RutgersJetFan Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Before last night, I never thought I'd see the words "brilliant display of baserunning" and Daniel Murphy in the same sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Now, let’s assume Ethier lets it drop. Ethier lets it drop, the count runs 0-2 to d’Arnaud, and runners are still on first and third with one out. In this situation, Murphy is no longer expected to score, because, in an 0-2 count, Greinke will likely retire d’Arnaud, and as long as d’Arnaud makes a non-advancing out, the Mets’ chances of scoring a run with runners on first-and-third plummets from 7-out-of-10 with one out, to 3-out-of-10 with two outs, due largely to the elimination of the potential sacrifice fly. This is kind of where I stood with that one. With how heavily LA relies on metrics, you'd think the count would matter that much in that situation and be at the forefront of the fielders. I still say he should have let it drop. "You have to take the out" is too cliche, situations matter and in a tight playoff game you play the odds rather than handing them your opponent the run. Take into account how d'Arnaud had been hitting in this series against Kershaw and Greinke and I say you roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Before last night, I never thought I'd see the words "brilliant display of baserunning" and Daniel Murphy in the same sentence. making bone head plays on the basepaths - all is forgiven Murph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyHector Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 This is kind of where I stood with that one. With how heavily LA relies on metrics, you'd think the count would matter that much in that situation and be at the forefront of the fielders. I still say he should have let it drop. "You have to take the out" is too cliche, situations matter and in a tight playoff game you play the odds rather than handing them your opponent the run. Take into account how d'Arnaud had been hitting in this series against Kershaw and Greinke and I say you roll the dice. My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much. He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game. Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out. It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Heading to the NYCWFF, eh? I'm going to be over at the Grand Tasting with my boys Wally Szczerbiak and Speedy Claxton. Maybe we can get a 3v3 game going. I'd dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Just convinced the gf. We are going to game 1!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much. He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game. Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out. It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play. With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Not sure you get how this works. They're analyzing discrete events to show how they affect the outcome of the game, or rather, how they alter the probability of the possible outcomes. Nobody is suggesting that they have some uber nerd crystal ball that allows them to see into the future. If Familia hits a 3-run homer after Mattingly chose to walk Flores in the 9th, does that make it a bad decision? Thing is, they attempt to know the outcome of the game by statistics and probabilities. Doesn't work that way. Know way an OF is even going to process that that way, in that instance. Pure riduculousness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is. With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much. He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game. Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out. It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play. I would ask you to show me ONE example, ONE of that strategy, working before the 6th inning, in mlb history. Show me one. I would be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Oy vey. Dierking gonna Dierking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeShelter Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The 30 for 30 that they did on him was very good. There were 7 other fans that went for that ball, he just happened to be the guy that it got closest to. The ordeal that guy went through that evening had to be nothing short of terrifying. Beers thrown on him, his life threatened, the guy had to move. The sh*ttiest part about it is that he was there with 3 friends, and they just left him to fend for himself with stadium staff after the game. Some friends. I'd be shocked if they hadn't already extended some sort of invite for the NLDS. He's gotten opening day offers multiple times. From what his agent says he just wants to be left alone and not known for this anymore. I think security isolated him and took charge/responsibility of getting him home so the friends went separately and probably on the advice of security for their own safety. Stilli- a very f'd up situation of how that guys life was ruined due to fans taking things too far. To his credit he was pretty calm in the months and years after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeShelter Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Daniel Murphy has very much a feel of what Ray Knight did with the Mets '86 run. Not a guy that gets all of the acclaim, but a guy who is gritty and battles through. Like Knight, Murphy is a free agent. I hope like Knight, Murphy gets to be an MVP. I know he will not be a Met next year, but I do admire what he has done for this team. I'd hate to see him go. Francesa was saying Sandy doesn't consider him in their long term plan at 2B and also that Cespedes is not his type of player....high on base pct...yada, yada , yada. I really consider Murphy to be a core piece of the team leadership wise but with a staff like ours Sandy is probably correct in going after a superior defensive 2nd Baseman. Would love to see him stay with us on a 3 or 4 year deal and play all over (1st, 2nd, 3rd) while getting 450 AB's a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afosomf Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 why isnt Noah starting game 1, why start behind the 8 ball with harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 why isnt Noah starting game 1, why start behind the 8 ball with harvey because then you don't have Matz pitching in Wrigley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeShelter Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 why isnt Noah starting game 1, why start behind the 8 ball with harvey Noah cannot start game 1 (and possibly game two) after all the times he got up in the pen Thursday in addition to throwing his one inning. Cubbies have a loaded line-up that K's a lot so it will be an interesting series from a "their strength versus ours" perspective. The Cubs SP's are not getting enough hype leading into the series in my