In Defense of Geno Smith

[oc_jet]

I know this wont be popular but the author makes an interesting case for why Geno was misused and could turn out to be a decent QB.

 

http://network.yardbarker.com/author/article_external/18372098?widget=true

 

It’s all Matt Ryan’s fault.

Pre-2008 rookie quarterbacks had no expectations. Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers spent full seasons on the bench. Eli Manning waited until November for his first start. Ben Roethlisberger was a hero for starting as a rookie and just generally not making a McCown of himself. Only the truly exceptional rookies, your Peyton Manning’s and Dan Marino’s, were expected to start from Day 1. Even fewer were expected to thrive. Until Matt Ryan had to go and ruin the curve. Matt Ryan led the Falcons to an 11–5 record and the playoffs. Joe Flacco matched him in the AFC. And then Mark Sanchez played in two AFC Championship games, Cam Newton threw for 4,000 yards, Andrew Luck graduated from Harbaugh University, and Russell Wilson emerged from the primordial ooze to guide humanity through the dark times. Suddenly rookie quarterbacks had expectations and sophomore quarterbacks had hot seats.

This is how a moderately promising young quarterback like Austin Davis can be benched for the sin of youth after just eight starts. It’s why Blake Bortles is a bust just one year in and why Johnny Manziel is going to have to earn a chance to start next year. It’s what ruined the first act of Geno Smith’s career to such a degree that there may not be a second.

 

Smith is, as far as quarterbacks go, the ultimate victim of circumstance. He was a second-round pick tasked with undoing all of the damage wrought by Sanchez, forced into a starting role he wasn’t prepared for under a coach known specifically for stunting quarterback growth and on a team so bereft of offensive weapons the additions of a Peyton Manning-less Eric Decker and Percy Harvin were considered massive upgrades. He failed just as almost any quarterback would, but that doesn’t mean he’s terrible by default. In fact, down the stretch, Geno played fairly good football. Over his last six games, he completed 65.7 percent of his passes, threw only three interceptions, and had a QB rating of 98.3. Five of those six games came against good defenses: New England, Miami twice, Buffalo, and Minnesota. It’s not as if this were the result of throwing easy passes either, his 8.62 yards per attempt in that span would have led the NFL if it came over an entire season.

 

Geno’s issues are largely mental. He came into the league without a particularly strong work ethic, and he has a tendency to let bad plays snowball. He has thrown 34 career interceptions, but what happens afterward tells the greater tale. In the drives immediately following his interceptions, Smith led the Jets to a touchdown only four times. That’s a rate of 11.8 percent. If you want a more tangible way to look at it, assume your team gets eight possessions in a game and only scores a touchdown on one of them. That’s the level Smith plays at after throwing an interception. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the stereotypical short memory for a quarterback that allows guys like Brett Favre and Eli Manning to make as many mistakes as they do and still thrive. Just look at the Buffalo game when he was benched this season. One interception led to a second, which led to a third.

 

 

That’s not a great sign, but it’s encouraging that Smith cut his interceptions so greatly after returning to the lineup. It indicates a level of growth in his decision-making, which in turn might lead to the sort of psychological growth necessary to overcome interceptions. The other encouraging sign? The presence of Chan Gailey as New York’s new offensive coordinator.

Gailey’s spread-system is far closer to the Air Raid system Smith played in college both in personnel and playbook than Marty Mornhinweg’s West Coast scheme. Smith tends to be far more effective as a shotgun passer and is comfortable on the move, two things Mornhinweg’s system didn’t always facilitate. Gailey’s does. He is far more comfortable in operating a running game out of the shotgun, making it harder for defenses to know what’s coming, even on obvious passing downs. He also favors the sort of yards-after-catch routes that Smith ran very efficiently at West Virginia, with the spread formation serving to create one-on-one match ups between receivers and slower defenders. It is a far friendlier system to young quarterbacks who may not have a strong enough grasp of defenses to take Mornhinweg’s approach of heavy three-step drops and throws.

Of course, mastering the offense last year would’ve been very difficult considering the circumstances. The Jets were playing for a lame-duck coach who yanked Smith’s reps in favor of Michael Vick. It’s much harder to grow as a player when you don’t know how much you’re actually going to play, and the New York media exacerbates that pressure. Throw a few interceptions in the Jets circus and everyone immediately calls for your head.

