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An Interesting take on Q's play. For those who thinks he's a bust.


32EBoozer

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Quinton Coples has been something of a goat around here. Some of us complain about him and some of us defend him. We've seen all sorts of breakdowns of his game and production. His supposed position change has been well covered by just about everyone. Well, seeing as he happens to be one of my favorite topics as well, here's one more stat dump covering everything I could think of to build a narrative for his first three seasons worth of work as a pass rusher.

Once again with the help of Pro Football Focus, here I'll present some pass rushing stats, first a breakdown by halves of seasons for you.

  P Snaps PR Snaps PR % Sk Ht Hu Total P PRP 2012 1st Half 156 152 97.4 2 3 9 14 7.2 2012 2nd Half 144 138 95.8 4 6 5 15 8.9 2013 1st Half 192 186 96.9 1 4 4 9 3.76 2013 2nd Half 284 267 94 5 11 19 35 10.3 2014 1st Half 176 147 83.5 3 4 16 23 12.2 2014 2nd Half 189 163 86.2 4 7 5 16 8

 

The idea that the outside linebacker position change wasn't working was built on that first half of 2013. That's the six games that Coples played coming back from fracturing his ankle. After a strong first game back agains the Bills, Coples proceeded to disappear until his big game in week 9 agains the Saints. Coincidently, that was his first game after coming off the injury report. Since then, a presumably healthy Coples has been a consistenly productive pass rusher (tho he seems to have tailed off towards the end of this past season - more on that later). Sure, he hasn't been elite, but that 10 PRP that he has averaged since November of 2013 is nothing to sneeze at either.

Let's see how he compares to the other edge rushers from his draft class over that time-frame:

# Name Team Passing Snaps Pass Rush Snaps Pass Rush % Sk Ht Hu Total Pressure PRP 1 Quinton Coples NYJ 649 577 88.91 12 22 40 74 10.14 2 Melvin Ingram SD 339 264 77.88 5 7 20 32 9.56 3 Chandler Jones NE 600 559 93.17 12 12 41 65 9.26 4 Bruce Irvin SEA 518 296 57.14 5 9 20 34 9.04 5 Jonathan Massaquoi ATL 355 287 80.85 6 9 17 32 8.89 6 Whitney Mercilus HST 769 660 85.83 8 16 46 70 8.26 7 Olivier Vernon MIA 775 728 93.94 13 15 45 73 7.97 8 Nick Perry GB 290 268 92.41 4 1 21 26 7.65 9 Andre Branch JAX 442 426 96.38 8 7 22 37 6.98 10 Courtney Upshaw BLT 465 237 50.97 1 4 13 18 5.8

 

Yep, there's our boy atop the pass rush rankings, ahead of frequent subjects of why didn't we draft one of them over Coples conversations like Chandler Jones and Melvin Ingram.

So back to that drop off at the end of last season. Here's a week by week breakdown to see just what happened.

Wk Opponent P Snaps PR Snaps PR % Sk Ht Hu Total P PRP 1 OAK 25 17 68 0 0 4 4 17.6 2 @GB 34 33 97.1 1 3 2 6 14.4 3 CHI 35 30 85.7 0 1 1 2 5 4 DET 21 18 85.7 0 0 3 3 12.5 5 @SD 24 22 91.7 0 0 4 4 13.6 6 DEN 18 12 66.7 0 0 1 1 6.3 7 @NE 9 7 77.8 0 0 1 1 10.7 8 BUF 10 8 80 2 0 0 2 25 9 @KC 19 19 100 0 0 0 0 0 10 PIT 22 17 77.3 0 0 0 0 0 12 @BUF 20 14 70 1 1 0 2 12.5 13 MIA 34 33 97.1 0 3 0 3 6.8 14 @MIN 22 21 95.5 0 0 2 2 7.1 15 @TEN 27 26 96.3 1 3 0 4 12.5 16 NE 21 14 66.7 0 0 1 1 5.4 17 @MIA 24 19 79.2 2 0 2 4 18.4

 

That second half run includes two weeks before the bye where he's stonewalled by the likes of Eric Fisher and Kelvin Beachum (perhaps fatigue or just a plain old little slump) as well as a 3 week stretch (13-15) where he's moved back to End to fill in for an injured Mo. During that 3 week stretch Q averaged produced an 8.75 PRP which is pretty much in line with his rookie season production when he was ostensibly playing that End position. Obviously, it's a ridiculously small sample size, but the opposition during those weeks didn't really provide elite competition for him. I think it's safe to safe that Coples is likely more productive playing on the outside than he would be without Mo on the field.

