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The last 8 years of drafting QBs. Time for some perspective Jets fans...


Paradis

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I posted this at the other board, but there's a few obssessant Geno haters who ought to take a few minutes to read this. (Note, i'm not a geno apologist). Lets take a moment to actually reflect on what the reality of QB success is. 

 

 

Below I've listed all the QBs drafted in rounds 1 and 2 since 2007, and 8 year sample (...number of relevant QBs taken after round 2 is negligible). For obvious reasons I didn't include the 2014 class. 

Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Pat White
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Jimmy Clausen
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Brock Osweiler
EJ Manuel
Geno Smith

Total: 29  (17/11)


Out of the league entirely, or career on life support:
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Brian Brohm
Josh Freeman
Pat White
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Blaine Gabbert

Total: 11 (7/4)... Aprox 38% of QBs drafted in rounds one and two, including 80% of the 2007 class, are not even in the conversation today.

 
No longer seen as a (or didn't developed into) viable starter in the NFL. AKA Backup.
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Mark Sanchez
Jimmy Clausen
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel

Total: 6 (3/3)... 20% became Backups. Together with the washouts, that's nearly 60% of all QBs, including a STAGGERING 75% of ALL QBs drafted before 2011... This sample suggest if you go back more than 4 years, 75% of all QBs drafted in the first 2 rounds will be out of the league or holding a clipboard.... What's interesting here? All of them besides our very own Mark Sanchez, needed only a year to expose themselves as back up caliber talent. Tells you what we here in "New York" know about developing a QB. We had career back up under our noses and continued to pretend he wasn't.


Jury's still out on this group for various reasons:
Sam Bradford
Robert Griffin
Brock Osweiler
Geno Smith

Total: 4 (2/2)... 14% are still on the fence. 2 of them had injury issues, 1 is being tutored, and the other has had mixed results on a questionable team.


NFL Starters:
Matt Ryan*
Joe Flacco***
Matt Stafford*
Cam Newton*
Andy Dalton*
Colin Kaepernick**
Andrew Luck*
Ryan Tannehill
(*= playoffs/Superbowl/Winner)

Total: 8 (6/2)... 28% are considered viable starters in the NFL. Some more successful than others, but nonetheless, they'd be starting on someone's team. 

Interesting notes:

--Outside of those fabled 8, only 3 played in playoffs; Sanchez, Tebow, Griffin. 
--The success rate of the first QB taken in the draft is 80%, which is remarkably high. If you concede Bradford's health kept him off that list, and Geno really should have gone before Manuel, its nearly 100%.
--None of the 8 starters were "discovered" by a 2nd team. In other words, it's not like one franchise didn't know what they had, and someone else discovered a diamond in the rough. If you suck, you suck. 
--Within 4 years, 80% of them are either out of the league or forgettable backups. Conversely 80% of those who become starters for more than 3 years, tend to stay starters for the majority of their careers.
--Of the QBs taken in rnds 1-2, who did develop into viable starters -- almost all of them have taken their team into the playoffs. That's a very promising stat to remember. 


Conclusions:

Feel free to draw your own meaning from this, but I'll tell you what I see; the "nurture vs nature" dichotomy argument. Some will say, draft QBs in volume it's a numbers game until you hit on one (nature). While others will say, it's a numbers game, you're going to chase your tail and never know what you got because it requires patience to find out (nurture). 

Solution A) Draft a QB every year till you finally hit on one
Problem: Statistically speaking, chances of you actually hitting on that pick is about 1 in 5, UNLESS if you have the first pick. 1/5 isn't a statistic a franchise can afford to gamble away their 1st/2nd pick on yearly.

Solution B ) Groom your QB for at least 3 years, as statistically by year 4 they either get it, or they're out of the league.
Problem: We simply don't have time to wait around for 3 years to find out if we hit on the 20%-28%

Solution C) Just trade the farm away for the 1st pick and take the top QB, the success rate is 80%-100%
Problem: Not so fast. I didn't say superbowl winning QB. There's a reasonable chance Matt Ryan, Cam Newton never amount to anything more than Jay Cutler & Michael Vick.


What I'm taking away from all this:
You gotta put in the time. There's no way around it. 

