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Sunday Notes: Jets Faith In Smith is Unusual


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Sunday notes: New York Jets' faith in Geno Smith is unusual, historically speaking

2h

 

The Jets are sticking with Geno Smith despite to seasons of below average play. Al Bello/Getty Images

 

Rich Cimini, ESPN Staff Writer

 

A look at what's going on around the New York Jets:

 

 

1. Third time's a charm? It's not unprecedented for a quarterback like Geno Smith to get another starting nod after two below-average seasons. Look at quarterbacks of his statistical ilk, and you'll see it happens fairly often. But keeping reading because there's a caveat.

 

 

The folks at Football Outsiders did some number crunching and came up with a list of 10 quarterbacks over the last 25 years whose statistical metrics in their first two seasons come closest to Smith's numbers (minimum: 100 attempts). This list isn't flattering toward Smith -- Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, Tim Couch, Rick Mirer, Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Charlie Frye, Billy Joe Tolliver, Steve Walsh and Jake Plummer.

 

 

Basically, they all stunk in their first two seasons, but eight of the 10 -- all except Tolliver and Walsh -- started opening day in Year 3. Ah, but there's more to the story: Seven of the eight were first-round picks, including four in the top-6. The exception was Frye (third round), who got benched in the 2007 opener and never started another game for the Cleveland Browns.

 

 

Obviously, teams are more patient with first-round draft choices because of the money invested. Smith was a second-round pick, so, yeah, what the Jets are doing is outside the box. The new regime is planning to start Smith after two years of play that ranged mostly from poor to uneven. If he succeeds, he'll be bucking a trend.

 

 

2. Follow-up QB thoughts: The Jets' quarterback announcement, which wasn't really an announcement as much as a clarification, has produced some misguided chatter. Allow me to clean up a couple of things.

 

 

No, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey didn't undermine Todd Bowles by proclaiming Smith the starter. In Gailey's mind, he was reiterating what Bowles already had stated on multiple occasions. In reality, though, Bowles wasn't nearly as definitive as Gailey, who skipped the coachspeak and gave a candid answer to a question.

 

 

No, the job doesn't come with a lifetime appointment for Smith. He's like 95 percent of the starting players in the league; if he performs poorly, he'll lose the job. Very few are afforded "untouchable" status, and Smith is a long way from that. But make no mistake, their plan is to go into the season with him behind center.

 

 

 

3. Geno versus Mariota: I wonder if the new coaching staff would feel this confident about Smith if they had drafted Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. Gailey was asked if he viewed Smith as a better option than Mariota and Winston, and he ducked. I know this: The Jets never were going to pick Mariota at No. 6; he wasn't among the top six on their draft board. Neither was Winston, from what I'm told.

 

 

4. Not wild about the deuce: The general consensus around the league is the longer PAT (32/33 yards) will cause teams to try more two-point plays than in the past, especially in bad weather. I have some advice for the Jets: Practice, practice, practice.

 

 

They're the worst two-point team in the league, and it's not even close for second-worst. Since 2001, the Jets have converted a league-low 27.8 percent -- 10-for-36. Their last successful conversion was 2010.

 

 

More sobering numbers: In Gailey's last coaching gig (Buffalo Bills, 2010-2012), his offense was only 1-for-5 on conversions.

 

 

Bowles said his strategy for PAT versus two-point play will be based on weather and game conditions.

 

 

"I think it will depend on whether you’re playing in Green Bay or Miami," he said. "If it’s 20 below and the wind is swirling, you may be more inclined to go for two. If the weather is nice, you probably kick the extra point. I think once it gets cold, it may factor in more than it factors in early in the season."

 

 

Some good news for the Jets: Kicker Nick Folk is 9-for-9 in his career from 32 and 33 yards. So there's that.

 

 

5. April disagrees with Feely: Former Jets kicker Jay Feely made headlines with his response to the new PAT rule, saying it increases the injury risk. I understand where he's coming from. Because the kick is 13 yards longer than the previous distance, teams will rush more aggressively in an attempt to block the kick. That will lead to more contact, which could lead to more injuries -- in theory.

 

 

Special teams coach Bobby April disgreed with Feely's take, and I'm with April on this one.

 

 

"You wouldn’t want to take contact out of the game," April said. "We’d be playing soccer."