That’s just not conducive to quarterback growth. Historically speaking, this is right around the point where young quarterbacks hit their stride. Just because recent trends have indicated otherwise doesn’t mean Geno is somehow a lost cause. He’s developing at the pace most quarterbacks do, and if given the chance likely has a lot more growing to do. At this stage it may not come in New York, but Geno Smith is far from a lost cause. Don’t let Matt Ryan’s brilliance tell you otherwise.

 

 

[Vinny16]

I still think Geno can be a decent NFL QB.  While there are plenty of things that he's done that have been his fault, it wasn't his fault that he was drafted by a team that, during his first two years, in no way valued the offensive side of the ball and was coached by some very poor coaches on the offensive side of the ball.

 

With some quality coaching for a change, Geno might be able to turn the corner.  He at least deserves that chance.

[shuler82]

We might not have a better 2015 option. Baby jesus help us.

[Sully28]

Geno is probably in the best position to succeed in his career after this offseason, OL will be improved, a true #1 WR a progressed TE most likely in Amaro, an OC who runs an offense similar to Holgerson at WVU, Defense will also be much better in terms of turnovers I expect (how could it get worse than last year?). Plus, this is his third year and is now up to speed and familiar with the NFL game. Don't count out Geno in 2015, he could surprise everyone on this board.

[Baeton Manning]

Every year, a couple teams do well with quarterback play that's "okay" at best.

I'm not looking forward to a quarterback competition between Geno Smith and, like, Ryan Fitzpatrick because really, who would? Still, if we spend close to the ceiling and the first round pick works out, the team will be so much better to watch than last year's.

[RoadFan]

The only Geno defense, IMO, is that I do not think he got even one ounce of good coaching under Rex's staff.

Neither did Mark. Mark is still a backup-caliber turnover machine. But clearly, he improved a little under Chip.

[Vinny16]

Geno is probably in the best position to succeed in his career after this offseason, OL will be improved, a true #1 WR a progressed TE most likely in Amaro, an OC who runs an offense similar to Holgerson at WVU, Defense will also be much better in terms of turnovers I expect (how could it get worse than last year?). Plus, this is his third year and is now up to speed and familiar with the NFL game. Don't count out Geno in 2015, he could surprise everyone on this board.

 

Add to that the fact that, unless his head is in completely the wrong place, Geno will enter 2015 as an extremely motivated player.  The combination of good coaching (for the first time in his NFL career), solid WRs, experience, and motivation to prove everybody wrong, and Geno could be poised for a very good year.

 

Not saying that it will happen, but things could fall into place for Geno to seriously raise his level of play.  And, if he does that, then we could make another surprise run like in 2009.

[RutgersJetFan]

The romanticized hindsight that is following Geno after both of his horrendous seasons is starting to mirror that of Sanchez. Geno is trash and acted like an asshat this past season to boot. The dude is not qualified to be a starter in the NFL and sure as sh*t does not have the mental makeup to play in New York.

[JetsHex]

The Jets are doing the right thing here. They are acquiring weapons and improving around the QB position. We are beginning to get players who will actually fight for contested balls and win those battles. You definitely cannot say that for his first 2 years. He obviously has the physical tools and speed to run for chunks of yards when necessary. Not every interception has been his fault(a majority were) but how many times have we seen our below average recivers drop balls that hit them in the hands and chest or tip them up for the defense to pick? Teams knew to throw the kitchen sink at him because, yes, he is fairly slow at diagnosing what the defense is doing but also because the receivers could not get open against mediocre DB's and make them pay. I know everyone here calling for Geno's head were masters of their craft at the highest level at age 24 but let's give the guy some quality weapons and a chance. We might be seeing some of those same throws that were picks turn into TD's this time around.

 

P.S. All the successful rookie QB's mentioned here had far superior skill players

[Tinstar]

The romanticized hindsight that is following Geno after both of his horrendous seasons is starting to mirror that of Sanchez. Geno is trash and acted like an asshat this past season to boot. The dude is not qualified to be a starter in the NFL and sure as sh*t does not have the mental makeup to play in New York.

Are you qualified to make this evaluation or did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night  ?

