What to do with Wikerson-Sheldon-Williams. Good article by Chase Stuart (Football Perspective)

[T0mShane]

What Will The Jets Do With Leonard Williams?

by CHASE STUART on MAY 3, 2015

in DRAFT

Teams should not draft for need in the first round, particularly in the top half of the first round. So when perhaps the best player in the 2015 draft — Southern Cal’s Leonard Williams — the Jets were faced with an interesting decision. Williams profiled as a five-technique defensive end in a 3-4 or a 3-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3, although he’s lauded for his versatility in playing along the line. For New York, the team’s best position in terms of talent and age is 3-4 defensive end, where Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson ply their trade.

Last year, Pro Football Focus charted 47 3-4 defensive ends that played at least 25% of their team’s snaps. The top three were J.J Watt, Richardson, and Wilkerson. For a team that went 4-12, adding a third dominant (if Williams pans out) 3-4 defensive end seems like a luxury. But is it? What are the Jets thinking?

Can’t the Jets Just Switch To A 4-3 Defense?

Not really. Sure, Todd Bowles is famous for his versatile defensive fronts, as Rex Ryan was before him. In a 4-3, the Jets could get everyone on the field, but they’d lack a true pass-rushing 4-3 defensive end. More importantly, the Jets don’t have the personnel to play linebacker in a 4-3.

The Jets two inside linebackers, David Harris and Demario Davis, led the team in snaps last year. Switching to a 4-3 obviously means either benching one of them or switching one to outside linebacker. Harris, limited in his speed and agility even by 3-4 ILB standards, would appear to be a terrible fit for a 4-3, and benching him is unlikely given that he has more guaranteed money per year on his contract than any other inside linebacker. Davis could, perhaps, switch to outside linebacker, but who would be the other option? Calvin Pace or Quinton Coples would be far too slow to cover enough ground at that position. Frankly, in a 4-3, the Jets would have one of the worst linebacker groups in the NFL.

The Jets would be fine in nickel (4-2-5), but again, where would the pass rush come from? The farther you put two of Wilkerson, Williams, or Richardson from the center/quarterback, the less you get to take advantage of their true talents. None of them are true 4-3 pass rushing ends; all could play it, but you move away from their strengths. Williams, Wilkerson, and Richardson are all about 6-4 and 300 pounds. Last year, there were 19 players who recorded double digit sacks in the NFL. Twelve of those players weighed 260 pounds or fewer, while another three were between 260 and 280 pounds. The remaining four: two huge outside linebackers (Paul Kruger and Mario Williams), a defensive tackle (Marcell Dareus), and Watt. If the Jets switch to a 4-3, the team would probably be worse off when it comes to rushing the passer, and it’s hard to imagine the team being any better against the run.

Okay, what about a 3-4 with those three on the line?

That could work… if the Jets didn’t happen to have one of the best nose tackles in the NFL. Among 3-4 teams, Damon Harrison rated as the top nose tackle against the run by Pro-Football-Focus last year, which is where he ranked in 2013, too.

Harrison recorded a “stop” on 12.5% of his snaps last year when the opposing team ran the ball. That was the best of any defensive lineman, regardless of position or alignment, in the NFL in 2014. In 2013, Richardson ranked 2nd to Watt in this metric. Taking Harrison off the field on running downs makes no sense at all, especially when he’s about 50 pounds heavier than each of Wilkerson, Williams, and Richardson.

Okay, So Now What? Do They Trade Wilkerson?

Richardson is not going to get traded, while Wilkerson is playing out his fifth year option this year. It makes no sense for New York to trade him right now, though, given that he’s only due to count for seven million against the cap. And since the Jets could still franchise him, there’s no rush to trade him, either, at least until Williams shows that he’s as good as everyone thinks. Oh, and by the way, teams aren’t in the habit of just letting All-Pro caliber defensive ends just leave in the primes of their careers.

Okay, so Harrison has to be on the field on run plays, and the Jets probably can’t play a 4-3. So what do they do with Williams?

This was the conundrum faced by the Jets once Williams slid to the sixth pick. Do you bypass an elite talent because he’s not a need pick? Of course not! Do you remember Tony Jones and Orlando Brown? Both were above-average tackles, the position of strength for a bad Cleveland Browns team in 1995. The team was hoping to take Simeon Rice with the 4th overall pick in the ’96 draft, but the Cardinals took Rice with the 3rd pick. With the 4th pick, the franchise — now in Baltimore — selected Jonathan Ogden.

