Jump to content
Want to remove all ads? ×

Cimini: Dante Fowler a Fit For the Jets

flgreen

By flgreen
in NY Jets Forum

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 150
  • Created
  • Last Reply
cant wait

cant wait

Posted
Posted

Fowler is more Ingram than Dupree is. Perry, like Beasley, comes from a soft school with soft players who are either soft or softer - Leinart being the softest. Injuries have been a factor,  but he also seems to be an a$$hole:

 

 

Not exactly fair, matthews is a beast (who I think compares the best with beasley) and cushing when healthy is as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

Posted
Posted

I'll pass.

 

I'm not going to hold the game against him.  The entire team took a sh*t that day.  Happens.  They got throttle in that game.

Then what I'll do is I'll give you some more when I can. Its super late here on my side of the planet but I'll make sure to provide you with some other games. 

 

 

That Alabama game was the game where he got pancaked though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
T0mShane

T0mShane

Posted
Posted

frank clark could be a steal in the 7th round if they think he's not batsh*t crazy. interesting ray is not on this list?

Just saw an excerpt where Clark was being interviewed about his domestic violence incident. Apparently he was smiling while recounting how the woman escalated the situation to a point it "didn't need to go to," then his agent hustled him out of the room.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SenorGato

SenorGato

Posted
Posted

SackSEER Projection: 21.7 Sacks through Year 5

SackSEER Rating: 43.3%

Dante Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER thinks that Fowler is an excellent candidate to join Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss, and Jermaine Cunningham in the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers. There does not seem to be anything magical about Florida that causes their edge rushers to bust -- Harvey, Moss, and Cunningham each had poor SackSEER projections, and Fowler fits the same mold. Fowler recorded only 14.5 sacks during his entire three-year career; that's only 2.5 more than Vic Beasley recorded in his senior year alone. Fowler had a nice 4.60-second 40-yard dash, but he performed poorly on the vertical jump, the broad jump, and the three-cone, which are equally important, but often overlooked.

Note that many scouting reports on Fowler emphasize his versatility, as he is also prized for his ability to set the edge against the run and drop into coverage. (Yesterday's Futures column by Matt Waldman gives some good examples of why Fowler is not just an edge rusher.) SackSEER is only projecting his pass-rushing performance in the NFL, so perhaps he is a more valuable player than this forecast would indicate. However, you may remember another recent prospect who was rated as mediocre by SackSEER despite his overall versatility: Dion Jordan.

Meeeeeh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bealeb319

bealeb319

Posted
Posted

Where did you get that info. 

thats crazy if thats true, because I do remember a few drops from him that really stood out. 

 

Look up their targets / receptions than divide their receptions by the times they were targeted (obviously its not flawless as the QBs can throw uncatchable balls) I just thought it was interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JustInFudge

JustInFudge

Posted
Posted

Then what I'll do is I'll give you some more when I can. Its super late here on my side of the planet but I'll make sure to provide you with some other games. 

 

 

That Alabama game was the game where he got pancaked though. 

 

He got pancaked?  Well then, no great defender has ever been pancaked...so, pass? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

Posted
Posted

He got pancaked?  Well then, no great defender has ever been pancaked...so, pass? 

I generally stated that the guy disappears in games, you said he didnt. Im saying that when it comes to the run game (and coverage) that the guy isn't an impact player. I've seen him get stuck on blocks, get pancaked (in one game) and over pursue. 

 

 

This counts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JustInFudge

JustInFudge

Posted
Posted

I generally stated that the guy disappears in games, you said he didnt. Im saying that when it comes to the run game (and coverage) that the guy isn't an impact player. I've seen him get stuck on blocks, get pancaked (in one game) and over pursue.

This counts.

You're wrong. It's ok. I still love you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nycdan

nycdan

Posted
Posted

Interesting Statistic:

Amaro caught roughly 71% of passes thrown to him last season just about the same as Cobb, Gronk caught 64%, Grahm 68%, Calvin Johnson 55%, Aj Green 59%, Julio Jones 63% OBJ 70% list goes on, point being Amaro may not have been a 1,000 yard double digit touchdown stud last year but we should be excited to see how he develops as he has a decent set of hands.

