#27TheDominator Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I did it by accident I meant to just hit reply It's cool. I hope you are right. I'm not so sure that we should rate Marshall that much higher than Harvin, but I am certainly hopeful. If Smith can add something we may be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 It's cool. I hope you are right. I'm not so sure that we should rate Marshall that much higher than Harvin, but I am certainly hopeful. If Smith can add something we may be in business. Harvin has done nothing with his career... Marshall is a proven warrior... they aren't even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Ok then, I tend to agree with that sentiment, Then the last go get'em #1 WR they had was Walker Still overdone, we've had guys like Moss and Coles who were really good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNJet Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 KJ was a possession WR... He was good... never great... Dropped a lot of critical passes... Braylon was never close to anything but an average WR with very bad hands.. Sorry but KJ, Braylon, Cotchery, and even Chrebet, were all better than Rob Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsman1 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Sorry but KJ, Braylon, Cotchery, and even Chrebet, were all better than Rob Moore. Not even on the same level...and I loved Chrebet....but Rob Moore was a better athlete and player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetster Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I am not trying to make excuses for Geno. He may very well end up as a horrible QB. All I am saying is... Geno hasn't had someone to show him how to play QB yet and give him some weapons until now. These next few months will be very telling. Not having experienced WRs & playing with a banged up (hamstring) #2, playing #1 is a legit excuse in the NFL. When the Pats tried to go to the youngsters, Dobson & ?, it was an EPIC failure, Brady had a horrible start to the season & they eventually cut both, signed a veteran & moved on. F*cking Matt Ryan is always lauded & sure he's played well but the dude was throwing to Julio Jones, White & Gonzales. I can't tell you how many times I've seen the Jets sh*tty WRs not attack the ball. Go to the video & watch Stafford just throw balls in the air to Calvin Johnson & let him go get it. Just go rewatched the Superbowl and see all the great catches, Vareen, Edelman & Gronk make in the game. I don't think Vareen dropped one ball, making shoe top, one handed, Edeleman had that catch over the middle, literally got his head knocked off, obviously had a concussion but STILL HELD ON TO THE BALL! The QB needs help from his WRs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I think that BM and ED are going to surprise people... This is the first time we have had a legit go get it WR since Rob Moore... Although Marshall is aging... he still produces. And he had Cutler throwing at him... Some could argue that Geno or Fitzy could be better then Cutler. And now Decker doesn't sit out all year with a Hamstring issue and doesn't have to be #1... This could be a lot more special then people realize... Its the first time in a long time that I feel good about our offense... (Not Great, but Good) some is an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage69 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 some is an idiot Is that guy related to"Some people say"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Execution >>>> play calling That said we've probably been stuck with the two worst offensive play callers ever Schotty and Soprano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 As bad as Cutler was last year, he was still 22nd in DVOA, ahead of the likes of Andy Dalton and Kaepernick and just a little behind Tannehill, Alex Smith, and Matthew Stafford. That doesn't mean you should aspire for your QB to be about as good as Jay Cutler, however. It simply means you shouldn't invest big money in basically average QB's like the ones I just listed. Dream bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 As bad as Cutler was last year, he was still 22nd in DVOA, ahead of the likes of Andy Dalton and Kaepernick and just a little behind Tannehill, Alex Smith, and Matthew Stafford. That doesn't mean you should aspire for your QB to be about as good as Jay Cutler, however. It simply means you shouldn't invest big money in basically average QB's like the ones I just listed. Dream bigger. Again... He had two top 10 WRs to throw to and RB that is top 3 in receptions every year yet he is only 22... that is very telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Again... He had two top 10 WRs to throw to and RB that is top 3 in receptions every year yet he is only 22... that is very telling... DVOA attempts to remove variables such as weaponry. It's a representation of an individual player's value per play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 some is an idiot Cutler has been an extreme disappointment in his career... He has had the weapons, the coaches, even the Defense and he still can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 DVOA attempts to remove variables such as weaponry. It's a representation of an individual player's value per play. But it doesn't