Manning and Luck are not individuals you can use as measuring sticks, and even they didn't look at the good early on. Rodgers, Rivers, Alex Smith, Flacco, Brees, Romo, Eli, etc etc.. 80-90% off all successful QBs had to be developed, on or off the field. Nobody but the physically gifted will ever look that great in the first couple years. And some of them will actually get worse if they rely on that too heavily on said gifts (Griffin, Kaep). I think when you get carried away playing the numbers game, you BECOME the 75% washout rate. Manuel, Gabbert, Ponder, these guys had no right being taken as early as they were, and DEFINITELY no right starting games in the first 1-2 years. 

It comes down to support, coaching, and development. Support of a good defense and fcking playmakers, coaches that understand how and when to increase your reps and playbook, and patience to get there.


******************

SO... WHERE DOES GENO FIT? 

 

...Is he a statistic? Is 20ish games really a good enough sample size for him?

 

Lets ask ourselves:

 

Did Geno come from a pro-style offense before being asked to play in one? (yes/no)

Was Geno allowed to sit for 1-2 years to develop his game, or be groomed appropriately? (yes/no)

Did Geno have a strong supporting cast of playmakers, and a competent veteran QB be tutored by? (yes/no)

Did the coaching staff and coordinators have a history of developing QBs? (yes/no)

 

I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year. 
 

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Good research that tells me the Jets should trade the farm for the first QB in the 2016 draft (unless Geno or Brice proves different)

 

I understand there were no good options this year but the strength of the roster is good for another 3-5 years and they deserve a starting NFL QB to take them (and us) to the playoffs and beyond

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Thanks for taking the time looking into this. It matters not how many NFL games he's played so far.

Considering he was thrown into service way too early his 1st year can be thrown right into the toilet. He was playing from the seat of his pants in an offense that he'll never see again.

The only thing he gained from his 1st year was how much FASTER the NFL game is & how to run & slide to save your azz from getting killed.

Every QB that talks about their 1st year mentions the SPEED of the game.

Also he did learn a lot more about taking snaps from center & learning snap cadence but he still has a lot further to go in those nuances (play fakes, play action) to where it becomes 2nd nature.

I look at it that he played 15 games in the NFL. Though Marty & Lee seemed incompetent to me trying to force feed a very complicated offense in a cram course training camp, he did get better tutoring from Lee and I'm sure he learned a lot more than he did in that 1st year which I guarantee you is just a blur in Genos past.

So unlike everybody here, I look at this as his 2nd year. But, he's finally got an OC who will try to specifically design an offense around his skill set & Chan has some NFL tape to use to help him accomplish that.

Look at the QBs picked in the 1st round. The QBs that had quality coaching started in a "system" that hasn't changed from year to year.

Flacco, Wilson, Kaepernick (not surprising he struggled/ Oline hurt/Crabtree & Davis shells of themselves), Luck, Tannyhill.

Look how RGIII has struggled since being injured & their coaching changes.

I believe that if Geno can have some success now that he has more weapons than he's ever had (veteran weapons), Amaro no longer a rookie, slightly revamped Oline (no more Winters experiments), his confidence & the confidence of his teammates in him will have the effect needed to keep his head in the game.

A lot of these young players enter this league with an ego that gets the sh*t knocked out of it early. They start questioning themselves even though they put on the brave front. (Geno lashing out at being booed & ridiculed) was nothing more than cocky attitude being kicked in the teeth.

But I will say this & I've said it before. Geno has shown he's no pussy. He's taken some hellacious shots like in Greenbay when Winters whiffed on his block. He's taken shots at his knees from Chandler Jones that would have easily drawn flags if it were Tom Brady.

He's been benched & taunted by fans as bad as Ryan Leaf who lost his mind, but Geno keeps getting off the mat, dusts himself off & keeps coming back & finishing strong.

Say what you will but Genos got moxie & if he's gonna fail he's going down fighting.

You have to admire that. I wish him all the best & hope that we've found our QB.

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i think Geno deserves a shot, esp due to lack of options. with that being said Tennehill was a friggin converted wide receiver, did he "sit and learn for 2 years"? :)

 

i do appreciate that different players develop differently.

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Thanks for the analysis. The closest thing I've seen from the peanut gallery is the "strategy" of throwing games to get a high draft slot. And that begs the question as to whether there is a quarterback prospect in a given draft worthy of doing so (let's play close attention to the career trajectory of Winston and Mariota). Of the eight starters mentioned, only one has won a SB. Most of that list has done no better than Mark Sanchez, and that includes the once in a generation Andrew Luck. Guys like Griffin and Bradford have done nothing to raise their teams above mediocrity. So even if the Jets had been in a position to draft one of these players and not sold the farm to do so, what would they really have? Would Joe Flacco or Sam Bradford change the fortunes of this organization? I think it's safe to say 'no.' Hell, even Phillip Rivers hasn't won crap, or Matt Ryan for that matter. So what does all that say about the magic QB paradigm? Perhaps that winning is more complicated than one player. Always has been.

