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Kerley vs Smith; The Battle For # 3


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Smith Kerley

The Jets revamped their downtrodden WR group this offseason by adding a bona fide No. 1 WR in Brandon Marshall, allowing Eric Decker to slide into the upper tier of No. 2 WRs around the league.  The duo gives the Jets one of the better one-two punches at the WR position in the league, and for the first time in a long time, legit weaponry for whoever is deemed the QB.  The most interesting battle on the offense, should be for the No. 3 WR spot, because this has a major impact on the team, and the surrounding cast.   The Jets new offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, loves to spread out the field, and play a high amount of snaps with three or more WRs on the field, alas the 3rd WR spot can almost be considered a starter.   The two main contestants in this race are Jeremy Kerley and rookie Devin Smith.  Let’s examine each of their cases:

Jeremy Kerley

Jeremy KerleyThe fifth year WR has been one of the few bright spots on offense for the past four years, and received a contract extension last year, making him the third highest paid receiver on the team as of now.   Kerley, however is coming off a down year, with the stats barely beating out his rookie year numbers on a per game basis.   On the other hand, the Jets haven’t surrounded Kerley with much talent around him, thus negating the chance for open spaces in which No. 3 WRs usually thrive.  The Jets lack of ability to beat man coverage, stemming from a lack of talent at the top two spots, meant there were more safeties and linebackers around the middle of the field, which is Kerley’s area of expertise.  If the Jets can get other teams to respect Marshall and Decker, then the middle of the field opens up, and causes more open space for the slants and out routes that Kerley thrives on.

Positives: 

  • Veteran connection- The Jets will be working in a new WR in Brandon Marshall, so if the QB is Geno Smith, then he’s already learning the preferences of one new WR. It might behoove the team to let Kerley start at the No. 3 spot as a familiar face and someone Geno Smith might already have a connection with from the last two years.
  • New found opportunities- The middle of the field can’t be nearly as crowded as it used to be in past years, causing more open space in the middle, and Kerley thrives in these routes.
  • Money- Teams usually don’t like to admit that they want to bench a guy making good money, even though Kerley’s salary isn’t outrageous, it is still in line with what No. 3 type WRs would make.  For example, Michael Crabtree makes slightly more money this year.
  • Prior Production- Kerley has shown himself to be productive on the NFL level, something which can’t be said of Smith, and that experience can only help out at the start of the season. He’s faced NFL level cornerbacks, and is probably more advanced at reading the defense.
  • New OC- The Chan Gailey offense does have up tempo variants, that cause the QB to read the defense at the line and adjust plays, thus having someone proven like Kerley can go a long way in terms of execution of the offense and dissection of the defense.

Negatives:  

  • Lack of Speed- Kerley doesn’t posses top end speed, and thus the opposing defense doesn’t have to shade a safety to his side.  He is a horizontal player, that relies on quick change of direction skills to create space.  With Marshall and Decker being more possession type receivers than pure burners, this offense would be missing a true speed threat.
  • Production Dip- Kerley has seen his production dip for two straight years, coinciding with the years in which Geno Smith has been the starter.  Considering part of the issue with Geno Smith has been going over the middle, and not seeing backside help defenders, this could mean the incumbent QB’s abilities don’t match up well with Kerley’s talent.

Devin Smith  

devin smithThe rookie out of OSU is widely regarded as one of the best deep pass trackers to come out of the draft, and provides an element of speed and ability to catch the ball, that hasn’t been seen for years with the Jets.   You can watch game tape of Devin Smith here, and see how he has done against some good competition.

Positives:  (Based on tapes and scouting reports)