account for WRs that let balls sail over their head to be intercepted instead of fighting for the ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 DVOA attempts to remove variables such as weaponry. It's a representation of an individual player's value per play. It doesn't show or take into account passes thrown by cutler that should have been intercepted or dropped but were caught and fought for by a great WR. Those numbers don't show up in statistics. DVOA takes into account drops and passed balls that should have been caught. No metric is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It doesn't show or take into account passes thrown by cutler that should have been intercepted or dropped but were caught and fought for by a great WR. Those numbers don't show up in statistics. DVOA takes into account drops and passed balls that should have been caught. No metric is perfect. They get accounted for by sample size. Every QB has dropped picks and WR drops. DVOA is a nice indicator of a QB's value over time. In 2013 Cutler was 13th in DVOA. In 2012 he was 27th. So his performances tend to fall in line. You can do a lot worse, but also shouldn't set your sights on a Cutler as your franchise guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 They get accounted for by sample size. Every QB has dropped picks and WR drops. Nevermind you don't get the point... If you think DVOA is a perfect metric then go on believing... The stats are still skewed by how good BM and AJ are. And he still has a top 3 RB to throw to that helps his averages... Even though they watch every play and rate how successful each play is.... the ones that are still successful even though they are bad decisions, These are not given negatives because the WR made the play.... Now you have Geno throwing the ball the same play and its intercepted.... that will be given a negative score... They were both bad plays but Cutler gets a positive mark and Geno gets a negative because of the WR. I understand what you are saying but understand how the value is measured before you start telling me that i am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 After that they normalize the results to get how they did against the average QB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 They get accounted for by sample size. Every QB has dropped picks and WR drops. DVOA is a nice indicator of a QB's value over time. In 2013 Cutler was 13th in DVOA. In 2012 he was 27th. So his performances tend to fall in line. You can do a lot worse, but also shouldn't set your sights on a Cutler as your franchise guy. I agree that DVOA is better then most metrics... but it does not account for elite WRs and RBs in how you think it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 They get accounted for by sample size. Every QB has dropped picks and WR drops. DVOA is a nice indicator of a QB's value over time. In 2013 Cutler was 13th in DVOA. In 2012 he was 27th. So his performances tend to fall in line. You can do a lot worse, but also shouldn't set your sights on a Cutler as your franchise guy. Read from their own website... Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates -- in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates. That means that when we say, "In 2014, Marshawn Lynch had a DVOA of 23.1%, what we are really saying is “In 2014, Marshawn Lynch, playing in Darrell Bevell’s offensive system with the Seattle offensive line blocking for him and Russell Wilson selling the keeper when necessary, had a DVOA of 23.1%." ... Passing statistics include sacks as well as fumbles on aborted snaps. Receiving statistics include all passes intended for the receiver in question, including those that are incomplete or intercepted. At some point, we hope to be able to determine just how much impact different receivers have on completes vs. incomplete passes, but various regression analyses make it clear that both quarterback and receiver have an impact on whether a pass is complete or not. The word passes refers to both complete and incomplete pass attempts. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Football is a complex game. The relationship between QB-WR is complex as a result. So because Cutler has/had elite weapons, I can't say he's simply an average QB. Got it. The stuff people pick their battles over is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Football is a complex game. The relationship between QB-WR is complex as a result. So because Cutler has elite weapons, I can't say he's simply an average QB. Got it. The stuff people pick their battles over is ridiculous. You started with me... I just finished the battle... I have been saying all along that Cutler is a bad QB and that Geno and Fitz can be better. I also was talking about how much an elite WR (or 2) and an elite RB make a difference in skewing how good (or bad) a QB is. I have been saying all along that you can't judge Geno yet as he has had NO weapons to throw to for 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 I was proving my points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The weapons argument has been played out time and again and has proven to be wrong time and again. Bad QB's look bad no matter who their weapons are (SEE: Sanchez, Mark in Philly last year). All elite weapons can do is take good QB's and make them look