 

And he caught them from Geno so you really should apply a 10% bonus factor to his numbers, making them even better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
T0mShane

T0mShane

Posted
Posted

VIC BEASLEY: CANNON WITH POWER AND MATURITY

I think Beasley is the most well-rounded, mature edge rusher in the draft.

Edge rushing is about more than the ability to generate an untouched pressure by beating the offensive tackle around the corner. That's a critical skill to have, of course. If you can't translate speed and explosiveness well enough to make offensive linemen nervous or force the offense to account for you with more than one blocker, you're really not an edge rusher.

But offenses can account for players who are one-trick edge rushing ponies. What Beasley has shown on tape is the ability to win on the edge, win with a hard inside-to-outside move and a hard outside to inside move. All of those are setup by an elite and explosive first two-three steps. There's some speed to power in his game and even a spin move sprinkled in. It can take just one successful primary move and one successful counter move to wreak havoc in the pocket. Beasley may be successful with multiple counters. If he translates, he's essentially matchup independent.

He's more of a get-skinny-and-disrupt run defender, so I see him as a weak side player primarily (either 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB). I'd like to see Beasley stay off the ground more by improving his footwork on pure edge rushes and be a more violent finisher at the quarterback.

I don't see Beasley getting out of the top five.

Before moving on to Gregory, Dupree and the rest, a quick note on some new and exciting metrics in the draft community:

FORCE, SPARQ, and SPIDERWEBS: USING METRICS TO COMPARE EDGE ATHLETICISM

I always wonder if I'm missing something as a January-April tape watcher.

Is this player dominating against vastly inferior competition? How does this player's athleticism compare to prospects before him? Bottom line: Will what I'm seeing on tape -- athletically and technically -- translate to the bigger, stronger, faster NFL game?

I've been excited to see newer, compelling ways to break down a player's combine and pro day testing. And while I'm firmly in the camp that some players will never translate their athleticism into on-field football skills, the converse is also true: If a player does not have a baseline level of athleticism, a high motor and precise technique may not be enough to overcome his relative lack of athleticism.

Here is one example of a mathematical model to show where edge players fall on the athletic spectrum.

#FORCE

Developed by Justis Mosqueda, the term #ForcePlayer seeks to identify the combination of athletic traits that make an edge rusher most likely to succeed. Mosqueda's hypothesis is based in simple physics, i.e. F = ma. Force = mass x accleration. Elite edge rushers must have an elite combination of explosive metrics but must also have good density.

Sounds simple and intuitive, right? But look at how Mosqueda's metric split players in recent seasons and you wonder if evaluators see things on tape that may not translate to the NFL.

What's also striking to me -- #ForcePlayer or not, there aren't many edge rushing hits, especially after the second round.

Check out Mosqueda's #ForcePlayers Twitter feed and a soon-to-come feature at Rotoworld for a full discussion of the 2015 #ForcePlayers. Of the consensus top edge rushers I'm profiling, Vic Beasley, Randy Gregory and Bud Dupree make the cut. Dante Fowler and Shane Ray do not.

For much more on the evolution of Mosqueda's work, check out this extended piece on DraftBreakdown. For the latest on this year's #ForcePlayers and discussion, follow him @JuMosq and @forceplayers. And I cannot recommend his discussion with Josh Norris' podcast enough.

Zach Whitman's reverse engineering of SPARQ scores and Marcus Armstrong's unique visual presentation of combine and pro day results are also great ways to compare athleticism. They're profiled in the section on draft resources at the end of the main feature.

RANDY GREGORY: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE

Randy Gregory isn't the next Optimus Prime, but I'm reminded of the Transformers commercials of the 1980s when I try to reconcile what I see on film with the size and power concerns I hear on him.