  • Very Good Hands- If you watch the tapes, you’ll see that he catches with his hands, and almost always is looking to move after the catch.  Even though his size isn’t big, he plays above his size with an excellent vertical jump, and exquisite timing on his jumps.
  • Speed In Spades- You know scouts think you are fast on tape, when a 4.42 forty yard dash was seen as disappointing.   Smith consistently shows the ability to fly by defenders and create havoc for safeties.
  • System Fit- Smith is coming from a spread offense, so the transition to another spread offense isn’t going to be as drastic, unlike a West Coast system that relies on exemplary timing between the QB and the WR.
  • Roster Fit- As mentioned earlier, Marshall and Decker are more possession receivers than speed burners, so having a WR like Smith changes the dynamics for the opposing defenses.  They have to move the safety over to protect against the deep pass, or have whoever is covering Smith play off coverage, and leave easier slants and out routes.
  • Dynamic Ability- If you look at his measurables, they are very similar to Odell Beckham Jr’s measurables.   They have similar height, similar forty yard dash times, similar verticals, and similar broad jumps.  Beckham was faster in the 20 yard shuttle, and slightly faster in the 3 cone drill.  Don’t get it wrong, Beckham is the better prospect, but the physical abilities aren’t that far off, and the whole NFL saw what Odell could do last year.  They are also similar in the fact that their college stats were limited because of the system in which they played in, and the preferences of their coaches.

Negatives: 

  • Route Tree- Smith did not run the full route tree in college, and was mostly used on vertical routes in college, so his ability to run the full route tree can’t be seen on tape.  While Smith says, he can run all the routes, it’s still to be seen in game film.
  • Rookie- With last year being out of the norm, rookie WRs rarely make a huge impact because there is a big adjustment from CBs in the Big Ten to the NFL, where you can no longer get by on just physical gifts.  While the recent onslaught of rookie stars clouds the minds of fans, the odds are against him having a breakout first year.

The Jets, for once, have a good problem on their hands, since they have two good players vying for what is essentially a starting role in the new system.  It’ll also be an interesting study in the new regime’s connections to the old regime, as Kerley is the veteran that was resigned by the old regime, and drafted by an older regime.  Smith is the handpicked draft pick from the new regime, that fits all the needs of the team, thus it’ll be interesting to see how loyal they remain to the veteran in Kerley, or if they want to implement the rookie in his place.  The competition should be fascinating as the established veteran goes against the dynamic rookie.  Most likely, Kerley starts off the year as the No. 3 WR as Smith gets his feet wet as the No. 4, and then takes over the spot later in the year, similar to Martavis Bryant from last year for the Steelers.

 

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I like Kerley, but I wouldn't mind seeing someone with speed out there. Kerley makes me sweat when he fields punts.

 

I think after next year Kerley will be gone, but he'll probably be the #3 for a good portion of this year. 

 

This is also assuming that no one gets hurt, at which point it's a moot point.

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Kerley extension was Idzicks worst move, and that's saying a lot

 

Kerley deserved an extension and the contract he was given was not unreasonable. Idzik did a few things right (Richardson, trading away Revis (who we couldn't afford at the time), fixing our cap so that we could get Revis back) he will never get credit for the good things he did but instead he will be bashed over his draft class of "busts" who have not yet been given a chance to prove themselves (logically we are not going to keep 12 players from one draft so not all of them should be on the roster anymore) the worst thing Idzik did was that he was cheap with the cap space he had and ended up setting Rex up for failure (either intentionally or unintentionally at this point it doesn't matter). Kerley is a reliable target who brings a few more tricks to the table (like the time he threw a 40 yard touchdown) he isn't worth the money of a top dollar receiver obviously but he is worth the money that was offered to him.

 

 

I feel more than ever that Kerley's deal last year was Idzik's "fu" on his inevitable way out.

 

Yea, I know how you feel. Signing a decent receiver to a reasonable contract is definitely saying fu to the team and fanbase who were mostly happy that Kerley was extended when it happened. Kerley got a reasonable deal for what he brings to the table, its not like we are giving him Calvin Johnson money.

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We absolutely could have afforded Revis at the time. Idzik was just a cheap moron who didn't even so much as MAKE AN OFFER!!!!

 

The year we traded Revis we 1) Absolutely could not afford to give him the type of contract he wanted and 2) were smart enough not to give him that kind of contract as he was coming off a major injury. Trading him at that point to the highest bidder was in the best interest of the team and was the smart move to make.

 

The year after we traded him when the Bucs cut him we could have afforded to pay him and perhaps we should have but there were reports that Woody didn't want Revis back so it might not have been 100% Idziks fault there either.

 

I don't want anyone to take this the wrong way because I am very happy with our new GM and I am very happy with our new HC I just don't think Idzik deserves all of the crap everyone gives him.