As a rookie, Ogden … played left guard for the Ravens. After the season, Baltimore traded Jones to Denver for the 58th pick in the ’97 draft. The Jets could be in a similar situation, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the team try to trade Wilkerson for a 2016 1st round pick (if not more). That’s what you call a good problem.

But What About 2015?

Again, teams shouldn’t make their draft decisions based on what will happen in the immediate future. If the Jets took Kevin White or Vic Beasley — the 7th and 8th picks and players at clearer positions of need — both would just be rotational players as rookies.1 And that’s what the team will do with Williams this year.

Richardson and Wilkerson generally play about 80% of the team’s defensive snaps. Perhaps that number drops to 70-75% this year: and while you don’t want to take either of them off the field, you may be able to extract even better play on a per-play basis if you give them a breather every once in a awhile. That would leave Williams around to play about 55% of snaps as a rookie, which is a pretty reasonable number. And, of course, the team could wind up having all three on the field every once in awhile, so Williams could still feature in about 2/3 of all plays.

Last year, rookie Aaron Donald played in 67% of the defensive snaps for the St. Louis Rams, despite being arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL. And who knows what the team will do this year, with Donald, Michael Brockers, and Nick Fairley all on the defensive tackle depth chart. But that’s the point: teams need to rotate their defensive linemen, particularly the interior linemen.

So the Jets have three great five technique defensive ends. Would the team be better off with an elite edge rushing 3-4 OLB than Williams? Probably, but presumably the team’s scouting department didn’t see a player that was on the same talent level as Williams. And not reaching is the right move in that case.

When the Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2013, the team rotated its top seven defensive linemen. In Seattle’s 4-3 defense, all seven played between 480 and 600 snaps, and that seemed to work out just fine for the team. Rotating three defensive stars (and occasionally having all three on the field) may not be the sexiest solution, but it’s the most reasonable. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

White would not start over Eric Decker or Brandon Marshall, and Jeremy Kerley would still get his snaps. The Jets desperately need an edge rusher like Beasley, but the Jets would still have rotated him with Pace during his rookie year. [↩]

[T0mShane]

http://www.footballperspective.com/what-will-the-jets-do-with-leonard-williams/

[Larz]

 Would the team be better off with an elite edge rushing 3-4 OLB than Williams? Probably, but presumably the team’s scouting department didn’t see a player that was on the same talent level as Williams. And not reaching is the right move in that case.

 

 

if mauldin pans out, this draft has to be considered epic

[JohnnyLV]

Really Really REALLY dumb article. Shows no knowledge whatsoever about the type of defense Bowles runs or even really what 3-4 means in terms of how people play. Bowles will use his lineman in many ways, in nickel dime and base packages including the infamous 46 alignment which will be a nightmare for teams. Westhoff showed 2 alignments right off that will benefit from Williams. Bowles will be able to use alignments to dictate one one one matchups so Richardson and Williams will be able to penetrate OFTEN man to man rushing the QB. If they all stay healthy it should be awesome to behold,

[JohnnyLV]

 Would the team be better off with an elite edge rushing 3-4 OLB than Williams? Probably, but presumably the team’s scouting department didn’t see a player that was on the same talent level as Williams. And not reaching is the right move in that case.

 

 

if mauldin pans out, this draft has to be considered epic

 

Any prospect can be a bust, but watching Mauldin and hearing about what he is like as a person, I see almost no way he is not successful. In fact, with our line, and his leadership and dedication and football skill, I see him starting and being in the running for DROY.

[JustInFudge]

I think Babin could rush the passer from the 4-3 DE position. Maybe Coples too. Pace a little bit. It's doable. But yeah, Davis and Harris would be sitting ducks. But maybe that's when you send an Antonio Allen in that safety/LB tweener role. Similar to what he did in college.

[Larz]

The Most Terrifying Talent Stack

Leonard Williams and the Jets, who found the draft’s most highly regarded player on the board at no. 6 and took him without worrying about how he would play in their defense. This is different from the situation I just mentioned with Fowler and the Jaguars. There’s an obvious fit for Williams in New York; he’ll be a 5-technique defensive end, which was always going to be his ideal landing spot. The problem is that the Jets are loaded at defensive end, where they already line up a pair of Pro Bowl–caliber ends in Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Defensive end was already the most impressive position on Gang Green’s roster; now, they’ve added the sixth overall pick to the mix.

I can understand hearing complaints about this from Jets fans who wanted the team to add an edge rusher or even another wideout, especially with Kevin White still on the board. But there are dumber things than building your team through a dominant defensive line. The cross-stadium Giants built their championship-winning teams from 2007 and 2011 on deep, athletic defensive linemen, beating the Patriots in a pair of Super Bowls by whipping their offensive linemen one-on-one. Todd Bowles blitzed as much as anybody during his time in Arizona, but if he can get pressure by rushing four, he would be foolish not to take it. When the Jets go into sub packages, Bowles will be able to mix and match his linemen to his heart’s content while keeping them fresh with steady rotations.