I get those concerns. He measured 6-5 and 235 pounds. He was coached to read and react at the snap of the ball at Nebraska and there aren't many snaps where you see Gregory's full potential shine through. In fact, if you only watch a cutup or two of Gregory, you could easily be left with the impression that Gregory is the next Aaron Maybin.

He's not.

First, the metrics. His vertical jump (82nd percentile amond defensive ends in recent years per mockdraftable.com) and broad jump (94th percentile) demonstrate well above average explosiveness. His short shuttle (92nd percentile) and three cone drill (99th percentile). 24 reps on the bench isn't shabby either.

If you search all of the Nebraska cutups for clear passing down reps -- third and long in particular -- you'll see the first step his jumps suggest he should have. You'll see the quick footwork his cone times suggest he should have. It's not perfect. I really don't see a pure edge rush yet, but his heavy hands and footwork give him inside-out and outside-in moves and combination rushes that develop extremely quickly.

There's a bust risk here, but I think he'll translate well as a weak side edge player.

BUD DUPREE: ATHLETICISM VS TECHNIQUE

Dupree is a bit of an enigma to me.

His jumps are unparalled. A vertical leap of 42 inches and a broad jump of 11-6 are frighteningly impressive. On tape his first step is laughably quick. His second and third step are blurry, even at half speed. It's a level of explosiveness that cannot be taught.

And it comes in a 6-4, 270 pound package.

But I watched every Kentucky defensive cutup I could find. On nearly every play in which Dupree destroyed an offensive tackle with his early explosiveness, he didn't get near the quarterback due to poor technique. He struggled terribly to dip his shoulder and use the proper footwork to turn the corner. There were times where he was even with the offensive tackle by his second step but wasn't moving toward the pocket until ten yards past the line of scrimmage.

I reached out on Twitter and asked, "Is edge rushing technique a learnable skill?" Two responses resonated with me.

First, Ryan Riddle, a successful former edge rusher, answered my question with one of his own. "Can you be taught to moonwalk respectably?" That's a variation of a something I use every day in lots of situations daily -- as a parent, as a coach, and mostly importantly as a pediatrician trying to decide whether a toddler has development delays -- "Can he?" or "Will he?" If your child cannot physically form words due to problem with his anatomy or because he has a larger issue like autism, there's a lot of work to be done to improve his speech. If your child has everything she needs to speak well and won't, you may see her blossom in another 3-6 months with continued teaching and encouragement. I don't know which category fits Dupree.

Second, Alen Dumonjic, who is one of the most underrated and underappreciated writers in the football industry, told me he likes to look at a player's feet and ankles. If a player can't get them turned, it's a sign their frame and joints may not support the flexibility needed to pull off a successful pure edge rush. That's not athleticism necessarily, but I wonder if it can be measured in the cone drills.

Dupree's short shuttle was 4.47. His three cone time was 7.49. That short shuttle time is in the 34th percentile. The three cone time is around the 10th percentile. And the three cone drill involves a turn.

Dupree is a #ForcePlayer (see sidebar) on the strength of his impressive jump times and size. I'd bet on him to be successful in the NFL. Even if he never learns an elite edge rush, his first steps will set up a speed-to-power move and other counter moves he can win with.

Whatever happens, he's going to be one of the most interesting edge rushers to track in years.

To see video examples of these impressive attributes and why I'm concerned, check out this film room hangout with Matt Waldman.

DANTE FOWLER: BAD INTENTIONS

I'm a fan of defensive football. I love seeing the blur that is Bud Dupree. I get why Nebraska wants Randy Gregory to play read and react. (Well, not really.) But what I love most is watching football players with bad intentions.

Fowler's tape is full of bad intentions. He never, and I mean never, quits on a play. It's underlined and typed throughout my notes. He knocked a pulling offensive lineman out cold on a run play with only two steps to gather himself. Most of his pass rush successes are punctuated with a wince-inducing chop. He's the most violent finisher in this class.