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Thanks for the analysis. The closest thing I've seen from the peanut gallery is the "strategy" of throwing games to get a high draft slot. And that begs the question as to whether there is a quarterback prospect in a given draft worthy of doing so (let's play close attention to the career trajectory of Winston and Mariota). Of the eight starters mentioned, only one has won a SB. Most of that list has done no better than Mark Sanchez, and that includes the once in a generation Andrew Luck. Guys like Griffin and Bradford have done nothing to raise their teams above mediocrity. So even if the Jets had been in a position to draft one of these players and not sold the farm to do so, what would they really have? Would Joe Flacco or Sam Bradford change the fortunes of this organization? I think it's safe to say 'no.' Hell, even Phillip Rivers hasn't won crap, or Matt Ryan for that matter. So what does all that say about the magic QB paradigm? Perhaps that winning is more complicated than one player. Always has been.

True that.. Otherwise the Jets never would have been able to knock both Brady and Manning out of the playoffs..

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"I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year."

 

I disagree with your last line, some good info in your thread but the player in question has had two years to show something.  Year one he gets a pass for the reasons you suggested.  Year two he made no meaningful improvement.  This sets off alarm bells for me.  As of the end of last year the job is 100% totally up for grabs.  You can't lose years off the careers of guys like Revis, Richardson, Wilkerson etc just to hope a guy gets it by year 3.

 

Due to the injury of Fitz Geno will get the best chance to start, he better look really good or he should be on the bench very quickly.  And when I say very good I don't mean he has to light the world on fire.  I mean he has to avoid turnovers.

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Paradis-did you do all of this work and writing yourself? Because if you did, I just want to tell you that this is great work. I LOVE these kinds of posts, you know-stuff with actual FACTS that were researched.

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"I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year."

 

I disagree with your last line, some good info in your thread but the player in question has had two years to show something.  Year one he gets a pass for the reasons you suggested.  Year two he made no meaningful improvement.  This sets off alarm bells for me.  As of the end of last year the job is 100% totally up for grabs.  You can't lose years off the careers of guys like Revis, Richardson, Wilkerson etc just to hope a guy gets it by year 3.

 

Due to the injury of Fitz Geno will get the best chance to start, he better look really good or he should be on the bench very quickly.  And when I say very good I don't mean he has to light the world on fire.  I mean he has to avoid turnovers.

Hard to argue with that. Above average Geno gives us a fighting chance against anyone. The Geno we've seen has literally single-handedly lost multiple games due to poor play. That's unacceptable.

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Hard to argue with that. Above average Geno gives us a fighting chance against anyone. The Geno we've seen has literally single-handedly lost multiple games due to poor play. That's unacceptable.

It's gonna be all about the turnovers. Bowles comes from the Parcells tree & has already said, "we need to take care of the ball 1st & foremost".

But, football is a team sport & I guarantee you besides the handful of just outright horrible Geno decisions lies some picks that tape proves it was not all on Geno.

I think back to that pick in the Greenbay game when 1st, Winters completely whiffs on his block, then Sudfeld makes a freaking lame attempt to stop it from being picked.

This year our WRs & TEs need to start WANTING the ball. Start going after it! Brandon Marshalls a guy that can show the rest of these guys how it's done! Decker started attacking the ball when he got healthy, Amaro should be much more comfortable in his 2nd camp & Devin Smith was being lauded throughout the predraft process as a guy that's amazing at tracking the long ball.

Genos gonna need some help!

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"I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year."

 

I disagree with your last line, some good info in your thread but the player in question has had two years to show something.  Year one he gets a pass for the reasons you suggested.  Year two he made no meaningful improvement.  This sets off alarm bells for me.  As of the end of last year the job is 100% totally up for grabs.  You can't lose years off the careers of guys like Revis, Richardson, Wilkerson etc just to hope a guy gets it by year 3.

