Jump to content

Geno Smith...behind the numbers to fix his game


njjetman

Recommended Posts

Geno Smith. Just uttering the name sends a shutter down the spine of New York Jets fans. Geno Smith has been one of the toughest quarterbacks for Jets fans to get a grasp of, in a long line of Jets quarterbacks. Smith has moments, and games where he shows great promise. But then, he has moments when we wonder if he can even make it in the NFL.

Geno Smith has all of the tools to make it in the NFL. He is athletic, and he can make every throw in the route tree. But, he has problems. So, how does he fix it? What does Smith have to do to turn the corner and become the Jets’ franchise quarterback.

To answer that, we must look at the numbers. But, not just the obvious ones. We need to go behind the numbers to see exactly where Geno Smith has fallen short (Pro Football Reference).

The overall problem is obvious, the touchdown to interception ratio. Smith’s career ratio is 25-34, which we all know is not good. But, when we look at the numbers more closely, there is improvement. His interception totals went from 21 in his rookie season to 13 last season. His completion percentage went from 55% to 59%. Smith’s passer rating jumped from 66.5 to 77.5. There is something there.

The biggest problem is his turnovers, so let’s break them down a bit more.

Jets fans might think that Smith’s biggest problems have been in the red zone. Although his turnovers have been more visible there, they haven’t happened that often. For his career, he has only thrown two interceptions in the red zone, vs. 15 touchdowns. Geno Smith has actually been quite good in the red zone.

The most interceptions Geno Smith has thrown have been between his own 21-50 yard line. OK, so is there a down and distance where he has thrown the most interceptions. Actually, there is.

On first and ten, Geno has thrown two touchdowns vs. 12 interceptions. On second and greater than 10 yards to go, Smith has thrown no touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Eliminate those two situations, and Geno Smith’s TD to INT ratio would be 25-14. Would that be elite? No. But would we see Geno Smith in an absolutely different light? Yes.

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that when Geno Smith is faced with adversity, he makes bad decisions. He feels like he HAS to make a play, he pushes too hard, and bad things happen.

So what will help Geno Smith? To start, great offensive line play. Not only from the concept of pass protection, but from the running game as well. The best way to keep Geno Smith feeling confident is to keep him from these second and long situations, and running the ball well on first down. Clearly, when Geno Smith feels in control, he makes good decisions. The numbers back it up. So, keep Geno Smith in positive situations, he will improve.

The improved weapons will help too. It’s no coincidence that the season the Jets added Eric Decker was the same season that Smith’s interceptions went from 21 to 13. Better weapons means better confidence. Better confidence means better decisions. Better decisions means better Geno Smith.

Yes, Geno Smith must make better decisions when faced with adversity. But the improvements around him will help. Smith has the ability to make good decisions. The numbers say so. With help, and better play on long down and distances, Smith can really be the franchise quarterback the New York Jets have been looking for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice write up. I have a question though, Geno was benched for how many games last year? I think it was around 3-4? I'm assuming he would've thrown more than 13 picks had he started more games. I think he started all 16 games his rookie year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice write up. I have a question though, Geno was benched for how many games last year? I think it was around 3-4? I'm assuming he would've thrown more than 13 picks had he started more games. I think he started all 16 games his rookie year.

He sat 3 games, played 13. But wouldn't the same logic say he would throw more TDs if he played more games, the same way we could guess he would throw more INTs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He sat 3 games, played 13. But wouldn't the same logic say he would throw more TDs if he played more games, the same way we could guess he would throw more INTs?

Yeah but he throws more ints than tds. The op also said he can make all the throws, he can't especially the long ball his biggest weakness.

The op summed it up. Geno wilts in the face of adversity, just got the reason wrong.

Sent from my Venue 8 7840 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He sat 3 games, played 13. But wouldn't the same logic say he would throw more TDs if he played more games, the same way we could guess he would throw more INTs?

Geno may not throw INTs in the red zone (Thank God) but he does not get TDs there a lot either.  A lot of his drives fizzle.  Now partly because Willie Colon gets a penalty, or partly because Geno backpedals himself out of field goal range, and probably partly because MM was an idiot, but I disagree that he is good in the red zone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Studying statistics is nice, but one thing about pro quarterbacks. There is no fixing inconsistent accuracy. NO pro QB has ever come in to the NFL with inconsistent accuracy and it became consistently good. Like a pro QB has to have. Almost anything else can be fixed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On first and ten, Geno has thrown two touchdowns vs. 12 interceptions. On second and greater than 10 yards to go, Smith has thrown no touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Eliminate those two situations, and Geno Smith’s TD to INT ratio would be 25-14. Would that be elite? No. But would we see Geno Smith in an absolutely different light? Yes.