Unfortunately, his film (and testing results) suggest he's a straight line player with average explosiveness. His timed dashes are 90th percentile or better. His jumps (i.e. explosiveness) are 40th percentile and below. His lateral agility is only slightly above average overall (shuttle is much better than cone). He was fairly easily handled by La'el Collins, albeit in a limited sample.

I'm hearing comparisons to Von Miller (which is the comp du jour this year) and Khalil Mack. I don't see that level of athleticism here. Miller is a total freak -- don't forget what Miller was before his ACL injury and may be again this year. Mack is significantly more athletic and shined in college against his toughest competition.

What I see here is somewhere in the Mack --- Dont'a Hightower continuum. And I don't see that as a knock on Fowler. On that continuum lies a player who can defend the run well, won't hurt you in coverage and can rush the passer effectively. But I don't know if he's a true edge player in the Miller-Mack sense. I think he's more of a 4-3 SLB who you can move around on nickel downs and try to exploit matchups.

In short, I believe Fowler is the opposite of Dupree: A fascinating case study on whether just enough athleticism and a whole lot of football player is enough to make an elite edge player.

SHANE RAY: WHICH ONE OF THESE IS NOT LIKE THE OTHER?

First, Transformers and now Sesame Street. I'm a pediatrician. Deal with it.

Ray's pro day testing knocked him out of most discussions of the elite pass rushers, but he's still being mocked as a first round target in many places. Put on some of Ray's greatest hits and there's a lot to like. If he gets off the ball quickly or gets into a blocker with good hand placement, he's successful. There's some maturity to his pass rush moves and his motor is well above-average.

But there are red flags everywhere. They include a measure of inconsistency on tape, which had me looking forward to his pro day to find out if I was watching a player who needed to clean up his technique and could thrive in a year or two or a player who may too limited to have success without a lot of help.

I'll preach size doesn't matter every season, but it matters if you're short (6-2) and relatively slight (245) AND are missing some critical athletic traits. Ray has a 24th percentile shuttle and a 3rd percentile cone time. The cone time is so far at the end of the bell curve, it's even worse than the percentile suggests. His broad jump is 79th percentile, but a 44th percentile vertical. His ten yard dash is 35th percentile. He's a below average athlete for the NFL.

This combination of size and athleticism should worry any NFL evaluator. Compare Ray to the other two players in this group with "size" concerns.

Name HT WT 10-YD SHUTTLE 3-CONE VERT BROAD

Vic Beasley 6-3 246 1.59 4.15 6.91 41 10-10

Randy Gregory 6-5 235 1.60 4.16 6.79 36.5 10-5

Shane Ray 6-3 245 1.65 4.52 7.70 33 10-0

All I needed to know I learned on Sesame Street.

Where Ray did shine was in a handful of reps he saw at 3-technique. That's not a place a 245 pound player will thrive in the NFL, but the first step and quick hands and footwork played better against big SEC guards than they did more athletic tackles. I'm not sure this is a good thing.

Finally, at the Senior Bowl in January, multiple scouts told me they liked his linemate Markus Golden better than they did Ray. Golden is a nice player, but he didn't stand out much in Mobile and he's not exactly screaming up the draft boards now.

None of this means Ray can't evolve into a solid rotational player or even more. But I don't see a promising comp for him on the list of non-#ForcePlayers who were successful in spite of their genetics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JustInFudge

JustInFudge

Posted
Posted

^^^^ Pretty much exactly how I've described Fowler.  "He beats up OLmen"....said in my synopsis of him.  Literally knocked a Guard out in college.  Can play a ton of positions, solid vs. the run, not sure he'll ever be an elite pass rusher but should be good enough and bring the total package. 

 

 

TAKE THAT VILLAIN! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
T0mShane

T0mShane

Posted
Posted

^^^^ Pretty much exactly how I've described Fowler. "He beats up OLmen"....said in my synopsis of him. Literally knocked a Guard out in college. Can play a ton of positions, solid vs. the run, not sure he'll ever be an elite pass rusher but should be good enough and bring the total package.