[oc_jet]

Looking at Geno's college stats http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/geno-smith-1.html, they were remarkably similar to those of Mariota. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marcus-mariota-1.html So he obviously has some talent having succeeded before. The more we hear about the Jets last two seasons it seems apparent there was something very dysfunctional going on which pervaded and affected the whole team. Geno wasnt given weapons, wasnt put in a position to utilize his strengths and was basically thrown to the wolves in a system with which he had no familiarity with. He also didnt seem to be coached well enough to improve. Of course, his mistakes didnt help his cause. 

 

I hope that with a full off-season to prepare and practice with Marshall, Decker, Kerley and Amaro things will gel for him and the team. With the JETS, it has to as this is his last shot. If he cant do it with the talent around him and the supposed player friendly scheme of Gailey then Smith will and should be run out of town.

     or 

[RSJ]

I like the idea of going into this season with the likes of Geno, Mallett and Simms. Let the three young kids battle it out for real this time. One of them will emerge as at least a serviceable starter and after free agency and the draft that's all the 2015 Jets will need to be competitive.

[JETSfaninNE]

I counter any Geno defense with game footage:

 

http://nflbreakdowns.com/geno-smith-vs-bears-092214/

[Sully28]

Add to that the fact that, unless his head is in completely the wrong place, Geno will enter 2015 as an extremely motivated player.  The combination of good coaching (for the first time in his NFL career), solid WRs, experience, and motivation to prove everybody wrong, and Geno could be poised for a very good year.

 

Not saying that it will happen, but things could fall into place for Geno to seriously raise his level of play.  And, if he does that, then we could make another surprise run like in 2009.

 

I agree, without a doubt Geno and the Jets could make a run next year if everything falls into place (rookies provide instant impact, FA signings and trades workout).

[RutgersJetFan]

[RutgersJetFan]

Potential. Panache. He's got. It. All.

 

[The Crusher]

If Geno is the best QB on the Jets after training camp then we just aren't trying.  

[RutgersJetFan]

[JETSfaninNE]

 

I think by this point in the season I blanked out and was just staring at the TV but not actually paying attention.  Did he really hold the ball and turn to run into the endzone?  How the **** does he not know where he is on the field?? Or is that midfield?  Maybe its midfiield but still, throw the damn ball away!

[RutgersJetFan]

First 6 seconds of the game right here. Musta been the weapons.

 

[RutgersJetFan]

I think by this point in the season I blanked out and was just staring at the TV but not actually paying attention.  Did he really hold the ball and turn to run into the endzone?  How the **** does he not know where he is on the field?? Or is that midfield?  Maybe its midfiield but still, throw the damn ball away!

 

Keep in mind that was mid December. It's not like he improved on sh*t like that as the season went on.

[RutgersJetFan]

First 6 seconds of the game right here. Musta been the weapons.

 

 

^^ Also December.

[RutgersJetFan]

Aaaand more December...

 

[shuler82]

so... Simms in '15? 

[RutgersJetFan]

Wanna guess which month this one is from?

 

[RutgersJetFan]

What's the name of that Counting Crows song where he sings about a better year to come?

 

[RSJ]

All I know is every Jets QB under Rex threw the screen pass the exact same way.

[oc_jet]

I counter any Geno defense with game footage:

 

http://nflbreakdowns.com/geno-smith-vs-bears-092214/

 

Ouch! Between this critically damning review of Geno's terrible decision making and RJF's insightful vidz, I hope the light bulb goes on for this guy. One thing for sure, the JETs are going to bring someone with real talent to either compete or take over. If we can see this, then lord knows the Coaches and GM can see it too.

[CrazyCarl40]

You don't go out and trade for a Brandon Marshall and then stick the leagues worst starting QB the last two years in the saddle. If the Jets can find someone to hand it off and not overthrow the entire field, they have a legit chance to make the playoffs. They'll improve the secondary and the offensive line. The rest is up to finding an average QB who won't turn the ball over.

[JETSfaninNE]

I'm seeing a whole truck load of gameplay evidence that Geno sucks and is a terrible decision maker.

 

/thread

 

?

[win4ever]

Geno is going to be on the team, it makes no sense whatsoever to cut him.  However, what are the better options out there?  

 

Bradford?  Guy basically folds like paper everytime he gets hit, and at this point in a major risk.   

