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What is Devin Smith's NFL comparison, and floor/ceiling?


Jetsfan80

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A lot of people are comparing Devin Smith to DeSean Jackson.  However, I think I see a different WR to compare him to.  How about Santana Moss?  Much like Moss, Smith is a devastating deep threat.  Also like Moss, Smith's biggest weakness is being a "body catcher".  Santana had some similar issues in his NFL career.  Also, check out their stats in college:

 

Moss (Miami):

 

1997:  14 catches, 269 yards, 19.2 ypc, 0 TD's

1998:  30 catches, 631 yards, 21.0 ypc, 8 TD's

1999:  54 catches, 899 yards, 16.6 ypc, 6 TD's

2000:  45 catches, 748 yards, 16.6 ypc, 5 TD's

 

TOTAL:  143 catches, 2,547 yards, 17.8 ypc, 19 TD's

 

 

Smith (Ohio St):

 

2011:  14 catches, 294 yards, 21.0 ypc, 4 TD's

2012:  30 catches, 618 yards, 20.6 ypc, 6 TD's

2013:  44 catches, 660 yards, 15.0 ypc, 8 TD's

2014:  33 catches, 931 yards, 28.2 ypc, 12 TD's

 

TOTAL:  121 catches, 2,503 yards, 20.7 ypc, 30 TD's

 

 

Their freshman and sophomore numbers were like mirror images.  What is truly shocking is how Smith converted 12 TD's off his 33 catches last season.  It seems that OSU went completely high risk/high reward with him in his Senior campaign.  28.2 yards per catch is simply insane.

 

 

So if exceeding the likes of Moss and DeSean Jackson is Smith's ceiling, what's his floor?  Could he be a Stephen Hill-level bust, or will his talent always make him at the very least a solid decoy threat in the NFL?

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I submit one more name for his ceiling: Reggie Wayne.  Going to attempt to copy/paste the article -- it's from a fantasy football site/analyst (really good one) I follow on Twitter -- @FantasyDouche if anyone is interested.  Does some really awesome stat comparisons and such.

 

http://rotoviz.com/2015/04/devin-smith-comparable-will-leave-pounding-table/?utm_content=bufferb50d9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Devin Smith is a rather intriguing fantasy prospect in yet another deep class of wide receivers. We already know that he owns the craziest stat from the 2015 NFL Draft, but he still came in at just 10th in the RotoViz Pre-Draft Rookie Receiver Rankings. This isn’t surprising, as a 196 pound receiver is not typically the kind of player to earn a large amount of buzz around here. However, there is a Devin Smith comparable that won’t just have you targeting him in your rookie drafts, you’ll be pounding the table for him.

The Devin Smith Comparables

I was amazed when I saw the comparables for Smith in the Box Score Scout App. I gave him an expected draft position of 44 based on his CBS and Play the Draft rankings. This is what came out:

 

Devin-Smith-Comparables.png

The list is fairly impressive. We see a much heavier Dwayne Bowe, who has had a very successful career from a fantasy perspective. Robert Woods has compiled over 1,200 yards already in his NFL career, and Steve Smith (former Giant) has logged a top 10 PPR season (2009). When I saw his most comparable player I almost jumped out of my chair: REGGIE WAYNE!? I had to look at this in a little further depth to make sure I wasn’t going crazy.

Smith and Wayne: A Closer Look

Take a look at this heat map for Smith and Wayne:

 

Devin-Smith-Reggie-Wayne1.png

The two players are near carbon copies of each other. The only real areas of discernible difference are in the vertical jump (edge to Smith) and market share of receiving touchdowns (edge to Wayne). Note that although Wayne received a larger percentage of Miami’s touchdowns than Smith did at Ohio State, they had the exact same number of receiving touchdowns per game. What helped Wayne was that The U only passed for 26 touchdowns in 2000, while OSU had a whopping 42. Even if we look at age, the pair are fairly close. Wayne was about 22 years and 6 months old by May of the year he was drafted and Smith is currently about 23 years and 2 months. Both were older prospects with a shot to stick in the first round. Reggie did at 30 overall, and Smith may not, but the difference is not expected to be tremendous. All of this bodes incredibly well for the soon to be rookie.

 

Does Quarterback Matter?

Obviously that is a loaded question, and the answer is yes. We would much rather see Devin Smith catching passes from Drew Brees than Josh McCown. However, the more important question is does it matter as much as we think for a player compared to Reggie Wayne? I think that there are plenty of football people who think Wayne was a product of playing with Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck. However, his 2011 season was nothing to sneeze at either, as he finished as WR25 in PPR despite being well over 30 and catching passes from Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, and Kerry Collins. If Smith truly turns out to be anything like Reggie Wayne, he should still be able to be productive so long as he gets targets, and his expected low price on draft day would make even one top 25 season worth the cost of drafting him.