 

Due to the injury of Fitz Geno will get the best chance to start, he better look really good or he should be on the bench very quickly.  And when I say very good I don't mean he has to light the world on fire.  I mean he has to avoid turnovers.

i think this coach and this Gm will not let any player take us to another top 10 pick I believe we are in good hands i hope the best for Geno but if he craps the bed they will sit him for good
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i think Geno deserves a shot, esp due to lack of options. with that being said Tennehill was a friggin converted wide receiver, did he "sit and learn for 2 years"? :)

 

i do appreciate that different players develop differently.

 

I didn't say every QB has to sit for 2 years, but just about every QB will need to develop for a couple years. Tannehill's first 2 seasons with MIA didn't look drastically different from Geno's... Less sloppy and mistake prone, but same hemisphere. 

 

 

 

"I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year."

 

I disagree with your last line, some good info in your thread but the player in question has had two years to show something.  Year one he gets a pass for the reasons you suggested.  Year two he made no meaningful improvement.  This sets off alarm bells for me.  As of the end of last year the job is 100% totally up for grabs.  You can't lose years off the careers of guys like Revis, Richardson, Wilkerson etc just to hope a guy gets it by year 3.

 

Due to the injury of Fitz Geno will get the best chance to start, he better look really good or he should be on the bench very quickly.  And when I say very good I don't mean he has to light the world on fire.  I mean he has to avoid turnovers.

 

 

I actually think you agree with what i was saying... By "give him year 3" i certainly don't mean he should be given 16 games free of reproach and consequence. I think book of Geno will write itself this year. If he plays well in September, he will of course earn some leash, and more time at the helm. If he faceplants, he'll be on the bench and that book will be closed... But i do think he 100% needs to be given that shot in September (barring a total collapse in TC). 

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I didn't say every QB has to sit for 2 years, but just about every QB will need to develop for a couple years. Tannehill's first 2 seasons with MIA didn't look drastically different from Geno's... Less sloppy and mistake prone, but same hemisphere. 

 

 

 

 

 

Well hopefully Geno has the turnaround that Tannehill did in year 3 with 27 td's 12 picks over 4,000 yds and completed 66% of his passes.. If Geno does that the Jets are in the playoffs and if Brady does sit for 4 games have a shot at winning the east..

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"I'll say this, he should be given year 3 to answer those questions, and we will know where things unequivocally sit next year."

 

I disagree with your last line, some good info in your thread but the player in question has had two years to show something.  Year one he gets a pass for the reasons you suggested.  Year two he made no meaningful improvement.  This sets off alarm bells for me.  As of the end of last year the job is 100% totally up for grabs.  You can't lose years off the careers of guys like Revis, Richardson, Wilkerson etc just to hope a guy gets it by year 3.

 

Due to the injury of Fitz Geno will get the best chance to start, he better look really good or he should be on the bench very quickly.  And when I say very good I don't mean he has to light the world on fire.  I mean he has to avoid turnovers.

Geno's first year, he had a 55.8 comp%, year two it was 59.7.

TD% year one, 2.7; year two, 3.5.

Int% year one, 4.7; year two, 3.5.

So he improved over three major categories, all while maintaining a decent 6.9 ypa, under (allegedly) poor coaching, with poor weapons. They've improved the weapons around him this year, now it's up to them to improve the coaching - and up to Geno to respond to that coaching. Obviously, they feel that's worth the effort.

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Well hopefully Geno has the turnaround that Tannehill did in year 3 with 27 td's 12 picks over 4,000 yds and completed 66% of his passes.. If Geno does that the Jets are in the playoffs and if Brady does sit for 4 games have a shot at winning the east..

 

100%. ..and that's what i want to see too. If Geno is legit, then i expect his numbers to look something like that. The table is set. 

 

 

If it doesn't happen, well, we've done our due diligence and its onto the Cardale Jones sweepstakes. 

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"I am not a Geno apologist..." AKA how every Geno apology begins

Look, I don't think it was a bad draft pick to use a 2nd rounder on Geno. But what cannot be justified is flushing another year down the crapper after it is obvious he isn't the guy.

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"I am not a Geno apologist..." AKA how every Geno apology begins

Look, I don't think it was a bad draft pick to use a 2nd rounder on Geno. But what cannot be justified is flushing another year down the crapper after it is obvious he isn't the guy.

 

 

Too many here make everything about picking "sides". I'm a fan of the Jets. Sometimes I like to cheer for them too, or at least fantasize in an optimistic manner.

