LIJetsFan Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/7/14/8958035/devin-smith-how-second-round-rookie-wide-receiver-perform Expectations seem to be all over the place for Jets rookie wide receiver Devin Smith. To get an idea of what reasonable expectations are for Smith, I decided to look at the production of rookie wide receivers selected in the second round of the NFL Draft over the last five seasons. (see the link for the chart which didn't paste properly) This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Statistically speaking, this is in the ballpark of where we might hope Smith ends up as a rookie. Our hopes are high for Smith, but player development is more a marathon than a sprint, especially once we get out of the first round. Just look. There are zero seasons with even 70 catches or 900 yards. Even names like Jeffery and Cobb were not lighting it up as rookies. Success might be more about steady improvement in technical aspects of his game as the year progresses more than rookie dominance. The good news for the Jets is they are built in a way to handle Smith coming along slowly. From where we stand now, Smith would probably be the fifth option in the passing game behind Marshall, Decker, Kerley, and Amaro. He doesn't need to dominate as a rookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southparkcpa Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Take Stephen Hill out of the average and it will skyrocket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 38/345 and 2 for Amaro seems right in line. http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/7/14/8958035/devin-smith-how-second-round-rookie-wide-receiver-perform This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJetsFan Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 Take Stephen Hill out of the average and it will skyrocket! Surprisingly, Hill didn't stack up all that poorly as a rook: This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. S. Hill NYJ 21 252 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJetsFan Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 38/345 and 2 for Amaro seems right in line. Yeah I was never as down on Amaro as some others I've read here. Actually wasn't Amaro the best performing rookie TE? Now the fact that he had a lot of drops could be seen as a plus; an easily correctable problem which means good upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I like that Jordan Matthews has had the best rookie season of any 2nd round receiver the past 5 years, including Alshon Jeffery. Both should have been Jet WR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Devin Smith will take playing time from Jeremy Kerley watch and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Devin Smith will take playing time from Jeremy Kerley watch and see. I hope so, and not because of any dislike of Kerley. If a high 2nd rounder cannot take playing time away from a #3 that should be a problem in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I hope so, and not because of any dislike of Kerley. If a high 2nd rounder cannot take playing time away from a #3 that should be a problem in itself. Kerley regressed in 2014 dont know if it was MM's sh*tty offense or all on Kerley himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJetsFan Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Devin Smith's biggest obstacle will be Geno Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Kerley regressed in 2014 dont know if it was MM's sh*tty offense or all on Kerley himself. I think it was a mixture. MM wasnt as good an OC as we hoped. Maybe we should have known given that Andy Reid called the offensive plays though MM was the OC in Phila. Either way, Kerley shouldnt be in a position where his role is "safe". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I think it was a mixture. MM wasnt as good an OC as we hoped. Maybe we should have known given that Andy Reid called the offensive plays though MM was the OC in Phila. Either way, Kerley shouldnt be in a position where his role is "safe". Agree besides we are paying way too much for mediocre play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidelioJet Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I think Smith can have a bigger impact than most expect. He's a different type of receiver. NFL route running won't necessarily be something he's going to be required to excel at this year. He's a deep threat - Fast, can beat people deep and most importantly, is exceptional at tracking down the ball in the air (which is much harder than many people realize) He will be used primarily in this fashion. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of catches but do expect to see nice handful of big plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j4jets Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Surprisingly, Hill didn't stack up all that poorly as a rook: This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. S. Hill NYJ 21 252 3 True, except, his first game skewed his first years start. In the 15 games following that, he went 16/163/1. Average of about 1 catch a game for about 11 yards, and probably a drop a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJetsFan Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 True, except, his first game skewed his first years start. In the 15 games following that, he went 16/163/1. Average of about 1 catch a game for about 11 yards, and probably a drop a game. Thanks for doing the research. After I posted I began thinking the same thing but then I got too lazy to look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