great. It can't magically fix bad QB's. That's what you're proposing by making 18 posts about why I'm wrong about Cutler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 The weapons argument has been played out time and again and has proven to be wrong time and again. Bad QB's look bad no matter who their weapons are (SEE: Sanchez, Mark in Philly last year). All elite weapons can do is take good QB's and make them look great. It can't magically fix bad QB's. That's what you're proposing by making 18 posts about why I'm wrong about Cutler. Sanchez had great games... and very bad ones, no better then Cutler in my opinion. Sanchez just has a shorter track record in philly and less weapons. You haven't proven anything yet. And just by throwing out 'the weapons argument has been played out time and again' is lazy and shows that you don't fully understand what you are talking about. I am not saying Cutler is Rick Mirer but saying his numbers are very inflated by result of outstanding players around him. Also Geno's numbers are DEFLATED by the fact that there is no WR that he has had to throw to above an average grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 It seems everyone is ready to dump Geno without giving him the chance to actually prove himself with a decent WR and RB core... maybe even slightly above average WR core. I am not ready to throw him out the door, yet. He hasn't proven to be a great QB yet... but he also hasn't proven to be a bad QB yet... the data is insufficient because of the talent surrounding him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 WRs make a huge difference in the success or failure of a QB. Cutler had great WRs and is an average QB... Also as I was saying not having a reliable WR to throw to in your first few years stunts your growth as a QB because you don't have a goto option and you lose confidence in your abilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 You over-exaggerate how bad Geno's weapons have been to fit your argument. It's ok, we all do stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 People pick their battles? I just battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 You over-exaggerate how bad Geno's weapons have been to fit your argument. It's ok, we all do stuff like that. I haven't, is the point... Decker was hurt more then half the year with an injured hamstring and Kerley was out for 4 games as well... so he was throwing to cast-offs from other teams as his main WRs the whole year... that's not an exaggeration, its the truth. In his rookie year, he was thrown into a situation where nobody expecting him to start and was given Holmes to throw to who got hurt again... so again his top WR was Kerley (who is average at best). Now tell me where was the exaggeration? Cumberland? Be real, Rex built a team around running... and had no WRs ... NONE. I couldn't name a worse WR corp in the NFL in that two year span... I challenge you to. and the backfield was barn burner either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 So I guess Percy Harvin just didn't exist now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 You over-exaggerate how bad Geno's weapons have been to fit your argument. It's ok, we all do stuff like that. Please point out the over-exaggerated point... Cutler has one of the top WR corps to throw to over the last 2 years and a top 3 RB. Geno has far and away the worst WR corps over the last two years and an average at best backfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 So I guess Percy Harvin just didn't exist now? Half the year of a half hearted player that got hurt and can't run routes.... come on. On a team that was already out of it at 1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Half the year of a half hearted player that got hurt and can't run routes.... come on. On a team that was already out of it at 1-6 He was also playing for a new contract; in no way, shape or form was his effort "half-hearted". Just because he was thrust into a bad situation with a bad QB doesn't make him a bad weapon. We clamored for weapons, got one midseason, yet when Geno continued to suck, it wasn't his fault. You "come on" with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptable Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 He was also playing for a new contract; in no way, shape or form was his effort "half-hearted". Just because he was thrust into a bad situation with a bad QB doesn't make him a bad weapon. We clamored for weapons, got one midseason, yet when Geno continued to suck, it wasn't his fault. You "come on" with this stuff. He can't run routes... not the same type of WR as a Boldin, Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall.... and it was 'half-hearted' after the first two games... watch his play... he stopped caring. they were out of it. Plus having a new WR thrust into a situation with a junior level QB doesn't make everything better. The QB is still learning the game and the WR only knows a couple of routes because he doesn't know the whole play book and doesn't run routes well and their timing isn't together because they only have 3 days of practice at most a week to sync up in the middle of a season. These aren't excuses, they are facts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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