Conclusion

Devin Smith seems like a close match to Reggie Wayne when we analyze him through the Box Score Scout App. Even if we extend the parameters to include things like vertical leap and freak score, the two players are very close. Based on the opportunity scores and draft order, there is a very strong chance that he ends up on a team that will target him frequently. If you have any concern over his potential need for an elite quarterback, Wayne was still effective when catching passes from career backups. Best of all, Smith shouldn’t cost you much in your rookie drafts with respect to his potential. I know I’ll be pounding the table for him all summer.

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^^^Lots of "bad" comparables there as well...but Hunter, Woods, Bowe and Wheaton aren't exactly terrible.  And bear in mind, it's not saying he's going to be Reggie Wayne...just that those statistical inputs spit out Wayne as the most similar.

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Now as for his floor?  I mean...Heyward-Bey had freak speed and that has done no more than keep him employed all these years.  Of course...Smith had almost as many TD's last year as Bey did his entire career (12 to 13).  I don't like the Stephen Hill comparison just because Smith had 0 drops last year and was 6 for 6 in contested catches.  **See the "Reception Perception" thread for that data**

 

How about Tedd Ginn Jr for a downside?  I think that's a good one.

 

Maybe Wheaton's season last year -- couple of big boom games and several busts, lots of potential -- is a middle of the road expectation?  That comes with the caveat that Wheaton is poised to be a bigger part of that offense again this season so he may be considered an "upside" comparable this time next year.

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I don't know who to compare him to, but the think I've noticed that I like about him is that his QBs at Ohio either over-threw him or under-threw him a ton, and he made the catches. He either tracked the ball, caught up to it, and got long to reel them in, or he slowed down, waited on the ball, and went up and over the defender and ripped it away from them.

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OSU just asked him to go deep all the time, but I think he's capable of doing other things.  The film would suggest he's a Mike Wallace type who won't catch a high volume of passes, but the ones he does catch will be impact plays.  His character however seems to be better than Wallace.  But I also think he has a little of Steve Smith Sr.'s feistiness too.  His hands are a plus.  He had a lot of body catches in college because he kept getting underthrown, but he can catch it with his hands too.

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Right now he's Kenny Stills. But Stills is maxed out, he'll never be much more than a deep threat. Devin has the tools to be a Torrey Smith type receiver down the road. But his first ~2 years I think he'll be what Kenny Stills was in NO. Then once Marshall slows down, gets cut or retires, Devin can take over.

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I see Desean Jackson the most, but honestly give me anything that's not a bust. Just be a god damn good receiver please!!!

 

This....when I was watching him catch some of those deep balls that's who he reminded me of.

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Wishful dreaming: Steve Smith

 

More realistic ceiling: Mike Wallace

 

Actually going to be more like: Torrey Smith

 

Could easily be: Ted Ginn Jr. 

 

Please god hope he's not: Stephen Hill

Hill never had good hands so i doubt that will be an issue.  Smith has both speed and great hands.  The only issue is to see if he can be a more complete wide reciever.  Other than Cooper he was my favorite reciever in the draft

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Hill never had good hands so i doubt that will be an issue.  Smith has both speed and great hands.  The only issue is to see if he can be a more complete wide reciever.  Other than Cooper he was my favorite reciever in the draft

 

He was the one guy that really made me nervous from the top end WR group but the more I've read and the more I've seen, I've warmed up to it.  Some of the cut up stuff I watched, he kind do a little of everything, not just burn you long.   He was used a lot like Riley Cooper was used from Urban back in his days at Florida, so I think his numbers were impacted by that...but he's made some man like catches that definitely thinks he's got more to offer than just running go routes all game long.

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I would MUCH rather have chosen a WR that actually was a ball hawk and was known for running great routes and catching tons of passes

 

we drafted a one trick pony who will be trying to get separation vs bigger faster stronger wrs than in college

 

say hello to stephen hill part two or as I said Johnny Lam another guy that was a one trick pony the jets drafted high

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Wishful dreaming: Steve Smith

 

More realistic ceiling: Mike Wallace

 

Actually going to be more like: Torrey Smith

 

Could easily be: Ted Ginn Jr. 

 

Please god hope he's not: Stephen Hill

 

Haha.  This about sums it up nicely.  However, Urban Meyer called him the best deep threat he's EVER had, so that gives me high hopes.

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I would MUCH rather have chosen a WR that actually was a ball hawk and was known for running great routes and catching tons of passes

 

we drafted a one trick pony who will be trying to get separation vs bigger faster stronger wrs than in college

 

say hello to stephen hill part two or as I said Johnny Lam another guy that was a one trick pony the jets drafted high

This has to be the single,stupidest post I have read on JN and that is truly saying something. 

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