win4ever Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I think the case with Hill was that, he was good enough to beat people one on one with his physical skills, so his first couple of games, teams didn't bother him that much because at that point Holmes was the No. 1 threat. But when teams started to shade a safety over the top, and then play the short routes with the CB covering Hill, he wasn't precise enough in his routes to take advantage. He needed the CB to play without a safety, respecting his speed for him to thrive. On Devin Smith, I think he's going to be used very similar to the way he was used in college to start. For one, as I believe Brian Basset wrote on the Jetsblog, there is a good chance we adopt a spread system similar to the one run by OSU and Urban Meyer. A power run spread, with great receiving threats to create havoc for the defense. I think before too long, Smith is going to over-take Kerley and move into the 3rd WR group and see how defenses play him. If the defense isn't moving the safety over to his area, then he can wreck havoc with the deep routes. If the safety isn't moving over, and they are staying with either Marshall/Decker, then we see the same advantage that Hill enjoyed with his speed, the ability to take advantage of guys playing further back and allowing the short yardage catches. I thought Cooper was the perfect fit for the offense, but once you get past Cooper, Smith comes off as a Cooper lite talent, with both of them being extremely good at tracking passes. It's one of the rare instances where the Jets had a need and actually took a player that fits the need to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Take Stephen Hill out of the average and it will skyrocket! Stephen Hill is Mike Wallace with my hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernJet Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Stephen Hill is Mike Wallace with my hands Ya I screwed the pooch/was wrong w/Hill. Oh well, mistake and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSU_Jet Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Kerley regressed in 2014 dont know if it was MM's sh*tty offense or all on Kerley himself. How can you blame MM for the offense last year when he had GENO SMITH behind center??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Stephen Hill is Mike Wallace with my hands stephen hill might as well have ass cheeks for hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirlancemehlot Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I think Smith can have a bigger impact than most expect. He's a different type of receiver. NFL route running won't necessarily be something he's going to be required to excel at this year. He's a deep threat - Fast, can beat people deep and most importantly, is exceptional at tracking down the ball in the air (which is much harder than many people realize) He will be used primarily in this fashion. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of catches but do expect to see nice handful of big plays. I would hope he becomes a well-rounded, every down WR rather than a home-run only Ted Ginn type. But even L. Coles took two seasons to hit his stride. I think we'll know more towards the end of 2015 once he's had a dozen or so games under his belt. You always hope to see a young player progress and end their first season with an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I think Smith can have a bigger impact than most expect. He's a different type of receiver. NFL route running won't necessarily be something he's going to be required to excel at this year. He's a deep threat - Fast, can beat people deep and most importantly, is exceptional at tracking down the ball in the air (which is much harder than many people realize) He will be used primarily in this fashion. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of catches but do expect to see nice handful of big plays. This isn't college football anymore, and just running fast in a straight line isn't going to cut it. ( not going to have much impact) Most NFL Cb's are just as fast as NFL Wr. Devin Smith in time could develop into an impact Wr, but it's going to take time.( going to have to improve his route running- how much he's willing to work on this aspect of his craft will say a lot what type of Wr he eventually becomes- see the GOAT Jerry Rice). The Jets don't want Devin Smith to be one dimensional, as they are asking him to learn every Wr position. Thats going to slow his learning process down in 2015, but probably makes him a better Wr down the Road. "But according to wide receivers coach Karl Dorrell, Smith discovered upon joining the Jets that he would have to learn not to be so one-dimensional, that he'd have to be versatile enough to play any spot, be it the X or the Z or even the slot. And during rookie minicamp and organized team activities, that proved to be a big adjustment for Smith. "Devin struggled with that," Dorrell told NJ Advance Media in a recent interview. "He came in thinking, 'OK, I'm coming in from a great program, they're going to put me in one spot and play.' Well, you're wrong. You're going to play more than one spot, and you're going to do that on the practice field." Smith was present for most of the Jets' offseason program, but he missed their three-day minicamp two weeks ago as he awaited the birth of his child. (On Wednesday, Smith announced on Twitter that his daughter had been born on June 18.) Smith is expected to be ready to go when things get real at training camp in approximately four weeks. If Jets were looking for a Wr just to catch occasional deep pass, than they have that guy already hakim, or Owusu. The Jets believe Devin Smith can be so much more, and it's just going to take time. 2016 at the earliest he might make an impact. 