 

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that when Geno Smith is faced with adversity, he makes bad decisions. He feels like he HAS to make a play, he pushes too hard, and bad things happen.

 

 

I agree that this suggests that the biggest issue is decision making.  1st & 2nd down is when you can safely throw the the ball away if nothing is there -- still have more downs to try to keep a drive going.  Third down is when you might sometimes take a chance (depending on down, distance & field position) since you are likely to give up the ball anyway if you don't do something on 3rd down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't sound to me like adversity being a problem, but more a problem with taking the check down, or a lack of a check down option.

Considering that Ivory, and Cumberland were on the field for most of these situations, and no 2nd receiver. Decker hurt much of the year. Kerley playing on the outside, or doubled in the slot.

Seems to me that Geno has the most trouble when a defense sits back in coverage, and Marty is trying to get big yardage. Neither one of them wanted anything to do with taking 5 yards on first and 10.

I still think Fitz is the better option, but I'm willing to see what the spread offence can do for Geno.

Just ingrain taking what the defense gives you into Geno's head. Get the ball out quickly and see what the receivers can do with it now that we have some.

Only after the defense starts cheating up do I want to take the top off.

Gailey's offense is well known for making lousy QBs look good. Geno may be the most physically talented QB Gailey has coached.

I'm ready to see what he can do...That said, If he doesn't look good I want him out and Fitz in, even in preseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't sound to me like adversity being a problem, but more a problem with taking the check down, or a lack of a check down option.

Considering that Ivory, and Cumberland were on the field for most of these situations, and no 2nd receiver. Decker hurt much of the year. Kerley playing on the outside, or doubled in the slot.

Seems to me that Geno has the most trouble when a defense sits back in coverage, and Marty is trying to get big yardage. Neither one of them wanted anything to do with taking 5 yards on first and 10.

I still think Fitz is the better option, but I'm willing to see what the spread offence can do for Geno.

Just ingrain taking what the defense gives you into Geno's head. Get the ball out quickly and see what the receivers can do with it now that we have some.

Only after the defense starts cheating up do I want to take the top off.

Gailey's offense is well known for making lousy QBs look good. Geno may be the most physically talented QB Gailey has coached.

I'm ready to see what he can do...That said, If he doesn't look good I want him out and Fitz in, even in preseason.

 

Nice post, and welcome :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah but he throws more ints than tds. The op also said he can make all the throws, he can't especially the long ball his biggest weakness.

The op summed it up. Geno wilts in the face of adversity, just got the reason wrong.

Sent from my Venue 8 7840 using Tapatalk

Yeah, except he didn't throw more INTs than TDs last year, he threw the same number of picks as TDs.  As much as that hurts the 'he didnt improve' crowd, he wasnt an INT machine with more picks than TDs.  So logic says he should go 1-1 the rest of the way.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't sound to me like adversity being a problem, but more a problem with taking the check down, or a lack of a check down option.

Considering that Ivory, and Cumberland were on the field for most of these situations, and no 2nd receiver. Decker hurt much of the year. Kerley playing on the outside, or doubled in the slot.

Seems to me that Geno has the most trouble when a defense sits back in coverage, and Marty is trying to get big yardage. Neither one of them wanted anything to do with taking 5 yards on first and 10.

I still think Fitz is the better option, but I'm willing to see what the spread offence can do for Geno.

Just ingrain taking what the defense gives you into Geno's head. Get the ball out quickly and see what the receivers can do with it now that we have some.

Only after the defense starts cheating up do I want to take the top off.

Gailey's offense is well known for making lousy QBs look good. Geno may be the most physically talented QB Gailey has coached.

I'm ready to see what he can do...That said, If he doesn't look good I want him out and Fitz in, even in preseason.

Solid post. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geno may not throw INTs in the red zone (Thank God) but he does not get TDs there a lot either.  A lot of his drives fizzle.  Now partly because Willie Colon gets a penalty, or partly because Geno backpedals himself out of field goal range, and probably partly because MM was an idiot, but I disagree that he is good in the red zone.

I didnt say anything about the red zone, never mind that he was good there.  I don't even know what his red zone numbers were, he needs to improve his whole game, getting crazy over red zone at this point is a little premature.  Let him get the game down then tweek the RZ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didnt say anything about the red zone, never mind that he was good there.  I don't even know what his red zone numbers were, he needs to improve his whole game, getting crazy over red zone at this point is a little premature.  Let him get the game down then tweek the RZ

 

 

I know.  I answered the wrong post.  I was actually meaning to answer the origin poster, who said he was quite good int he red zone/.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know.  I answered the wrong post.  I was actually meaning to answer the origin poster, who said he was quite good int he red zone/.