 

 

6. The Zac attack: Zac Stacy created a buzz on draft day when he tweeted "Yikes!" in response to the St. Louis Rams picking running back Todd Gurley. Stacy told me, "It was humorous. I didn't think it would get that reaction." Unbeknownst to many, he reached out to Gurley, congratulating him and wishing him well with the Rams -- a classy gesture.

 

 

You know the rest of the story: Stacy requested a trade and he was dealt to the Jets, where he finds himself in a crowded backfield.

 

 

"It'll be a huge competition," he said. "We all understand what's at stake."

 

 

Stacy said he considers himself an every-down back, and he expects plenty of opportunities.

 

 

"With these guys being third in the league in rushing, I figure they're going to run the ball a little bit," he said. "It gets you licking your chops."

 

 

7. Double vision: One of the early takeaways from watching Bowles' practices is that he likes to split the team and use two fields, which gives reps to more players. That's one of the reasons why he's going with five quarterbacks on the roster. By training camp, he expects to have it down to four. We saw another practice wrinkle last week. Bowles created an offense-versus-defense challenge in a two-minute drill, and the loser (the offense) had to run gassers. The only time I can remember gassers under Rex Ryan was a few years ago in Cortland, where several skirmishes erupted in practice and Ryan made them run penalty sprints.

 

 

8. E-Z pass (defense): Listening to Antonio Cromartie talk about Bowles' defensive scheme makes you think it shouldn't take long for the players to master the nuances of the system.

 

 

"This is by far the simplest defense anybody could play," said Cromartie, who played under Bowles last year in Arizona. "The defense itself is straightforward. If you can't learn this defense, something is wrong with you."

 

 

Cromartie loves the simplicity because it allows the players to play fast. No one ever called Ryan's scheme easy to learn, but the players always said it allowed them to play fast. Here's what I think: If you have fast players, you play fast.

 

 

9. The select two: Only two of the nine undrafted players received signing bonuses -- defensive tackle Davon Wells ($15,000) and safety Durrell Eskridge ($8,500, plus a $5,000 guarantee on his base salary). When a rookie free agent gets a bonus, it usually means there was competition for his services.

 

 

10. Call him Mr. T Bill: Before the 2012 season, then-GM Mike Tannenbaum extended Mark Sanchez's contract even though it had two years to go. Sanchez received a $20.5 million guarantee. Last week, Tannenbaum, now the Miami Dolphins' football czar, extended Ryan Tannehill's contract even though it had two years remaining. It includes $21.5 million in guarantees (which can increase to $45 million). Tannenbaum better hope this works out better than the last one.

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This portion is the most depressing comment of the off season:

 

 

 

The folks at Football Outsiders did some number crunching and came up with a list of 10 quarterbacks over the last 25 years whose statistical metrics in their first two seasons come closest to Smith's numbers (minimum: 100 attempts). This list isn't flattering toward Smith -- Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, Tim Couch, Rick Mirer, Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Charlie Frye, Billy Joe Tolliver, Steve Walsh and Jake Plummer.

 

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My hope is Rex was so bad with QBs and offense that maybe Geno gets better. I doubt it but maybe.

 

I think that there's a very good chance that this is the case.  That's not to say that Geno is going to take huge leaps and become a Top 10 QB or anything, but I think Rex has proven himself to be one of the worst coaches when it comes to QBs that there is.  I think the absence of Rex and Lee will help Geno improve somewhat and we'll have the defense to lean on to help close the gap.

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I think that there's a very good chance that this is the case. That's not to say that Geno is going to take huge leaps and become a Top 10 QB or anything, but I think Rex has proven himself to be one of the worst coaches when it comes to QBs that there is. I think the absence of Rex and Lee will help Geno improve somewhat and we'll have the defense to lean on to help close the gap.

Kind of like Sanchez did in philly

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 but I think Rex has proven himself to be one of the worst coaches when it comes to QBs that there is. 

 

Firing agents, airplane incidents, missing meeting in SD w/ ridiculous excuse, dickpic accusations.  

 

Whether this crap is coincidental or directly linked to disappointing play, for success in 2015 our franchise is projecting that a tiger changes its stripes.

 

As per Geno, I went with hope for his 2014 season - and it's all I have for him in 2015, even less faith than before. This stinks.

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I know this: The Jets never were going to pick Mariota at No. 6; he wasn't among the top six on their draft board. Neither was Winston, from what I'm told.

