Fitz to start (I hope)

[LIJetsFan]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/04/14/receiver-values-amish-powered-jets/

 

Receiver Values: Amish-Powered Jets

Pat Thorman | April 14, 2015

 

The Jets popped onto the radar with their signing of Stevan Ridley, although it’s not their increasingly redundant backfield that’s intriguing. More interesting is a passing offense that not only added a major receiving weapon but is virtually guaranteed to feature improved quarterbacking.

 

Last offseason, I detailed why Ryan Fitzpatrick was too-lightly regarded, not only for what he brought to the table himself, but because he’d been more than adequate in facilitating receiver success. But even if you do still fear the beard, he provides a performance baseline that third-year passer Geno Smith must match if he wants to continue starting.

 

2014 Pass Gm Grade (Rk) QB Rating (Rk) Yards/Att. (Rk) TD : INT (Rk)

 

G. Smith -16.0 (38th) 77.5 (38th) 6.9 (35th) 1.0 : 1 (39th)

 

M. Vick -18.0 (44th) 68.3 (45th) 5.0 (48th) 1.5 : 1 (28th)

 

R. Fitzpatrick +7.9 (11th) 95.3 (11th) 8.0 (6th) 2.1 : 1 (16th)

 

- 48 qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 100 snaps)

 

Clearly there’s nowhere to go but up for New York’s passing game. Even if well-respected offensive coordinator Chan Gailey wasn’t taking over, the fact that Rex Ryan’s regime shuffled off to Buffalo is addition by subtraction. Not only had he failed at developing passers in six years with the Jets, in recent seasons, Ryan put on a clinic in how to jerk quarterbacks around.

 

Just last year, Rex (Rex ?? LIJetsfan) dropped perennial square peg Percy Harvin into New York’s offense and promptly yanked Smith when he predictably struggled. Ryan barely allowed him to attempt passes in his next start a month later. Then during the final four weeks, Smith impressively tied Cam Newton for PFF’s sixth-best passing grade (+5.0) while equaling Teddy Bridgewater’s league-high yards per attempt mark (9.2).

 

It’s nearly impossible to predict the direction of a quarterback who, in the same season, achieved both a perfect single-game passer rating of 158.3 and a “perfect” zero. Even if Smith again begins September with positive results, few will feel confident that he’ll end it in the same manner.

 

Yet for the fantasy value of New York’s pass catchers, it doesn’t really matter. And, at least in the short term, it’s creating wide receiver value because a bearded safety net is in place.

 

Chances are the Jets won’t draft a quarterback of note. New front office regimes often enjoy a honeymoon season while waiting to “start the clock” on their tenure. They get a pass while working with incumbent passers to see if they’re salvageable. Since the Jets have a functional veteran and a young quarterback who has flashed promise, bet on New York spending their early picks elsewhere.

 

One change we can bank on is an offensive makeover under Chan Gailey. According to Mike Clay’s breakdown of offensive coordinator turnover, Jets receivers will benefit from a far more balanced offense as well as a heavy emphasis on three-receiver sets. Gailey employed a third wideout on 85 percent of snaps during his last stop in Buffalo, which severely outpaced the league average rate at the time (61 percent). Fitzpatrick is well-versed in this spread attack.

 

Last season’s profile of the Amish Rifle includes the years when Gailey was his coordinator (2010–2012). Fitzpatrick’s 2014 season shows how much he’s improved since then. Each mark listed below represent career highs —in most cases by a significant margin—and that includes his best efforts from three seasons with Gailey. His ranking among 39 qualifying quarterbacks from last year is also noted.

 

2014 (Rank) Overall Grd Passing Grd Yards/Att TD/INT TD% QB Rating

 

Fitzpatrick +8.8 (12th) +7.9 (11th) 8.0 (5th) 2.13 (13th) 5.5 (6th) 95.3 (9th)

 

Last year, DeAndre Hopkins was the seventh-highest scoring fantasy wideout in both standard and PPR leagues during the 11 weeks that Fitzpatrick played full games. With no FitzMagic, he was the 62nd-best wideout (58th in PPR). Hopkins scored 1.74 fantasy points per target with Fitzpatrick and 0.53 without him. Andre Johnson’spoints per target (0.80 with, and 0.74 without) remained unaffected.

 

An interesting note from Fitzpatrick’s time with Gailey is, in their first season together, he tied for the second-highest deep ball percentage out of 24 qualifying passers. During the next two years, however, he ranked 19th (out of 20), and 22nd (out of 23). It’s possible Gailey reigned in Fitzpatrick’s downfield attempts because his accuracy percentage stunk (18th, 19th, and 23rd, respectively), or perhaps it was due to their main deep threat, Lee Evans, departing for Baltimore.