One of the more frustrating things for me to watch was how varied Coples' role became apparently at the expense of pass rushing production. Anecdotally, it seemed like Q was lined up out wide on a receiver or dropping into coverage more than I would like. As a result, I fell on a theory that an increased workload or at least a simplified role would be to Q's benefit. A discussion with our friend Xes&Os led me to investigate my theory with some numbers. Using Q's numbers since November 2013 (so we can assume full health), I found however that there was a negligible negative correlation between total snaps per game (r=-0.08) and PRP and for role or pass rush percentage and PRP - another negative correlation of r=-0.19 which is right there on the border of significance. So perhaps, it's worthwhile to back off that notion. If anything it seems more likely that I am completely off.

Regardless, this season I will be watching Q as closely as ever, altho it's perhaps best to resign ourselves to what we've got - that is to say the most productive edge rusher from the 2012 draft class but still someone who may not ever be much more than a plus starter 

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Q was a top 10 talent in the 2012 draft who everyone agreed was a STEAL at 16.

Kinda like DE Shaun Ellis under Herm beefing up to DT size in his 2nd year stunted his development, Q has also been dealt a similar fate THUS FAR.

#92 was a stalwart on this team and Q will be likewise. Mo was out a few games, Q slipped in and the defensive line DIDN'T MISS A BEAT.

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Q was a top 10 talent in the 2012 draft who everyone agreed was a STEAL at 16.

Kinda like DE Shaun Ellis under Herm beefing up to DT size in his 2nd year stunted his development, Q has also been dealt a similar fate THUS FAR.

#92 was a stalwart on this team and Q will be likewise. Mo was out a few games, Q slipped in and the defensive line DIDN'T MISS A BEAT.

Q dropped because he doesn't like football. Alas.

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With no secondary Que was very high on the list of NFL QB hit's, and hurries.  The new DB's should give him another second to close the deal.  Will be a lot of one on one's as good as the D front is.  Bowles seems like a creative , defensive HC.  Contract year.

 

 



Bottom side...10+ sacks.     Top end 16-20 .  Figure some where in the middle.  Big year for Que

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We get these kinds of threads around this time of the year.

"Q is on the verge of having a breakout year!"

 

Yes we do, and I think we'll keep seeing them until he spends a full season playing a position where he fits and fails to play well.  At that point, it will be time to write him off.  Up to now  he's been largely miscast IMO.

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Yes we do, and I think we'll keep seeing them until he spends a full season playing a position where he fits and fails to play well.  At that point, it will be time to write him off.  Up to now  he's been largely miscast IMO.

 

 

When will that be?  Seems like he's still standing up to me.

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When will that be?  Seems like he's still standing up to me.

 

Great question...curious to see how Bowles uses him but they picked up his option for $7 million so they must think they can get something out of him.

 

One of Rex's biggest screw-ups IMO was moving Q to OLB...shoulda' stayed on the D-line but situation was made even worse by having him at OLB with terrible secondary.

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When he's on the Texans in 2016.

 

Jets exercised his option...due to make $7 mil in '16

 

EDIT: No cap hit if cut though, so if he doesn't impress...he could be gone.

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Q dropped because he doesn't like football. Alas.

And neither did Cumar..

 

I wasn’t the biggest football fan to begin with, but if I was going to play, I didn’t want to play for what was in my mind the worst team, ever,” Martin recalled Monday afternoon in a Midtown steakhouse. “I looked at the Jets as the bottom of the barrel.”

 

 

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2012/07/curtis_martin_never_liked_foot.html

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And neither did Cumar..

I wasn’t the biggest football fan to begin with, but if I was going to play, I didn’t want to play for what was in my mind the worst team, ever,” Martin recalled Monday afternoon in a Midtown steakhouse. “I looked at the Jets as the bottom of the barrel.”

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2012/07/curtis_martin_never_liked_foot.html

Cumar is a weird dude. He's lucky he landed in the hands of a master motivator in Bill Parcells.

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Cumar is a weird dude. He's lucky he landed in the hands of a master motivator in Bill Parcells.

He's also lucky after Parcells left he got his old college coach as the OC.. Before Hackett he was under 4 ypc for half of his first 6 years in the League. With Hackett he was never under 4 and he had Hermie that let him compile with a smile even with 2 high ankle sprains.. :animal0029:

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He's also lucky after Parcells left he got his old college coach as the OC.. Before Hackett he was under 4 ypc for half of his first 6 years in the League. With Hackett he was never under 4 and he had Hermie that let him compile with a smile even with 2 high ankle sprains.. :animal0029:

My brain still hurts from the Herm Era. Rex was awful and embarrassing, but Herm was on another level in terms of stupidity.

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He should be playing tackle.  Size wise he is probably slightly undersized at tackle but he is strong enough.  He does not have the burst to the outside that the good Des have.  He is most effective rushing over guard and center, and he is good at that.  What he is doing at outside LB trying to imitate Tyrell Suggs is beyond me.  The cockamamie schemes of a football genius at work?  Hmmmm.....

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Seems like a good thread to ask: Let's assume it's middle of the season and Sheldon is back and everybody is healthy. With Bowels running multiple fronts. Who are your 2 DTs on a 4 man front? Snacks and Coples, or Snacks and someone else?

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