The other concern is over Wilkerson’s future. The Jets haven’t come to terms with the New Jersey native on a long-term contract, and there has naturally been post-draft speculation that the Jets selected Williams with the idea that he’ll replace Wilkerson in the starting lineup after Wilkerson eventually leaves town. I find that one hard to believe. Wilkerson is entering the final year of his rookie contract, during which he’ll make just under $7 million. The Jets can franchise him next year while paying him somewhere around $12 million, which wouldn’t be an unfair sum. Wilkerson can get more than that on the free market, but with that leverage, the Jets should be able to entice him to sign a lengthy extension. My suspicion is that Wilkerson will stay and Bowles will get the most out of his new charges.

[Savage69]

http://www.footballperspective.com/what-will-the-jets-do-with-leonard-williams/

Chase Stuart is a Manhattan lawyer who likes football everyone has a opinion..

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

I don't understand why people are getting mad at the article. The whole point is that there's close to full-time work for all three of them even before you start getting creative. This is a good thing, see.

[Villain The Foe]

I think Babin could rush the passer from the 4-3 DE position. Maybe Coples too. Pace a little bit. It's doable. But yeah, Davis and Harris would be sitting ducks. But maybe that's when you send an Antonio Allen in that safety/LB tweener role. Similar to what he did in college.

While reading the article that was exactly what I was thinking. Coples could be a 4-3 pass rushing defensive end. And as for the "4-3 OLB problem" there isnt one. Keep Harris in the middle, put Davis on the outside and throw Pryor into the 2nd LB position with Antonio Allen playing SS and Gilchrist playing FS. You could even flip Allen and Pryor because thats the exact type of box play that Allen flourished in at South Carolina. One thing that Allen has done as a Jet is tackle, and has done it consistently in open space. That part of his game has not been a problem. Now you have a 4-3 alignment with box safeties playing OLB that can swarm the line of scrimmage and tackle in the backfield (Pryor) and can cover tight ends and make open field tackles(Allen).

 

Add to the fact that you if Revis is lined up on the left side of the defense then that should be the same side that Allen/Prior should be lined up on given that Revis is great in shedding blocks and helping in the run game. Demario Davis could take care of Cromartie's side. 

[SickJetFan]

Demario Davis is no Lewis that Rex would have us believe.  If anyone is going to see less snaps it will be Davis as he has been average at best. 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Demario Davis is no Lewis that Rex would have us believe. If anyone is going to see less snaps it will be Davis as he has been average at best.

Harris and Davis aren't playing 100%, Pace isn't playing 80%, Coples isn't playing inside. There are lots of snaps.

[slats]

I suspect we'll see all three of these guys on the field a lot for obvious passing downs. And the way the Jets stuff the run, there should be a lot of obvious passing downs. 

[Jetsbb]

Key quote " The team could wind up having all three on the field every once in awhile" Once in a ****ing while. What an epic failure.

[Lizard King]

It pains me to say it, but if we trade Wilkerson for high draft picks I will be happy. The good teams always seem to have a knack for replenishing their strong positions in the draft and leveraging above average current players in their prime to trade, and you build around your allstars. For instance you trade a Wilkerson, not a Richardson. We were the other side of that strategy for a decade, and now finally we can take advantage of that concept because we have a front office that knows how to actually scout. It's how good teams are really built.

[slats]

Key quote " The team could wind up having all three on the field every once in awhile" Once in a ****ing while. What an epic failure.

 

What is an epic failure? 

 

It pains me to say it, but if we trade Wilkerson for high draft picks I will be happy. The good teams always seem to have a knack for replenishing their strong positions in the draft and leveraging above average current players in their prime to trade, and you build around your allstars. For instance you trade a Wilkerson, not a Richardson. We were the other side of that strategy for a decade, and now finally we can take advantage of that concept because we have a front office that knows how to actually scout. It's how good teams are really built.

 

They'll franchise Wilkerson next year, and either someone will just pony up the two first rounders on an offer sheet, or they'll listen to lesser offers. An extra first rounder would put them in position to potentially trade up for the much needed QB. Three first rounders would put them in spectacular position. 

[Lizard King]

What is an epic failure?

They'll franchise Wilkerson next year, and either someone will just pony up the two first rounders on an offer sheet, or they'll listen to lesser offers. An extra first rounder would put them in position to potentially trade up for the much needed QB. Three first rounders would put them in spectacular position.