 

Either way, it’s encouraging that Fitzpatrick ranked second out of 38 quarterbacks last year in deep ball accuracy percentage (52.6 percent). Eric Decker can undoubtedly stretch the field, but was held back by hamstring woes and Smith’s woeful downfield accuracy (30 percent; 35th). At the very least, we can expect Decker’s production on deep balls to tick back up, even if Fitzpatrick’s accuracy regresses.

 

Decker actually saw a higher percentage of catchable targets last year (74.6) than all but seven 100-target wideouts (36 total), and none of them were within a full yard of his 11.5 average depth of target (aDOT). Most ran far shorter routes. While that seems to indicate that Decker enjoyed accurate quarterbacking, a receiver’s work plays a key role in what makes a catchable ball.

Smith’s Accuracy Percentage ranked 26th out of 39 qualifying passers, and the collective percentage of catchable targets that his other wideouts saw was 58.7—well below Decker’s mark. This illustrates both the inconsistent accuracy that Decker dealt with, as well as hints at the ineptitude of Smith’s “supporting” cast outside of his top wideout. All of the Jets ships will be lifted by a rising tide in 2015.

 

A typically less-than-100-percent Decker still managed to qualify as the 10th-highest scoring fantasy wideout during the 11 weeks that he ran at least 25 routes. Now that Brandon Marshall is joining the receiving corps, the worry is Decker’s target share will diminish. Even if that’s the case, New York will actually throw the ball under Gailey, and more team targets will mitigate Decker’s shrunken slice of the passing pie.

 

Marshall, whose slot percentage last season reached 49.2 percent, saw that mark rise for the third straight season. While Jeremy Kerley has been New York’s primary slot receiver (78.2 percent of snaps in 2014), one of Gailey’s strengths is creating advantageous matchups with his spread offense. It’s a safe bet that Marshall will have ample opportunity to use his size against smaller slot defenders.

 

Marshall’s ADP in MFL10s is slipping to back-end WR2 territory, and he’s being drafted in the Golden Tate,Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson area. Last season, he was the 14th-highest scoring fantasy wideout during the 12 weeks that he played a majority of snaps, albeit in a Marc Trestman offense. It was a disappointment relative to his ADP (mid-WR1), but far from a meager scoring pace.

 

Unlike Decker, Marshall’s equity is likely dependent on his ADP sinking a little more, although it’s arguably fair where it currently sits. On the other hand, Decker represents a clear bargain with an ADP that is hovering around the 30th wideout chosen, and he often slips further in MFL10s. Both receivers, and those who roster them, will benefit from improved quarterbacking from Geno Smith—or his Amish-powered backup plan.

[jack48]

Amish Rifle?  Oxymoron, no?

[section314]

Amish Rifle?  Oxymoron, no?

 

Geno Smith NFL QB?  Definitely.

[jgb]

People who think geno should start are basing that thought on hope. In real world that is not a strategy. There is no universe except a delusional alternate one where geno should be taking snaps ahead of ryan fitzpatrick.

[Il Mostro]

People who think geno should start are basing that thought on hope. In real world that is not a strategy. There is no universe except a delusional alternate one where geno should be taking snaps ahead of ryan fitzpatrick.

 

 

Says you.  Hope is the single peg the Geno apologists hang their hats on.   

 

[JohnnyLV]

People who think geno should start are basing that thought on hope. In real world that is not a strategy. There is no universe except a delusional alternate one where geno should be taking snaps ahead of ryan fitzpatrick.

 

Horsebleep. We know that Fitz is at best a backup, We know that Geno was in the most toxic environment he could be in to develop under Rex so the reality is we do not yet really know what we truly have in Geno. He may suck, or he may develop into that guy, Playing Fitz is useless. Want to bring in another starter through the draft? Fine. But Fitz is a regressive move. The team does not progress with him. It is a way to stay mediocre. Geno has flourished the last two seasons when dickhead Ryan stopped meddling with the offense after he gave up on the season. Let's see what Geno can do under a real offensive coordinator free of the destructive meddling of blowhard Rex,

[New York Mick]

Horsebleep. We know that Fitz is at best a backup, We know that Geno was in the most toxic environment he could be in to develop under Rex so the reality is we do not yet really know what we truly have in Geno. He may suck, or he may develop into that guy, Playing Fitz is useless. Want to bring in another starter through the draft? Fine. But Fitz is a regressive move. The team does not progress with him. It is a way to stay mediocre. Geno has flourished the last two seasons when dickhead Ryan stopped meddling with the offense after he gave up on the season. Let's see what Geno can do under a real offensive coordinator free of the destructive meddling of blowhard Rex,

Lmfao. Yea Geno is a ******* gem.