If true, this would explain Gailey's comment that they knew they were going with Smith as the starter before they even traded for Fitzpatrick. They knew they wouldn't have a choice.

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Did they cherry pick a list of hardly made it past 2 year guys?

 

Steve Young completed 52, 53, 53, 53 % of his passes his first 4 years.  24 TDs and 24 picks with no yardage.  Vinny was god awful for much longer.  Eli completed 48% in year 1, 53 year 2.  QBR of 55 and 75.  Those were just a few off the top of my head.

 

 

Seems like they cherry picked the sh*tty QBs who never made it and compare them to Geno to prove he'll always suck and ignore others who turned it around..

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This really doesn't seem like something to panic about.  They really have no option at this point.  They have Geno and a mediocre veteran who isn't even healthy yet.  Naming Geno the starter now doesn't preclude Fitz from taking the job in training camp if Geno stinks it up in the preseason games.  It doesn't stop them from having a quick hook in the regular season either.  Geno comes cheap and he is young enough to have upside.  The new regime has to be sure what they have in him,  and they want to decide based on what they see with their staff and offensive scheme, not relying on what he did with the previous regime's offense of the last few years.  It is a very logical approach and maybe that is why it seems so surprising to a lot of the fan base.  We aren't used to logic.

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I'm not buying any of Cimini's uncorroborated silly contentions.  I don't believe for a minute that Mariotta and Crab legs weren't in Mac's top 6.  I'm not buying for a minute that they knew they wouldn't be trading for a better veteran QB other than Fitzpatrick so annointed Geno prematurely.  This is all after-the-fact reasoning, something Cimini is notorious for doing through the years because there is no way we can validate the claim or prove that it is bogus.

 

Cimini has always violated every basic tenet of professional journalism.

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Did they cherry pick a list of hardly made it past 2 year guys?

 

Steve Young completed 52, 53, 53, 53 % of his passes his first 4 years.  24 TDs and 24 picks with no yardage.  Vinny was god awful for much longer.  Eli completed 48% in year 1, 53 year 2.  QBR of 55 and 75.  Those were just a few off the top of my head.

 

 

Seems like they cherry picked the sh*tty QBs who never made it and compare them to Geno to prove he'll always suck and ignore others who turned it around..

 

I agree. People forget that Eli was completely awful his first couple years, and had a couple of 0 rating games himself. I truly believe it is the Rex affect that has hurt Geno, and so i hope he turns it around. He is certainly the best option on the current roster. Will be exciting to actually see the offense in action.

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I agree. People forget that Eli was completely awful his first couple years, and had a couple of 0 rating games himself. I truly believe it is the Rex affect that has hurt Geno, and so i hope he turns it around. He is certainly the best option on the current roster. Will be exciting to actually see the offense in action.

You blame ISIS on Rex..LOL First Rex pays no attention to offense and now he's totally responsible.. Before Fitz broke his leg last year he had 17 tds and 8 picks completed 63 % of his passes and had a QB rating of 95.3 yet Geno is the best option??

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Did they cherry pick a list of hardly made it past 2 year guys?

 

Steve Young completed 52, 53, 53, 53 % of his passes his first 4 years.  24 TDs and 24 picks with no yardage.  Vinny was god awful for much longer.  Eli completed 48% in year 1, 53 year 2.  QBR of 55 and 75.  Those were just a few off the top of my head.

 

 

Seems like they cherry picked the sh*tty QBs who never made it and compare them to Geno to prove he'll always suck and ignore others who turned it around..

I really don't think you can use any historic QBs to judge Geno one way or the other. Each case is an individual one.

The hope for Geno is that the coaching, weaponz, and overall "development" he's gotten so far as a pro has been poor. That he was rushed into the starting lineup long before he was ready, and that really shows in his early statistics. And that the new GM has already vastly improved the weaponz, and the new coaching staff might (will?) install a much more Geno-friendly offense.

It's easy to say that Geno was the worst blah, blah, blah, but that overlooks the fact that he improved in comp%, TD%, int%, all while maintaining a respectable 6.9 ypa. He has some raw material to work with.

I'm glad they're giving him all the first team work. It's do or die for him. If he flops, he'll have no excuse, and the team will have to be aggressive looking for a replacement next year. But they'd be foolish to push him aside before seeing how he responds with all the improvements around him.

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I really don't think you can use any historic QBs to judge Geno one way or the other. Each case is an individual one.