That's ok, figured it was meant for someone else. The last thing I think we are is efficient in the RZ, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, except he didn't throw more INTs than TDs last year, he threw the same number of picks as TDs. As much as that hurts the 'he didnt improve' crowd, he wasnt an INT machine with more picks than TDs. So logic says he should go 1-1 the rest of the way.

It's become trendy with most jet fans to dismiss Geno and say he's stupid and a 5 yr old girl would be a better qb.

Really in depth analysis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's become trendy with most jet fans to dismiss Geno and say he's stupid and a 5 yr old girl would be a better qb.

Really in depth analysis.

Most seem to think that second year QBs, learning how to play from under center, without a easy as it gets spread offense don't put up Rodgers like numbers in year 2. Especially without e benefit of any offensive tools. Decker alone isn't anywhere near a competent receiving core and no QB would excell with just a Decker and nothing else.

But some deluded fans will tell you that a good QB would.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most seem to think that second year QBs, learning how to play from under center, without a easy as it gets spread offense don't put up Rodgers like numbers in year 2. Especially without e benefit of any offensive tools. Decker alone isn't anywhere near a competent receiving core and no QB would excell with just a Decker and nothing else.

But some deluded fans will tell you that a good QB would.

Same people who blow Derek Carr and act like he dominated as a rookie because he threw bubble screens and beat out Matt Schaub

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geno may not throw INTs in the red zone (Thank God) but he does not get TDs there a lot either.  A lot of his drives fizzle.  Now partly because Willie Colon gets a penalty, or partly because Geno backpedals himself out of field goal range, and probably partly because MM was an idiot, but I disagree that he is good in the red zone.

 

IMO the single biggest reason for red zone failure was Rex's "afraid to lose" mentality.  He constantly believed his defense could win games with us just kicking FG's.  If Bowles/Gailey do nothing more than erase that mindset, I'll be happy this year...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

       In order for Geno Smith to get better at quarterback he has to make good decisions on where he is throwing the football and limit the interceptions to a minimum.  He needs to also check down all of his receivers effectively and make the smart throw to the open receiver. I hope he can fix the mistakes he does frequently. I hope he succeeds because he does have potential from what I saw some times when he played at West Virginia in college. The end of last season showed a glimmer of hope that he can become a good not great QB in this league. He has the receivers to throw to so it will be interesting to watch what he does which should be better then previous seasons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks the Guard positions are still a question mark. But really I think this is it for Geno. The offense isn't elite but it's a lot better than it was. I agree that Fitz is probably a better option. But I'm willing to give Geno the summer and preseason to show me something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah but he throws more ints than tds. The op also said he can make all the throws, he can't especially the long ball his biggest weakness.

The op summed it up. Geno wilts in the face of adversity, just got the reason wrong.

Sent from my Venue 8 7840 using Tapatalk

Incorrect. He went 1:1 TD to int ratio last year and was phenomenal with the deep ball when he had two starting caliber WRs (last few games of the year). You can argue the same level is not big enough. I can argue the other 8 game sample level is also not big enough but the clear difference in production when he had two good WRs is obvious.

Make your own judgement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geno may not throw INTs in the red zone (Thank God) but he does not get TDs there a lot either. A lot of his drives fizzle. Now partly because Willie Colon gets a penalty, or partly because Geno backpedals himself out of field goal range, and probably partly because MM was an idiot, but I disagree that he is good in the red zone.

2 ints to 15 TDs is pretty good for me. I'd rather he protect the ball when in FG range. And the back paddling we speak of, I'd like to know how many drives has that killed in two years? Maybe 2? Maybe 3? We're talking strictly back paddling. Not 6 yard sacks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest myth on this board and in Geno Smith's scouting report is that he can make all the throws. He may be physically able to but he's so inaccurate that there is no justifiable way you can actually make that claim. That said, he stinks.

I keep saying this, but it seems like beating a dead horse. Watch the games where he has two starting caliber WRs n then make that judgement. And then think about this: no one has ever claimed him to be elite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Decker alone isn't anywhere near a competent receiving core and no QB would excell with just a Decker and nothing else.

Well, Decker and Kerley.  But Decker was hurt a big part of last season and Kerley was out several games the year before, so target wise it's been pretty brutal.  A young QB needs his receivers to make some plays for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, Decker and Kerley. But Decker was hurt a big part of last season and Kerley was out several games the year before, so target wise it's been pretty brutal. A young QB needs his receivers to make some plays for him.

Peoe seem to forget this point n expect a Manning esque performance from a 2nd round rookie n carry it to his 2nd season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...