[munchmemory]

Amish Rifle?  Oxymoron, no?

LOL!  The whoosh you hear is your joke whizzing by 99% of the guys reading it.

[JohnnyLV]

Lmfao. Yea Geno is a ******* gem.

 

He may be, he may not. We do not know, that is point. Let's see what OTAs, mini camp and TC bring. 

[Joe Jets fan]

Well good thing the coach is smart enough to sit Geno butt on the bench.

[Il Mostro]

“When someone shows you who they are believe them; the first time.”  Maya Angelou (probably a Jets fan during her life).

[Tinstar]

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, and thus you to yours. My question to you would be, since we're all hoping. Why on earth would you not hope that Geno Smith takes the next step forward into becoming a productive NFL QB instead of hoping that some guy who's at the end of his career plays well enough to get you a shot at maybe an 8 and 8 season ?

Why not hope for something with a future instead of hoping on something without even a past ? IE, Finding a starting QB in the draft.

Even the greatest QBs in the game today needed to be developed . Why on Earth do we blame every new Jet QB for the past 40 yrs of futility ?

It's not Geno Smith's fault the Jets haven't won the SB in 40+ yrs.

It was not Mark Sanchez's fault the Jets didn't win the SB over that same stretch.

Since we're hoping, why not hope for a future with a QB who has overcome his learning curve and is now ready to take us where we all want to go. Whether Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick or whoever is the starter opening day will work itself out between OTAs and pre-season .

[Tinstar]

“When someone shows you who they are believe them; the first time.”  Maya Angelou (probably a Jets fan during her life).

Are you the same person today that you were 10 yrs ago ?

[drdetroit]

The smart move is to start Fitz week 1.  He already knows the playbook and it takes pressure off Geno.  Once Fitz gets injured, if Geno comes in and plays effectively he's a hero.

[Gas2No99]

I see it now!!!

Fitzpatrick is the 2nd coming of the old sage journeyman who takes us on a Magic Carpet Ride reminiscent of Vincenzo Testaverde ala 1998!!!!

[New York Mick]

He may be, he may not. We do not know, that is point. Let's see what OTAs, mini camp and TC bring.

You can blame a lot of sh*t on Rex. Geno not being able to play isn't one of them. He just sucks.

[Tinstar]

The smart move is to start Fitz week 1.  He already knows the playbook and it takes pressure off Geno.  Once Fitz gets injured, if Geno comes in and plays effectively he's a hero.

And see here I thought the smart move would be to start the player who performs best during camp and the preseason. What do I know ?

[drdetroit]

And see here I thought the smart move would be to start the player who performs best during camp and the preseason. What do I know ?

You don't get W's during the regular season throwing for yardage in August facing guys who will be working at McDonalds the following month.

[LIJetsFan]

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, and thus you to yours. My question to you would be, since we're all hoping. Why on earth would you not hope that Geno Smith takes the next step forward into becoming a productive NFL QB instead of hoping that some guy who's at the end of his career plays well enough to get you a shot at maybe an 8 and 8 season ?

Why not hope for something with a future instead of hoping on something without even a past ? IE, Finding a starting QB in the draft.

Even the greatest QBs in the game today needed to be developed . Why on Earth do we blame every new Jet QB for the past 40 yrs of futility ?

It's not Geno Smith's fault the Jets haven't won the SB in 40+ yrs.

It was not Mark Sanchez's fault the Jets didn't win the SB over that same stretch.

Since we're hoping, why not hope for a future with a QB who has overcome his learning curve and is now ready to take us where we all want to go. Whether Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick or whoever is the starter opening day will work itself out between OTAs and pre-season .

 

 

I don't think Fitz is at the end of his career.  I'd say he's got a few serviceable years left in him.  I see no reason what so ever to not have Geno sit on the bench and learn the game.  I know he was a two year starter but they were undeserved/necessity starts not earned starts.  He can develop what potential he might yet have to show on the bench behind Fitz just like all the QB's did in years past.

 

 Also, I think Fitz will be much better than 8-8.  Just MHO but with Fitz I think this team has wildcard written all over it and that is before the draft. 

[drdetroit]

I don't think Fitz is at the end of his career.  I'd say he's got a few serviceable years left in him.  I see no reason what so ever to not have Geno sit on the bench and learn the game.  I know he was a two year starter but they were undeserved/necessity starts not earned starts.  He can develop what potential he might yet have to show on the bench behind Fitz just like all the QB's did in years past.

 

 Also, I think Fitz will be much better than 8-8.  Just MHO but with Fitz I think this team has wildcard written all over it and that is before the draft. 