The hope for Geno is that the coaching, weaponz, and overall "development" he's gotten so far as a pro has been poor. That he was rushed into the starting lineup long before he was ready, and that really shows in his early statistics. And that the new GM has already vastly improved the weaponz, and the new coaching staff might (will?) install a much more Geno-friendly offense.

It's easy to say that Geno was the worst blah, blah, blah, but that overlooks the fact that he improved in comp%, TD%, int%, all while maintaining a respectable 6.9 ypa. He has some raw material to work with.

I'm glad they're giving him all the first team work. It's do or die for him. If he flops, he'll have no excuse, and the team will have to be aggressive looking for a replacement next year. But they'd be foolish to push him aside before seeing how he responds with all the improvements around him.

Geno has shown ability at times. He can make all the throws and sometimes even to Jet players. Another thing Geno has is excellent durability he's be creamed quite a few times and always gets up.. I agree it's do or die time for Geno like in baseball 3 strikes and your out..

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You blame ISIS on Rex..LOL First Rex pays no attention to offense and now he's totally responsible.. Before Fitz broke his leg last year he had 17 tds and 8 picks completed 63 % of his passes and had a QB rating of 95.3 yet Geno is the best option??

You answered your own question.... Rex is responsible because he paid no attention to the offense, he was so inept on offense that he allowed suspect coaches and coordinators run it completely. So he was directly responsible for Geno and Mark.

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Did they cherry pick a list of hardly made it past 2 year guys?

 

Steve Young completed 52, 53, 53, 53 % of his passes his first 4 years.  24 TDs and 24 picks with no yardage.  Vinny was god awful for much longer.  Eli completed 48% in year 1, 53 year 2.  QBR of 55 and 75.  Those were just a few off the top of my head.

 

All FO did is come up with 10 QB's whose numbers match Geno's for the first 2 seasons.  There's nothing in there that says they only picked QB's that went on to be failures, ignoring the ones who had success.  Why is it so surprising that those 10 guys turned out to be horrible?  It would take an act of providence for Geno to suddenly become an effective starter in this league.  And much like Sanchez, the longer we hold out hope, the quicker our window closes.

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All FO did is come up with 10 QB's whose numbers match Geno's for the first 2 seasons.  There's nothing in there that says they only picked QB's that went on to be failures, ignoring the ones who had success.  Why is it so surprising that those 10 guys turned out to be horrible?  It would take an act of providence for Geno to suddenly become an effective starter in this league.  And much like Sanchez, the longer we hold out hope, the quicker our window closes.

The tone of the entire article would be different if they listed the QBs who had similar starts and went on to succeed.  

 

It wouldn't be close to a act of providence, the overwhelming number of QBs in the history of the NFL start off sucking big time.  Its a hard game that takes time.  Two years is nowhere near enough time to know definitively what a QB will be.  Especially one who has never had enough support around him.  Only with the case of the Jets is a given.  

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I really don't think you can use any historic QBs to judge Geno one way or the other. Each case is an individual one.

The hope for Geno is that the coaching, weaponz, and overall "development" he's gotten so far as a pro has been poor. That he was rushed into the starting lineup long before he was ready, and that really shows in his early statistics. And that the new GM has already vastly improved the weaponz, and the new coaching staff might (will?) install a much more Geno-friendly offense.

It's easy to say that Geno was the worst blah, blah, blah, but that overlooks the fact that he improved in comp%, TD%, int%, all while maintaining a respectable 6.9 ypa. He has some raw material to work with.

I'm glad they're giving him all the first team work. It's do or die for him. If he flops, he'll have no excuse, and the team will have to be aggressive looking for a replacement next year. But they'd be foolish to push him aside before seeing how he responds with all the improvements around him.

Agree.  Hard to say that Geno was in a comparable situation to QB X given how little he had around him.  QB numbers are so dependent on surrounding talent, on both sides of the ball.  He came back after his benching last season with Harvin added to the roster and his last 6 games produced pretty decent numbers outside of the goofy game vs Miami when Rex cut of his nose to spite others by not letting him throw until the last few minutes of the game.  

 

I keep wondering why people want to give Mariota a couple of seasons to develop and want to toss Geno aside without giving him the same time frame coming from the same type offense, same issues.  

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The tone of the entire article would be different if they listed the QBs who had similar starts and went on to succeed.  