 

Starting Geno doesn't equate to flushing another year down the crapper. Not with a new cast and OC. Starting Geno with MM and the same ensemble as last year -- and expecting different results... now that IS flushing another season down the toilet. 

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He's been benched & taunted by fans as bad as Ryan Leaf who lost his mind, but Geno keeps getting off the mat, dusts himself off & keeps coming back & finishing strong.

Say what you will but Genos got moxie & if he's gonna fail he's going down fighting.

You have to admire that. I wish him all the best & hope that we've found our QB.

 

I think it's fairly obvious with guys like Gabbert, Manuel, Clausen. You know right away; Nope! Not happening... I didn't get that sense from Geno. Facepalm plays, absolutely. But those other guys never had the good games that Geno did. 

 

I want to see him put it together and take the next step in 2015, or get the hell out of the way. 

 

Paradis-did you do all of this work and writing yourself? Because if you did, I just want to tell you that this is great work. I LOVE these kinds of posts, you know-stuff with actual FACTS that were researched.

 

I did, i wasted a couple hours last night preparing that diatribe, lol. Oh well. I got it off my chest. Hopefully it connects with a few posters. 

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I think it's fairly obvious with guys like Gabbert, Manuel, Clausen. You know right away; Nope! Not happening... I didn't get that sense from Geno. Facepalm plays, absolutely. But those other guys never had the good games that Geno did.

Exactly. Not long ago i remember someone on TV saying Parcells once told him that if a young QB flashes in some way in his first two years, then you have to give him a shot in that crucial third season. I think that is what is happening with Geno.

Despite looking pretty terrible these two seasons, he's also on occasion played well. He has upside, and you have to give him that last chance to reach it. If he doesn't show it in the preseason or September, then you make the change to Fitz.

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All This just to say it's OK that we suck at picking QB's???

No, we suck at developing QBs and worse, understanding what it takes to develop a QB.  Both as a Coaching Staff and a fan base.

 

Peyton Manning was developed, and so was Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and any of the great QBs we watch today.  Andrew Luck is in the process of being developed.

Kaep was allowed to do what he did in college and now it has become a problem

RG3 got injured and lord knows what he will become.

Matt Ryan is a very good QB, but IMO, He's not a Franchise QB. 

 

 

 

 

In My opinion, Geno Smith has more natural Ability than any of the QBs not Listed in that Last column and some who are.  He needs to be developed.

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Too many here make everything about picking "sides". I'm a fan of the Jets. Sometimes I like to cheer for them too, or at least fantasize in an optimistic manner.

Starting Geno doesn't equate to flushing another year down the crapper. Not with a new cast and OC. Starting Geno with MM and the same ensemble as last year -- and expecting different results... now that IS flushing another season down the toilet.

The second Geno is on the field i am all in on him and will root for him to put it all together. The offseason is for opinions but i Totally agree with you we are all on the same side--the green one. Good post.
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Outstanding OP.

 

Thank you :)

 

The key is you point out that quality QB play isn't magic as some have suggested out here but rather at a minimum a development.  That an organization must have a plan in order to thrive is crystal clear and going from one fad QB to another will not produce winning QB play.

 

So I again say thank you!

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No, we suck at developing QBs and worse, understanding what it takes to develop a QB.  Both as a Coaching Staff and a fan base.

 

Peyton Manning was developed, and so was Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and any of the great QBs we watch today.  Andrew Luck is in the process of being developed.

Kaep was allowed to do what he did in college and now it has become a problem

RG3 got injured and lord knows what he will become.

Matt Ryan is a very good QB, but IMO, He's not a Franchise QB. 

 

 

 

 

In My opinion, Geno Smith has more natural Ability than any of the QBs not Listed in that Last column and some who are.  He needs to be developed.

 

 

Please reread this post!!

 

Spot on!!

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Exactly. Not long ago i remember someone on TV saying Parcells once told him that if a young QB flashes in some way in his first two years, then you have to give him a shot in that crucial third season. I think that is what is happening with Geno.

Despite looking pretty terrible these two seasons, he's also on occasion played well. He has upside, and you have to give him that last chance to reach it. If he doesn't show it in the preseason or September, then you make the change to Fitz.

I don't know about flashing upside but there is really no other option for this team. Old man fitz on a 1 year deal isnt going to scare any nfl defenses.

Idzik ****ed this team in '14 when he passed on every qb available for all 7 rounds and 12 picks. Now it's 1 more tryout year with geno and if he sucks then they push all in for hackenburg / cook.

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