Far worse qb's then Fitz have won 10 or more games in an NFL regular season.

[Tinstar]

I don't think Fitz is at the end of his career.  I'd say he's got a few serviceable years left in him.  I see no reason what so ever to not have Geno sit on the bench and learn the game.  I know he was a two year starter but they were undeserved/necessity starts not earned starts.  He can develop what potential he might yet have to show on the bench behind Fitz just like all the QB's did in years past.

 

 Also, I think Fitz will be much better than 8-8.  Just MHO but with Fitz I think this team has wildcard written all over it and that is before the draft.

there's absolutely nothing wrong with anything you wrote. The problem is, we're not talking about what will or might happen in the regular season, but hoping for an a possibility. What should the Jets do if Geno Smith goes out and light it up this training camp ? Should they start Fitzpatrick because Geno might turn back into the Geno so many think he always will be ? Remember we're hoping.

[southparkcpa]

Far worse qb's then Fitz have won 10 or more games in an NFL regular season.

name a few..... I'm sure your right but worse????

[LIJetsFan]

there's absolutely nothing wrong with anything you wrote. The problem is, we're not talking about what will or might happen in the regular season, but hoping for an a possibility. What should the Jets do if Geno Smith goes out and light it up this training camp ? Should they start Fitzpatrick because Geno might turn back into the Geno so many think he always will be ? Remember we're hoping.

 

If Geno lights it up and outperforms Fitz then he's, first the first time, earned the start.  I've no axe to grind here.  

[JohnJ]

People who think geno should start are basing that thought on hope. In real world that is not a strategy. There is no universe except a delusional alternate one where geno should be taking snaps ahead of ryan fitzpatrick.

That and the previous football adminisrartion of our Beloved Jets

[Tinstar]

If Geno lights it up and outperforms Fitz then he's, first the first time, earned the start.  I've no axe to grind here.

And that is the shame of his career. That kid should never have been anybody's starting QB coming out of WV.

[Il Mostro]

Are you the same person today that you were 10 yrs ago ?

 

 

   

[JohnnyLV]

You can blame a lot of sh*t on Rex. Geno not being able to play isn't one of them. He just sucks.

 

No he does not just suck. He was ruined by the way a$$hole Rex and his incompetent staff "developed" him.

[CrazyCarl40]

No he does not just suck. He was ruined by the way a$$hole Rex and his incompetent staff "developed" him.

He does not suck? He's either the lowest or second lowest QB in almost every statistical category that matters. He's horribly inaccurate and turns the ball over more than anyone else. He's awful and the Jets will be better off going with a grizzled, average vet even if it isn't the path to the future because that path isn't one Geno is on either.

[New York Mick]

No he does not just suck. He was ruined by the way a$$hole Rex and his incompetent staff "developed" him.

Yea Sanchez was awesome once he was away from Rex.

[drdetroit]

name a few..... I'm sure your right but worse????

Matt Cassell, Mark Sanchez, Matt Schsub, any steelers qb in between O'Donnel and Roethlisberger

[southparkcpa]

Matt Cassell, Mark Sanchez, Matt Schsub, any steelers qb in between O'Donnel and Roethlisberger

That's opinion..... You are entitled and in some cases correct, some not. BUT OK.... It works.

[peekskill68]

You can blame a lot of sh*t on Rex. Geno not being able to play isn't one of them. He just sucks.

 

So how do you think Brady would do running the read option?  I don't disagree that Geno has sucked. But Rex playing "not to lose" and Geno being thrust into Marty's WC offense with no prior experience didn't help.  Can we at least see what Geno has in a system that better suits his talent with a coaching staff that plays to win?  If Fitz outplays him and earns the starting job, so be it...

[southparkcpa]

So how do you think Brady would do running the read option?  I don't disagree that Geno has sucked. But Rex playing "not to lose" and Geno being thrust into Marty's WC offense with no prior experience didn't help.  Can we at least see what Geno has in a system that better suits his talent with a coaching staff that plays to win?  If Fitz outplays him and earns the starting job, so be it...

When REX had his chance for HIS OC.... We were never better than 500. While Mark and Geno basically are terrible, I saw little from REX to help them.

[JetBlue]

So how do you think Brady would do running the read option?  I don't disagree that Geno has sucked. But Rex playing "not to lose" and Geno being thrust into Marty's WC offense with no prior experience didn't help.  Can we at least see what Geno has in a system that better suits his talent with a coaching staff that plays to win?  If Fitz outplays him and earns the starting job, so be it...

I am in total agreement.  

[Joe Jets fan]

I wonder how many threads there will be debating if Geno sucks or not. Same five people are only ones who think it's not Geno's fault he sucks. Everyone else knows he sucks and always will.