 

It wouldn't be close to a act of providence, the overwhelming number of QBs in the history of the NFL start off sucking big time.  Its a hard game that takes time.  Two years is nowhere near enough time to know definitively what a QB will be.  Especially one who has never had enough support around him.  Only with the case of the Jets is a given.  

 

For every QB who sucked for 2 years then went on to greatness or even being a solid starter, there's probably 50 who went on to suck forever.  Everyone points to the Eli example but even he had 24 TD's/17 INT's his 2nd season with nearly 4,000 yards.  Eli was bad his first couple years but he wasn't godawful.  People like to pretend they're all the same QB's those first couple years.  They're not.

 

And I'm soooooo tired of the "He never had enough support" argument.  Good QB's make their weapons better, rarely if ever does that occur the other way around.  Not to mention Geno had plenty of weapons last year, especially when we added Percy Harvin.  He was still even worse than his rookie year.  Sanchez had the same excuses.  Guess what, he had tons of weapons in Philly and a good offensive coach.  He still was horrible.  Bad QB's are bad QB's no matter what circumstances you provide them.  Geno and Sanchez are the types that would find creative ways to overthrow a receiving corps with Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham and AJ Green.

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You answered your own question.... Rex is responsible because he paid no attention to the offense, he was so inept on offense that he allowed suspect coaches and coordinators run it completely. So he was directly responsible for Geno and Mark.

Well MM was with the 49'ers, Packers and OC and asst HC under Andy Reid so does that make Reid a idiot?? Sparano(Who I didn't like) was from the Tuna's Cowboy staff and he hired him to be the Fins HC in 2008.. I totally agree the HC is responsible for players on both sides of the ball yet Bowles doesn't seem to get blamed for making Geno the QB with no competition.. 

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For every QB who sucked for 2 years then went on to greatness or even being a solid starter, there's probably 50 who went on to suck forever.  Everyone points to the Eli example but even he had 24 TD's/17 INT's his 2nd season with nearly 4,000 yards.  Eli was bad his first couple years but he wasn't godawful.  People like to pretend they're all the same QB's those first couple years.  They're not.

 

And I'm soooooo tired of the "He never had enough support" argument.  Good QB's make their weapons better, rarely if ever does that occur the other way around.  Not to mention Geno had plenty of weapons last year, especially when we added Percy Harvin.  He was still even worse than his rookie year.  Sanchez had the same excuses.  Guess what, he had tons of weapons in Philly and a good offensive coach.  He still was horrible.  Bad QB's are bad QB's no matter what circumstances you provide them.  Geno and Sanchez are the types that would find creative ways to overthrow a receiving corps with Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham and AJ Green.

What are you talking about?  All i said is the list is all the QBs who had similar starts and went on to fail and that there are many who started just as badly and went of to produce.  

 

And you can be sick of the "He never had enough support" argument but its relevant.  No 1st or 2nd year QB is going to take the sh1t he had and turn it into a productive offense.  

 

You realize that youre helping to make my point?  When Geno came back after his benching with Harvin up and running, who is hardly a productive player...hes hit and miss from game to game most of his career, he had a 2-1 TD to INT ratio, had a 66 or so completion % and a QB rating in the upper 90s over 6 games.  

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All FO did is come up with 10 QB's whose numbers match Geno's for the first 2 seasons. There's nothing in there that says they only picked QB's that went on to be failures, ignoring the ones who had success. Why is it so surprising that those 10 guys turned out to be horrible? It would take an act of providence for Geno to suddenly become an effective starter in this league. And much like Sanchez, the longer we hold out hope, the quicker our window closes.

[furrows brow, looks around, shrugs, raises hand]

Window for what?

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Well MM was with the 49'ers, Packers and OC and asst HC under Andy Reid so does that make Reid a idiot?? Sparano(Who I didn't like) was from the Tuna's Cowboy staff and he hired him to be the Fins HC in 2008.. I totally agree the HC is responsible for players on both sides of the ball yet Bowles doesn't seem to get blamed for making Geno the QB with no competition..

Bowles won't get blamed until he has a product on the field that fails, MM failed with the jets staff he was hired to work with for what ever reason...... I think success will be tied to a good staff and team, Rex was unable to determine the people he needed to work with that would make his staff succeed, and I still don't think Rex is capable of being that type of leader that can lead an entire staff, I believe he is good at smaller leadership roles.

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