TAKE THAT VILLAIN! :)

Plus, a Ray Lewis-type leader from what you hear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cant wait

cant wait

Posted
Posted

^^^^ Pretty much exactly how I've described Fowler. "He beats up OLmen"....said in my synopsis of him. Literally knocked a Guard out in college. Can play a ton of positions, solid vs. the run, not sure he'll ever be an elite pass rusher but should be good enough and bring the total package.

TAKE THAT VILLAIN! :)

I'd like to do better than "solid against the run" with #6

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BroadwayJets

BroadwayJets

Posted
Posted

Jumped on this thread late, wish I wouldn't have. Our pick at 6 should be Fowler, Collins, Winston, Dupree or trade back.

 

Vic Beasley is strictly a pass rusher. A liability in every other facet. Granted, his acceleration is incredible. THis much is a fact. I think what everyone should realize is that averaging 3 tackles a game at the collegiate level is not going to translate well in the pros. I don't think he'll be a bust, but he's definitely going to need a year or two, or three, to get up to the NFL level. Even then he'll only be a pass rusher. I don't want that production at 6. I want a player to come in and start at a high-level. La'el Collins is crazy athletic, and most likely a long-term solution at LT. Might play guard this year but Brick is getting old and he's still carrying a large contract. Collins makes him expendable. 

 

Back to OLBs, Fowler is the best OLB in the draft. He won't be there at 6, but it's nice to dream. A versatile disruptive force that can perform from anywhere on the field. Perfect for Bowles. Can stop the run, can pass rush effectively (will need a learning curve too), but ultimately the best OLB in this draft. Followed by Fowler is Dupree. Dupree may be better than Fowler in the Pros from day 1. It almost seems like he's not trying and is an absolute monster. He has a great ability to set the edge in run defense, and he's really strong and often throws tackles around, but he's raw. His value is based on how much more he can develop.

 

I don't think there's an immediate force as a pass rusher in this draft, but I think there's a possibility of two in the future. 

 

(PS: Frank Clark just had his domestic violence charges reduced to disorderly conduct, via PFT)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cant wait

cant wait

Posted
Posted

Jumped on this thread late, wish I wouldn't have. Our pick at 6 should be Fowler, Collins, Winston, Dupree or trade back.

Vic Beasley is strictly a pass rusher. A liability in every other facet. Granted, his acceleration is incredible. THis much is a fact. I think what everyone should realize is that averaging 3 tackles a game at the collegiate level is not going to translate well in the pros. I don't think he'll be a bust, but he's definitely going to need a year or two, or three, to get up to the NFL level. Even then he'll only be a pass rusher. I don't want that production at 6. I want a player to come in and start at a high-level. La'el Collins is crazy athletic, and most likely a long-term solution at LT. Might play guard this year but Brick is getting old and he's still carrying a large contract. Collins makes him expendable.

Back to OLBs, Fowler is the best OLB in the draft. He won't be there at 6, but it's nice to dream. A versatile disruptive force that can perform from anywhere on the field. Perfect for Bowles. Can stop the run, can pass rush effectively (will need a learning curve too), but ultimately the best OLB in this draft. Followed by Fowler is Dupree. Dupree may be better than Fowler in the Pros from day 1. It almost seems like he's not trying and is an absolute monster. He has a great ability to set the edge in run defense, and he's really strong and often throws tackles around, but he's raw. His value is based on how much more he can develop.

I don't think there's an immediate force as a pass rusher in this draft, but I think there's a possibility of two in the future.

(PS: Frank Clark just had his domestic violence charges reduced to disorderly conduct, via PFT)

Beasley had 90 tackles, 52 TFL & 9 PD at Clemson. How is he strictly just a pass rusher?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company

Site Sponsor

MetLife Stadium Tailgate

NY Jets Podcast

NY Jets Podcast

DMCA Page

  • -- DMCA Page
    • ×
    ×
    • Create New...