 

Cutler?  A headcase everywhere he's been, who couldn't hack it with one of the best WR duos out there (possibly the best) and a certified douche.  

 

Sanchez?  C'mon

 

Foles?  His stats in the system that Kelly runs have to be taken at a discount, especially after the improvement we saw out of Sanchez.  And if you regress those numbers to the tune that Sanchez improved, then him and Geno have very similar ratings.  I think I did the math on some earlier thread. could pull it back up if there needs to be numerical proof.  

 

Fitzpatrick?  It's over. 

 

Moore?  There's a reason the guy hasn't played.  

 

Hoyer?  People were clamoring for Johhny to see this guy benched, and he took a nosedive in the season.

 

Locker?  Possibly, but he's inaccurate, injury prone, and he actually had weapons on offense.  

 

Mallet?  He's played in basically one game in 4 years.

 

The fact of the matter is that, all our options are flawed, so I'm willing to give Geno a shot in a spread offense, because we don't have a better option out there that is cost effective enough to make sense.  If there was actually a good QB available, I'd be all for adding the guy, but there just isn't anyone out there that you can say will be even an average QB with certainty, and then justify the cost to acquire them.   The only real way we'll be getting a QB is through the draft, so it's Geno or someone who is very mediocre as Geno, or draft Mariotta.   

[RutgersJetFan]

Who remembers this one? Geno throwing 3 picks right near the red zone, then getting pulled for Vick. Ahh, but dat potential though!

 

[JETSfaninNE]

Wanna guess which month this one is from?

 

 

I don't know how you can throw a pick and still have a perfect QBR.  this is where the stats rating system is broken.  You shouldn't be able to have a perfect QBR if you turn the ball over.

[RutgersJetFan]

I don't know how you can throw a pick and still have a perfect QBR.  this is where the stats rating system is broken.  You shouldn't be able to have a perfect QBR if you turn the ball over.

 

That gif is from Week 13, also in December. You're thinking of Week 17, which somehow absolved Geno of the whole season for about half the fanbase.

[JETSfaninNE]

Geno is going to be on the team, it makes no sense whatsoever to cut him.  However, what are the better options out there?  

 

Bradford?  Guy basically folds like paper everytime he gets hit, and at this point in a major risk.   

 

Cutler?  A headcase everywhere he's been, who couldn't hack it with one of the best WR duos out there (possibly the best) and a certified douche.  

 

Sanchez?  C'mon

 

Foles?  His stats in the system that Kelly runs have to be taken at a discount, especially after the improvement we saw out of Sanchez.  And if you regress those numbers to the tune that Sanchez improved, then him and Geno have very similar ratings.  I think I did the math on some earlier thread. could pull it back up if there needs to be numerical proof.  

 

Fitzpatrick?  It's over. 

 

Moore?  There's a reason the guy hasn't played.  

 

Hoyer?  People were clamoring for Johhny to see this guy benched, and he took a nosedive in the season.

 

Locker?  Possibly, but he's inaccurate, injury prone, and he actually had weapons on offense.  

 

Mallet?  He's played in basically one game in 4 years.

 

The fact of the matter is that, all our options are flawed, so I'm willing to give Geno a shot in a spread offense, because we don't have a better option out there that is cost effective enough to make sense.  If there was actually a good QB available, I'd be all for adding the guy, but there just isn't anyone out there that you can say will be even an average QB with certainty, and then justify the cost to acquire them.   The only real way we'll be getting a QB is through the draft, so it's Geno or someone who is very mediocre as Geno, or draft Mariotta.   

 

Every QB on this list is a  step up from Geno. Some more than others, but all of the are.  I hate to say it, I'm usually the last guy to give up on players but I truly think every single option you provided is an upgrade to Geno. (If our goal is to be competitive while looking for our franchise QB)  If you can provide clips of any of these QBs doing the boneheaded sh*t Geno has done with the ball then maybe I'll agree some of them aren't as much better than Geno then I'm making it out to be.  But each one of those guys you provided are much closer to the Dalton line then Geno will ever be imo.

 

And I have no issue saying this although some may lynch me:

 

Sanchez is 10x better than Geno Smith.  If he wasn't attached to the butt fumble I would welcome him back this year. Unfotunately thats a nightmare that will haunt him till the end of time.