Yeah good point, I realized the franchise tag leverage that they had after I posted. Also, next year we will have an idea if Petty would already possibly be the QB. We couldn't possibly get that lucky though. I'm greatful enough for what we already got.

[ljr]

I suspect we'll see all three of these guys on the field a lot for obvious passing downs. And the way the Jets stuff the run, there should be a lot of obvious passing downs.

This!

First & second downs expect a good amount of rotating between the DE's

Third down passing situations expect Snacks on the side & all 3 DE's in there

If Mauldin is a legit pass rushing threat this D may be truly epic!!

[Kevin L]

For me, the wild card is Coples. It's pretty obvious by now that his best position is DE. So does Bowles see Coples as an every down player, or just a rotational guy? If he's an every down DE, does that mean we primarily run a 4-3, and if so, who gets kicked inside to make room for him?

[Lupz27]

While playing the Big Nickel 4-2-5 which will probably be our most used D, and one of the 4 will actually be a rush LB like Coples, Pace, or Babin at times, this gives the Jets the option to rotate up to 10 different players who actually have the talent to play in the NFL for the front 6, and 9 different players who actually have the talent to play in the NFL in the DB field also. Depth everywhere.

[jack48]

I suspect we'll see all three of these guys on the field a lot for obvious passing downs. And the way the Jets stuff the run, there should be a lot of obvious passing downs. 

And the guys we want to beat most are the ones who do not handle pressure up the gut, which all of these guys, including Coples, are good at providing.

[HessStation]

I don't understand why people are getting mad at the article. The whole point is that there's close to full-time work for all three of them even before you start getting creative. This is a good thing, see.

 

I think the point is, we already knew that, the article doesn't explain sh*t. Plus, everyone gets to pile on the TOm Shane hate train, see. 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

While playing the Big Nickel 4-2-5 which will probably be our most used D, and one of the 4 will actually be a rush LB like Coples, Pace, or Babin at times, this gives the Jets the option to rotate up to 10 different players who actually have the talent to play in the NFL for the front 6, and 9 different players who actually have the talent to play in the NFL in the DB field also. Depth everywhere.

Agree with this, Bowles was also talking about Pace playing a SS role at times and I could see him in blitzing from the corner, could be a fun year

[NYallDay]

Agree with this, Bowles was also talking about Pace playing a SS role at times and I could see him in blitzing from the corner, could be a fun year

Pace?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AFJF]

For me, the wild card is Coples. It's pretty obvious by now that his best position is DE. So does Bowles see Coples as an every down player, or just a rotational guy? If he's an every down DE, does that mean we primarily run a 4-3, and if so, who gets kicked inside to make room for him?

 

I feel like he's been the wild card for a couple years now...I really hope they find a way to get the most out of him.  So much talent there.

[drdetroit]

Lotsa 46 Bear

[RSJ]

Great article. Makes sense.

[cant wait]

Lotsa 46 Bear

 

It would make sense with this secondary, I guess pryor would line up opposite harris then?

[JN QB]

Demario Davis is no Lewis that Rex would have us believe.  If anyone is going to see less snaps it will be Davis as he has been average at best.

Disagree, why take your best LB off the field?

He can easily play the sam in a 4-3 too.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

I think the point is, we already knew that, the article doesn't explain sh*t.

Between the rosterbating fanboys who think we're going to be running them out there together on a regular basis in anything besides zone 30 front sub packages and the article, I don't know that the burden of explanation is on the latter.

[Integrity28]

UGHHHHHHH ... so many ******* words.

 

The answer to the question in the thread title is: KILL QUARTERBACKS.

[Maxman]

For me, the wild card is Coples. It's pretty obvious by now that his best position is DE. So does Bowles see Coples as an every down player, or just a rotational guy? If he's an every down DE, does that mean we primarily run a 4-3, and if so, who gets kicked inside to make room for him?

 

I don't have the answer but I agree Coples is a big part of the question. I loved Coples making the comment that he won't have to jam #1 wide receivers at the line anymore. This is going to be worth watching at camp this year....really can't wait to see what they are thinking.

[JetsRay]

Demario Davis is no Lewis that Rex would have us believe.  If anyone is going to see less snaps it will be Davis as he has been average at best. 

 

LOL, Davis is average at best?

 

LOLOL

[HessStation]

Between the rosterbating fanboys who think we're going to be running them out there together on a regular basis in anything besides zone 30 front sub packages and the article, I don't know that the burden of explanation is on the latter.

I was just being a douche for fun.

[T0mShane]

I was just being a douche for fun.

Hesstegrity28