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Hoping Smith can turn out to give us a down the field threat for defenses to worry about. Much different from kerley

 

Smith is, but I am most interested to see if he can do any damage underneath.  He looked so good catching deep balls that people are acting like he will just be a good/great version of Stephen Hill, but I want to see if he can get some YAC and work underneath

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Kerley is much more of a slot guy than Smith, and as the veteran, will likely get the nod there to start the year. Smith missed a lot of practice with his new baby, and that probably sets him back a little.

Best case scenario for the Jets is Devin catching on quickly and manning the outside, sliding Decker into the slot.

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Idzik did a few things right

 

fixing our cap 

 

(logically we are not going to keep 12 players from one draft so not all of them should be on the roster anymore)

 

I will start by saying that even though I detest Idzik, I do not mind the Kerley extension.  However, I still am amazed at how many people want to give Idiotzik credit for "fixing the cap" by simply releasing guys like Holmes, Sanchez, Scott, Cro and Pace when their cap numbers dictated it.  I refuse to give him credit for making moves that 100% of other GM's would also make.

 

With respect to the 12 players, who's idea was it to keep all 12 picks when it would have made sense to package a few and move up because keeping all 12 was a remote possibility even if his draft was not the abomination it has proved to be?

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Maybe with one of the 12 he could have drafted a WR in the strongest WR draft in history that could crack the weakest WR group in the NFL? 

Well said.   That's one of the biggest issues with his draft last season.

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Everyone assumes that decker and Marshall will play outside in 3 and 4 receiver sets.

I can see Smith playing outside a fair amount and one of those guys sliding in, whereas Kerley is exclusively a slot guy. Decker and Marshall are good route runners and could exploit the middle against nickel backs or LBs.

I like Kerley as we'll and am really excited for the 4 wideout sets, some trips formations and even 5 receiver patterns with all these guys and Amaro.

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Everyone assumes that decker and Marshall will play outside in 3 and 4 receiver sets.

I can see Smith playing outside a fair amount and one of those guys sliding in, whereas Kerley is exclusively a slot guy. Decker and Marshall are good route runners and could exploit the middle against nickel backs or LBs.

I like Kerley as we'll and am really excited for the 4 wideout sets, some trips formations and even 5 receiver patterns with all these guys and Amaro.

Completely agree.

Marshall or Decker could shift into the slot depending on who we're playing & down and distance.

Brandon is an absolute monster on 3rd & middling using his body to shield the defender.

You can't run threw him.

Marshall, Decker & Kerley all snatch the ball which is what you need when you move into the slot. Lot of people hovering around there so you need to attack the ball & turn up field.

Jets have great versatility at WR now, especially as Gailey slowly integrates Smith into the lineup.

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Maybe with one of the 12 he could have drafted a WR in the strongest WR draft in history that could crack the weakest WR group in the NFL? 

 

We still have 2/3 of the Recievers he drafted granted it will likely be down to 1 or 0 by the time roster cuts are done but I am interested to see what Evans can do, he didn't get much practice in last year as he was finishing up with school and he got hurt after only a few practices and was out for the season. I would hate to call him a bust before we get to see the kid though he will have to fight for a roster slot. I also think Saunders is going to have a good year even though he isn't on our roster anymore.

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Kerley deserved an extension and the contract he was given was not unreasonable. Idzik did a few things right (Richardson, trading away Revis (who we couldn't afford at the time), fixing our cap so that we could get Revis back) he will never get credit for the good things he did but instead he will be bashed over his draft class of "busts" who have not yet been given a chance to prove themselves (logically we are not going to keep 12 players from one draft so not all of them should be on the roster anymore) the worst thing Idzik did was that he was cheap with the cap space he had and ended up setting Rex up for failure (either intentionally or unintentionally at this point it doesn't matter). Kerley is a reliable target who brings a few more tricks to the table (like the time he threw a 40 yard touchdown) he isn't worth the money of a top dollar receiver obviously but he is worth the money that was offered to him.

 

 

 

Yea, I know how you feel. Signing a decent receiver to a reasonable contract is definitely saying fu to the team and fanbase who were mostly happy that Kerley was extended when it happened. Kerley got a reasonable deal for what he brings to the table, its not like we are giving him Calvin Johnson money.

I, for one, never bashed idziks entire draft. I bashed the early part of his draft, specifically, rounds 1,3,and 4. what most would consider the important part of the draft.

