything better than I can because that would mean I have to admit I don't know something which is impossible because I read Wikipedia and watch YouTube.

 

YOU MEAN YOU CAN'T KNOW EVERYTHING FROM READING THE WIKIPEDIA?

 

Bq69RiS.gif

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Oh, yes they do. WAR is like the Bible stat for some geeks. Batting average? nah. RBIs? Hits? HR? Nope. WAR is the only thing they go to.

If WAR were the only thing that they considered, how come you don't see, for example, teams that randomly have five first basemen and no shortstops? This kind of thing would happen, and not infrequently, if they are literally only considering WAR. So clearly they're thinking about some other things, right?

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If WAR were the only thing that they considered, how come you don't see, for example, teams that randomly have five first basemen and no shortstops? This kind of thing would happen, and not infrequently, if they are literally only considering WAR. So clearly they're thinking about some other things, right?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_leagues.shtml

 

Not sure I follow. WAR applies to every position. 

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