2015 Kerley will have to shoulder much of the responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FidelioJet Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I would hope he becomes a well-rounded, every down WR rather than a home-run only Ted Ginn type. But even L. Coles took two seasons to hit his stride. I think we'll know more towards the end of 2015 once he's had a dozen or so games under his belt. You always hope to see a young player progress and end their first season with an impact. I didn't mean to say that's all they want from him or all we expect from him - but just that this year he's capable of making a larger impact than a typical rookie - As he learns to become an NFL receiver he can also have a legitimate impact on games due to his current natural skill set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 How can you blame MM for the offense last year when he had GENO SMITH behind center??? MM called the plays a good OC builds an offense around strengths and weaknesses of his players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 This isn't college football anymore, and just running fast in a straight line isn't going to cut it. ( not going to have much impact) Most NFL Cb's are just as fast as NFL Wr. Devin Smith in time could develop into an impact Wr, but it's going to take time.( going to have to improve his route running- how much he's willing to work on this aspect of his craft will say a lot what type of Wr he eventually becomes- see the GOAT Jerry Rice). The Jets don't want Devin Smith to be one dimensional, as they are asking him to learn every Wr position. Thats going to slow his learning process down in 2015, but probably makes him a better Wr down the Road. "But according to wide receivers coach Karl Dorrell, Smith discovered upon joining the Jets that he would have to learn not to be so one-dimensional, that he'd have to be versatile enough to play any spot, be it the X or the Z or even the slot. And during rookie minicamp and organized team activities, that proved to be a big adjustment for Smith. "Devin struggled with that," Dorrell told NJ Advance Media in a recent interview. "He came in thinking, 'OK, I'm coming in from a great program, they're going to put me in one spot and play.' Well, you're wrong. You're going to play more than one spot, and you're going to do that on the practice field." Smith was present for most of the Jets' offseason program, but he missed their three-day minicamp two weeks ago as he awaited the birth of his child. (On Wednesday, Smith announced on Twitter that his daughter had been born on June 18.) Smith is expected to be ready to go when things get real at training camp in approximately four weeks. If Jets were looking for a Wr just to catch occasional deep pass, than they have that guy already hakim, or Owusu. The Jets believe Devin Smith can be so much more, and it's just going to take time. 2016 at the earliest he might make an impact. 2015 Kerley will have to shoulder much of the responsibility. Do the Jets have any good Football players on their roster? I mean, I know they're not the dynasty known as the Oakland Raiders but any good ones on the Jets? Your takes are generally spot on so I'm very eager to hear. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I know that just running fast and catching the deep ball is supposed to be easy, but Hakim got out of college in 2011, has been in the league since 2012 and has not been targeted. The idea that they wasted a pick because he can add something to the offense is laughable. Owusu barely flashed and is not much better. These guys have to elevate their games to reach Jonathan Carter status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Do the Jets have any good Football players on their roster? I mean, I know they're not the dynasty known as the Oakland Raiders but any good ones on the Jets? Your takes are generally spot on so I'm very eager to hear. Thanks! Of course they do, don't be silly. Let's keep the conversation to the topic- Devin Smith. what exactly did I say that you don't agree with about Devin Smith. How is it possible for a player to have a bigger impact than people expect in the first sentence, than at end admit devin Smith isn't going to catch a lot of balls next season. Huh how can a Wr catch only a few passes, and have much of impact. Even to be one dimensional stretch the field deep threat, you're going to have to catch a lot more than a few passes for defenses to account for you. ( open up the field for others players to succeed). Also your Qb has to be able to hit that deep threat when he beats his man. ( See Percy Harvin against D Revis). otherwise what defensive coordinator fears that deep threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Surprisingly, Hill didn't stack up all that poorly as a rook: This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. S. Hill NYJ 21 252 3 He had all those stats in week 1 against the Bills and then dropped everything else, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage69 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Surprisingly, Hill didn't stack up all that poorly as a rook: This is an average of 31 catches, 423 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The medians are 25 catches, 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. S. Hill NYJ 21 252 3 Wes Walker had 35 catches for 740 yds and 3 tds.. That's right in line except Westly avg 21 yds per catch. In year 2 1978 he avg 24.4 yds per catch and made All Pro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southparkcpa Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Wes Walker had 35 catches for 740 yds and 3 tds.. That's right in line except Westly avg 21 yds per catch. In year 2 1978 he avg 24.4 yds per catch and made All Pro.. His 1982 -83 season was so much fun. Good time to be a JETS fan. Imagine he had a real QB to throw to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage69 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 His 1982 -83 season was so much fun. Good time to be a JETS fan. Imagine he had a real QB to throw to him. As good as Rice was he was lucky to have 2 HOF QB's throwing to him for most of his career.