1st round- pryor. don't know what he was thinking here

3rd round-mcdougle. regardless of the player mcdougle may or may not turn out to be, was a reach here and a panic move to compensate for his failures in free agency

4th round-saunders. no explaination needed

the rest of the picks I am good with and time could prove them to be players.

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I, for one, never bashed idziks entire draft. I bashed the early part of his draft, specifically, rounds 1,3,and 4. what most would consider the important part of the draft.

1st round- pryor. don't know what he was thinking here

3rd round-mcdougle. regardless of the player mcdougle may or may not turn out to be, was a reach here and a panic move to compensate for his failures in free agency

4th round-saunders. no explaination needed

the rest of the picks I am good with and time could prove them to be players.

 

1) we needed a safety and I suspect that OBJ would have been our pick if the Giants had not stolen him early.

2) McDougle was a reach, I agree but I would rather them reach on players they think will be good than take the guy the "experts" say is a better prospect, also I don't think this was a panic move as that crazy guy we got from Miami didn't go crazy until after the draft so on paper we had a 1 and 2 corner.

3) as far as Saunders goes I agree and believe there were better prospects available I honestly think Saunders was a much bigger reach than McDougle .

 

At the end of the day it is easy to blame Idzik for drafting the guys you didn't like over the ones espn told you to like but keep in mind Idzik was a money guy not a personell guy and our scouting department had more to do with the guys we drafted I would think.

 

Also if we didn't have Idzik we wouldn't have Mac and Bowels now and I am pretty happy with what they have done so far.

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it is easy to blame Idzik for drafting the guys you didn't like over the ones espn told you to like

is this some kind of insult? I have eyes and for the record, I have forgotten more about football than most fans will ever know

 

Idzik was a money guy not a personell guy and our scouting department had more to do with the guys we drafted I would think

idzik was under qualified for a gm position. this is why he catches the " undeserved heat" as some say for doing a bad job. if you want to blame woody or rex, to some extent, feel free. but make no mistake, idzik will never sniff another gm job again.

 

1) we needed a safety and I suspect that OBJ would have been our pick if the Giants had not stolen him early

we needed a strong safety last year like we need another 1st round defensive lineman next year. I just don't see the reason behind taking a ss @18. he wasn't the best player available and he wasn't a need. besides that, I really don't understand how pryor garnered a 1st round grade in the first place. my only guess is the entire nfl world fell in love with his coupla knockout hits, the rest of his tape is not 1st round grade worthy. bottom line is you don't take a ss @18, especially the way the jets defense is built

 

2) McDougle was a reach, I agree but I would rather them reach on players they think will be good than take the guy the "experts" say is a better prospect, also I don't think this was a panic move as that crazy guy we got from Miami didn't go crazy until after the draft so on paper we had a 1 and 2 corner

on paper the jets had a 1-2 corner? dimitri Patterson a legit starter? now that's a joke. Patterson was another panic move by itself. even idzik knew Patterson wasn't the answer and made sure he got his guy mcdougle, albeit a round or 2 early.

  idzik is like a fat,slow kid at an easter egg hunt. he invisions grabbing up 50 eggs and doing a good job. but because of his limitations, he ends up with only 3 eggs and 2 are cracked

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Completely agree.

Marshall or Decker could shift into the slot depending on who we're playing & down and distance.

Brandon is an absolute monster on 3rd & middling using his body to shield the defender.

You can't run threw him.

Marshall, Decker & Kerley all snatch the ball which is what you need when you move into the slot. Lot of people hovering around there so you need to attack the ball & turn up field.

Jets have great versatility at WR now, especially as Gailey slowly integrates Smith into the lineup.

 

I think Amaro will be in the slot plenty too. 

 

We still have 2/3 of the Recievers he drafted granted it will likely be down to 1 or 0 by the time roster cuts are done but I am interested to see what Evans can do, he didn't get much practice in last year as he was finishing up with school and he got hurt after only a few practices and was out for the season. I would hate to call him a bust before we get to see the kid though he will have to fight for a roster slot. I also think Saunders is going to have a good year even though he isn't on our roster anymore.

 

Eh.  You want to count a guy that was cut and sat on the practice squad.  Evans is the only WR that wasn't cut by October.  

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