opinion. At the same time their line-up is talked about as if far superior than the Mets which is interesting considering the stats the Mets put up after the Cespedes deal. Harvey in games one and five.....deGrom in games three and seven is how Terry will likely lay it out. We need Wright to come out of his coma. He's been too aggressive at the plate. A Duda sighting would also be nice. We miss the option of Uribe's bat. Tonight's game I'd like to see Terry try and take advantage of Lester's issue of throwing over to 1st with runners on. Should be a fun series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Mattingly will be out as manger -our service to the LA region the Yankees should hire him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 the Yankees should hire him. You do not like Girardi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 why isnt Noah starting game 1, why start behind the 8 ball with harvey Because he threw 100 pitches warming up on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 the Yankees should hire him. I have caught quite a bit of Dodger games the past few years and honestly that is the last thing you want. He's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afosomf Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Because he threw 100 pitches warming up on Thursday. good reason lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Noah cannot start game 1 (and possibly game two) after all the times he got up in the pen Thursday in addition to throwing his one inning. Cubbies have a loaded line-up that K's a lot so it will be an interesting series from a "their strength versus ours" perspective. The Cubs SP's are not getting enough hype leading into the series in my opinion. At the same time their line-up is talked about as if far superior than the Mets which is interesting considering the stats the Mets put up after the Cespedes deal. Harvey in games one and five.....deGrom in games three and seven is how Terry will likely lay it out. We need Wright to come out of his coma. He's been too aggressive at the plate. A Duda sighting would also be nice. We miss the option of Uribe's bat. Tonight's game I'd like to see Terry try and take advantage of Lester's issue of throwing over to 1st with runners on. Should be a fun series. Big story yesterday when all the dust settled was how tired Thor was. He's a gametime decision for game 2 now and if he can't throw he'd go game 4. I'm torn on this one, on the one hand I think if he can't go, it puts us in as heavy favorites for both games 3 and 4, but it also means he'll only get one start this series. Puts a lot more pressure on Harvey too, he has to pitch two quality games if this is how it goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 good reason lol This has been the story of the season for the Mets. The chink in the armor of this rotation has been its youth; which has been cause for 6-man rotations, constant spot-starts by long relief pitchers...etc. Harvey isn't the only one that has struggled with fatigue. Thor was dog-tired towards the end of the season and they had to give him almost two weeks off because of it. Even deGrom got a week off in September. As much as the Mets are going for it this year, they have to be some degree of reasonable if someone's arm is fatigued. These guys are the future of the franchise and they've already been plagued with Tommy John surgeries enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Gilmartin replacing Goedell. Odd that he wasn't on the NLDS roster considering how much Collins leaned on him in September and the fact that Goedell sucks donkey balls. Mets’ NLCS Roster Position Players (14) Pitching Staff (11) Starters (8) Bench (6) Rotation (4) Bullpen (7) Travis d’Arnaud Kelly Johnson Jacob deGrom Jeurys Familia Lucas Duda Kevin Plawecki Noah Syndergaard Tyler Clippard Daniel Murphy Wilmer Flores Matt Harvey Addison Reed Matt Reynolds Michael Conforto Steven Matz Bartolo Colon David Wright Juan Lagares Jon Niese Michael Cuddyer Kirk Nieuwenhuis Hansel Robles Curtis Granderson Sean Gilmartin Yoenis Cespedes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Back to the future 2 b-ches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Back to the future 2 b-ches Back to the Yankee thread, front-running troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Back to the Yankee thread, front-running troll. I hope the Cubs win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hope the Cubs win I hope a collie bites you in the taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hope the Cubs win I hope someone stabs you in the face with a soldering iron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Curtis Granderson, RF David Wright, 3B Daniel Murphy, 2B Yoenis Cespedes, LF Travis d’Arnaud, C Cuddyer, 1B Wilmer Flores, SS Juan Lagares, CF Matt Harvey, RHP Had a feeling he'd be starting Cuddyer over Duda after the way Game 5 played out. I'm sure Collins might take some heat for sacrificing Conforto's bat again, but Lagares has been hitting this postseason and from what I remember earlier in the year he had some good ABs against Lester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I have caught quite a bit of Dodger games the past few years and honestly that is the last thing you want. He's terrible. I understand the Yank fan/Mattingly love. But big red flag-Puig is a tremendous talent. Understand he can be a total pain in the ass, but Mattingly's failure to figure it out is a really bad omen . Appears Mattingly is more worried about things off the field (and really minor things) instead of putting Puig in the lineup and harnessing his bat. The whole Showalter old school thing only goes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I understand the Yank fan/Mattingly love. But big red flag-Puig is a tremendous talent. Understand he can be a total pain in the ass, but Mattingly's failure to figure it out is a really bad omen . Appears Mattingly is more worried about things off the field (and really minor things) instead of putting Puig in the lineup and harnessing his bat. The whole Showalter old school thing only goes so far. Maybe he's just better suited for AL ball? The only guy I've seen that's been worse with the double switch was Willie Randolph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 did bartolo colon swallow a basketball ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowlesMovement Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hope the Cubs win A Bills and Yankees fan trolling Mets fans on a Jets forum........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 did bartolo colon swallow a basketball ? Every time he gets called into a game, looks like they've interrupted him in the middle of eating a 12 pound rib roast by himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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