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Take Stephen Hill out of the average and it will skyrocket! The law of averages is on our side. Jets 2nd round WR draft picks: 1977: Wesley Walker. One of the best Jets draft picks ever. 8,306 yds, 438 receptions 71 TDs. 13 year career, all as a Jet. 1980: Ralph Clayton. Played a total of 7 career NFL games with 0 receptions. 1990: Reggie Rembert. 36 career receptions. 1 TD. All with Cincinnati. 0 w/Jets. 1994: Ryan Yarborough. played 4 yrs, 2 Jets, 2 Baltimore. career stats: 494 yds 3 TDs 1996: Alex Van Dyke. Started 1 game in his 5 years in the NFL with 219 yds and 3 TDs 2012: Stephen Hill. 45 receptions, 594 yds 4 TDs in his 2 years on the Jets. Hill was better than all the others but Walker. Now that is just pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This isn't college football anymore, and just running fast in a straight line isn't going to cut it. ( not going to have much impact) Most NFL Cb's are just as fast as NFL Wr. Devin Smith in time could develop into an impact Wr, but it's going to take time.( going to have to improve his route running- how much he's willing to work on this aspect of his craft will say a lot what type of Wr he eventually becomes- see the GOAT Jerry Rice). The Jets don't want Devin Smith to be one dimensional, as they are asking him to learn every Wr position. Thats going to slow his learning process down in 2015, but probably makes him a better Wr down the Road. "But according to wide receivers coach Karl Dorrell, Smith discovered upon joining the Jets that he would have to learn not to be so one-dimensional, that he'd have to be versatile enough to play any spot, be it the X or the Z or even the slot. And during rookie minicamp and organized team activities, that proved to be a big adjustment for Smith. "Devin struggled with that," Dorrell told NJ Advance Media in a recent interview. "He came in thinking, 'OK, I'm coming in from a great program, they're going to put me in one spot and play.' Well, you're wrong. You're going to play more than one spot, and you're going to do that on the practice field." Smith was present for most of the Jets' offseason program, but he missed their three-day minicamp two weeks ago as he awaited the birth of his child. (On Wednesday, Smith announced on Twitter that his daughter had been born on June 18.) Smith is expected to be ready to go when things get real at training camp in approximately four weeks. If Jets were looking for a Wr just to catch occasional deep pass, than they have that guy already hakim, or Owusu. The Jets believe Devin Smith can be so much more, and it's just going to take time. 2016 at the earliest he might make an impact. 2015 Kerley will have to shoulder much of the responsibility. Funny, Cooper doesn't have any problem going from Alabama football to NFL football in your tainted mind. In fact he is a matchup nightmare for Revis according to you. Raider players from the draft, every year according to you, np ever have these issues. Going a long way towards explaining why the Raiders are a model franchise, loaded with talent and are consistent winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 As good as Rice was he was lucky to have 2 HOF QB's throwing to him for most of his career.. His third QB was a very productive Gannon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Funny, Cooper doesn't have any problem going from Alabama football to NFL football in your tainted mind. In fact he is a matchup nightmare for Revis according to you. Raider players from the draft, every year according to you, np ever have these issues. Going a long way towards explaining why the Raiders are a model franchise, loaded with talent and are consistent winners. has nothing to do with that,( who the player plays for) but the fact One player way more advance in his route running- can run a full route three ( like a 15 year veteran) , and another needs a lot of work in that area.( one dimensional deep threat at the moment. see Jerry Rice. what separated made him the GOAT wr was his route running, Do you know he was the first guy on the practice field and the last guy off it- perfecting his routes( even late in his career). Route running is that important to the Wr position. again Devin Smith can be very good Wr in time , but it's going to come down to how bad he wants it, and how much time he puts in perfecting his craft- route running. Like what separates a great Qb from an average one. Isn't arm strength but three things. 1. accuracy- can put the football accurately in tight spots 2. anticipation- doesn't have to wait for Receiver to get open, but throws that receiver opens. 3 ability to read NFL defenses quickly- so know where he has the best matchup. So instead when judging positions don't look at the team they play for ,but do they have the skills to be successful at those positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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